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2020 NFL Draft Odds

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(@shazman)
Posts: 57678
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 4/2/20

 
Posted : April 2, 2020 10:36 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57678
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Super Bowl 54 is in the books and so is the 2019-20 NFL season which means the league will turn its attention to their next largest event – the NFL Draft.

This year’s event won't take place from Las Vegas, Nevada due to the situation surrounding the 'coronavirus' but the festivities are still expected to continue on Thursday, Apr. 23 and run through Saturday, Apr. 25. The NFL Draft has seven rounds and all 32 clubs will participate in the event, drafting players from college football schools.
Contents

NFL Draft 1st Pick Odds
NFL Draft 2nd Pick Odds
Tua Tagovailoa NFL Draft Odds
Top Skill Position Players
Top Defensive Players and Kickers
2020 NFL Draft Order
NFL Draft History

The NFL Draft has become a major event and NFL Draft Odds has become a major betting market. The first round, which takes place on Thursday, is offering up numerous opportunities where bettors can wager on draft odds for the top college football prospects.

NFL Draft 1st Pick Odds
LSU Quarterback Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow, QB, LSU: -3500 Bet Now at FanDuel
Chase Young, DE, Ohio State: +1400
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: +1900
Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia: +2700
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon: +3600
Jacob Eason, QB, Washington: +4300
Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia: +4300
Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Georgia: +4300
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma: +6500
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama: +6500

How to read the Odds:
Bet $3500 on Joe Burrow to win $100
Bet $100 on Chase Young to win $1400

Top Pick Draft Odds Analysis

Joe Burrow comes off a brilliant Heisman Trophy-winning run in leading LSU to an unbeaten season capped by a 42-25 win in the National Championship and is the presumptive No. 1 overall pick.

The Athens (OH) High School product is expected to go first to the Bengals in a move considered such a lock that there’s simply no value in riding the development that it would cost you a $99,000 to win $4,500.

The numbers make Burrow far too “chalky” a choice to realistically back, which means most will likely sit on the sidelines betting-wise. Burrow throwing an orange and black cap and holding up a Cincinnati jersey after hearing Roger Goodell call his name first seems like a lock.
Bet Now on NFL Draft
NFL Draft 2nd Pick Odds

Chase Young, DE, Ohio State: -480 Bet Now at FanDuel
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: +340 Bet Now at FanDuel
Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Georgia: +1700
Jedrick Willis, Jr., OT, Alabama: +2000
Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia: +10000
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon: +10000

How to read the Odds:
Bet $480 on Chase Young to win $100
Bet $100 on Tua Tagovailoa to win $340

Second Pick Analysis

Ohio State’s Chase Young, the consensus top defensive prospect in this draft, is a possibility as well but probably less of an option since Cincy is intent on moving on from long-time starter Andy Dalton. Young, who broke OSU’s single-season record with 16.5 sacks en route to winning multiple awards in becoming 2019’s most decorated defender, should be the No. 2 pick since Washington already has a young quarterback on board to groom in Dwayne Haskins.

It’s worth laying the juice here because I simply don’t see anyone being selected second ahead of Young unless the ‘Skins trade out of the No. 2 spot because someone wants the other remaining top quarterback available. That means there’s some value with Tagovailoa at both No. 1 and No. 2. Below are the and the odds for the top prospects most likely to be taken with the NFL Draft’s top two selections.

Tua Tagovailoa NFL Draft Odds

Where will Tua go? The most intriguing pick this year is which Team will draft Tua Tagovailoa from Alabama. Here are the current Tua odds:
Alabama Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins: -150 Bet Now at FanDuel
Chargers: +195 Bet Now at FanDuel
Redskins: +340
Raiders: +1500
Lions: +1600 Bet Now at FanDuel
Panthers: +1900
Jaguars: +2000
Bengals: +2100
Buccaneers: +4800

NFL Draft Props - Tua Tagovailoa

Tagovailoa Draft Position: Over 2.5 -300, Under +220
Tagovailoa Going No. 1 +1900 (Bet $100 to win $1900)
Tagovailoa Going No. 2 +210 (Bet $100 to win $210)
Tagovailoa Going No. 3 -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Tua Tagovailoa Draft Pick Analysis

It remains to be seen whether media reports are reliable enough to get us all intel on how Tagovailoa fares in individual workouts, but the possibility exists that we won’t get that information. To properly wager on Tagovailoa, who could absolutely be the No. 2 pick if he demonstrates the ability that made him college football’s top prospect entering the 2019 season.

There aren’t many quarterbacks out there that are both mobile and accurate, things Tagovailoa does at an extremely high level. Barring an injury-relate setback, I can’t imagine he’ll be available after the No. 3 pick is made. Young, arguably the best player in the draft, makes it impossible to wager that Tagovailoa will go second since he’s such a great fit for Washington, but Detroit could take the Alabama product or trade down to No. 5 or 6 with Miami, L.A. or someone else, making him a very likely choice with the third selection.

Top Skill Position Players

While quarterbacks usually steal all the buzz in the NFL Draft, there are plenty of other skilled players available and bettors can wager on those markets as well.

NFL Draft Betting Odds on who will be the first running back, wide receiver and tight end selected are available and there is plenty of value on the board. Georgia RB D'Andre Swift
NFL Draft First Running Back Taken Odds

D’Andre Swift, Georgia: -120 Bet Now at FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin: -110 Bet Now at FanDuel
JK Dobbins, Ohio State: +750
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU: +3200
AJ Dillon, Boston College: +6000
Zack Moss, Utah: +7500

NFL Draft First Wide Receiver Taken Odds

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama: -120 Bet Now at FanDuel
CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma: +120 Bet Now at FanDuel
Henry Ruggs III, OT, Alabama: +700 Bet Now at FanDuel
Tee Higgins, Clemson: +2000
Justin Jefferson, LSU: +3200
KJ Hamler, Penn State: +4200

NFL Draft First Tight End Taken Odds

Cole Kmet, Notre Dame: -110 Bet Now at FanDuel
Adam Trautman, Dayton: +420
Brycen Hopkins, Purdue: +750
Thaddeus Moss, LSU: +750
Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri: +900
Hunter Bryant, Washington: +1000
Harrison Bryant, FL Atlantic: +1200
Jared Pinkey, Vanderbilt: +1200
Colby Parkinson, Stanford: +2000

NFL Draft Predictions
Top Skill Position Players
NFL Draft Odds
First Running Back Taken
Best Bet: D'Andre Swift is first RB selected (-120)

Georgia’s D’Andre Swift and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor will each have a chance to be starters next season and could both be first-round picks. Swift, who gets the edge here as to who goes highest due to being a better pass-catching threat, may not end up being as special as Taylor. The former Badgers star is the reigning two-time Doak Walker Award winner, but in the rightfully cynical world of NFL talent evaluation, the 6,174 yards he gained on the ground over the last three years sounds like a ton of mileage.

Taylor did more than triple the damage as a receiver as a junior than he did in his first two years, so he’s capable of getting the job done there, but Swift is indeed the superior receiving option of the backfield. The ‘Dawgs standout got fewer than half the carries over the last three years and ran a 4.49 to Taylor’s faster 4.41, so he’s right in the mix at the top despite the less accomplished college career. I believe Swift will go first but Taylor may end up being amazing. This will be a fit pick either way, but I think Swift ends up hearing his name called first.

NFL Draft Odds - First Wide Receiver Taken
Best Bet: CeeDee Lamb is first WR selected (+120)

There are multiple fantastic receivers in this draft who should make an immediate impact. The 49ers’ Deebo Samuel and Titans’ A.J. Brown helped their teams go deep into the playoffs, but this year’s class features to boast guys capable of immediately emerging as No. 1 options. Baltimore’s Marquise Brown was the first wideout taken last April with the 25th selection and also flourished when healthy, but there should be at least three players taken before the spot “Hollywood” was chosen in ‘19.

Alabama star Jerry Jeudy and fellow burner Henry Ruggs III are going to go top 20. Jeudy is brilliant and Ruggs ran a 4.27, the fastest time at the combine. LSU’s Justin Jefferson was a major factor in earning a championship there are a number of others who will become instant contributors like Colorado’s Laviska Shenault, Clemson’s Tee Higgins, Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk, Baylor’s Denzel Mims and Penn State’s KJ Hamler.

While those guys will be tremendous, Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb looks like the best of the crop. After putting on a ridiculous show at the combine and helping both Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts put up eye-popping numbers, there are few doubts that the Sooners star will emerge as a terrific playmaker at the pro level. I believe he’ll beat out the ‘Bama boys in becoming the first receiver taken.

Top Defensive Players and Kickers

While the guys who score all the touchdowns usually receive most of the attention in the NFL Draft, bettors shouldn't forget the key defensive players or the individuals known for their game-winning kicks.

NFL Draft Betting Odds are also available on which Safety, Linebacker and Kicker will be selected in the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft.
NFL Draft First Safety Taken Odds

Xavier McKinney, Alabama -190
Grant Delpit, LSU +160
Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota +1000
Ashtyn Davis, California +1700
Geno Stone, Iowa +1700
Terrell Burgess, Utah +2200
Jalen Elliott, Notre Dame +3200

NFL Draft First Linebacker Taken Odds

Isaiah Simmons, Clemson -4500
Patrick Queen, LSU +1200
Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma +1500
Troy Dye, Oregon +2600
Akeem Davis-Gaither, Appalachian State +3200
Willie Gay Jr., Mississippi State +3200

NFL Draft First Kicker Taken Odds

Rodrigo Blankenship, Georgia -175
Dominik Eberle, Utah State +250
Tyler Bass, Georgia Southern +350
JJ Molson, UCLA +1500
Sam Sloman, Miami-Ohio +1500
Jonathan Song, TCU +2000
Cooper Rothe, Wyoming +3500
Logan Justus, Indiana +5000
Matt Ammendola, Oklahoma State +5000

2020 NFL Draft Order

(2019 Records and/or Trades)
1. Cincinnati Bengals (2-14)
2. Washington Redskins (3-13)
3. Detroit Lions (3-12-1)
4. New York Giants (4-12)
5. Miami Dolphins (5-11)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)
7. Carolina Panthers (5-11)
8. Arizona Cardinals (5-10-1)
9. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10)
10. Cleveland Browns (6-10)
11. New York Jets (7-9)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (7-9)
13. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
15. Denver Broncos (7-9)
16. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
17. Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
18. Miami Dolphins (from 8-8 PIT)
19. Las Vegas Raiders (from 8-8 CHI)
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from 9-7 LAR)
21. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)
22. Buffalo Bills (10-6)
23. New England Patriots (12-4)
24. New Orleans Saints (13-3)
25. Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
26. Miami Dolphins (from 10-6 HOU)
27. Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
28. Baltimore Ravens (14-2)
29. Tennessee Titans (9-7)
30. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
31. San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
32. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

The NFL Draft order is determined by the standings at the end of the regular season and the NFL team with the worst record will select first in the NFL Draft and each team will follow up to the 20th selection. The remaining 12 teams that qualified for the playoffs will be placed in order of their elimination during the postseason.

The Cincinnati Bengals went 2-14 in the 2019 regular season and have earned the top spot in the upcoming draft while the Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl 54, which means they'll have the last selection in the first round.

The Miami Dolphins have three first round picks, acquiring two from selections via trades from the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans.

The Las Vegas Raiders have two first picks, acquiring a selection via trade from the Chicago Bears.

The Jacksonville Jaguars also have two first round selections, their own pick and an additional selection from the Los Angeles Rams.

The Four teams that don't have first round picks in the 2020 NFL Draft are:

Chicago Bears
Houston Texans
Los Angeles Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Draft History

"If you don't have a quarterback, you don't have a chance!"

Looking at the recent NFL Draft History, it's obvious that teams have followed that comment. Quarterbacks have been selected first in four of the last five drafts and eight of the last 11 going back to 2009.
2019 - Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals
2018 - Baker Mayfield QB Cleveland Browns
2017 - Myles Garrett DE Cleveland Browns
2016 - Jared Goff QB Los Angeles Rams
2015 - Jameis Winston QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2014 - Jadeveon Clowney DE Houston Texans
2013 - Eric Fisher T Kansas City Chiefs
2012 - Andrew Luck QB Indianapolis Colts
2011 - Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers
2010 - Sam Bradford QB St. Louis Rams
2009 - Matthew Stafford QB Detroit Lions

 
Posted : April 2, 2020 10:44 am
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