Sunday 11/29/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NCAAB
R.J. White
NYJ +7
MIA @ NYJ | 11/29 | 1:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 7:11 PM
The Jets have been competitive in their last few games as the offense gets healthier and healthier, and there's a chance they'll have Sam Darnold back for this game. That makes them a massive value play at +7 against a Dolphins offense that has not looked good despite putting together a five-game win streak before Sunday's loss in Denver. Teams have been able to run all over the Dolphins, but a mediocre Broncos passing attack had no issues carving them up last week either. With Tua Tagovailoa struggling enough to get benched in-game for performance reasons, this has a great chance of being the Jets' first win of the season.
31-23-3 IN LAST 57 NFL ATS PICKS | +525
19-15-2 IN LAST 36 NYJ ATS PICKS | +252
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ATS PICKS | +90
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Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
10:19 AM
CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA | 11/29 | 1:00 PM EST
OVER 48.5
Each of these teams is loaded with offensive playmakers, but has a shaky defense. This total is about a touchdown low. The Over is cashing in more than 60 percent of my simulations.
+305 12-8-2 IN LAST 22 NFL PICKS
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Larry Hartstein
ARI -2.5
ARI @ NE | 11/29 | 1:00 PM EST9:36 PM
The Cardinals had a bit of a letdown last Thursday at Seattle because of their dramatic win over Buffalo. They'll bounce back this week. The Patriots run the ball well but that's it. Arizona can handle that. Kyler Murray will be too much for New England.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
5-4-1 IN LAST 10 ARI ATS PICKS | +49
NYJ +7
MIA @ NYJ | 11/29 | 1:00 PM EST8:54 PM
The Jets have covered three of their last four games and they'll face a Miami team that could be missing two starting offensive linemen. No. 2 receiver Preston Williams is definitely out. This might be New York's best remaining shot for a win. Grab the points.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
8-2 IN LAST 10 NYJ ATS PICKS | +580
10-6 IN LAST 16 MIA ATS PICKS | +340
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Mike Tierney
SF +7
SF @ LAR | 11/29 | 4:05 PM EST2:49 PM
The bye week was a blessing -- not in disguise -- for the 49ers, with about 30 players landing on injured lists this season. This opponent is another blessing; though the Rams are in Super Bowl contention, they have dropped three straight to San Francisco. L.A. is far less rested, having returned home from their fifth East Coast commute this year after a Monday night win over Tampa Bay. The Niners have covered in seven of the last 10 as underdogs.
18-11 IN LAST 29 LAR ATS PICKS | +571
NYG -5.5
NYG @ CIN | 11/29 | 1:00 PM EST2:45 PM
Not long ago, it would have been unimaginable for the Giants to be granting so many points. But they have won two in a row, mainly with stingy defense, while Cincy has gone south with the injury to QB Joe Burrow and five losses in six games. Entering from the bullpen: Ryan Finley, 0-3 as a starter in his career, losing by a combined 49 points. The Giants have covered their last four games and are solid roadies, with a 21-7 ATS record dating to 2017.
14-4-1 IN LAST 19 CIN ATS PICKS | +956
11-8 IN LAST 19 NYG ATS PICKS | +198
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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 29 2020 1:00PM
257 CLE -0.5(-120) William Hill vs 258 JAC double-dime bet
Analysis: A lot of locals have not put this game up, but BOL and all the domestic shops such as Fanduel, WHill, and DK have it available right now. Green Bay is good in a teaser as long as it's 2.5 or less.
2* 6 PT TEASER Browns -0.5/Packers -1.5 -120
Throw out the Jags week one win against Indy, where they were statistically dominated but managed a win, and we would be talking about this Jags team as a historically bad team along with the Jets. I make this game Cleveland -8.5 and strongly lean towards them ATS as well.
The Jags are even worse then their season long stats would indicate. QB Jake Luton, if he starts, is a downgrade on Gardner Minshew (and Minshew is one of the leagues worst starting quarterbacks). Injuries have recently dismantled an already bad roster. Pro bowl caliber LG Andrew Norwell and DE Josh Allen are the latest injuries, adding to a list of injured starters that already included WR Laviska Shenault, TE James O'Shaugnessy, CB CJ Henderson and CB Sidney Jones.
Green Bay is 5-0 SUATS off a loss under Matt Lafleur, and with this defense being able to put shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander on Allen Robinson, Chicago lacks the complementary pieces to their offense needed to get the leagues 31st ranked offense going. And this offense is regressing, as they have been held to 3, 5, 4.8, and 4.6 YPP in their last four games (league average is 5.7).
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HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Nov 29 2020 4:25PM
271 KAN / 272 TAM OVER 54.0 Westgatedouble-dime bet
Analysis: I will start this off with an excerpt from my Chiefs/Ravens over write up from earlier in the season. I think the matchup and situation is very similar for the Chiefs in this game.
"The logic is simple on this over: When you force an all time great quarterback into urgent situations, his aggressiveness and production is going to skyrocket. What other explanation is there for the fact that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to six consecutive victories when trailing by at least 10 points at any time during the game?"
Tampa Bay's offense has struggled against top tier pass rushes such as the Saints, Rams, and Bears, but that has not been the case against weaker pass rushes and their offense is more then capable of putting the Chiefs offense into situations where offensive urgency is needed, just like the Raiders did last week in a game in a game that finished with 66 points. The Chiefs defense does not look right, and most importantly against Vegas they couldn’t put any pressure on the quarterback, important against arguably the leagues most pressure sensitive quarterback in Tom Brady. If given time against this Chiefs secondary, there are matchup edges all over the field to exploit.
The Bucs defense is an obvious pass funnel, ranking first in the NFL in YPC allowed in run defense but in pass defense they recently allowed big games to Jared Goff, Drew Brees, and Daniel Jones. They play a defensive style nearly identical to the Ravens, who are heavy on agressive man coverage and blitzing (Ravens rank first in blitz rate, Tampa is second). Mahomes in that game against Baltimore went 31 of 42 for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Quite simply, I believe this number is short. Both pass defenses are recently playing below expectation, and both quarterbacks have plus matchups against the style of defenses they are facing.
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Las Vegas Chris
4% Saints -5'
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Hank Goldberg
KC -3.5
New Orleans -5.5
Buffalo -5.5
Carolina +4
NY Giants -5.5
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Matt Severance
Cleveland -6.5
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Colin Cowherd's Blazing Five
Buffalo -6
NY Giants -5.5
Tennessee +4
Chicago +9.5
Seattle -6
YTD 25-29-1 Last week 1 -4
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Football Jesus
Titans , Buccaneers
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Larry Ness
"Legend"
Minn Vikings
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WUnderdog
NFL
MoneyLine
KansasCity -172 vs tampa bay
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Warren Sharp
257 Cleveland Browns Over 47.5 (0.75 units)
263 LA Chargers Over 52 (1 unit)
added
263 LA Chargers team total Over 23.5 (0.5 units)
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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Nov 29 2020 1:00PM
263 LAC 5.5(-110) Westgate vs 264 BUF double-dime bet
Analysis: We all know the book on the Chargers. Look to fade them as a favorite, and look to back them as underdogs. The Chargers and the Steelers remain the only two teams this entire season who have not lost a game by more than one score.
The Chargers offense matches up very well against this Bills defense. Justin Herbert is the third rated QB in the NFL at throwing deep (15 yards of further), and the Bills allow a league high in completion rate on those throws. Herbert is also excelling against the blitz this year with over 9 YPA, while Buffalo is 6th in the NFL in blitz rate.
Buffalo is gonna score points (hence why we like the over), but the Chargers are going to as well, and Buffalo could potentially be without WR John Brown while the Chargers could potentially be getting stud slot corner Chris Harris and RB Austin Ekeler back. Keenan Allen also gets a plus matchup, going against a Bills defense that is vulnerable inside and does not move CB TreDavious White into the slot.
Both teams are dealing with potential injuries, but the most important one might be Bills underrated WR John Brown. There was bad weather in these games, but the Bills offense scored only 18.75 PPG in the four games Brown has missed this year, and that was against a weak schedule of opposing defenses in NYJ, NE, KC, and TEN. In the games Brown has played in, the Bills have averaged 32.8 PPG
I make this game Chargers +3.5, giving us value on the Chargers!
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Hitman
266 NYJ 7.0(-110) Southpoint vs 265 MIA double-dime bet
Analysis: This has been a different Jets offense since getting their wide receivers healthy. Over the Jets last two games, they have scored 7 offensive touchdowns, which matches what they did in their 8 games. Not only will the Jets finally have all three of their starting wideouts back for this game, but they will also have QB Sam Darnold back.
Miami since inserting Tua into their starting lineup are averaging 4.3 YPP, last in the NFL. This is a well coached team, but this is not anything near even an average roster in my opinion.
With Miami struggling to score points, and the Jets offense playing much better, there's no way Miami can be laying a touchdown on the road. The perception is that the Jets are unbackable , but they have actually covered three of their last four games including two straight
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Syndicate Cash NFL Plays :
Atlanta + 9 % Cash / NE + 26% Cash / San Fran + 34 % Cash
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Lorenzo's Locks (Sports Pulse)
Raiders by 8
Giants by 13
Bills by 8
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Emory Hunt
Cleveland -6.5
Miami -7
Giants -6
Indianapolis -3
Las Vegas -3
New Orleans -6
Rams -6.5
KC -3
Green Bay -9
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Mike McClure
KC -3
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Tom Fornelli
Atlanta +3
KC -3
Tennessee Under 51.5
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NY Post
Dunleavy (22-11) Mia -7; Sea -5; Pit -4.5
Serby (20-12-1) Gia -5; Jets +7; Ten +4
Kussoy (19-14) Hou -2.5; Dal -3; Min -4.5
Loftis (10-23) Gia -5; Min -4.5; Cle -6.5
Schwartz (10-21-2) Dal-3; Buf -6; Pit -4.5
Cannizzaro (13-20) Det +2.5; Dal -3; Pit -4.5
Blezow (13-17-3) Gia -5; LAC +6; Cle -6.5
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NY Daily News
P. Leonard (9-2) Ari -2.5
K. Wagner (9-2) GB -7.5
T. Biersdorfer (8-2-1) KC -3
A. Clayton (7-4) KC -3
W. Pakutka (7-4) Cle -6.5
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MTI
5* Titans / Colts under 52
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MTI
4.5-Star Jets +7 over Dolphins -
4-Star Packers -9.5 over Bear
4.5-Star Giants at Bengals OVER 42.5
4.5-Star Chargers at Bills Over 53 -
4-Star Chiefs at Bucs UNDER 53 -
4-Star Arizona at Patriots Over 49.5 -
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John Ryan
5* Rams -6.5
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SDQL Gurus
Kansas City Under 56.5
Buffalo Over 52
Green Bay -9.5
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Kyle Akins
Cleveland Over 49.5
New England +1.5
Chicago +9.5
Jacksonville +7
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Micah Roberts
Carolina Over 50
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Dr. Bob
2* KC/TB 1H OVER 26.5
1* SF +7.5
1* SF/LAR UNDER 46.5
.1/2* Cle -6.5
.1/2* LAC/Buf OVER 53
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Kevin Rogers
Best Bet - Bears/Packers Under 44.5
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ultra sports 11/29
new england
indianapolis
buffalo
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Marc Lawrence
NFL - 4* Game 252 - Falcons (+3) - NFL GOW
Edges - Falcons: 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS versus AFC West opponents, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog; and head coach Raheem Morris 14-9-1 ATS against opponents coming off a loss … Raiders: 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 1-9 SUATS versus losing opponents; and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away off a loss when facing NFC South opponents … We cement the call with this from our NFL Perfect System Club as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any sub .850 NFL single-digit road favorite off one loss-exact that was preceded by a 3-0 SUATS win streak if they are facing a foe coming off a loss of 14 or more points if the foe won 8 or fewer games last season. That’s because these deflated road favorites are 0-15-1 ATS in this role since 1980. In addition our powerful database note that NFL home dogs who started the season 0-4 are 10-0 ATS since 1990 as home dogs from Game Five out when coming off a SU and double digit ATS loss in which they scored fewer than 10 points when facing an opponent that surrendered 20 or more points in its previous game. With that, recommend a strong 4* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 269 - Forty Niners (+7)
Edges - 49ers: Head coach Kyle Shanahan 15-7 ATS away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points, including 6-0 ATS the last six; and Shanahan 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS from Game Eleven out away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points … Rams: Head coach Sean McVay 8-15-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins, including 0-5 SUATS the last five, and McVay 4-13-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins when not favored by 9 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in division games … Our powerful database seals it with these two winning angles - 1) NFL division favorites of 2 or more points coming off a Monday Night SU underdog win are 0-15-1 ATS since 1993 when facing a foe whose team net YPR (Yards Per Rush) is positive; and 2) NFL dogs on a 0-3 SUATS exact streak are 10-5 SU and 11-4 when coming off a Bye week since 1980, including 5-0 SUATS from Game Seven out … With the Niners rested and getting key injured starters back in the lineup today, we recommend a strong 3* play on San Francisco 49ers. Thank you and good luck as always.
NFL - 3* Game 272 - Buccaneers (+3.5)
Edges - Bucs: QB Tom Brady 14-1 ATS career as a dog off a loss, including 10-0 ATS against foes coming off a win; and head coach Bruce Arians is 10-1 SUATS in his NFL career as a non-division home dog, including 8-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win as well as 6-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss … Chiefs: 1-6 ATS all-time as a favorite versus NFC South opponents, including 0-4 ATS when KC is coming off a win … With Brady 3-0 SUATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss, we recommend a 3* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.
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OSKEIM SPORTS
All Football Plays
Game: (257) Cleveland Browns at (258) Jacksonville Jaguars
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 49.0 (-110)
This game falls into very strong 30-5 ATS and 21-3 ATS totals systems of mine that invest on the OVER in games involving one team with a point differential of minus-7 or worse versus opponents that have allowed seventeen points or less in three consecutive games. Cleveland should be able to move the chains at will against a porous Jacksonville defense that is ranked 31st in the league in both Total DVOA and Pass DVOA.
Cleveland's offense is ranked 19th in Pass DVOA but that rating is grossly misleading in that the Browns played two games against the Raiders and Texans in conditions that were approximately 18 points below average conditions combined. Cleveland's offensive line has performed well this season, ranking 1st in Second Level Yards (1.62), 3rd in Running Back Yards (5.15), 3rd in Open Field Yards (1.10) and 10th in Adjusted Sack Rate (5.4%).
Cleveland's offensive line allowed just two pressures on 22 pass-block snaps against Houston in Week 9 and should dominate the trenches against a Jacksonville front seven that is dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate (3.5%). Despite playing in terrible weather twice this season, Baker Mayfield is 14th among qualified quarterbacks in QBR (71.3) and he should have a solid day against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Browns are 16-5 OVER in road games versus teams allowing 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt, including 7-0 OVER in the second half of the season.
Jacksonville is averaging 26.15 seconds per play, which is the 6th fastest pace in the NFL this season. And the Jaguars have the opportunity to exploit a subpar Cleveland secondary that is ranked 20th in Pass DVOA despite playing the 28th easiest schedule. The Browns will be without their top defensive player for a second consecutive game as defensive end Myles Garrett was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list last week. Garrett had been leading the NFL with 9.5 sacks and his absence gives Jacksonville a fighting chance to move the chains.
Jacksonville is 17-6 OVER after scoring six points or less in its previous game and 10-2 OVER at home following a double-digit home loss. With Cleveland standing at 8-1 OVER in road affairs off one or more consecutive UNDERS since 2017, take the OVER and invest with confidence.
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Tkwins
3* Buffalo -4
4* Minnesota -2.5
4* Kansas City -3
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VEGAS HOT SHEET
PREMIUM colts..bucks..pit.
Reg..viks,NE,rams, gb,falcon,Seattle
Seattle/vik free
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ATS LOCK
9 raiders
9 giants
9 tampa
0-5 yesterday .
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In Game Trap Highest ranked play NFL
Cardinals vs Patriots OVER 49
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ESPN Daily Wager Best Bets
Preston.....Mia-Jets OVER
Doug..........Teaser Cleve/Giants
Anita,,,,,,,,,Gallman OVER 57.5 rushing yards
Joe..............Titans
Tyler.......Mahomes OVER 2.5 TDs
Mike Clay......DeVante Parker OVER 59.5 yards
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Dave Cokin
3% Buccaneers +3'
3% Falcons +3
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Bob Balfe
Az -2// ne. + OVER49.5
Clev -7 // jx
Car.-mn// over 50
Buffalo -4.5// chargers
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Jeff Ma- Ravens , Dolphins, Saints
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WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST
ODBMG2 - W38 L15 T2 LW 1-4
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE NO SF SEA
CAPENJ - W35 L18 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: ATL JAX CAR LAC CHI
MARTY MUSH - W35 L19 T1 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE CAR LAC NO
TOURIST - W33 L18 T4 LW 4-1
Week 12 Picks: TEN BUF LAR TB CHI
THE KING OF GREEN - W34 L19 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: CLE LAC DEN SF PHI
GRIND EM OUT - W34 L19 T2 LW 3-2
Week 12 Picks: DET NE IND LAR TB
OOPHIE 69 - W34 L19 T2 LW 2-3
Week 12 Picks: LV CLE CAR MIA NO
INVISIBLE - W34 L19 T2 LW 2-3
Week 12 Picks: LV CIN TEN NO SF
PARLAY KG - W34 L19 T2 LW 1-4
Week 12 Picks: LV ARI NYG TEN SEA
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Bondi
4* Minnesota
3* New England
3* San Francisco
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Marco D"Angelo
4% (272) TAMPA BAY +3.5
Bad scheduling spot for Kansas City as the Raider Game was a big Game as it was SNF and a revenge game for Kansas City’s only loss of the season. KC now has to travel to Tampa for a Non-Conference Road game (least important on schedule). Tampa on the other hand comes in here on a short week off a loss on MNF. Once again Brady struggled in a Prime Time night game this year as his INT’s were the difference in the game. Last Week I was on the Rams because we had two good teams with very good defenses. The Rams had the better defense and was getting points an angle I like to ride with. For this game we have the same situation two good teams but one has the better defense and is getting points and this week that’s Tampa. Tampa has the #3 defense in YPP allowing just 5.2 yards. Last Week The Rams were able to put pressure on Brady, but this KC defense doesn’t bring that kind of pressure on opposing QB’s like the Rams do. Note Arians is 13-3 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less in his coaching career. We also find that over the L3 Seasons Brady has been a Underdog 5 times he’s 4-1 SU & ATS. TAMPA BAY 31-28TAKE TAMPA as my 4% NFL UPSET SHOCKER.
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Marco D"Angelo
4% (272) TAMPA BAY +3.5
Bad scheduling spot for Kansas City as the Raider Game was a big Game as it was SNF and a revenge game for Kansas City’s only loss of the season. KC now has to travel to Tampa for a Non-Conference Road game (least important on schedule). Tampa on the other hand comes in here on a short week off a loss on MNF. Once again Brady struggled in a Prime Time night game this year as his INT’s were the difference in the game. Last Week I was on the Rams because we had two good teams with very good defenses. The Rams had the better defense and was getting points an angle I like to ride with. For this game we have the same situation two good teams but one has the better defense and is getting points and this week that’s Tampa. Tampa has the #3 defense in YPP allowing just 5.2 yards. Last Week The Rams were able to put pressure on Brady, but this KC defense doesn’t bring that kind of pressure on opposing QB’s like the Rams do. Note Arians is 13-3 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less in his coaching career. We also find that over the L3 Seasons Brady has been a Underdog 5 times he’s 4-1 SU & ATS. TAMPA BAY 31-28TAKE TAMPA as my 4% NFL UPSET SHOCKER.
4% 6pt teaser Browns/ 49ers
4% (261) TENNESSEE +3
Both teams are coming off huge OT Wins last week. But if we dig deeper Indy shouldn’t have won as Green Bay gift wrapped that win by turning the ball over 4 times. This is also the second meeting of the season between these two as just a couple weeks ago Indy went to Tennessee and put a beating on the Titans. In that first meeting Tannehill had his worst game of the year. I like taking the road dog in the second meeting if they lost the first meeting at home. Indy after already beating Tennessee 2 weeks ago and then winning in OT over Green Bay last week, I have to feel that they are feeling all Fat n Sassy and Tennessee is a very live Revenging Road Dog. These two are tied at 7-3 but for Tennessee this game means more as having already lost to Indy if they lose today they would basically be two back instead of one because of tie breaker. TENNESSEE 24-20. TAKE TENNESSEE as my 4% AFC SOUTH SHOCKER.
4% (260) MINNESOTA -3
Will anyone want Minnesota this week after losing to the lowly Cowboys last week especially after how bad Dallas came back and played on Thanksgiving. Last week was the perfect storm as Dallas had 2 weeks to prepare and was getting Andy Dalton back. The Cowboys also were catching Minnesota off a short week following a very physical game with Chicago on MNF the week before. Teddy Bridgewater is set to return this week after missing last weeks game with an injury. Carolina won with the backup QB which was no surprise as that was The Injured Player Theory...But now we have the second part of that as if the injured team wins we look to fade them the following game especially if the starter returns as now you have the reverse effect of the Injured Player Theory. The Basis of the Injured Player Theory is that the injured team is getting an inflated line based on public perception while the rest of the team plays at a higher intensity level to compensate for the loss of the injured player but in Game 2...The team doesn’t play with the same intensity because they won and when the star is returning the line value you enjoyed last week is gone because everyone over reacts the other way with his return. Minnesota will move the ball against this Carolina defense and I just don’t see Carolina trading points the entire game. The one thing I will say is Bridgewater will be pumped up going back to play in Minnesota but he doesn’t play defense and it’s the Carolina defense that will get them beat here. One last Note: Coach Zimmer is 15-4 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of MINNESOTA. MINNESOTA 31-20 as my 4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK.
5% (252) ATLANTA +3
Everyone saw The Raiders look as good as a team could look in defeat last week while they saw Atlanta get trounced by the Saints and a Back up QB. No one will want Atlanta. That was a big game for the Raiders and although it was a good looking loss it was still a loss. And I feel this is a dangerous spot for them. The Knee jerk reaction will be to take The Raiders to bounce back but honestly this is a Trap Game situation as that was a statement game for the Raiders and the way they lost at the end I feel will have a hangover affect this week. The Raiders also have to travel cross country to play a NFC team which I say over and over the least important game on a teams schedule are non conference road games. Atlanta’s defense ranks dead last in YPP allowed at 6.6 but The Raiders aren’t that much better as they are 24th allowing 6.1 YPP. I just can’t trust a team in a bad scheduling spot off a gut wrenching loss with a bad defense to lay points on the road. ATLANTA 31-27 as my 5% NFL HIGH ROLLER
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LINE DRIVE SPORTS
3* Atl
3* NE
3* Buff
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Banker Sports Browns game under
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Dave Price NFL Play:
Atlanta Falcons +3
The Key: The Las Vegas Raiders are in a tough situation today. They must travel out East for an early start time here and try and shake off their 31-35 loss to the Chiefs in which they allowed the winning touchdown in the final minute. The Chiefs are their biggest rivals, so they could easily suffer a hangover here from that defeat. And the price is right to back a Falcons team coming off a bad loss to the Saints. The Falcons have won 3 of their previous 4 with their only loss coming by a single point. They will keep going hard under head coach Raheem Morris as they have been since he took over. And they will have Calvin Ridley healthy and could have Julio Jones back after he got hurt against the Saints. The Raiders have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL so Matt Ryan won’t be getting sacked 8 times like he did against the Saints. He’ll have time to pick apart a soft Raiders defense that yields 27.6 PPG this year. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off 4 or more consecutive ATS wins. Take Atlanta.
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Dwayne Bryant NCAAB
3% Air Force Under 136
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Elite Sports Picks
Kansas City/Tampa Bay OVER 56 (NFL)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Buffalo -4.5 over L.A. Chargers (NFL)
Range: -3 to -7
3* Atlanta +3 over Las Vegas (NFL)
Range: +4.5 to +.5
3* N.Y. Giants -6 over Cincinnati (NFL)
Range: -4 to -8
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National Sports Service
5* L.A. Chargers/Buffalo OVER 52.5 (NFL)
3* San Francisco +6.5 over L.A. Rams (NFL)
3* Kansas City -3.5 over Tampa Bay (NFL)
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Primetime Sports Picks
MEMBER PICKS For 11/29/20
4 Unit --> Minnesota -3.5 over Carolina (NFL)
3 Unit --> L.A. Chargers/Buffalo OVER 52.5 (NFL)
3 Unit --> N.Y. Giants/Cincinnati UNDER 44 (NFL)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 11/29/20
4★ Kansas City/Tampa Bay OVER 56 (NFL)
3★ N.Y. Giants -6 over Cincinnati (NFL)
3★ Tennessee +3 over Indianapolis (NFL)
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Jack Winningham is playing 3 team teezer - Bills over and Rams + and Pack+ and or teeze other way with Bears +18 or so
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Bill Hilton - Gameday
3 - Minn -3
2 - NE +1'
2 - Buff -4'
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Brad Feinberg
cardinals
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North Coast
4* GOM Buffalo -4.5
3* Las Vegas -3
3* Kansas City -3.5
Marquee
Under 44 Green Bay
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JIM FEIST
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS-pts
UNDER 44 - BEARS - PACKERS
CBB - RICHMOND+pts
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KIEV O'NEIL
San Francisco vs LA Rams - UNDER 45.5 – 2 stars
Tennessee +3.5 – 2 stars
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sports insights
atlanta falcons +3
tampa bay+3.5
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The Swami
Five-In-Won Pro Sports (NFL) - 10* Top Side Play Cleveland Browns -7
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Matt Joseph
4% Cincinnati Bengals Total Under 19.5 (-117)
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Jimmy Moore
NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR!!!
7* Green Bay Packers -9 (8:20 est) NBC
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John Ryan
NFL Best Bet Titan
5% Rams Los Angeles Rams -6.5
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
4:05 PM EST, November 25, 2020
5% NFL Best Bet Titan on the LA Rams minus the points.
My models use three-game moving averages among 220 other parameters. San Francisco is averaging 60 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games than their season-to-date average rushing yards-per-game. An NFL team with three games that are far below their season-to-date rushing average and facing a divisional opponent is just 3-10 ATS for 23% winning bets since 2000. The struggles to run the ball over a 3-game span is a rare situation, but a highly profitable one.
The machine learning tools project that the Rams will have a minimum edge of 4 minutes in time-of-possession and average a minimum of 6 or more yards-per-play. In past games in which the Rams met or exceeded these performance measures, they have earned a remarkable 13-1 SU record and 12-2 ATS for 86% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 8.5 points.
The Rams were coming off a huge road win as a dog over the Tampa Bay Bucs and outgained them by more than 2.0 Yard-per-play. So, home teams coming off a road win dressed as a dog in which they averaged 2.0 or more YPPL than the opponent are a profit-making 38-19-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 2006. When these games have seen a posted total of 45 or more points have earned a 17-5 SU record good for 77% winning bets and 16-6 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets since 2006.
Jared Goff is coming off a monster game record a 99.5 QBR and completed 38 of 51 pass attempts. Goff is 5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets coming off a game where he completed 30 or more passes. He and his Rams are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS coming off a game where they converted better than 50% of their third-down situations.
Bet the Los Angeles Rams minus the points as a 5% Best Bet Titan
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Stats Analytics Sports
NFL ATS 35-28 ytd +943
NFL - 3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
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Tom Stryker
Bills
System of Week
Packers
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Brian Bitler
9* NFL Money Move
Los Angeles Chargers +4.5 (-102)
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Mississippi Kid
NFL
Raiders-3 1U
Browns -8.5 1U
Carolina +3 1U
Saints -16 1U
Saint vs Denver UNDER 36.5 2U
Denver TT UNDER 10.5 1U
KC vs TB OVER 57 2U
SD vs Bills OVER 51.5 1.5U
Jack vs Cleve Under 49 1U
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Maddux
10 Cleveland/Jacksonville over 48.5
10 Tennessee +3.5
10 Carolina/Minnesota over 51
10 LA Chargers/Buffalo over 52.5
10 Cleveland -7
10 Miami/NY Jets over 44.5
10 Carolina +3
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Adam Silverstein
Buffalo -4
Las Vegas -3
Tennessee +3
Arizona -1
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Winning Sports Plays (J.R. Stevens)
Carolina +3.5/ML +140 (GOY)
Atlanta +4/ML +160
Jacksonville +8/ML +290
Indianapolis -2.5
New York Jets +8/ML +270
Tampa Bay +4/ML +160
*Play ML for half normal amount when listed
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Tim Doyle
Richmond +280 ML
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Mti teasers
carolina
pittsburgh
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Paul Leiner
3000 lac/buf over
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Rockdeman Sports
NFL Underdog of the Day - Denver Broncos +17
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4Deep Bets- Tommy G
NFL SUNDAY
13pt tease Saints -2, GB +4.5, Sea +7, Rams +7 (5u) MAX
10 pt tease Saints -5, GB +1.5, LV +7 (5u) MAX
7pt tease Saints -8.5, GB -1.5 (5u) MAX
7PT tease Rams pk, GB -1.5 (5u) MAX
Parlay: LV ML, KC, ML, Minn ML +302 (3 to win 9.06)
Parlay: Rams ML, KC ML, LV ML +252 (3 to win 7.56)
1PM Minn -175 (3u)
1PM LasV -180 (3u)
1PM Titans +3 (3u)
1PM Jags +280 (1u)
1PM Bengals +230 (1u)
4PM NO -13.5 -140 (3u)
4PM KC -180 (3u)
4PM rams -6 (3u)
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Scott Rickenbach
10* NFL *TOTAL OF THE MONTH*
New Orleans Saints vs Denver Broncos Over 35.5
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints @ 4:05 ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. That means when situations like this come up you know I'll be taking a look and, if I like the value going against the move, I am all over it. That is most definitely the case here. This total opened up around 45.5 and now is as low as 35.5 points. It is because the Broncos QB situation is a complete mess as all the QBs on their roster are out due to Covid and related contact tracing. That said, they have only a pair of options at QB as Hinton and Freeman would be the guys. Hinton started out as a QB at Wake Forest before converting to RB. Freeman would be more of a wildcat QB. Either way, I still love the value with this total because Denver most definitely will have some trick plays dialed up here and they catch the Saints defense off a dominating divisional win. On the road and after crushing the rival Falcons, don't be surprised if the New Orleans defense is a little flat here. Also, the weather is going to be very nice in Denver with light winds and clear skies and temperatures possibly reaching into the 40s. Keep in mind, long field goals have a better chance in the thin air of Denver when the weather is like this. I just feel this total is way too low. I know the Broncos defense had a strong game last week but Taysom Hill and the Saints offense are a much better combo than the over-rated Dolphins team that Denver just faced. Also, prior to holding Miami to just 13 points, the Broncos allowed at least 26 points in 7 of last 8 games including an average of 36 points in their last 4 games. Keep in mind that is roughly what the total is on this game for BOTH teams combined and I certainly do expect the Broncos to score some points. They will run some trick plays to keep the defense off balance and, again, you don't have to move the ball a whole lot to get into field goal range in Denver! Broncos kicker Brandon McManus is having a fantastic season as he has made 20 of 21 field goals this season including 14 of 15 from 40+ yards (6 of 7 from 50+ yards). The Broncos ran for nearly 200 yards last week and will find a way to move the ball some and get some points in this game but the Saints offense should light them up too. After all, why do you think New Orleans is favored by 15 points here? Yes that has to do with Broncos problems at QB for this one but also this Saints team can put up some points even without Drew Brees under center. Hill was 18 of 23 for 233 yards passing last week plus ran for 2 touchdowns. Considering all the factors as noted above, there is simply phenomenal line value here with this low total. Flat spot for the Saints defense in a divisional sandwich and the Broncos defense feeling a little too good about themselves after dominating Miami last week plus the Denver D has the hated division rival Chiefs on deck. Neither defense will be on top of its game here in my opinion and we have a very low total to work with in nice weather conditions. I will take it. 10* OVER the total in Denver
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Brandon Lang
100 DIME - Las Vegas
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I wanted you to know my token special request for the today is that I'm not going to make a request. Now isn't THAT special? Thanks again for all your research Shaz.
I'll do it for you ...Shazman we appreciate you very much and love all the hard work you do. Asking for a friend if you happen to see Stanford Steve, Dr Bob/ Brian Edwards or Midwest my friends will send you special Christmas Wishes. 🙂
Brandon Watson Sports
CBB
Kentucky -7
Texas Tech -2.5
Oakland/Michigan Over 148.5
NFL
Raiders -3
Vikings -3
Cardinals pk
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David Brooks NFL Best Bets!
Patriots +1
Panthers +3.5
Standard wager, more to come later.
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MILLERLOCKS
Sunday 11/29/2020 Picks
1:00 PM ET NFL
NEW YORK GIANTS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
PICK: NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5 (-101)
RISK: 11 UNITS
1:00 PM ET NFL
CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
PICK: CLEVELAND BROWNS -7.5 (+103)
RISK: 11 UNITS
1:00 PM ET NFL
MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. NEW YORK JETS
PICK: MIAMI DOLPHINS -7.5 (+100)
RISK: 11 UNITS
1:00 PM ET NFL
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. BUFFALO BILLS
PICK: BUFFALO BILLS -4 (+100)
RISK: 11 UNITS
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Clay Travis- Steelers, Cardinals, over 53.5 bills/Chargers, Dolphins, under 45 saints/broncos, chiefs
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Executive
400 Chargers +4
300 Colts -3
300 Falcons +3 1/2
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PickWise Sports
NFL 3* Best Bets (23-14-2 year to date)
Bills/Chargers Over 51
Browns/Jaguars Under 48.5
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Scott Spreitzer
5 JETS +7
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PickWise Sports
CBB 3* Best Bets (8-2-1 year to date)
Texas Tech/Houston Under 138
Play now a 2* as the total has Dropped down to 131
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Marty’s Underdog Play
Triple Play
Jets
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kelso
100 falcons
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King Creole
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
5*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 55 or less points
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT / #251-252…
The stage is set for a big-time Dome SHOOTOUT on Sunday as the Falcons host the Las Vegas Raiders in an EARLY kickoff time of 1:00pm ET. We’ve been patiently waiting all season long for the BEST time to play an Atlanta game OVER the Total as a Best Bet… and that time is NOW. Yes, the bar has been set high for us this week, with an OU line in the mid 50’s for this non-conference game. When the line is this high… and we STILL like the OVER… that means that a lot individual team statistics have to be on our side. First off, we have to have not one but TWO quarterbacks who can consistently get their offenses in the Red Zone. And we are getting that here. The best time to back Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is (a) when he is in the controlled environment of a HOME game… and (b) when he is off a losing, sub-par effort. He had his problems last week in The Big Easy against a very good Saints defense. But the rebound should come pretty easily the week against a defense that’s ranked in the BOTTOM FIVE in passing yards per game allowed. On the flip side, we know what we are getting in Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. A guy who has rejuvenated his career this season. For the year, Carr (78.8) is already ranked as the #4 signal caller in NFL Total QBR rankings. He’s preformed BETTER than Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Deshuan Watson, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, and Ben Roethlisberger. Not only that, but Carr was the NUMBER ONE quarterback LAST week in the home loss to the Chiefs (QBR of 95.1!). He’s on a big time roll, and we’re backing him to carve up the horrific Atlanta secondary (2nd LAST this season in passing yards allowed per game at 300.3). More than 73% of the total yards given up by the Falcons have come via the pass. Its a perfect time for the Raiders to REALLY air it out. So we have established that both quarterbacks are capable of putting up a lot of points FAST. And we’ve established that these two defenses are amongst the worst in the league. So far so good. Now, let’s head onto the database in our search for some ‘Over / Under AMMO’ to back us up…
As we have mentioned in the Totals Tipsheet newsletter, non-conference OVERS have been making a major move as of late. 12-1 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 14 or less AFC road teams (RAIDERS) versus a NFC opponent (FALCONS)… And in HIGH-lined non-conference games…
11-1 O/U last 3 years: All > .400 AFC teams (RAIDERS) versus a NFC opponent (FALCONS), when the OU line is a HIGH 52 or more points. These games have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last two years… and 4-0 O/U THIS season… with a gaudy average of 73.0 combined points per game!…
Also a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in this current 2020 season: All AFC WEST Division teams (LAS VEGAS) versus a NFC SOUTH Division opponent (ATLANTA), when the OU line is > 45 points. Average line in these games: 50.0… Average combined points: 61.5… Average OU margin: +11.5 points per game…
The Raiders are off their ‘Division Gauntlet’. 11-0 O/U since 2013: All non-division road teams off back-to-back DIVISION games (RAIDERS), when the OU line is 45 > Points. Average margin in these games: +10.4 ppg…
In fact, Las Vegas has played Kansas City, Denver, AND the LA Chargers in their last three games. 27-11 O/U since 2012: All NFL road teams off 3 or more DIVISION games in a row (RAIDERS)…
Even though they LOST last week, the Raiders are still on a current PERFECT 4-0 game ATS winning streak in their last four games. 28-12-1 O/U since 1998 / PERFECT 9-0-1 O/U since 2014: All GAME 15 road favorites of -3 or LESS points (RAIDERS), when the OU lie is 46 or more points…
After scoring 34 points against a good Denver defense two weeks ago, the Falcons were held to just NINE points last week in their road loss to the Saints. While that low scoring output might scare off the ‘squares’ in this game, it WON’T scare us off. 14-2 o/U since 2007: All NFL teams after scoring pts at HOME in their last two games (FALCONS). Since the 2014 season, the results improve to a perfect 7-0 OU for these teams…
Atlanta lost that division game last week to the Saints by 15 points (24 to 9). 8-0 O/U since 2014: All GAME 11 > underdogs of 14 points (FALCONS)…
Many times, the difference between an OVER cashing or losing is the TD / FG ‘splits’. Settling for a filed goal hurts us OVER bettors. We want to see TOUCHDOWNS instead. The good thing for us in this particular game is that BOTH teams (LAS VEGAS and ATLANTA) are ranked in the TOP TEN this season in OPPONENT Red Zone TD percentage (ATL #2 / LV #10).
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UDog
Falcons
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Dr. Bob
2* KC/TB 1H OVER 26.5
1* SF +7.5
1* SF/LAR UNDER 46.5
.1/2* Cle -6.5
.1/2* LAC/Buf OVER 53
Tout Tally
Chargers - 5
Bills - 19 .......... 1 GOM
Over - 16
Under - 1
Giants - 20
Bengals - 3 (1 on the ML)
FYI ...
Almost every book (Vegas / offshore / Jersey) is FLOODED with Giants $$
For example ... At Will Hill's 100+ shops, 98% of the money is on New York ... also is the game with the most money on it (15%). Bettors think this might be the easiest game of the year ........FADE AWAY
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Sports Picks Weekly
Sunday, November 29th 2020
NFL:
Arizona/New England Over +50 (-115)
Cincinnati/New York Under -45
Cincinnati TT Under -19.5
Carolina +3
Green Bay -8
Raiders/Falcons Over +53
NCAAB:
No Plays
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H&H Sports
NFL
Triple Dime - Chiefs/Buccaneers Over 55.5
Double Dime - Chargers/Bills Over 51
Double Dime - Giants -6 (-115)
Double Dime - Dolphins -7 (-115)
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Midwest NFL Handicapping
TENN +3
LAC +4
ATL +3.5
NE -1
CHI +8
CLEV -6 (Buy Point)
PITT -10
6 PT Teaser
WASH +3/HOU +3
NYG -.5/CAR +9
TENN +9/GB -1.5
TB +9.5/LAC +10
NE +5/UNDER 56.5
LAR -.5/NO -10.5
TAM +9.5/PHIL +12.5
CLEV -1/GB -1.5
TAM +9.5/OVER 48
OVER/UNDER
KC/TAM OVER 54
TENN/INDY UNDER 52
LAC/BUFF OVER 51
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