Timmy, the Bears (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) got crushed by the Packers 35-16 in Week 17, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. However, Chicago still snuck into the playoffs as the 7th and final seed thanks to a tie-breaker over the Cardinals. Chicago finished the regular season + 2 in point differential, second worst of all playoffs teams ahead of only Cleveland (-11). Meanwhile, the Saints (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) won the NFC South and finished tied for the second-best record in the conference, trailing only the Packers. New Orleans crushed Carolina 33-7 in Week 17, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Saints finished + 145 in point differential, best in the NFC.
This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 9-point home favorite. This public is all over the Saints and happy to fade Mitchell Trubisky. This lopsided support has pushed the line up to the key number of 10. Chicago has value as a contrarian playoff dog with an inflated line. Big playoff dogs of + 7 or more are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. We've also seen some sharp over money hit the market, driving the total up slightly from 47.5 to 48. Indoor playoff games have gone over roughly 70% of the time over the past decade. Alvin Kamara (COVID-19) and Michael Thomas (ankle) are both expected to play today. The Saints are 10-6 to the over this season. Chicago is 8-8. Hitting Over brotha!