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(@shazman)
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Thursday 1/6/22 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB & NBA games

 
Posted : January 6, 2022 2:09 am
(@shazman)
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Vernon Croy

6* #7019 Xander Schauffele -150 over Sam Burns for the ENTIRE TOURNAMENT
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ANDY LANG

(7013) Bryson Dechambeau at (7014) Xander Schauffele
3% Xander Schauffele +105

(7039) Abraham Ancer at (7040) Brooks Koepka
3% Abraham Ancer -105

(7027) Jordan Spieth at (7028) Sungjae Im
3% Sungjae Im -115
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Red Dog Sports

5* Sampdoria -118 (Italy Serie A)
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Jimmy Moore

4* Calgary Flames ML +130 (#59)

Love the Flames at this nice underdog price here since they will be an angry team after their 6-2 loss in their last game to Florida. The Flames are very equal on offense with Tampa Bay but they have a big edge on defense giving up a full half a goal fewer per game. The Flames also have an edge on special teams with a better power play % and a better penalty kill %. Look for the Flames to get this win here at this nice underdog price. Thank you and good luck.
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Posted : January 6, 2022 2:12 am
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The Prez (Wager Talk)

(53) Columbus Blue Jackets at (54) New Jersey Devils
4% Total Over 6.0 (-115)

(63) Winnipeg Jets at (64) Colorado Avalanche
3% Total Over 6.0 (-120)
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NBASELECTION

Memphis Grizzlies - Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons +12
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Aaa
10 hockey goy
Dallas stars
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Greg Peterson

Maryland +11.5 vs Illinois

Utah vs Washington Under 147

Washington State vs Colorado Over 130.5

SMU +2 vs Cincinnati

California +5.5 vs USC

Updated Record 145-122-4
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GoodFella

CBB 3* TRIPLE DIME GAME OF THE WEEK

Wisconsin -2.5
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Paul Leiner

2000*
Ohio St/Ind OVER 137.5
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Big Al

CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE WEEK! - Rice -3.5
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Posted : January 6, 2022 12:37 pm
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Justin Perri

USC @ CALIFORNIA | 01/06 | 11:00 PM EST
USC -5.5
ANALYSIS: Last basketball game of the night and we're going to be betting it. I'm not sure why this line is only 5.5 but it is too low. My model makes this 8.5 points in favor of USC. Cal has been playing well but USC is just too good to only need a six point win to cover. Cal has lost its last six games against USC, the smallest margin of those games has been 8 points, 18 has been the average deficit. History should repeat. Take USC here.

MONTANA @ E. WASHINGTON | 01/06 | 9:00 PM EST
E. WASHINGTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: This Big Sky Conference game is projected to be a tight game, but the wrong team is favored. My simulations are showing Eastern Washington should be favored by 2 points in this matchup. Montana has just one road win in six games so far this year and it's pretty clear that most other models also think this game should see Eastern Washington win. Grab the extra point and a half on the home underdog.

APP. ST. @ SOUTH ALABAMA | 01/06 | 8:00 PM EST
SOUTH ALABAMA -5
ANALYSIS: I'm getting a solid edge on South Alabama in this matchup and I think it passes the eye test as well. My model makes this a 7.5 point difference between these teams and having seen some recent Appalachian results, I would have to agree that this line is a bit small. South Alabama has been strong at home and Appalachian has struggled on the road. Take USA to get it done.

+160 6-4 IN LAST 10 CBB PICKS
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Matt Severance

NEW ORLEANS @ MCNEESE ST. | 01/06 | 2:30 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -115
ANALYSIS: If this were a true home game for McNeese State, I'd probably pass but the two Louisiana schools are playing in ... Katy, Texas, as part of the Southland Conference Men's Basketball Tip-Off Tournament. Neither is very good but KenPom ranks New Orleans 19 spots better and Sagarin 36 spots. The best player on the floor will be the Privateers' Derek St. Hilaire (18.2 ppg). For the first time in school history, New Orleans has five players 6-foot-8 or taller. McNeese State doesn't have that type of size.

+1388 57-38-3 IN LAST 98 CBB PICKS

GOLDEN ST. @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/06 | 8:00 PM EST
UNDER 220
ANALYSIS: It's likely that a struggling and banged-up Steph Curry sits this game out and when that becomes official, I'd imagine this total drops a few points at least subtracting his 26.8 ppg. As good as Curry is, that actually helps the Dubs defensively a bit and they already are No. 1 in scoring defense.

+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 NBA O/U PICKS

MINNESOTA @ BOSTON | 01/06 | 7:00 PM EST
BOSTON -166
ANALYSIS: Minnesota is a very good team, but No. 1 goaltender Cam Talbot is out Thursday as are a couple of key forwards. Kaapo Kahkonen is a downgrade in net. The Wild are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Boston is pretty healthy and on a three-game winning streak. Jeremy Swayman has allowed just one goal in two of his past three outings. I figure this ML grows a bit tomorrow barring a COVID issue on the B's.

CALGARY @ TAMPA BAY | 01/06 | 7:00 PM EST
TAMPA BAY -151
ANALYSIS: Yep, I have to agree with John Bollman here as it does appear that former Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov will return from injury sooner than expected -- that the team just waived Riley Nash opens up a roster spot for Kucherov. What a huge emotional boost alone that will be for the home side. The only worry with picking this early is that the Bolts might start backup Brian Elliott in net, but I see no reason why it won't be Andrei Vasilevskiy as it's not part of a back-to-back. He has a 1.85 GAA at home.

PITTSBURGH @ PHILADELPHIA | 01/06 | 7:00 PM EST
PHILADELPHIA +1.5
ANALYSIS: I completely understand why the Penguins are such heavy favorites as they are on a nine-game winning streak and the Flyers are still quite short-handed due to COVID. However, this is a rivalry game and the Pens had to expend a lot of energy Wednesday night in rallying to beat St. Louis. Philly netminder Carter Hart has allowed three goals or fewer in five straight starts. If he only gives up three here, I absolutely believe the Flyers cover on the puckline at -130. Hart is usually quite a bit better at home.

+1113 15-3 IN LAST 18 NHL PICKS
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Posted : January 6, 2022 12:44 pm
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Power Sports

8* Tarleton State -3.5
8* Under 210 Celtics/Knicks
10* Golden State -3
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sean murphy

cbb app st
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Scott Spreitzer

5* Panthers -125
3* Juventus -150
2* Vegas -150
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Pure Lock

10* Texas San Antonio -3
10* Golden State Warriors -6.5 (line dropped to -2.5)
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Dr. Chuck

BRUNCHIN & BALLIN BEATDOWN

Date/Time: Jan 6 2022 2:30 PM EST

4% New Orleans -120 (#306161)

Very sneaky little spot here where I don't NEED a ton more analysis than the fact the books have this listed where it appears as though McNeese is the home team per se….just simply New Orleans listed on top and McNeese on bottom…of a game being played today in Katy, TX at the Merrell Center.

Both Louisiana clubs are traveling today for an early afternoon tip off at a neutral site…for a conference matchup …of which each team will ALSO host…thus 3 meetings this season…all relatively soon actually. New Orleans is the better team ..by a solid margin honestly…but a margin KenPom doesn't agree…and the neutral court aspect on a matchup between 2 teams separated by less than 20 spots in his ratings…

The Privateers have the better roster, better coach (by far), have a large EFG% advantage, solid turnover differential advantage, AND McNeese State is the ACTUAL worst FT shooting team in the country ..not ONLY do they put the opponent there at a 40 FTA/FGA rate…they shoot <57% from the line themselves….with their top shooter barely above 60% himself!

In a season where the conference is legitimately “up for grabs” with the defections of every NCAAT representative back to 2018….sure Nicholls State looks like.the class….but Slessinger's team beats this type of opponent on a neutral court 10 out of 10….and we just have to pay THIS for a ML?!

Thank you sir may I have another?!

McNeese doesn't really have a player as good as ANY of the 3 top Privateers…in Green, Kirkland, and especially St. Hilaire….and the spread at -1.5 or -2 or even -2.5 is fine by me….

But at just -120 on the ML in this spot….it is 10 UNIT-ESQUE NO DOUBT!!!
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Posted : January 6, 2022 2:27 pm
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Matt Severance

FLORIDA @ DALLAS | 01/06 | 8:30 PM EST
UNDER 6.5
ANALYSIS: Florida is missing its two Sams -- Reinhart and Bennett -- who have combined for 43 points, and Sergei Bobrovsky has a better road GAA (2.32) than at home (2.51). Stars counterpart Braden Holtby has a 2.16 GAA at home and Dallas is a mediocre offensive team at 2.79 goals per game. The Under is 9-4 in the Panthers' last 13 road games. It's 11-3 in the Stars' past 14 overall.

+1113 15-3 IN LAST 18 NHL PICKS
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John Bollman

COLUMBUS @ NEW JERSEY | 01/06 | 7:00 PM EST
NEW JERSEY -160
ANALYSIS: Blue Jackets will be without their top goalie in Elvis Merzlikins again and they will be without many other key players as well. Devils are missing a couple key players too including Dougie Hamilton and Pavel Zacha, but Nico Hischier is expected to be back. Devils have actually been playing very well lately winning 3 of their 4 games since the break and they are much better at home at 8-7-3. The Blue Jackets are 5-10-0 on the road and they have lost 6 of their last 8 games straight up. Mackenzie Blackwood is much better at home going 5-3-2 with a 2.48 GAA. I hate laying this much juice on the Devils, but it’s worth the squeeze here. Take the Devils at home.

CALGARY @ TAMPA BAY | 01/06 | 7:00 PM EST
TAMPA BAY -150
ANALYSIS: Lightning have struggled lately but Andrei Vasilevsky now has a couple games under his belt after his bout with COVID, and Nikita Kucherov could come off the IL tonight. Lightning are 11-3-3 at home and the Flames are pretty good on the road at 13-5-2 but they have lost 5 of their last 7 games overall. Jacob Markstrom has struggled since the return allowing 4, 1, and 6 goals in his last three games. This line will rise when Kucherov is announced to return and all signs are pointing towards that, so take the Lightning at home.

+410 4-0 IN LAST 4 NHL ML PICKS
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Micah Roberts

OHIO ST. @ INDIANA | 01/06 | 7:00 PM EST
INDIANA -160
ANALYSIS: The home team has covered the last four meetings, and I like that stat tonight with Indiana, which is 9-0 at home so far. The Buckeyes come in on a five-game win streak (3-2 ATS) while Indiana lost at Penn State in an ugly game on Sunday. Indiana takes smart shots (shooting 48.3 percent), but stingy defense makes the Hoosiers very good; opponents are shooting 35.4 percent, third best in the nation. I’m on the Hoosiers to win, moneyline.

+65 2-1 IN LAST 3 CBB PICKS
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TheVegasShark:

(NCAAM Whale) 30* San Francisco +3 (-110) * 2:00 PM Eastern *

(NCAAM Whale) 30* Wisconsin -3 (-110) * 9:00 PM Eastern *

(NCAAM Whale) 30* California +6 (-110) * 11:00 PM Eastern *
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Ben Burns

cbb roast wright st 7
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Bryan Leonard

3% - Eastern Washington +2.5
3% - Iowa +3
3% - UAB +2
3% - Georgia St -8
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WUnderdog

CBB

Southern Mississippi +4.5 vs texas san antino
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ZITI Sports
COLLEGE HOOPS
Rice -4.5 -110 Middle Tenn. St. (8:00 PM)
Chicago State +10 -110 Seattle (8:00 PM)
Grand Canyon vs. UTRGV OVER 142.5 -110 (8:00 PM)
Montana State vs Idaho OVER 145.5 -110 (9:00 PM)
SMU Mustangs vs Cincinnati OVER 142.5 -110 (9:30 PM)

NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning -170 Calgary Flames (7:05 PM)
Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche OVER 6 -130 (9:05 PM)
Nashville Predators -134 Los Angeles Kings (10:35 PM)

NBA
Detroit Pistons vs. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 218 -110 (8:10 PM)
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Adam Trigger

Cinci -2.5
Bryant +8

Both 4%
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Posted : January 6, 2022 4:27 pm
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IC

NCAAB

7 Unit Play. Take Under 144.4 Long Beach State vs. UCLA (Thursday @ 7:30pm est)

4 Unit Play. Take Washington State +1.5 over Colorado (Thursday @ 9pm est)

4 Unit Play. Take Washington +9.5 over Utah (Thursday @ 9pm est).
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Carmine Bianco

3%
Chicago Blackhawks at Arizona Coyotes
REGULATION Chicago Blackhawks +100

3%
Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars
Total Over 6.0 (-116)

3%
Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils
Total Over 6.0 (-118)
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Matt Howe

OHIO ST. @ INDIANA | 01/06 | 7:00 PM EST
INDIANA -170
ANALYSIS: This line opened at -2 in favor of the Hoosiers and has since climbed to -4, which is why I'm sticking to the moneyline on this play. Indiana is coming off a road loss to Penn State in which the Hoosiers shot just 4-of-17 from the 3-point line (23.5 percent), well below their season average of 36.1 percent. Ohio State ranks No. 123 in the country at defending the 3-point line, so I expect the Hoosiers to have a better shooting performance tonight. The Buckeyes are is coming off an overtime win at Nebraska in which they made 16-of-34 3-pointers. That kind of shooting is unsustainable. I'm backing Indiana at Assembly Hall in a must-win game to avoid falling to 1-3 in Big Ten play.

+399 15-10 IN LAST 25 CBB PICKS
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Andrew McInnis

5% NHL Regulation Wager - Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning

Play: REGULATION Tampa Bay Lightning +110

 
Posted : January 6, 2022 6:09 pm
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Posts: 57384
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Worlds Worst Picker CBB
Peabody’s picks
Ohio st
Wisconsin

We take
Indiana
Iowa

The fade stays hit with it going 2-1 last night
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Pure Lock

10* Texas San Antonio -3
10* Golden State Warriors -6.5 (line dropped to -2.5)
adding

10*Florida Panthers -134
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Ben Burns

America East GOY

Vermont
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Your Daily Capper

NCAAB: 1 Unit ( 7:00 PM )
Indiana Moneyline

NCAAB: 1 Unit ( 8:00 PM )
North Texas Moneyline

NBA: 1 Unit ( 8:00 PM )
Pelicans Moneyline
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Sports Analytics 24/7

NCAAB
Maryland +11 (7:00)
North Texas ML -130 (8:00)

NBA
Knicks/Celtics U209* -120 (7:30)
~Buy half point(s) to get to 209

$Bet to win 1.5 units on *. Bet to win 1 unit on other individually.
Documented; NCAAB season (57-32, 16-4 run), 'premium' plays (55-30, 14-5 run)
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H&H Sports
NBA is a Pass

CBB
3* Wisconsin -150 (Moneyline)
3* Texas San Antonio -4
2* Ohio State +4
2* SMU +3
2* USC -5

NHL - Icecrusher
3* Boston -150
2* Pittsburgh/Philadelphia Over 6
2* Winnipeg/Colorado Over 6.5
1* NY Rangers +135
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Matt Severance

COLUMBUS @ NEW JERSEY | 01/06 | 7:00 PM EST
UNDER 6.5
ANALYSIS: I always pick Under 6.5 goals ... but I'll admit I pondered this one because the Jackets' Joonas Korpisalo has been so shaky of late. He's just not this bad, though, and has been better away from home. The Devils are missing two key forwards in protocols in Pavel Zacha and Andreas Johnsson plus excellent offensive defenseman Dougie Hamilton. Goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood has been much better at home.

+1113 15-3 IN LAST 18 NHL PICKS

GOLDEN ST. @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/06 | 8:00 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS 130
ANALYSIS: This spread dropped from Warriors -6.5 to -3 with Steph Curry likely out ... and he is. If the full-strength Pelicans can't win this game against a Dubs team sans Curry and in the second of a back-to-back, well I give up on New Orleans until Zion returns (next season).

+217 22-15 IN LAST 37 NBA ML PICKS
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Zack Cimini

SO. MISS @ UTSA | 01/06 | 8:00 PM EST
SO. MISS +4
ANALYSIS: UTSA may have more game experience, but its roster is struggling to adjust from last year’s departures. I'm taking the Golden Eagles plus the points.

UT MARTIN @ TENNESSEE ST. | 01/06 | 7:00 PM EST
TENNESSEE ST. -5
ANALYSIS: Both UT-Martin and Tennessee State have been heavily impacted with canceled games over the past month. Tennessee State (5-7) is better than its sub .500 record suggests. The Tigers have won four of their last five games, and that trend should continue in their first conference game. I'm taking Tennessee State.

+201 13-10-1 IN LAST 24 CBB PICKS
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Posted : January 6, 2022 7:33 pm
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