Sunday 9/27/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, MLB & NBA games.
CARMINE BIANCO FOOTBALL PLAYS
SUNDAY 5% NFL TOP PLAY
Game: (471) Washington Football Team at (472) Cleveland Browns
Date/Time: Sep 27 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Cleveland Browns -6.5 (-115)
View Analysis
NFL - Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns
Quick Synopsis: To follow
The play is Cleveland Browns -6.5
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Hitman
Analysis: FYI- LONG TERM CLIENTS.. WE ARE RELEASING 2* NYG +4.5 -110 FOR WEEK THREE..
HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 27 2020 1:00PM
468 NYG 4.5(-110) BetOnline vs 467 SFX double-dime bet
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NFAC
SUNDAY 9-27-20 =
464) Buffalo ML (-125)...($750) via Pinnacle (Nfl)
479) Carolina +7 (-120) - Buy 1/2 PT...($750) via Pinnacle
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BRYAN LEONARD
5% AFC Game of the Month
Game: (465) Houston Texans at (466) Pittsburgh Steelers
Date/Time: Sep 27 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Houston Texans +3.5 (-110
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Stats Analytics Sports (NFL)
All 2* Plays
Minnesota Vikings +3
Carolina Panthers +7
Detroit Lions +6
Denver Broncos +6
Houston Texans +4
Houston Texans/Pittsburgh Steelers Under 45
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R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 3:01 PM
NEW ORLEANS -3
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/27 | 8:20 PM EDT
The Saints seemed to finally conquer their slow-starting issues in Week 1 by covering vs. the Bucs, but an outright loss to the Raiders on Monday night leaves them just 3-15 ATS in the season's first two weeks since 2012. But here's where the turnaround typically starts, as the Saints are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games in Weeks 3-4. As the market starts to doubt Drew Brees and Co., this team offers great value to bettors. And that's what's happened here, as this line was Saints -5.5 on the lookahead. The Packers look unstoppable but did their damage vs. two abysmal CB depth charts while not looking particularly great on defense. The value is clearly on the Saints again in Week 3.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
38-6 IN LAST 44 GB ATS PICKS | +3127
6-3 IN LAST 9 NO ATS PICKS | +259
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Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
MON 9/21
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
Let’s just declare this the AFC Championship game. (It would be the Super Bowl if they were in different conferences). Don’t outthink it. Receiving more than a field goal on either side -- in this case, KC -- is irresistible. Baltimore was the more impressive squad Sunday, but the Chiefs’ offense faced a testy matchup that it eventually overcame. Its defense was unprepared for surprise starter Justin Herbert at QB.
10-3 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +675
14-4 IN LAST 18 BAL ATS PICKS | +950
13-5 IN LAST 18 KC ATS PICKS | +745
Mike McClure
MONEY
MON 9/21
KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
I was happy to see this move to +3.5 after the Chiefs struggled to beat the Chargers in overtime. On a neutral field, these teams are separated by 0.8 points in my simulations, with the Ravens having the edge. Add in 2.7 points for home field advantage and you have a number close to where the market is currently. However, I only give the Ravens one point for home field advantage under the current restrictions on fans, making the true spread -1.8 points for Baltimore. This is a tough spot for Bookmakers as they have to have at least -3 on the board with the public perception of both teams current form. Take the points.
6-2 IN LAST 8 NFL ATS PICKS | +380
4-1 IN LAST 5 KC ATS PICKS | +290
2-1-1 IN LAST 4 BAL ATS PICKS | +90
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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
YESTERDAY 11:56 PM
CHICAGO +4
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
Yes the Bears are extremely fortunate to be 2-0, but the truth is Mitchell Trubisky is playing better this year. If not for a couple egregious drops, his stats would have looked respectable in last week's win over the Giants. Robert Quinn is making an impact opposite Khalil Mack. And the Bears are remarkably healthy. Atlanta, meanwhile, suffered a few key injuries at Dallas. Through two games, the Falcons have given up a whopping 6.9 yards per play, which ranks 31st. Even if Atlanta goes ahead by double digits here, the back door should be open.
7-4-1 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +260
19-12 IN LAST 31 ATL ATS PICKS | +555
4-1 IN LAST 5 CHI ATS PICKS | +290
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Mike Tierney
UNDER 55.5
DALLAS @ SEATTLE | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
6:16 PM
This total is pure galloping inflation. Sure, Seattle is averaging 36.5 points, and its defense is dead-last in yards allowed. Yes, Dallas just tagged 40 on Atlanta. Yet betting totals hardly ever reach this lofty figure. Besides, the Cowboys deployed two undrafted OTs as replacements for injured starters, and at least one will be missing again. Enough analysis. Always go Under if the total hits the ol’ highway speed limit.
11-4-1 IN LAST 16 NFL PICKS | +665
9-5 IN LAST 14 DAL O/U PICKS | +350
TENNESSEE -2.5
TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
6:11 PM
No team overhauled its defense more than Minnesota during the offseason, and it’s showing. One of few key returnees, Pro Bowl LB Anthony Barr was lost for the year last Sunday with a pectoral injury. The Vikings are yielding 35.5 points per outing. Their offense is just as culpable for the 0-2 start - and with fewer excuses - as it generated just 175 yards and 11 points at Indianapolis. The Titans are 9-3 straight-up behind QB Ryan Tannehill, who sports a shiny TD-to-interception ratio of 6-to-0 this season.
10-3 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +675
15-7 IN LAST 22 TEN ATS PICKS | +729
9-4-1 IN LAST 14 MIN ATS PICKS | +464
BUFFALO -2.5
L.A. RAMS @ BUFFALO | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
6:08 PM
To be clear, Los Angeles is the better team, and its 5-0 straight-up record on early kickoffs since Sean McVay became coach offers some appeal. But travel plans were thrown askew when the pandemic forced them to fly home after winning at Philadelphia instead of bunking all week in the Eastern Time Zone. Also, Bufffalo’s offense is one of only four that has been more productive than the Rams’, and QB Josh Allen tops the league in passing yards.
10-3 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +675
15-9 IN LAST 24 LAR ATS PICKS | +501
5-1-1 IN LAST 7 BUF ATS PICKS | +394
N.Y. GIANTS +4
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
6:05 PM
The injury gods punched enough holes in San Francisco's roster to make it look like a moth-eaten sweatshirt in Bill Belichick’s closet. The players who remain have voiced concerns over the turf at MetLife Stadium on which those injuries occurred last week against the Jets. They must negotiate the surface again this weekend, so they could play too cautiously. The Giants lost RB Saquon Barkley (ACL), but his output has been inconsistent. His absence will not be felt as much as some of the 49ers.
10-3 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +675
10-5 IN LAST 15 NYG ATS PICKS | +443
4-2 IN LAST 6 SF ATS PICKS | +175
JACKSONVILLE -3
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE | 9/24 | 8:20 PM EDT
MON 9/21
Jay Gruden has found his proper place in the coaching hierarchy. As an offensive coordinator, the former Washington head coach has hot-wired the Jaguars’ offense. It rang up 480 yards Sunday against Tennessee’s formidable D. The task will be easier with the likelihood that Byron Jones (groin), Miami’s high-priced CB, sits out. Jacksonville is eager to hand off its lead in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.
10-3 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +675
16-6 IN LAST 22 JAC ATS PICKS | +964
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIA ATS PICKS | +190
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Michael Crosson (VegasInsider - Value Index Week #3 plays)
NFL after 2 weeks Record 6-3ytd.
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5
Minnesota Vikings +3
Denver Broncos +6
Green Bay Packers +3.5
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HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 27 2020 1:00PM
473 CIN / 474 PHI OVER 46.0 Pinnacledouble-dime bet
Analysis: Bengals are an OVER team this season. Joe Burrow impressed all of us with his 61 pass attempt performance against the Browns, who's defense is a pass funnel similarly to the Eagles defense. Both the Browns and Eagles defense are similar in the fact that they are stout up front and stout against the run, but struggle in the back seven and pass defense. The Eagles pass defense is ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA despite one of those games getting to be against the struggling Dwyane Haskins. Against Jared Goff, the Eagles allowed 9.1 YPA. Who is the understudy to Sean McVay, who just put on tape the way to attack this Eagles defense? Bengals HC Zac Taylor.
I also think the Eagles are an over team right now as well, which is a perfect recipe for Eagles points against the Bengals defense that struggles in every aspect of playing defense. The Bengals pass rush has only four quarterback hits in two games, and their run defense has been absolutely shredded this season as well for 5.5 YPC to opposing backs. The Bengals are one of the few team who can't expose the Eagles offensive line woes.
The only reason that both of these defenses do not have worse season statistics is because of week one matchups against below average Redskins and Chargers offenses. The reality of these defenses is more similar to the week two performances when they took a step up in competition.
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Dave Essler
3* GOM
Giants +4
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Football Jesus Sunday picks on Podcast, BILLS, and SAINTS
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R.J. White
CAROLINA +6.5
CAROLINA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:45 PM
Love, love, love this spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers. Justin Herbert amazed in his surprise debut last week, but we didn't think he'd be ready for the big stage early in his rookie year, and I bet he'll deal with inconsistency. The Chargers are an ugly home favorite, 2-10-1 ATS in that spot since 2018. They're also coming off an overtime loss after letting the Chiefs off the hook. This is the perfect letdown spot to fade this team and back a Panthers team that's 0-2 ATS, which is a great trend in Week 3. Christian McCaffrey is a big loss, but Mike Davis had some buzz this summer, and this Panthers offense can keep this game close and maybe win outright.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
3-1 IN LAST 4 LAC ATS PICKS | +193
DALLAS +5
DALLAS @ SEATTLE | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:43 PM
I think the Cowboys have looked pretty good despite being 0-2 ATS, a trend that's worth backing in Week 3. They outplayed the Falcons considerably last week but were done in by fumbles and fake punts. Mike McCarthy has proven himself to be a smart coach, and smart coaches shouldn't be catching a bunch of points. The Seahawks look like the NFC's best team through two weeks but are bound to slow down at some point. I don't think they have the pass-rush talent to challenge a beat-up Dallas O-line that actually played pretty well last week. Also, we get Dak Prescott +5, and he can get us through the backdoor vs. anyone right now.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
19-12-2 IN LAST 33 SEA ATS PICKS | +563
UNDER 41.5
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:42 PM
Both these teams are dealing with big losses on the offensive side of the ball, with the 49ers down a quarterback and two running backs to go with their issues at receiver. George Kittle might be able to return this week, but he can't carry the offense himself with Nick Mullens, who was not impressive in relief last week. The 49ers lost some key pass rushers but can still take advantage of the Giants' O-line, while the San Francisco back seven is talented enough to handle the weapons the Giants still have in place. This seems like a Kyle Shanahan run-fest that shortens the game and keeps it Under.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
11-5 IN LAST 16 NYG O/U PICKS | +549
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Brett Anderson
THE DOG WHISPERER
YESTERDAY 11:17 PM
NEW ENGLAND -6
LAS VEGAS @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
As bad spots go, it doesn't get much worse than coming off a huge win in your Vegas home debut over one of the NFL's best teams, then having to face Bill Belichick on a short week in New England. And you can throw in that the Pats lost their last game. The good news for the Raiders is it looks like they'll be enjoying a huge home-field advantage for decades to come, but this week they'll be the team that looks hungover. Lay the points.
6-2 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +385
3-1 IN LAST 4 LV ATS PICKS | +191
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Hank Goldberg
ARIZONA -5.5
DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:27 PM
The Lions have lost 11 straight games. They have no pass rush, their cornerbacks are hurt, and they're facing a Cardinals offense that's clicking with Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake and DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona plays an up-tempo offense that Detroit can't possibly keep up with.
7-5 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +150
5-2 IN LAST 7 DET ATS PICKS | +278
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ATS PICKS | +90
PHILADELPHIA -5
CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:16 PM
The Eagles are starting to get some guys back. Cincy's defense is horrific. I think Carson Wentz will finally play a good game this week. Lay the points.
7-5 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +150
5-2 IN LAST 7 PHI ATS PICKS | +276
3-1 IN LAST 4 CIN ATS PICKS | +190
NEW ENGLAND -6
LAS VEGAS @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:14 PM
The Raiders are coming off a huge win, but they're traveling on a short week and their offensive line is banged up. Cam Newton is playing well. Coming off a loss, I think Bill Belichick will have something up his sleeve. Lay the points.
7-5 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +150
10-2 IN LAST 12 NE ATS PICKS | +781
5-3 IN LAST 8 LV ATS PICKS | +162
TENNESSEE -2.5
TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:11 PM
Tennessee has been squeaking by, but Minnesota is just not a good team. Kirk Cousins has been awful, and the Vikings' defense has been terrible. Lay the points.
7-5 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +150
13-4 IN LAST 17 MIN ATS PICKS | +858
4-1 IN LAST 5 TEN ATS PICKS | +290
L.A. RAMS +2.5
L.A. RAMS @ BUFFALO | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:08 PM
The Rams have been a covering machine on the East Coast. Aaron Donald is going to make Josh Allen uncomfortable. Jared Goff is playing really well, and he's being supported by a strong running game. This is a big jump up in class from what the Bills have been facing (Jets, Dolphins). Take the points.
7-5 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +150
15-6-1 IN LAST 22 LAR ATS PICKS | +846
11-3-1 IN LAST 15 BUF ATS PICKS | +768
ATLANTA -3
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:02 PM
Mitch Trubisky against Matt Ryan is a mismatch. The Bears are typically terrible on the road, and the Falcons are loaded with talent. They're home on the turf, and they're a fast-break team. That will work in their favor and against the Bears.
7-5 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +150
7-2 IN LAST 9 ATL ATS PICKS | +479
3-1 IN LAST 4 CHI ATS PICKS | +191
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Tom Fornelli
MINNESOTA +2.5
TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:20 AM
The Titans are 2-0 to start the season but that record hides a lot of flaws. The two wins have come by a combined five points against a pair of teams nobody expects much from in 2020. Last week, despite beating Jacksonville, the Jaguars put up 480 yards of offense on the Titans defense. A bunch of running backs you never heard of averaged 6.1 yards per carry against the Titans defense. Now they're favored on the road against a Vikings team that loves to run the ball and has Dalvin Cook.
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIN ATS PICKS | +192
4-2 IN LAST 6 TEN ATS PICKS | +185
CAROLINA +6.5
CAROLINA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
10:17 AM
The loss of Christian McCaffery was a huge blow to the Panthers and fantasy owners everywhere, but I see it as an opportunity here. I watched Justin Herbert's entire college career. I've seen him when he's good, and I've seen him when he does things like throw back across his body into double-coverage 30 yards downfield. So you'll have to excuse me if I'm not ready to trust that guy as a favorite yet.
3-1 IN LAST 4 CAR ATS PICKS | +193
DETROIT +5.5
DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
10:15 AM
The Lions are 0-2 after blowing leads in each of their first two games, and now they're hitting the road to take on a Cardinals team that's looked strong to start the season. The difference for Detroit this week will be the return of Kenny Golladay, as his absence has had a major impact on Matthew Stafford and an offense that loved to push the ball vertically last season. That element has been missing this year. It'll be back with Golladay, and while I don't know if the Lions get their first win, they'll get their first cover.
5-1 IN LAST 6 ARI ATS PICKS | +386
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Hank Goldberg
NFL Best Bets
ATLANTA -3
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
Mitch Trubisky against Matt Ryan is a total mismatch. The Bears are typically terrible on the road, and the Falcons are loaded with talent. They're home on the turf, and they're a fast-break team. That will work in their favor and against the Bears.
ARIZONA -5.5
DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
The Lions have lost 11 straight games. They have no pass rush, their cornerbacks are hurt, and they're facing a Cardinals offense that's clicking with Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake and DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona plays an up-tempo offense that Detroit can't possibly keep up with.
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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 27 2020 1:00PM
462 NEP -6.0(-110) Southpoint vs 461 LVR double-dime bet
Analysis: The situation heavily favors New England in this matchup. The Patriots are 42-18 ATS since 2003 off a loss, with a cover margin of over six points per game. Las Vegas is off an emotional win on Monday Night, and now they travel to the east coast on a short week. Under Jon Gruden, the Raiders are 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS against teams that finish the season with a winning record.
My original concern was that New England might not be able to cover margin, but Cam Newton is playing excellent football right now, rejuvenating this New England offense. Newton has completed 71.4% of his passes for 8.8 Y/A, and Vegas has allowed 8.1 Y/A through two weeks.
Las Vegas is also dealing with potential cluster injures on the offensive line in RT Trent Brown and LG Richie Incognito.
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Warren Sharp
Adds:
469 Tennessee Titans first half Over 23.5 -130 (0.5 units)
481 Detroit Lions first half Over 25.5 -120 (0.5 units) [note: we are already on the full game over but this is a value grab - note: if your line is 27 do not bet, stick with over 54 for the game]
487 Green Bay Packers team total Over 23.5 -120 (0.75 units)
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Early week 3 adds:
301 Miami Dolphins Over 46 (0.75 units)
2 adds:
301 Miami Dolphins +3 (0.75 units)
462 New England Patriots -5 (1 unit)
481 Detroit Lions Over 54 (1 unit)
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InkBets
NFL: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 1.909/-110 (3.5 Units)
-It's very, very hard to see a team involving Sean Payton & Drew Brees getting embarrassed on national television in back to back weeks. I expect a concerted effort from the Saints compared to what they put out last week vs the Raiders.
A huge portion of that game was the Raiders controlling the line on offense and being able to milk clock. Marcus Davenport being out proved fatal in that regard, but he's returned to practice. That is a vital piece of the puzzle versus a QB who can scramble and evade as good as anybody in Aaron Rodgers.
Even if Michael Thomas misses another game this week, the Saints having that extra time to prepare without him is pivotal. I don't see the Saints dropping back to back primetime games here. The Packers came back last week from a 3-14 deficit but if they fall behind here they won't have that luxury. If the Saints start out hot -- they won't look back. Another situation where the public is pouring it on the hot team and they will get punished for it. Saints on a slight -3 line at home is a no brainer.
NFL: Buffalo Bills ML @ 1.813/-123 (3 Units)
-I will gladly take the home team here in this game. I'd be far more hesitant to do so, but the Rams travel has been less than ideal especially with travel conditions being abnormal given the pandemic. Back to back weeks of being on the east coast is less than ideal and practice conditions aren't nearly the same. I love the Bills this year and this is a huge swing game for them. People were quick to discredit Josh Allen but he spent the entire season last year without a receiver over 6 feet tall. Now with the addition of Stefon Diggs he leads the NFL in passing yards having a superstar #1 target with some height to him. Now that we've seen two weeks, the Rams beat an overrated Cowboys team as well as an Eagles team that is very evidently pathetic and now people want to buy high on them talking about them looking like the Rams we saw in the Super Bowl. Public is pouring it on the Rams and in a huge statement game I'll take the home team here.
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R.J. White
UNDER 43
TAMPA BAY @ DENVER | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:08 PM
It's hard to see the Broncos scoring a bunch of points in this game with Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay all on the sidelines. The Bucs defense has played pretty well this year despite the Saints scoring 34 points in Week 1, and they've shown last year's elite performance against the run wasn't a fluke. It's possible Tom Brady ruins this Under pick on his own, but I don't see the Bucs running up the score at altitude against a Broncos team that will be looking to get to the next week while focusing on getting healthier. Even though Jeff Driskel's performance last week gives me a little pause, this looks like great value on the Under.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
N.Y. JETS +11.5
N.Y. JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:07 PM
The Jets look like the worst team in football, but what that means is that the market is willing to give bettors a discount that you won't find with any other team. This line was just Colts -7 on the lookahead number, and I don't think Indy's performance against a bad Minnesota team is enough to move a line 4.5 points. The Jets have injury issues at receiver but weren't really exploding with talent at the position in the first place. But this is less a play on the Jets, who have a profitable 0-2 ATS trend in their corner, and more a fade on the Colts, who I believe haven't proven they should be the biggest favorites of the season three weeks in.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
25-13-1 IN LAST 39 IND ATS PICKS | +1039
18-13-2 IN LAST 33 NYJ ATS PICKS | +382
PHILADELPHIA -4.5
CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:06 PM
I'm not buying that the Eagles are bad, and I think they just got embarrassed defensively by a Sean McVay gameplan that took their lunch. But do note that one week after allowing eight sacks against Washington, this Philadelphia O-line held Aaron Donald and Co. sackless on the day despite having to pass a lot in an comeback bid. The Cincinnati defense should be a much easier matchup for this Eagles offense, and I expect a big day from Miles Sanders, who is off the injury report completely, after what we saw the Browns backs do to the Bengals. Plus we get to play a profitable 0-2 ATS trend with Philly. Lay the points.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
16-10 IN LAST 26 CIN ATS PICKS | +499
NEW ENGLAND -5
LAS VEGAS @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:05 PM
I love the value we're getting here on a Patriots team coming off a loss against a Raiders team that just earned an upset win. Over the last five years, the Raiders are on an NFL-worst 11-19 ATS stretch after a win since the start of 2016, while the Patriots are 9-4 ATS after a loss during that same stretch. Derek Carr also struggles on the road in short rest games, where's he's 1-4 ATS. He figures to regress against this defense in a huge letdown spot for Las Vegas. The lookahead line on this game was Patriots -6.5, and that seems closer to what it should be.
15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
8-6 IN LAST 14 LV ATS PICKS | +129
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Mike Tierney
Survivor Pick
Now comes Week Three, and there is no need to wrack your noggin. If the Indianapolis Colts remain in your arsenal of unpicked teams, they are a no-brainer.
As I type these words, Indy is a double-digit favorite over the sad-sack New York Jets, while no other spread is greater than seven.
Why not consider an alternative to the Horseshoes? Let me count the ways — 10, to be exact.
1. The Colts are back home, fresh off a dominant 17-point thrashing of Minnesota.
2. Indy newcomer and ageless QB Philip Rivers owns the third highest pass percentage (77.5) among league starters.
3. Veteran RB Marlon Mack suffers an injury in the opener, leaving the role to rookie Jonathan Taylor, who made a splash with 101 rushing yards.
4. TE Mo Alie-Cox stepped in for ailing Pro Bowler Jack Doyle and caught five balls for 111 yards. Not bad for a player who did not touch a football competitively in college.
5. The Vikes managed 175 measly yards, which would constitute a decent half for most teams.
6. The home-field edge could be heightened with 7,500 fans admitted, three times the limit for the Vikings game.
7. Then there are the Jets, with a pair of double-figure defeats, more recently by 18 against the 49ers, who barely had enough healthy players to deploy.
8. New York has scrounged out three touchdowns, two of them during mop-up time late in decided games.
9. Both games have been all but decided by halftime. The Jets have been outscored 42-6 in first halfs.
10. Coach Adam Tase couldn't resist some colorful mild profanities post-game Sunday, saying, "I'm (bleeped) right now. That (bleep) is no fun, going out there and getting your (bleep) beat."
I bleeping hear ya, Coach.
A half-dozen other teams are favored by six to seven points: Cleveland (over Washington), New England (Las Vegas), the Los Angeles Chargers (Carolina), Philadelphia (Cincinnati), Arizona (Detroit) and Tampa Bay (Denver.)
Tread carefully. All come with flaws. In fact, half of them are stepping away from losses.
After many survivor pools were partly drained in a Week One replete with upsets, form was restored last week.
Seven teams drew considerable interest, according to the website RunYourPool.com, and all skated by. The order of popularity: 49ers, Titans, Packers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chiefs and Steelers.
Pittsburgh, which was my choice, cut it too close, winning by five points after fending off a potential game-winning march by Denver. Color me grateful for no longer having to sweat out another game by the unexpectedly shaky Steelers.
Week 3 Survivor pick: Colts over Jets
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Bill Marzano
PITTSBURGH -210
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
7:50 AM
Houston may have to wait another week for the team's first victory. The Texans rank second to last in the NFL against the run, allowing almost 200 yards per game. The Steelers rank first, allowing just over 66 yards per game. Pittsburgh is tied for second in total defense. Houston is really missing DeAndre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson has been turning the ball over at critical times. Only two teams in the AFC are averaging fewer points than the Texans, and facing this Steelers defense isn't going to be easy. Look for Pittsburgh to grind out another win at home.
8-5 LAST 13 NFL SIDES | +215
L.A. CHARGERS -6.5
CAROLINA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
6:54 AM
The Chargers had to be impressed with the Week 2 performance of rookie Justin Herbert. The Panthers were already struggling because of their defense. But now Carolina will be offensively challenged without their best player. Christian McCaffrey is tied for the NFL lead with four rushing TDs. His absence is really going to affect the team on both sides of the ball. The Chargers' defense is licking their chops, and the offense should feel the same way. Teddy Bridgewater turned the ball over three times last week. Look for Herbert to play with a ton of confidence after nearly upsetting the Chiefs last week.
8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +360
ARIZONA -5.5
DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
6:03 AM
The Cardinals are off to a fantastic 2-0 start and they are a bad matchup for the Lions. Detroit has been horrible on the road the last few years and the defense has been one of the worst in the NFL. The Lions are getting gashed on the ground, allowing over 200 yards per game. Kyler Murray is putting up rushing numbers reminiscent of Michael Vick. DeAndre Hopkins is leading the NFL with 22 catches and should feast on the Detroit defense. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings in Arizona, 0-6 ATS in their last six road games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC opponents. The home team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 overall meetings.
8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +360
3-1 IN LAST 4 DET ATS PICKS | +191
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Micah Roberts
OVER 47
L.A. RAMS @ BUFFALO | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:35 PM
Buffalo has been fortunate to play the Jets and Dolphins in their first two games (1-1 ATS) while the Rams won and covered against both the Cowboys and Eagles. Let’s just say the Rams' rating is seven and eight points better than what the Bills have faced. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has thrived so far, and it's not entirely based on the defenses he's faced. The Rams running game and a trimer Jared Goff have made their balanced offense tough to stop. Over is the play here.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL O/U PICKS | +95
DALLAS +5
DALLAS @ SEATTLE | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:41 PM
The Seahawks made Cam Newton look like it was 2015 again. He was great, but all his receivers were open often. Dallas has much quicker wideouts, and Dak Prescott has done a great job finding them. The Cowboys will score often, and I believe the Seahawks will be chasing for most of the game. Dallas' problems are taking care of the ball and horrible calls by head coach Mike McCarthy. If he just called a vanilla plan on fourth downs they would be 2-0. Hopefully, it’s a lesson learned. Cowboys to cover.
OVER 56
DALLAS @ SEATTLE | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:34 PM
The Cowboys have averaged a 29.5-28.5 score through two games, allowing 802 yards. The Seahawks' average score is 36.5-27.5 with the NFL's worst defense allowing 970 total yards through two wins and two covers. The way the total points have been soaring through two weeks with no crowds and bad tackling, the offenses are loose like in a practice game. The total is still low, I’m on the Over.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL O/U PICKS | +95
10-3 IN LAST 13 DAL O/U PICKS | +675
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Larry Hartstein
NEW ENGLAND -5
LAS VEGAS @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:39 PM
The Raiders were impressive against the Saints, but this is a bad spot, traveling cross-country on a short week to face a Bill Belichick-coached team coming off a loss. Lay it as Cam Newton continues his strong play.
7-5-1 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +155
4-2 IN LAST 6 NE ATS PICKS | +182
N.Y. GIANTS +4
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:20 AM
The 49ers just want to get home without losing any more players to injury. Their pass rush has been decimated, which should allow Daniel Jones to thrive. Look for Dion Lewis to be effective catching passes out of the backfield. For the Giants, this is a golden chance to get Joe Judge his first head-coaching win. Grab the points but don't be surprised by an outright win.
7-5-1 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +155
16-7-1 IN LAST 24 SF ATS PICKS | +828
10-3 IN LAST 13 NYG ATS PICKS | +689
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Colin Cowherd
Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
New England Patriots (-5.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (+5)
Houston Texans (+4.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)
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Bill Marzano
OVER 53
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/27 | 8:20 PM EDT
12:09 PM
This total has jumped up from when it first opened at 51 and expect it to be as high as 54 by game time. The Packers have the number one offense in the NFL, scoring 42 and 43 points in their first two games. Aaron Rodgers is on fire, with six TDs and 0 INTs. The Green Bay defense, however, has been suspect. After the Saints struggled on Monday night, we can expect them to perform better offensively. Drew Brees is clearly missing Michael Thomas but still has plenty of weapons. I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers score 40-plus points again. The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
8-6 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +105
GREEN BAY +3
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/27 | 8:20 PM EDT
11:52 AM
The Packers can win this game outright but will grab the points. Aaron Rodgers is off to a hot start and the offense is rolling right now. Rodgers has tossed six TDs with 0 INTs and Green Bay has scored 42 and 43 points. Aaron Jones has been doing the dirty work out of the backfield and rushed for a career-high 168 yards last week. Drew Brees is struggling and is clearly missing his best weapon in WR Michael Thomas. The Saints are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite.
8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +360
4-0 IN LAST 4 GB ATS PICKS | +400
4-3 IN LAST 7 NO ATS PICKS | +69
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Matt Severance
N.Y. GIANTS +3.5
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:57 PM
The Giants are putrid, yes, and will not have Saquon Barkley (done for year) or Sterling Shepard (IR). However, that Big Blue is getting 3.5 points at home against a Niners team missing Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman is a stunner. If New York can't at least cover against the Niners' JV team, then Joe Judge should be fired already. This line has plummeted since its opening of -6.5. Get it now before it drops to a field goal.
BUFFALO -2
L.A. RAMS @ BUFFALO | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:51 PM
This will be the first time Buffalo is favored vs. a winning team since Week 16 in 2016 vs. Miami. The Bills are 10-1 in their past 11 overall as favorites. West Coast teams are unbeaten on the East Coast this season, granted, but the Rams flew all the way home from Philly last week and now have to fly back East and play again at 10 a.m. Pacific!? Frankly, the Rams' 2-0 record doesn't look at that great now after seeing how the Cowboys and Eagles have played in their other game. Bills win by a field goal.
MINNESOTA +2.5
TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:46 PM
It's absolute desperation time for the 0-2 Vikings as they know a loss here all but ends their playoff hopes even with the additional team added this postseason. Historically, the Vikes have been dominant at home, Week 1 vs. Green Bay aside. Kirk Cousins can't possibly play worse than he did in Week 2. Since 2018, Minnesota is 10-2 ATS (83%) after a loss, the best mark in the NFL. The Titans, meanwhile, are pretty lucky to be 2-0 (0-2 ATS) and will not have top wideout AJ Brown again.
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LV wolf
chargers 1H u21.5
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Nfac
SUNDAY 9-27-20 =
464) Buffalo ML (-125)...($750) via Pinnacle
479) Carolina +7 (-120) - Buy 1/2 Pt...($750) via Pinnacle
488) New Orleans -3 (-115)...($800) via Pinnacle
481) Over 55 Detroit-Arizona...($750) via Pinnacle
462) New England -5...($750) via Westgate
468) NY Giants +4 (-115)...($750) via Bookmaker/Pinny
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Doug... Upstone
7 Unit Play. Take #462 New England -5 over Las Vegas (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
Line Available at Westgate and Circa
This top pick starts as situational play. Las Vegas played last Monday, they had a surprisingly terrific game in their home opener in their new stadium and pulled the upset. Next is a cross-country trip, for an early game with less rest. New England has played well and Cam Newton has exceeded all early expectations. You might have seen Bill Belichick looked even grumpier in his press conferences this week, losing on the final play at Seattle. Belichick teams are 34-15 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in last game, with the point differential +9.7 PPG. The Raiders are allowing 4.9 YPC and over 400 YPG on defense (don't forget they played Carolina in Week 1) and will get a unique game plan from the Pats to exploit their weaknesses. With LVR 5-23 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog, the Patriots roll!
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Mike McClure
MONEY
4:39 PM
DALLAS +5
DALLAS @ SEATTLE | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
All of the talk was about how great Russell Wilson was last week against the Patriots. He was fantastic. However, the Seattle defense really wasn't very good against a New England team that has a significantly weaker receiving group, and a much weaker backfield. The Dallas offensive line will be the difference in this game as they provide running room for Zeke, and enough time for Dak to find Cooper, Gallup, Lamb and Schultz. I make Seattle -2.9 in this game so I'm taking the points with Dallas.
6-2 IN LAST 8 NFL ATS PICKS | +380
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Larry Hartstein
CAROLINA +6.5
CAROLINA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
1:57 PM
I think this line is an overreaction to Christian McCaffrey being out. The Panthers pass defense held Tom Brady to just 217 passing yards last week, and the Chargers, with rookie Justin Herbert possibly starting, don't have the firepower to blow out anyone. Carolina covers.
7-5-1 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +155
6-1-1 IN LAST 8 LAC ATS PICKS | +491
2-1 IN LAST 3 CAR ATS PICKS | +90
PHILADELPHIA -4
CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
1:23 PM
Eagles running back Miles Sanders ran for 95 yards and a touchdown in his season debut last week, and he'll face a Bengals defense that was gashed by the Browns for 215 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Both teams are 0-2, but the Eagles are the more desperate team. I expect them to play that way.
7-5-1 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +155
13-8-1 IN LAST 22 CIN ATS PICKS | +417
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Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
5:42 PM
PITTSBURGH -4
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
I'm going to keep picking against the Texans until the Bookmakers start correcting their lines. Houston is 0-2 and, even though the team has faced the top two teams in the AFC, the Texans never made either game competitive. They won't do it this week either, at Pittsburgh. My model says the Steelers cover more than 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.
4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +290
3-0 IN LAST 3 PIT ATS PICKS | +300
2-1 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS | +90
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WUNDERDOG SPORT PICKS
Game: Detroit Lions (481) @ Arizona Cardinals (482)
Time: Sunday 09/27 4:25 PM Eastern
Pick: Detroit +5.5 (-105) at 5dimes
Finally a break for Detroit after playing the great Chicago defense and the potent Packer offense. They get Pro Bowl WR Kenny Golladay back this week, teaming with above-average veteran QB Matthew Stafford (3 TDs, 2 INTs). They are #11 in the NFL in passing yards without Golladay. The Lions are 31-16 ATS on the road after a loss by 10+ points, plus 24-9 ATS away after a defeat by 14+ points. And NFL road dogs that surrendered 335+ total yards per game the previous campaign are 24-4 ATS after a game where they allowed 450+ yards. It's only Week 3 and rebuilding Arizona is getting too much respect with this betting number. Second-year QB Kyler Murray has as many TDs as picks (2) and the defense is giving up 120 yards rushing per contest (#15). NFL favorites that averaged 5.4 or more yards per play on offense the previous season are 23-51 ATS after gaining 400+ total yards, plus NFL home teams that surrendered 24+ points per game the previous year are 6-28 ATS after scoring 30+ points in the last game. Play Detroit.
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Marco D'Angelo
4% NFL 2 TEAM TEASER OF WEEK
Game: (471) Washington Football Team at (472) Cleveland Browns
Date/Time: Sep 27 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cleveland Browns -1.0 (-110)
NOTE THIS IS A NFL 2 TEAM 6 PT TEASER
LEG 1 CLEVELAND -1
LEG 2 MINNESOTA +8.5
5% NFL GAME OF THE MONTH
Game: (463) Los Angeles Rams at (464) Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Sep 27 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Buffalo Bills -125
5% (464) BUFFALO -125 ML
I waited till later in the week to release this as I felt confident that the public would drive this line down. In fact they drove it down so much that we now have value in taking this game on the Money Line. Buffalo was -2.5 or 3 at the beginning of the week and I liked them then but I also knew the public would love the Rams and now you can lay -1.5 at -110 or take Buffalo on Money Line at -125. At -2.5 or -3 the money line would be -145 or -160. The Rams are in a bad spot playing back to back weeks on the East Coast. Many West Coast teams like the 49ers did this week say on the East Coast when playing back to back games in the Eastern Time Zone to avoid jet lag and not to lose a day traveling. It also must be noted that the two teams the Rams have played so far Dallas and Philly both don’t have good defenses. Buffalo’s defense is good and will put pressure on Jared Goff who when pressured isn’t the same QB. The knock on Buffalo was their anemic offense last year as they averaged just 20 PPG. Well the Bills went out and got QB Josh Allen some weapons. Stefan Diggs was the big signing and in 2 games already has 16 catches for 239 yards. Add John Brown and Cole Beasley to the mix and suddenly this is a very potent passing attack. Josh Allen has completed 57 of 81 passes (70% completions) for 727 passing yards in 2 games. Teams also have to worry about Josh Allen pulling the ball down and running as he has 76 rushing yards to go with his passing yards. This Buffalo team is a complete team and this is their early statement game. Over the last 3 years when the Goff starts and the Rams are an underdog they are just 5-11 SU. BUFFALO 27-17. TAKE BUFFALO as my 5% NFL GAME OF THE MONTH.
SNF PACKERS/SAINTS WINNER
Game: (487) Green Bay Packers at (488) New Orleans Saints
Date/Time: Sep 27 2020 8:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New Orleans Saints -3.0 (-120)
3% NEW ORLEANS -3 (-120)
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Elite Sports Picks
Dallas +5 over Seattle (NFL)
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Insider Sports Report
4* N.Y. Giants +3.5 over San Francisco (NFL)
Range: +5.5 to +1.5
3* Tennessee/Minnesota UNDER 49.5 (NFL)
Range: 51 to 47
3* Atlanta -3 over Chicago (NFL)
Range: -1.5 to -5.5
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National Sports Service
5* Atlanta -3 over Chicago (NFL)
3* Houston +4 over Pittsburgh (NFL)
3* Minnesota +3 over Tennessee (NFL)
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Primetime Sports Picks For 09/27/20
4 Unit --> Tennessee/Minnesota UNDER 49.5 (NFL)
3 Unit --> New England -6 over Las Vegas (NFL)
3 Unit --> Washington +7.5 over Cleveland (NFL)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 09/27/20
4★ Chicago/Atlanta OVER 47 (NFL)
3★ Arizona -5.5 over Detroit (NFL)
3★ Tampa Bay/Denver UNDER 43 (NFL)
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Michael Crosson
NFL Best Bet - Seattle Seahawks -5
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Joe Williams
Eagles/Bengals Over 47.5
Panthers/Chargers Under 44
Cowboys/Seahawks Over 56.5
Lions/Cardinals Over 56
Jets/Colts Under 44
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Glad to have you back, Shaz.