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Saturday Sharp Action

Saturday Sharp Action 1 month 2 weeks ago #537476

  • Jimmythegreek
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Iowa State -7 vs. Oklahoma State
Wisconsin -3.5 vs. Purdue
Air Force -3 vs. San Diego State
UCLA -1 vs. Oregon

3 p.m. ET: Wisconsin at Purdue

These Big Ten rivals are playing well as of late. Wisconsin (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) has won two straight and just edged Army 20-14, although the Badgers failed to cover as 14-point home favorites. Similarly, Purdue (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) has won two of their last three and just shocked then 2nd-ranked Iowa 24-7, easily winning outright as 11.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is shocked Wisconsin is favored, after all Purdue is ranked 25th in the country and Wisconsin is unranked. This looks like a no-brainer to take Purdue getting points at home. However, we've actually seen the line move further to Wisconsin (-3 to -3.5) despite a lopsided majority of tickets backing Purdue. This indicates wiseguy money buying low on the contrarian favorite Badgers.

Lean Wisconsen

3:30 p.m. ET: Oklahoma State at Iowa State

This Big 12 showdown features one of the most perplexing lines of the day. Oklahoma State (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) enters undefeated and ranked 8th in the country. The Cowboys just upset Texas 32-24 last week, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Iowa State (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) is unranked but has won two straight games and three of their last four, most recently taking down Kansas State 33-20 last week, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the oddsmakers are crazy for making the Cyclones such a big favorite and they're rushing to the window to grab the points with undefeated Oklahoma State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen Iowa State move from -6.5 to -7. This signals sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" line movement on the Cyclones, with pros backing the fishy contrarian favorite. Unranked home teams against ranked opponents are 25-18 ATS (58%) this season.

Lean Iowa St

3:30 p.m. ET: Oregon at UCLA

Both of these Pac 12 rivals are looking to stay atop the conference standings. Oregon (5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS) is ranked 10th in the country and just edged California 24-17, although the Ducks failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. On the other side, UCLA (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) is unranked but has won two straight, beating Washington 24-17 last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened at a virtual pick'em. Right off the bat, this opener speaks volumes. If Oregon is ranked and UCLA isn't, then why is the line a coin-flip? Shouldn't Oregon be favored? The public is loading up on the Ducks, yet we've seen UCLA move to -1. Some books have inched as high as UCLA -2 throughout the week. Essentially all liability is on UCLA even though the public is all over the Ducks. This signals sharp action backing the Bruins at home. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 58 to 60.5.

Big Play UCLA

More Saturday sharp Moves
Cincinnati -27 to -28 at Navy
LSU 10.5 to 7.5 at Mississippi
Pittsburgh -3 to -3.5 vs Clemson
Tennessee 27.5 to 25.5 at Alabama
Ohio State -19 to -21 at Indiana
Michigan -21.5 to -23.5 vs Northwestern
NC State -2.5 to -3.5 at Miami
Vanderbilt 23 to 20.5 vs Mississippi State
Miami Ohio 6 to 4 at Ball State
Colorado 9.5 to 8.5 at California
Boston College 6.5 to 5 at Louisville
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