Tuesday 12/28/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB & NBA games
IC
3* Air Force +1.5
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DavidN
2 units- West Virginia +5
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Marc Lawrence
AF
TT
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Dave Cokin - 1st Responder Bowl
5% Air Force +1'
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Gianni the Greek
CFB
237) Houston +2.5…(4%)
239) Under 55 Louisville-Air Force…(4%)
241) Texas Tech +10…(3%)
BIG MOVE: NC State -125 (5%)
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MARCO D'ANGELO
4% HOLIDAY BOWL
NC State -2.0 (-110)
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THE PREZ
Game: (69) Montreal Canadiens at (70) Tampa Bay Lightning
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (-105)
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Greg Shaker
3 NC State -1
3 Air Force/Louisville O54.5
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Tom Stryker
UCLA
West Virginia
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JM Sports
10% Bowl GOY
Minnesota -5
10* #246 Minnesota Golden Gophers (-5) over West Virginia Mountaineers
Matt Severance
WEST VIRGINIA @ MINNESOTA | 12/28 | 10:15 PM EST
MINNESOTA -3.5
ANALYSIS: Guaranteed Rate Bowl -- I liked Minnesota in this game regardless, but now that West Virginia star running back Leddie Brown (nearly 1,300 yards from scrimmage, 14 TDs) is skipping the bowl, well, this number is only going to go up. When he rushed for 100 yards this year, WVU was 5-0. Unlike in the NFL with injury/COVID, these bowl spreads won't change immediately so you can still get them if you pounce quickly.
+1033 53-38-1 IN LAST 92 CFB PICKS
+380 6-2 IN LAST 8 WVU PICKS
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Jeff Hochman
UCLA @ NC STATE | 12/28 | 8:00 PM EST
NC STATE -2
ANALYSIS: HOLIDAY BOWL -- The Bruins went 3-0 SU and ATS to finish the season strong. A plus-50.5 ATS margin in those three games looks impressive. UCLA was 2-4 against other bowl teams, getting outgained in four of the six contests. The Bruins are ranked 125th in red-zone defense. North Carolina State, which has the better QB and defense, is motivated to reach double digits in victories for just the second time in school history. The Wolfpack went 4-3 against fellow bowlers, outgaining five of their seven foes. The Bruins will be without DL Otito Ogbonnia (draft prep) and DB Qwuantrezz Knight (COVID-19). NC State went 4-1 against winning teams this season, while UCLA was 1-3. The Bruins are just 6-12 in bowl games since 1993. Take the Wolfpack.
AIR FORCE @ LOUISVILLE | 12/28 | 3:15 PM EST
AIR FORCE +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Falcons have the significantly better defense line (No. 37 vs. 98) and overall defense (No. 47 vs. 71). That travels well this time of year. Teams have fits trying to contain the Falcons' run-heavy offense. When the Falcons do throw, they average 9.5 yards per pass. Louisville was last seen allowing 52 points, 362 rushing yards, and 511 total yards in a loss against Kentucky. I love the fact that Air Force is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS on turf this season, while Louisville is just 4-5 SU & 4-5 on turf. The Falcons have a fast, ball-hawking defense (19.1 ppg) that performs well on turf. Finally, Air Force is 5-1 ATS as a neutral-field underdog of 3 points or less since 1993.
+760 12-4 IN LAST 16 CFB PICKS
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Mike Tierney
AIR FORCE @ LOUISVILLE | 12/28 | 3:15 PM EST
OVER 55
ANALYSIS: FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- When facing opponents often unfamiliar with its triple-option offense, Air Force engages in high-scoring bowl games. In the past decade, four postseason contests (out of six) resulted in 83, 62, 71 and 66 points. Louisville’s only bowl with coach Scott Satterfield finished at 66 points. Both sides have effective ground games — the Falcons’ is the top-ranked in FBS — and Cardinals QB Malik Cunningham is a dynamic playmaker.
AIR FORCE @ LOUISVILLE | 12/28 | 3:15 PM EST
OVER 55
ANALYSIS: FIRST RESPONDER BOWL -- When facing opponents often unfamiliar with its triple-option offense, Air Force engages in high-scoring bowl games. In the past decade, four postseason contests (out of six) resulted in 83, 62, 71 and 66 points. Louisville’s only bowl with coach Scott Satterfield finished at 66 points. Both sides have effective ground games — the Falcons’ is the top-ranked in FBS — and Cardinals QB Malik Cunningham is a dynamic playmaker.
+1295 24-10 IN LAST 34 CFB O/U PICKS
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Matt Severance
UCLA @ NC STATE | 12/28 | 8:00 PM EST
NC STATE -130
ANALYSIS: HOLIDAY BOWL (SAN DIEGO) -- When UCLA ran for 200 yards this season, it was unbeaten. I don't see that happening against a Wolfpack defense that ranked No. 3 in the ACC in allowing 124.3 ypg on the ground. Defensively, the Bruins are down a couple of starters due to opt-outs/COVID. Frankly, I also simply don't trust the mediocre Pac-12 -- the league may well go winless in bowls again this season.
+803 54-41-1 IN LAST 96 CFB PICKS
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Mike Tierney
HOUSTON @ AUBURN | 12/28 | 12:00 PM EST
HOUSTON +2
ANALYSIS: Motivation is tough to read for bowl teams, but the needle must be leaning toward “E” for Auburn. The Tigers lost their last four straight-up, most recently a deflating four-overtime affair against Alabama. Three starting offensive linemen are out for various reasons, and the fill-ins must gear up against the No. 5 sacks defense in the FBS. Two Tigers on defense will bypass the game, compared to one Cougar (CB Marcus Jones), all turning to NFL Draft prep. Houston covers.
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 CFB ATS PICKS
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Max Gorenstein
NOTRE DAME @ PITTSBURGH | 12/28 | 8:00 PM EST
UNDER 127.5
ANALYSIS: Both of these teams play with a very slow pace. Kenpom ranks the Fighting Irish 274th in pace and the Panthers 334th in pace. The Irish have a terrible road offense. They are averaging just 61.7 PPG on just 40.2 percent from the field on the road. The Panthers also have a terrible offense. They are averaging 60.7 PPG this season. The under has cashed in four of the Irish’s last five games and the under has cashed in eight of the Panthers’ 12 games this season. This game is going to be played at a very slow paced and stay under this low total.
+1287 52-36 IN LAST 88 CBB PICKS
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Justin Perri
FRESNO ST. @ BOISE ST. | 12/28 | 9:00 PM EST
UNDER 118.5
ANALYSIS: This number might feel a low but it's still probably higher than it should be. In past years this matchup has gotten totals between 136 and 141, but both teams bring a strong defense this season and we are seeing Vegas give them respect with this 118.5 number. Boise State brings a top 20 defense in efficiency and Fresno isn't far behind, looking like a top 50 defensive unit. Both teams are also profitable on Unders this season, with Fresno 4-8 O/U and Boise 3-9 O/U. Fresno loves to slow down the pace and Boise isn't going to object much, so the Under is the play here. I have this at 113.5 and would play it down to 117.5.
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Zack Cimini
HOUSTON @ AUBURN | 12/28 | 12:00 PM EST
HOUSTON +2
ANALYSIS: BIRMINGHAM BOWL -- Houston’s strength of schedule has cast doubt on its overall record of 11-2. As usual, the SEC gets the nod ATS, but look for the Tigers' end-of-season issues to arise. Look for the Cougars to adjust to Auburn’s defense and hand the Tigers their fifth straight loss.
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Nick Borrman (WagerTalk) 5% top play:
Game: 2-Leg England Premier League Parlay
Date/Time: Dec 28 2021 3:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: PARLAY Leicester/Liverpool OVER 2.5 & Manchester City ML (-150)
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nbaundertips
Sacramento Kings – Oklahoma City Thunder
Under 218
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Al McMordie
#1 NCAA FOOTBALL GAME OF THE MONTH! - Louisville -1
92% ATS NCAA FOOTBALL ELITE INFO! - NC ST -1
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Vegas Sports Informer
5* Auburn -2.5
4* MN Over 45
3* Air Force +1.5
3* UCLA +2
2* MS St Over 58.5
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WUnderdog
NCAA Bowl
Houston vs Auburn 51.5 Under
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Tomas Sports
Auburn ml
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Adam Trigger
Auburn ML (4%)
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Greg Petetson Newsletter Bets Bets
Pittsburgh +4 vs Notre Dame
Fresno State vs Boise State Over 118
North Alabama vs Gonzaga Over 142
Northwestern State vs Baylor Under 145.5
Lehigh +21.5 vs Maryland
Updated Season Record 124-102-4
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Pointwise Phones
4 Air Force
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Pickersmx
Mushu
200* Dimes NCAAF
NCST -ML
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Worlds Worst Picker Bowls 2 early ones
Peabody’s picks
Auburn
Air Force
We take
Houston
Louisville
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Jack Jones
20* AF +1.5
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BOBSPORTSBETS
Auburn ml
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Northcoast Late Phone:
4* Mississippi St (-10) Texas Tech (Liberty Bowl) 6:45pm ESPN
3* Over 54.5 First Responder Bowl (Louisvlle/Air Force) 3:15pm ESPN (Marquee Triple)
Top Opinions:
Auburn (-1.5) Houston (Birmingham Bowl) 12pm ESPN
Minnesota (-4.5) West Virginia (Guaranteed Rate Bowl) 10:15pm ESPN
Regular Opinions:
Marquee Double: Under 51.5 Birmingham Bowl (Houston/Auburn) 12pm ESPN
Marquee Double: Over 45 Guaranteed Rate Bowl (West Virginia/Minnesota) 10:15pm ESPN Marquee Single: Under 58.5 Liberty Bowl (Texas Tech/Mississippi St) 6:45pm ESPN Marquee Single: Under 60.5 Holiday Bowl (NC State/UCLA) 8pm FOX
Louisville (PK) Air Force (First Responder Bowl) 3:15pm ESPN
UCLA (+2) NC State (Holiday Bowl) 8pm FOX
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Lee Sterling
25 Miss State, Minny
20 AF, NC St
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Thank you so very much Shazam…your the best
H&H Sports
CFB
Triple Dime - Air Force/Louisville Over 54.5
Double Dime - Houston -118
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Pickswise Sports
CFB 3* Best Bet - Minnesota -5
2* Houston/Auburn Under 51
2* Mississippi State/Texas Tech Over 57.5
2* NC State -135
2* NC State/UCLA Over 60
NBA 3* Best Bets
Lakers -5
Timberwolves +3.5
CBB 3* Best Bets
Notre Dame -3.5
Incarnate Word +35
2* Texas Tech/Alabama State Under 136
2* Gonzaga/North Alabama Over 143
2* Baylor/Northwestern State Over 143
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Bob Balfe
Mississippi St -9.5
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Strike Point Sports (SPS)
College Basketball
2u Norte Dame -4
3u Boise State -4.5
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IC
NCAAB -36.9u (22-25)
4 - Pittsburgh +4 vs Notre Dame
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Doug Upstone NBA
5U Miami -6.5
2U Oklahoma City +5.5
Season: 27 - 36 / -40.6U
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