Monday 9/28/20 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF, MLB & NBA
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 2:40 PM
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
Let’s just declare this the AFC Championship game. (It would be the Super Bowl if they were in different conferences). Don’t outthink it. Receiving more than a field goal on either side -- in this case, KC -- is irresistible. Baltimore was the more impressive squad Sunday, but the Chiefs’ offense faced a testy matchup that it eventually overcame. Its defense was unprepared for surprise starter Justin Herbert at QB.
10-3 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +675
14-4 IN LAST 18 BAL ATS PICKS | +950
13-5 IN LAST 18 KC ATS PICKS | +745
Mike McClure
MONEY
YESTERDAY 1:25 PM
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
I was happy to see this move to +3.5 after the Chiefs struggled to beat the Chargers in overtime. On a neutral field, these teams are separated by 0.8 points in my simulations, with the Ravens having the edge. Add in 2.7 points for home field advantage and you have a number close to where the market is currently. However, I only give the Ravens one point for home field advantage under the current restrictions on fans, making the true spread -1.8 points for Baltimore. This is a tough spot for Bookmakers as they have to have at least -3 on the board with the public perception of both teams current form. Take the points.
6-2 IN LAST 8 NFL ATS PICKS | +380
4-1 IN LAST 5 KC ATS PICKS | +290
2-1-1 IN LAST 4 BAL ATS PICKS | +90
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Stats Analytics Sports
NFL - 2 Unit Plays
Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs/Baltimore Ravens Over 53.5
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DR. CHUCK FOOTBALL PLAYS
5% NFL WEEK 3 TOTAL CRUSHER!
Game: (489) Kansas City Chiefs at (490) Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Sep 28 2020 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 53.5 (-110)
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R.J. White
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:44 PM
I think we're getting an extra point here because the Chiefs struggled to score against the Chargers last week, but it was against a defense that knows them well and is built specifically to slow them down. The Chiefs beat the Ravens 33-28 last year but had a 30-13 lead entering the fourth quarter in a game where they split RB snaps between Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy. Clyde Edwards-Helaire gives the offense a new dimension and puts more pressure on Ravens defense to slow down too many weapons. But the thinking is simple: if you can get more than a field goal with one of the two best teams in the NFL (and maybe the best), shouldn't you take it? I will.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
12-8 IN LAST 20 BAL ATS PICKS | +320
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Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
YESTERDAY 10:30 PM
BALTIMORE -3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
Patrick Mahomes has been a little slow out of the blocks, for his standards. The Ravens have a great running game, a great defense and I just think they're the better team right now. Lay the points.
7-5 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +150
4-1 IN LAST 5 KC ATS PICKS | +290
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAL ATS PICKS | +90
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HITMAN | NFL Total - Monday, Sep 28 2020 8:15PM
489 KAN / 490 BAL OVER 53.5 Bookmakerdouble-dime bet
Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is an underdog. We haven't heard that often, and we do like the Chiefs catching the 3.5. Mahomes is 5-0-1 ATS as a dog, and won 4 of the 6 games outright. But how has game script gone in those games that Mahomes has been an underdog?
The over has cashed in 5 of Mahomes 6 starts as an underdog. Those games did not only go over, they flew over, with those games averaging a combined 70.5 points per game. This hasn't just been a Mahomes trend either, as last year the Chiefs were underdogs in two games without him playing, and both of those games against Green Bay and Minnesota flew over the total.
The logic is simple on this: When you force an all time great quarterback into urgent situations, his aggressiveness and production is going to skyrocket. What other explanation is there for the fact that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to six consecutive victories when trailing by at least 10 points at any time during the game?
The Ravens offense is likely to put Mahomes in a position where urgency is needed, as they have matchup edges in the running game as well as skill position guys such as Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown. Mahomes has shown time and time again he can deliver when pressed for points. Mahomes has been successful against the Ravens in the past two high scoring meetings (which averaged 55.5 PPG), passing for 751 yards in two meetings. Mahomes throws for 25 more passing yards per game on the road then at home in his career, and his touchdown rate spikes up one percent as well.
The implied team total for Kansas City in this game is 25. points, and the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs offense has went over that team total in a remarkable 32 of 38 career games. If we are going to lose our KC +3.5 wager, it's likely going to be because of a Ravens offensive onslaught, now because of Mahomes struggling.
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Warren Sharp
2020 Week 3: 490 Baltimore Ravens first half -3 (1 unit)
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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
YESTERDAY 12:33 PM
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
This line move is an overreaction to how the Chiefs looked last week vs. a division opponent. These are the NFL's top two teams, by a wide margin. Look for a thriller that comes down to the wire, and take the points.
7-5-1 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +155
7-1 IN LAST 8 KC ATS PICKS | +595
10-6-1 IN LAST 17 BAL ATS PICKS | +339
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Football Jesus Podcast MON pick is Ravens
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Lv betting syndicate
Ravens
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Midwest NFL Handicapping
KC +3.5
Teaser
INDY -5.5/KC +9.5
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Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
5:43 PM
TAMPA BAY -170
TAMPA BAY @ DALLAS | 9/28 | 8:00 PM EDT
My model says the Lightning win in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting great value with them. Tampa Bay allowed a chance to win its second Stanley Cup slip away in Game 5 but won't make the same mistake this time around. Brayden Point has been on fire, recording two points in each of his last three contests, while Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat also are riding four-game point streaks. The Lightning haven't lost consecutive games this postseason. Take Tampa Bay.
16-6 IN LAST 22 NHL ML PICKS | +760
9-3 IN LAST 12 TB ML PICKS | +475
7-3 IN LAST 10 DAL ML PICKS | +413
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Matt Blunt (VegasInsider NFL) - Baltimore Ravens/Kansas City Chiefs Under 55
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FirstHalTips
Rumania : Liga 1
FC Hermannstadt - FC Botosani
First Half : X
Odds : 2.00
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gambinotips
FRANCE - Ligue 2
Troyes - Clermont
Total Goals : 2 or 3
Kurs : 2.10
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Ben Burns
3*Tampa NHL -160
3*Chiefs +3 first half
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Game Of The Year
Chiefs+3.5
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Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
FRI 9/25
BALTIMORE -3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
This is a great matchup between the two best teams in the NFL. Where the Ravens have an advantage this year is along the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs' offensive line had its issues with the Chargers' pass rush, and the Ravens, with the addition of both Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe, should be able to keep Patrick Mahomes and the passing game from gaining any traction. On the offensive front for Baltimore, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson already looks in midseason form.
8-6 IN LAST 14 NFL ATS PICKS | +140
11-2 IN LAST 13 BAL ATS PICKS | +880
19-11 IN LAST 30 KC ATS PICKS | +708
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Elite Sports Picks
Kansas City/Baltimore OVER 53.5 (NFL)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Kansas City +3.5 over Baltimore (NFL)
Range: +5 to +1.5
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National Sports Service
4* Kansas City/Baltimore OVER 53.5 (NFL)
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Primetime Sports Picks For 09/27/20
7
4 Unit --> Baltimore -3.5 over Kansas City (NFL)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 09/28/20
4★ Kansas City/Baltimore UNDER 53.5 (NFL)
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Hank Goldberg (VegasInsider NFL) - Baltimore Ravens -3.5
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Andy Iskoe
Ravens -3.5
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Red Dog Sports
NHL
3* Tampa Bay/Dallas OVER 5
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NumberFire Sports (NFL) - 4* Kansas City Chiefs/Baltimore Ravens Under 55.5
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Chris Rabon (NFL Action Network Sports) - Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
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11th: NFL: 6u: 490 BAL-3. Good Luck!
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Root
Millionaire- Ravens
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MILLER LOCKS
Monday 9/28/2020 Picks
8:05 PM EST NHL
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING VS. DALLAS STARS
PICK: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (-155)
RISK: 11 UNITS
8:15 PM EST NFL
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
PICK: BALTIMORE RAVENS -3.5 (+105)
RISK: 11 UNITS
8:15 PM EST NFL
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
PICK: OVER 54.5 (-104)
RISK: 11 UNITS
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Brett Anderson
THE DOG WHISPERER
2:01 PM
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
Patrick Mahomes has gone 28-8 in his NFL career, including playoffs, and of those eight losses, four were by three points or fewer. With Mahomes as starter, the Chiefs have never lost by more than seven. The Ravens are a great team, no doubt, but as great as they are, do you want to count on K.C. to lose by an amount that's happened just four times in history with Mahomes at the wheel? Grab the 3.5 with the Super Bowl champs.
8-2 IN LAST 10 NFL PICKS | +585
Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
1:40 PM
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
This game could easily be decided by a field goal, and getting the Chiefs with this number is too tempting to pass up. The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games. They looked dominant in their first two games of the season. Kansas City has won eight straight regular season games and Patrick Mahomes is 9-0 in September. The Chiefs looked vulnerable vs. the Chargers. But until Lamar Jackson shows he can beat Kansas City, I will gladly take Mahomes and the points. The Chiefs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 September games. The Ravens are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite.
9-6 IN LAST 15 NFL ATS PICKS | +240
4-0 IN LAST 4 BAL ATS PICKS | +400
Adam Silverstein
FLORIDA FAVORITE
1:25 PM
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
These are the two best teams in the NFL, and the line is fluctuating, so I'm jumping on the hook. The Ravens are rightly favored in the biggest Monday Night Football game of the year, but it should be 1.5 points. Baltimore is getting the inflated line not just because of Kansas City's close game last week but due to the fact that the Ravens have only allowed 22 points through two games. The Chiefs may not have covered last week, but they didn't prepare for Justin Herbert. The offense is humming, and the defense is underrated. This is a game KC won by five last year but led by 17. Both teams have improved in the offseason. I was already leaning toward the Chiefs, but this line cemented the pick. Either way, let's do this again in the AFC Championship Game.
14-10-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS | +330
15-7-2 IN LAST 24 KC ATS PICKS | +712
13-6-1 IN LAST 20 BAL ATS PICKS | +639
Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
1:13 PM
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
All you have to do is show me points with the Chiefs and I’m likely on board as long as Patrick Mahomes is playing. They’ve gone 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games, surpassing time and again the high rating already bestowed upon them. You could argue Ravens -3 is proper at home with the stands full of fans. So anything at +3 or higher without a full crowd presents value to me. I’m buying the Chiefs and taking all the points.
3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS | +300
6-3 IN LAST 9 BAL ATS PICKS | +269
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Tony Finn 3% [NFL] (489) Kansas City Chiefs at (490) Baltimore Ravens
Time: 8:15 PM EDT Baltimore Ravens -3.0 (-120)
Analysis: Play Baltimore Ravens -3 (play good to -4)
3% confidence rating
Game analysis published before noon Vegas time
BALTIMORE RAVENS -3
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The 'R' Factor (TheSwami)
7 Unit Over 54.5
[489] Kansas City Chiefs vs.[490] Baltimore Ravens
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Les Sterling - 35 Unit - Ravens -3'
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Al Demarco
15 Dime- Ravens
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Matt Blunt (VegasInsider)
NHL Stanley Cup Finals
Game #6 - Dallas Stars vs Tampa Bay Lightning
BEST BET - Dallas Stars +157
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Brandon Lang
60 Dime
Ravens -3.5
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