Good morning to all, Lets have great day, FYI Timmy's play last night on UCLA was spot on we saw Reverse Line Movement Public was hammering Wash yet line dropped to -2.5. When Timmy hammers all 4 lines unlimited he not messing around! Anyway great call by him! Lets have a great Sat here's some info for you all...
12 p.m. ET: Navy (1-2) at Air Force (3-1)
Both of these military academies are coming off victories. Navy just took down East Carolina 23-20, winning outright as 16.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Air Force just brushed aside Nevada 48-20, covering as 24-point home favorites. This line opened with Air Force listed as a 15-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 15 down to 14, signaling pro money grabbing the points with road dog Navy. According to data from Fan duel The Midshipmen are only receiving 32% bets but 50% money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split in their favor. Navy has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team (1-2) against a sell high "good" ATS team (3-1). Navy also has correlative betting value as a double-digit dog with a line move in their favor in a super low total game (38). The under is only receiving 42% bets but 76% money, a massive sharp bet discrepancy toward a low-scoring game. Historically, military unders have been a smart bet due to both teams running the ball and chewing up the clock. Lean Navy lean Under too if you can get a 38.5
4 p.m. ET: Texas A&M (3-1, ranked 17th) at Mississippi State (3-1)
Both of these SEC rivals are coming off wins. Texas A&M just edged Arkansas 23-21, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Mississippi State just crushed Bowling Green 45-14, pushing as 31-point home favorites. This line opened with Mississippi State listed as a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is unranked Mississippi State favored over ranked Texas A&M? Shouldn't it be the other way around? If it looks fishy, there's usually a reason for it. Only 49% of bets are backing Mississippi State but the Bulldogs are receiving 67% of money. This smart money discrepancy has driven Mississippi State up from -3 to -4, signaling pro money laying the points with the unranked home favorite. The Bulldogs hold a big edge on offense, averaging 37 PPG compared to 21 PPG for the Aggies. Texas A&M will be without leading receiving Ainias Smith due to injury. Lean Miss St
7:30 p.m. ET: NC State (4-0, ranked 10th) at Clemson (4-0, ranked 5th)
This ACC clash features a pair of ranked undefeated teams facing off. NC State just rolled UConn 41-10 but failed to cover as 38.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Clemson just edged Wake Forest 51-45 in double-overtime but failed to cover as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Clemson listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the higher ranked Tigers at home. However, despite 65% of bets taking Clemson, we've seen this line remain stagnant at 7 and even dip down to 6.5 at some shops. This signals a sharp line freeze and/or reverse line movement on the road dog, with pros jumping on NC State plus the points. NC State is only receiving 35% bets but 51% money, a 16% smart money discrepancy. NC State also has value as a contrarian conference dog in a heavily bet primetime game. Clemson holds the edge on offense (44 PPG vs 36 PPG), but NC State features the better defense (allowing 12 PPG vs 21 PPG). Lean NC State
Some other Moves
Illinois +9 to +6.5 vs Wisconsin
Liberty -2 and 0/u 54 down to -3.5 and o/u 44.5
Miami Ohio 48.5 to 50.5
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