Larry Hartstein
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE | 01/22 | 4:30 PM EST
TENNESSEE -188
ANALYSIS: Doubling down on the Titans, as I believe they will dominate in the trenches. I've also bet Tennessee on the full-game spread as well as -2.5 in the first half. Mike Vrabel is a perfect 8-0 when his teams have had eight or more days of rest. And this is a very dynamic offense with Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones all healthy. With Brown and Jones on the field, Ryan Tannehill averages over 9 yards per attempt. Back Tennessee to look like a No. 1 seed and end the Bengals' Cinderella run.
+1805 70-46-1 IN LAST 117 NFL PICKS
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Matt Severance
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY | 01/22 | 8:15 PM EST
GREEN BAY -240
ANALYSIS: It's the sixth road game in eight weeks for the Niners, who are banged up and on a short week. Green Bay is rested and totally healthy. This feels absolutely like the Divisional Round last year when a warm-weather California team (Rams/Niners) with an untrustworthy QB (Jared Goff/Jimmy Garoppolo) lost by two TDs at chilly Lambeau Field. I generally don't go this high on the ML, as it's certainly possible that GB wins by fewer than 6 points, but I'm parlaying with the Under -- which I got early this week at 47.5. I don't expect a ton of points with a low of minus-1 in Green Bay.
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE | 01/22 | 4:30 PM EST
TENNESSEE -188
ANALYSIS: Derrick Henry, AJ Brown and Julio Jones haven't been on the field much together this season due to injury, but when they have Ryan Tannehill has been one of the NFL's highest-rated QBs. They are all healthy for Saturday, and the Bengals' run defense has been awful in the past two games -- that D is now without a key guy up front in Larry Ogunjobi. Meanwhile, no QB was sacked more than Cincinnati's Joe Burrow during the regular season, and the Titans are the only team with three players having at least eight sacks (Harold Landry, Denico Autry, Jeffery Simmons). I'm not touching 3.5, though, so moneyline it is.
+837 15-5 IN LAST 20 NFL PICKS
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Tom Fornelli
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY | 01/22 | 8:15 PM EST
SAN FRANCISCO +6
ANALYSIS: I'm just a sucker for betting the 49ers as underdogs and fading them as favorites. It's a solid plan that's worked well for me, as they're 25-17 ATS as underdogs under Kyle Shanahan compared to 16-24-1 ATS as favorites. Also, these two met earlier in the season, with Green Bay winning 30-28 in San Francisco. While playing at home gives the Packers an added advantage, I don't think they're so much better than the Niners that they should be favored by this much. So I'm going to take San Francisco and then cross my fingers and hope the inevitable Jimmy G mistake doesn't kill me.
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE | 01/22 | 4:30 PM EST
CINCINNATI +3.5
ANALYSIS: I don't trust the Titans. I haven't all season, and I'm not ready to start now. Particularly in the role of favorites. They've done an incredible job of getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC considering all the injuries they've suffered, but I don't think that happens if they play in any other division. The Titans went 5-1 against the AFC South and 3-3 against the rest of the AFC with some confounding losses. I look at this matchup and I see a Bengals team that has the advantage at QB, as well as other key spots offensively, so even if the Titans win, I expect it to be a close one.
+990 25-14-1 IN LAST 40 NFL PICKS
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Hank Goldberg
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY | 01/22 | 8:15 PM EST
SAN FRANCISCO +5.5
ANALYSIS: Right now, San Francisco is my pick to win the Super Bowl, so I love the 49ers at this number. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are sensational, and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is playing winning football. San Francisco also is playing strong defense, which you can't say about Green Bay. The Packers have been prone to give up points. I'll happily take the 49ers.
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE | 01/22 | 4:30 PM EST
TENNESSEE -3.5
ANALYSIS: With all signs pointing to running back Derrick Henry playing on Saturday, the Titans have all of their big-play guys back. That includes receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. I also love Mike Vrabel as a coach. Tennessee already has beaten Kansas City and Buffalo this season, and I would put those teams on a level above Cincinnati. I'm confident in the Titans.
+860 13-4 IN LAST 17 NFL PICKS
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Micah Roberts
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY | 01/22 | 8:15 PM EST
GREEN BAY -5.5
ANALYSIS: I’m hopping off the 49ers trolley I've been riding at Green Bay, where the Packers are 8-0 this season. I have concerns about Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulder and his thumb after an errant throw almost cost them the game last week at Dallas. I think the Packers start fast and put Jimmy G at a disadvantage of having to come back. What I like most about the Packers here is that they’re 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS against 2021 playoff teams this season, including the 30-28 win at San Francisco in Week 3. Take the Packers to cover.
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE | 01/22 | 4:30 PM EST
CINCINNATI +3.5
ANALYSIS: The Bengals have covered the last four meetings with the Titans, winning three of them, the last coming last season in a 31-20 Bengals home win. I like Cincinnati's momentum. The team has covered its last five games with Joe Burrow playing at a super high level, and I think that carries into this week and possibly all the way to the Super Bowl. Pass rusher Trey Hendrickson is cleared to play. I took the points with the Bengals.
+365 8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS
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Micah Roberts
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY | 01/22 | 8:15 PM EST
GREEN BAY -5.5
ANALYSIS: I’m hopping off the 49ers trolley I've been riding at Green Bay, where the Packers are 8-0 this season. I have concerns about Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulder and his thumb after an errant throw almost cost them the game last week at Dallas. I think the Packers start fast and put Jimmy G at a disadvantage of having to come back. What I like most about the Packers here is that they’re 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS against 2021 playoff teams this season, including the 30-28 win at San Francisco in Week 3. Take the Packers to cover.
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE | 01/22 | 4:30 PM EST
CINCINNATI +3.5
ANALYSIS: The Bengals have covered the last four meetings with the Titans, winning three of them, the last coming last season in a 31-20 Bengals home win. I like Cincinnati's momentum. The team has covered its last five games with Joe Burrow playing at a super high level, and I think that carries into this week and possibly all the way to the Super Bowl. Pass rusher Trey Hendrickson is cleared to play. I took the points with the Bengals.
+365 8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS
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Matt Severance
STETSON @ N. ALABAMA | 01/22 | 4:30 PM EST
N. ALABAMA -145
ANALYSIS: I've had some people ask why I don't have picks on Saturdays ... well, need one day off from the grind (and we are never truly off in this business as news largely dictates schedule). I'm not the type to simply "pick" as I truly research every single one. So I can't take five minutes. And I'd like to stay married But now that we are getting close to March Madness, I'll try to do a couple. And obviously when March Madness is here, that's a totally different story. Anyways, Stetson has lost three straight and played without two of its best players Tuesday in an OT home loss to Florida Gulf Coast -- we won on that pick, barely. Those players are Rob Perry (15.9 ppg) and Mahamadou Diawara (6.2 rpg, 5.8 rpg). Reports are Perry is out for a while; can't speak to Diawara, but I like North Alabama sans Perry. The Lions have lost 6 of 7 but all but one of those were away. They are 6-1 at home. Early models have UNA winning by around 4.
+1915 90-59-3 IN LAST 152 CBB PICKS
DETROIT @ NASHVILLE | 01/22 | 8:30 PM EST
NASHVILLE -194
ANALYSIS: Going to play this now as the Red Wings will be in the second of a back-to-back Saturday -- some books will let you bet on next-day games with a team in action night before, some won't -- after hosting Dallas on Friday. The Wings will either have to play Alex Nedejkovic a second straight game in net or likely turn to Calvin Pickard (stream now on Paramount+) because usual No. 2 Thomas Greiss is in protocols. Pickard hasn't played in the NHL this season and wasn't good in six appearances last season. Even if Greiss is cleared ... the Wings are going to be at a massive disadvantage in net. I like this big for Nashville and this will get well over -200 quickly.
+1687 37-17 IN LAST 54 NHL PICKS
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Stephen Oh
UT-ARLINGTON @ LITTLE ROCK | 01/22 | 3:00 PM EST
LITTLE ROCK +2
ANALYSIS: My simulations say the wrong team is favored here. UT-Arlington is prone to committing fouls, ranking 289th in the country in fouls per game (18.4). That bodes well against a Little Rock squad that's a good free throw shooting team (73.4 percent). In a close game with the Trojans at home, I think that'll be the difference. My model says Little Rock covers almost 70 percent of the time and wins by five, so you're getting strong value at this number.
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