Monday 10/4/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NCAAF, MLB & NFL games.
HITMAN | NFL Sides - Monday, Oct 4 2021 8:15PM
280 LAC -3.0 (-110)Bookmaker vs 279 LVR double-dime bet
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SportsLine Projection Model
Chargers 30, Raiders 25
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Vegas Sports Informer
6* Chargers -3
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IC
3-Unit Play. Chargers -3 Over Raiders
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Marc Lawrence Preferred Picks MNF play is.......Las Vegas Raiders
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Randy Chambers - SportsChatPlace
NFL - Raiders +3.5
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Pickswise Sports
NFL
2* Chargers -3
1* Over 51
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greenpunter us
American Football NFL
Los Angeles Chargers – Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers -3.5
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Micah Roberts
LAS VEGAS @ L.A. CHARGERS | 10/04 | 8:15 PM EDT
LAS VEGAS +3
ANALYSIS: The undefeated Raiders come to Los Angeles with the No. 1-ranked offense (471 ypg) featuring the No. 1 passing game (379 ypg). RB Josh Jacobs should be back to take advantage of the worst defense against the run (170 ypg allowed). The Raiders won at SoFi Stadium last season, 31-26, and they will always have their share of fans at this venue. It will basically be a Raiders home game. Take the value with the underdog.
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R.J. White
LAS VEGAS @ L.A. CHARGERS | 10/04 | 8:15 PM EDT
L.A. CHARGERS -3
ANALYSIS: The strength of the surprisingly good Las Vegas defense is on the line, but they've gotten to feast on some pretty bad units over the last few weeks and now have to face up against another much improved unit in the Chargers O-line. I don't think they'll be able to slow down the Chargers passing offense much, if at all, but I don't think that applies on the other side of the ball, as L.A. managed to hold the Cowboys and Chiefs to 251 passing yards or less in back-to-back weeks. Teams have been able to run on the Chargers, but will the Raiders commit to that for 60 minutes? I'm not sure they will, and if forced to pass, I like the Chargers' chances.
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both-to-score
CHILE: Primera Division
Huachipato – Curico Unido
Both to score : YES @ 1.85
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FOOTBALL JESUS
OVER in MNF Raiders/Chargers
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MNF Sharp Action
8:15 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
This Monday Night showdown features a pair of AFC West rivals who are fighting for the top spot in the division. The Raiders (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are undefeated and just took down the Dolphins 31-28, although Vegas failed to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Chargers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) just went into Arrowhead and shocked the mighty Chiefs 30-24, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. The Raiders are 18 in point differential. Los Angeles is 7.
This line opened with the Chargers listed a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. Typically, teams get about 3-points (maybe a little less) for home field advantage. So with the Chargers -3 at home the books are pretty much saying these teams are dead even and the line would be a pick'em on a neutral field. Some early money leaned Chargers, driving Los Angeles up from -3 to -3.5. But once the hook was available, pros pounced on the Raiders 3.5, causing most books to fall back to 3.
Vegas matches several betting systems. Short road dogs 6 or less are 19-5 ATS (79 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 7-4 ATS this season and 35-23 ATS (60 percent) the past two seasons. The Raiders also have value as a divisional dog (57 percent last two seasons). Divisional matchups benefit dogs as the built in familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. Vegas is also a "dog who can score," averaging 30 PPG. Higher scoring dogs are more likely to keep up with the favorite or backdoor cover.
Pros have also leaned on the under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51.5. Primetime overs are 8-3 this season. However, divisional unders that fall at least a half point are roughly 54% to the under the past decade. The lead referee, John Hussey, is 57-percent to the under historically. The Chargers are 3-0 to the under. The Raiders are 2-1 to the over.
Prop Bet to Consider
Derek Carr Over 282.5 passing yards
*Carr leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,203. Through three games he's finished with 435, 382 and 286.
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Spartan
Raiders/Chargers
3* Over 51.5
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Tom Stryker
19-3 ATS NFL MONDAY NIGHT POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Las Vegas Raiders
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Any chance of getting picks from the WT guys tonight? Merril has a 5% and LVC a big play as well. Thanks!
Drew Martin
3% Las Vegas Raiders +3
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DR BOB
1-Star Best Bet – *Under (52.5) – LA CHARGERS (-3) vs Las Vegas
Strong Opinion 51.5
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H&H Sports
NFL
Triple Dime - Chargers -150 (Moneyline
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Big Al
Raiders/Chargers
Under 51.5
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Ben Burns
Raiders/Chargers
Over 51
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Wayne Root
Chairman Chargers -3.5
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Wise guys
Raiders +3
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Carmine Bianco 4%
Raiders/Chargers Over 51.5 Total
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Bob Balfe
Las Vegas +3.5
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XS Sports Picks Monday
NFL:
2 Vegas +146
4 Vegas +3.5 -109
4 Vegas FH Over 25.5 -110
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TMTW SPORTS
NFL YTD 19-11 (63%) +$16,480
4k LA Chargers Over 51.5
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GP from Vegas
Raiders +3.5
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Steve Merril
Over 51.5 NFL
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Elite Sports Picks
L.A. Chargers -3 over Las Vegas (NFL)
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Insider Sports Report
4* L.A. Chargers -3 over Las Vegas (NFL)
Range: -1.5 to -5
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National Sports Service
4* Las Vegas/L.A. Chargers OVER 51.5 (NFL)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 10/04/21
4 Unit --> Las Vegas/L.A. Chargers UNDER 51.5 (NFL)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 10/04/21
4★ Las Vegas +3 over L.A. Chargers (NFL)
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SMART MONEY PLAYS
Las Vegas Raiders Under 52 (3u, 8e)
Las Vegas Raiders +3 (2u, 8e)
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Scott Richenbach
Vegas +3.5
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Las Vegas Pipeline
50* LA Chargers -3
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Doc Holiday Sports
10* Las Vegas Raiders
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5 Star sports
LA Chargers 1st half ML.
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Your daily capper
LV +3.5
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Vegas Dave
Charlotte Hornets 1st half ML
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Godfatherlocks october 4th picks
3rd ever 10 dime nfl pick
los angeles chargers -3
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Any chance of getting picks from the WT guys tonight? Merril has a 5% and LVC a big play as well. Thanks!
Faccok , I haven't seen what you are looking for, but if I do I will post it.
You posted Merril. The other is Las Vegas Chris.
Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s pick
Vegas
We take
Chargers
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Northcoast
2* Over 51.5 Las Vegas/LA Chargers
Top Opinion Monday Night Marquee: Las Vegas (+3.5/+3) LA Chargers
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Vegasmirabet
Raiders +3
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Jack Winningham
Los Angeles Chargers -157 over the Las Vegas Raiders
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LVC 4% Raiders +3.5