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NCAAF National Chanpionship Trends and Match-Ups

NCAAF National Chanpionship Trends and Match-Ups 2 weeks 3 days ago #529064

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Wednesday 1/6/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NBA, NCAAF & NCAAB games.
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NCAAF National Chanpionship Trends and Match-Ups 2 weeks 3 days ago #529065

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2021 College Football National Championship Odds
Patrick Everson

Alabama opened -7.5 Friday night, and sharp money immediately showed up on Ohio State +7.5, with line moves in both directions since.

College football odds for the CFP national championship are up and drawing dollars. In Friday's CFP semifinals, top-seeded Alabama coasted against No. 4 Notre Dame, while No. 3 Ohio State hammered No. 2 Clemson, setting up an SEC-Big Ten championship game showdown.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on the College Football Playoff championship game opening line, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this Ohio State vs. Alabama showdown. Covers will update this action report with college football sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

CFP National Championship Game Odds


CFP National Championship: Ohio State vs Alabama Odds
Opening line
Alabama -7.5, Over/Under 76.5

Why the line moved
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET MONDAY: Alabama was installed as a 7-point favorite at William Hill US, ticked to -8 by Saturday afternoon, then crept down to -7.5 Monday. The Crimson Tide are attracting 58 percent of spread tickets and 68 percent of spread money. "I’m not surprised by the movement. 'Bama seems to be on a different level than everyone," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "Ohio State mauled Clemson, so that should slow down the 'Bama train a little. We’re going to need the same exact thing as Alabama-Notre Dame, for Alabama to win and not cover, and for the game to go under the total." That total ticked from 76 to 75.5 Sunday morning and is still there tonight, with early action strongly favoring the Under, at 71 percent of tickets and 86 percent of money. "With the total this high in a game of this magnitude, the professionals are going to be betting the Under for sure," Bogdanovich said. “The masses will play it Over just because it’s Alabama's offense and Ohio State has the firepower to keep up. When push comes to shove, we’ll need the Under when this kicks off."

UPDATE 4:30 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened Alabama a 7-point favorite late Friday night and at lunch hour Saturday went straight to -8, then backed up a tick to -7.5 Saturday night. The Crimson Tide are taking 71 percent of point-spread bets and 76 percent of point-spread money. The total opened at 76 and this morning dropped to 75 for literally five minutes, before returning to 76. Ticket count and money are both running about 2/1 on the Under.

UPDATE 11:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: About 24 hours after this game went up at The SuperBook, and with more than a week until kickoff, there's been a fair amount of line movement. Alabama opened -7.5 Friday night, and SuperBook executive director John Murray said sharp money immediately showed up on Ohio State +7.5, moving the line to -7.

Late Friday night, the line moved back to the opener of 'Bama -7.5, then slid back to -7 again this morning. However, by this afternoon, Alabama was up to -8.

Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields got drilled in the ribs in the first half of the semifinal upset over Clemson, yet returned to lead the victory. Fields admitted postgame that he was hurting, but Murray said the move up on Alabama wasn't related to Fields' status for the Jan. 11 showdown.

"Just moving up with bets and the market," Murray said. "We definitely expect Fields to be out there."

The total opened at a hefty 76.5 and was down to 75.5 this morning.

"We took a sharp bet and a few public bets on Under 76.5 Friday night," SuperBook risk manager Rex Beyers said in explaining the early dip in the total. "But I can't see the total going down from now until the day of the game. The wiseguys would maybe fight over it at the start, but now that there is a market in place, in most situations like this, none of them will be rushing to bet it Under. They'll let the public drive it up from here."

No. 1 Alabama had little trouble dispatching No. 4 Notre Dame 31-14 in Friday's first College Football Playoff semifinal. Then, No. 3 Ohio State stunningly steamrolled No. 4 Clemson 49-28 in the second semifinal.

Well before the Ohio State-Clemson game ended, The SuperBook opened Alabama -7.5, with a total of 76.5, for the Jan. 11 CFP championship game.

"A respected guy took the Buckeyes +7.5 immediately, and we went to 7," SuperBook executive director John Murray said. "There wasn't much discussion really. We had already discussed the potential lines for the different matchups, and (Ohio State QB Justin) Fields looks like he is fine. No concerns there."

Fields took a huge hit in the second quarter and apparently suffered a rib injury, but he only missed one play before firing a TD pass to make it 28-14. Fields then threw another TD pass in the waning seconds of the half to make it 35-14, and he continued playing well in the second half.

The total didn't budge Friday night, but Murray is quite sure of what's coming over the next 10 days.

"Sharps will bet the Under, and the public will hammer the Over," Murray said.
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NCAAF National Chanpionship Trends and Match-Ups 2 weeks 3 days ago #529066

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College Football Playoff Championship Odds, Cheat Sheet, Trends

The College Football Playoff championship is set and the Alabama Crimson Tide will meet the Ohio State Buckeyes in the title game on Monday Jan. 11, 2021 at Hard Rock Stadium from Miami Gardens, Florida.

Inside the Odds

Opening Line: Alabama -7
Current Line: Alabama -8

The Circa in Las Vegas sent out the Crimson Tide as a seven-point favorite over the Buckeyes while the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Alabama -7.5.

FanDuel sent out Alabama -6.5.

As of Sunday Jan. 3, eight days before kickoff, Alabama is sitting at -8 at the majority of sportsbooks.

Opening Money-Line: Alabama -260, Ohio State +220
Current Money-Line: Alabama -295, Ohio State +250

A few sportsbooks in Las Vegas are holding Alabama as high as -340 (Bet $100 to win $29) while the largest return on Ohio State is +280 (Bet $100 to win $280).

Opening Total: 77
Current Total: 75

Circa sent out 77 after Friday’s semifinal outcomes and the number has dropped down to 75 at the property that operates out of both Nevada and Colorado.

A couple shops are holding 76 but most are in the neighborhood of 75 to 75.5.

Betting Numbers

Alabama Crimson Tide

SU: 12-0
ATS: 8-4
O/U: 7-5

Head coach Nick Saban and his talented squad improved to 12-0 after the school defeated Notre Dame 31-14 in the first College Football Playoff semifinal in the Rose Bowl, which took place from Arlington, Texas this season.

The Crimson Tide failed to cover as a 19-point favorite as the Fighting Irish scored a late touchdown for its backers. Including that result, Alabama closed the season with back-to-back non-covers after winning seven straight games for bettors.

The 31 points scored against Notre Dame was the lowest offensive output of the season for Alabama. The 14 points allowed, could’ve been 7, was a great rebound game for the Tide after the school allowed 46 points to Florida in the SEC Championship win.

Alabama’s last four games have come outside of Tuscaloosa and the school has outscored opponents by 27.5 points per game (47.5 to 20).

The Crimson Tide have been favored in every game this season. Prior to this number, the shortest point-spread that Alabama was laying came on Oct. 17 when the Tide were six-point home favorites over Georgia.

The Bulldogs held a 24-20 lead at halftime before Alabama outscored them 21-0 in the second-half for the 41-24 win and cover.

Ohio State Buckeyes

SU: 7-0
ATS: 4-3
O/U: 5-1-1

The Buckeyes finished 5-0 in the Big Ten regular season, failing to complete their eight-game schedule as three games were cancelled.

Despite not playing six conference games, Ohio State was afforded the opportunity to play in the Big Ten Championship and it defeated Northwestern 22-10 but failed to cover as a 17-point favorite.

The 22 points scored was the lowest output by the offense all season but the 10 allowed was the best effort by the defense.

In their College Football Playoff semifinal match against Clemson, the Buckeyes were listed as underdogs (+7) for the first time this season.

Ohio State fell behind early 7-0 and 14-7 early before scoring 21 points and taking a 35-14 lead into halftime. The two teams exchanged a pair of touchdowns in the second-half and the Buckeyes held on for a 49-28 upset victory in the Sugar Bowl.

Including that win, Ohio State went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS outside of Columbus this season and the offense traveled well, averaging 40.4 PPG.

Head-to-Head

This will be the fifth all-time meeting between the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes. Alabama has won three of the first four encounters but Ohio State claimed the most recent meeting.

The Buckeyes defeated the Tide 42-35 in the inaugural College Football Playoff in the 2014-15 season. Ohio State won as a 9.5-point underdog and the ‘over’ (57.5) was never in doubt.

Ohio State went on to win the championship a little more than a week later as it pulled off another surprise, defeating Oregon (-6.5) 42-20 in the title game.

Conference Notes

Alabama has gone 7-1 both SU and ATS in its last eight meetings against Big Ten schools, which included a 35-16 victory over Michigan in the Citrus Bowl last year. The lone loss during this stretch was the aforementioned setback to the Buckeyes.

Outside of the win versus Ohio State, the Buckeyes haven’t had many recent matchups versus the SEC or much success either. OSU is 2-5 both SU and ATS in its last 7 versus the SEC, all of the games played in the postseason.

Postseason Notes

Alabama has gone 8-2 SU and 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10 postseason matchups.

The Crimson Tide have been favored in every game during this span.

In the two losses, Alabama has allowed 44 and 35 points. Both of those games went ‘over’ the number.

In the four games that the Tide have covered during this stretch, the defense allowed a combined 27 points and that led to an easy 4-0 ‘under’ mark.

Going back to 2012, Ohio State is 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in its last 10 postseason contests.

The 49 points scored in the Sugar Bowl versus Clemson was the highest offensive effort during this span.

The Buckeyes have been underdogs five times in this stretch and the school has gone 3-2 both SU and ATS.

In the wins, Ohio State posted 42, 42, and 49 points while being held to 17 and 23 in losses.

College Playoff Trends

This will be the 7th College Football Playoff Championship game and including the semifinal matchups, we’ve seen 20 games played so far.

Underdogs have gone 11-9 ATS so far and that includes the wins (Ohio State) and covers (Notre Dame) in this year’s semifinals.

In the Championship Game, ‘dogs have proven to be a great investment for bettors prior to last year’s dominating win by LSU.

2019 - LSU 42 Clemson 25, Tigers -4.5, Over 66.5
2018 - Clemson 44 Alabama 16, Tigers +5.5, Over 57.5
2017 - Alabama 26 Georgia 23 (OT), Crimson Tide -3.5, Over 45.5
2016 - Clemson 35 Alabama 31, Tigers +6.5, Over 51.5
2015 - Alabama 45 Clemson 40, Crimson Tide -6.5, Over 53.5
2014 - Ohio State 42 Oregon 20, Buckeyes +6.5, Under 72.5

Overall, underdogs have gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS.

Alabama has never covered the point-spread in any of its four CFB final appearances despite going 2-2 in the title game. Ohio State is 1-0.

The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the six title games.

This year’s ‘over/under’ of 75 will likely be the highest closing total in the championship game.
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NCAAF National Chanpionship Trends and Match-Ups 1 week 5 days ago #529277

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Monday, January 11


OHIO ST (7 - 0) vs. ALABAMA (12 - 0) - 1/11/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
ALABAMA is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
OHIO ST is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
OHIO ST is 203-155 ATS (+32.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 203-155 ATS (+32.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 123-89 ATS (+25.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NCAAF National Chanpionship Trends and Match-Ups 1 week 5 days ago #529278

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NCAAF

Championship

Trend Report

Ohio State @ Alabama
Ohio State
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State's last 5 games
Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Alabama is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
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NCAAF National Chanpionship Trends and Match-Ups 1 week 5 days ago #529279

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Championship

Alabama (12-0) vs Ohio State (7-0)
— Alabama won one game this year by less than 17 points (Florida).
— Alabama held 7 of last 8 opponents to 17 or fewer points.
— Crimson Tide has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Alabama has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Bama’s junior QB has made 15 starts.
— Alabama didn’t cover last last two games, after covering seven in a row.
— Alabama is 6-2 in last eight bowls (both losses to Clemson).
— Over is 7-5 in Alabama games this year.

— QB Fields was banged up last game (ribs?), still threw for 385 yards.
— Ohio State scored 38+ points in six of their seven games.
— Buckeyes ran ball for 295.5 ypg in last four games.
— Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— OSU has 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ohio State’s junior QB has started 20 games.
— Since 2013, Buckeyes are 3-1 ATS as an underdog.
— OSU won four of last six bowls (both losses vs Clemson)
— Over is 5-1-1 in Ohio State games this year.
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