Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 3/6/20
XFL Week 5 Stuff
Betting Stats heading into Week 5:
Favorites: 10-6 SU & 8-8 ATS
Home Teams: 11-5 SU & 9-7 ATS
Home Favorites: 6-1 SU & 4-3 ATS
Over/Under: 5-11
Armadillo's Write-Up
Seattle (1-3) @ Houston (4-0) (-13.5, 45.5):
— Seattle lost three of four games, scoring 16 ppg.
— Three of four Dragon games stayed under the total.
— Seattle was outscored 54-35 in losing both its road games.
— Houston covered three of first four games, scoring 31.5 ppg.
— Three of Roughnecks’ four games went over.
— Last three games, Houston is +7 in turnovers.
— Only one of their four wins was by more than 7 points.
New York (2-2) @ Dallas (2-2) (-8, 37):
— Home team won/covered all four New York games.
— Guardians lost their two road games, 27-0/29-9.
— All four New York games stayed under the total.
— Guardians have been outscored 32-15 in 2nd half of games.
— Dallas QB Jones hurt his knee LW, won’t play here.
— All four Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Last three games, Renegades are -7 in turnovers.
— Dallas has yet to lead at halftime (0-2-2).
St Louis (3-1) (-3.5, 38.5) @ Washington DC (2-2) :
— BattleHawks won/covered three of their four games.
— St Louis converted 32 of 62 third down plays, is +80 in plays run.
— In BattleHawks’ only loss, they outgained Houston 390-238.
— St Louis has run ball for 151.5 ypg.
— Home team won/covered all four Washington games.
— Defenders were outscored 64-9 in their last two games.
— Three of four Washington games stayed under total.
— Defenders threw ball for TOTAL of 159 yards in last two games.
Tampa Bay (1-3) @ Los Angeles (1-3) (-1, 40.5):
— Tampa Bay lost both road games, outscored 40-12.
— Vipers’ OC Mumme broke his leg during last week’s game.
— Three of four Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
— Vipers gained 365+ yards in three of four games.
— Los Angeles lost three of four games; they were +5 in turnovers in the win.
— Wildcats are only XFL team that hasn’t run for 100+ yards in any game.
— Last two games, LA converted only 6-22 third down plays.
XFL Week 5 Betting Odds, Preview, Picks, Results, Futures and Trends
Brian Bitler
XFL Week 5 Odds
The opening betting lines for Week 5 of the XFL are:
Seattle at Houston: (-13.5, Total 46)
New York at Dallas: (-8.5, Total 37)
St. Louis at DC: (-3, Total 39)
Tampa Bay at Los Angeles: (-1.5, Total 40.5)
XFL Week 5 Best Bets
Four weeks of the XFL season are now complete and we're really noticing some players that NFL scouts might have missed the boat on. One of those players is quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, who was the XFL Player of the Week for Week 4 leading St. Louis to another home victory while going 20-of-27 for 327 passing yards and one touchdown.
Through for weeks, I sit at 6-10 with my "Best Bets" and after watching all sixteen games, they’re seems to be some real fluctuations with teams. I have made more adjustments to my ratings grid and plan to have a successful Week 5.
Let's break down the games.
XFL Games for Saturday, March 7
Seattle Dragons at Houston Roughnecks
(ABC, 2:00 p.m. ET)
The best in the XFL takes on the worst on Saturday as we have the 4-0 Houston Roughnecks meeting up with the 1-3 Seattle Dragons. I have been fooled by Seattle in most of their games this season, refusing to believe they were as bad as the professionals were saying. Thirteen points is a ton of points to give any team. Despite losing on the road in Week 4, the Dragons really turned around that game in the second half against St. Louis.
Dragons quarterback B.J. Daniels, the former South Florida Bulls standout, covered that game for us and we'll look to them this week as well. Yes Houston is the best in the XFL and they are at home, but they come in off a division rival road win and I believe they'll come out flat for this game. Look for Seattle to keep this one within a touchdown, as we ride the Dragons here in the Lone Star State.
Best Bet: Seattle +13
New York Guardians at Dallas Renegades
(FOX, 5:00 p.m. ET)
Dallas had a major blow last week in their loss to intra-state rival Houston as quarterback Landry Jones went don’t with a knee injury and it appears that his season might be in jeopardy. Somehow even with that news, Dallas has been installed as a healthy eight-point favorite at home versus New York.
The Guardians had a resurgence in Week 4 thanks to 3rd string back-up quarterback and now starter Luis Perez, who had a nice day last week. Perez finished 18-of-26 for 150 passing yards and one touchdown. The best thing about the Guardians is their defense and I think that will show up against the Renegades, which makes me believe that the final outcome will stay within a touchdown. Look for Phillip Nelson, the former East Carolina quarterback, to struggle as Dallas wins here but my guess is by a field goal. I'll take the road 'dogs and expect the Guardians tp cover here as visitors.
Best Bet: New York +8
XFL Games for Sunday, Mar. 8
St. Louis BattleHawks at DC Defenders
(FS1, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Wow how the mighty have fallen! The Defenders were sitting at 2-0 after two weeks and quarterback Cardale Jones was looking like a candidate to claim the XFL Most Valuable Player award. After back-to-back beat downs on the road, the most recent a 25-0 thumping by the winless Vipers, the setbacks have dropped the Defenders into dead last in the power rankings put out by ESPN. Jones was 9-of-22 with just 72 yards and an interception in last week's loss at Tampa Bay.
Despite getting blanked in Florida, I believe this Defenders team will be playing with their heads on fire come Sunday. St. Louis has looked great, lead by one of the top quarterbacks in the league (Ta’amu) and the Battlehawks are a very impresive squad. However, I believe the oddsmakers have caught up with them and they are overvalued here on the road. Look for D.C. to bounce back and cover this one as we take the Defenders with the points.
Best Bet: DC +4
Tampa Bay Vipers at Los Angeles Wildcats
(ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
We finish out our week five XFL card with a very interesting game and one that looks like it could be a potential pitfall for gamblers. Tampa Bay opened up as road favorite in the first two weeks of the season but that resulted in two losses. After getting their first win of the season in Week 4, a few sportsbooks opened the Vipers as short road favorites for this matchup.
Since the early numbers came out, bettors have made their presence known by moving this line to Wildcats -2, which is a big adjustment. Clearly, the experts believe that Tampa Bay’s win last week was not a fluke and it should be noted that the Vipers were preseason favorites to be one of XFL’s best teams. As far as this game goes I would wait until kick off to get the best line but I will be in on Tampa Bay to keep the momentum going. Ride the Vipers to grab the road win on the West Coast.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay +2
XFL Weekly Betting Results
Home teams posted a 3-1 record in Week 4 and we saw a pair of underdogs cash in front of their fans. New York (+7) knocked off Los Angeles 17-14 on Saturday while Tampa Bay earned its first win of the season on Sunday with a 25-0 win over DC as a five-point home 'dog.
With the Vipers victory, all eight teams in the XFL have at least one win through four weeks. The only unbeaten team remains Houston, who sits at 4-0. The Roughnecks have gone 2-2 against the spread for bettors.
The 'under' has gone 11-5 (69%) in 16 XFL games this season and two teams helping the cause are New York and Dallas. The Guardians and Renegades are the only two teams to see the 'under' cash in all four of their contests. Houston is the only team that has leaned to the 'over' with a 3-1 mark to the high side.
Week 4
Home/Away: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Favorites/Underdogs: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
Over/Under: 1-3
Overall
Home/Away: 10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS
Favorites/Underdogs: 11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS
Over/Under: 5-11
XFL STANDINGS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Team SU ATS Over/Under PF PA Home Away
St. Louis BattleHawks 3-1 2-2 2-2 91 62 2-0 1-1
DC Defenders 2-2 2-2 1-3 67 83 1-0 1-2
New York Guardians 2-2 2-2 0-4 49 73 2-0 0-2
Tampa Bay Vipers 1-3 2-2 1-3 37 40 1-1 0-2
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Team SU ATS Over/Under PF PA Home Away
Houston Roughnecks 4-0 2-2 3-1 126 88 2-0 2-0
Dallas Renegades 2-2 2-2 0-4 78 72 0-2 2-0
Los Angeles Wildcats 1-3 1-3 2-2 88 88 1-1 0-2
Seattle Dragons 1-3 2-2 1-3 64 87 1-1 0-2
Future Odds to win 2020 XFL Championship
After posting another dominating win in Week 4, the St. Louis BattleHawks moved from 5/2 odds to 6/5 (Bet $100 to win $120) to capture the inaugural XFL Championship. New York and Seattle both sit at the bottom of the eight-team league as 25/1 long shot wagers.
Current (Opening)
Houston Roughnecks 6/5 (5/1)
St. Louis BattleHawks 2/1 (10/1)
Dallas Renegades 7/1 (5/2)
D.C. Defenders 12/1 (6/1)
Los Angeles Wildcats 16/1 (8/1)
Tampa Bay Vipers 16/1 (5/1)
Seattle Dragons 25/1 (16/1)
New York Guardians 25/1 (5/1)
by: Andrew Caley
XFL BETTING TRENDS
Some quick notes through four weeks:
As mentioned, scoring dipped again in Week 4. After Week 3 saw points rise to 45.8 per game, scoring dropped back down to 35.5 per contest last week. Not surprisingly, the Unders went 3-1 once again. That makes Unders now 11-5 for the 2020 XFL schedule. The average Over/Under total for Week 5 is a touch above 40 points and we have our lowest total to date: 37 points for Saturday’s game between New York and Dallas.
Home teams are 11-5 SU in the XFL and are outscoring visitors by an average score of 23.9-15.3. That said, books may be valuing home field a little too much because despite those numbers, home teams are just 9-7 ATS versus the XFL pointspreads. The thing to really look out for when it comes to travel is the cross-country trek. There has been one game in each of the first four weeks where a team has traveled across the country to play a game. Those traveling teams are 0-4 SU and ATS and score an average of only 12.8 points per game. This week’s unfortunate journey team is Tampa Bay, which must head out to L.A. for its Week 5 matchup.
It looks like a few teams have made a switch at quarterback, at least for this week. Taylor Cornelius led the Vipers to their first victory last week and should keep starter Aaron Murray on the bench for the time being. Thankfully, Jim Zorn finally made the right decision to give B.J. Daniels a shot for Seattle and it paid immediate dividends. Daniels threw for 100 yards and a score while adding another 84 yards on the ground. Here’s hoping Zorn sticks with him. And lastly, the Guardians looked competent with Luis Perez under center, leading them to a victory over the Wildcats. Hopefully, this means we can see a bump in quality of play moving forward.
SEATTLE DRAGONS AT HOUSTON ROUGHNECKS (-12.5, 46)
The Roughnecks are clearly the class of the XFL. They're a perfect 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) after last week’s 27-20 win in the "Texas Throwdown" over the Renegades. Quarterback P.J. Walker is the leading candidate to be the league’s first MVP. He has 12 touchdowns to just two picks and should have success against a Dragons defense that allows the second-most yards per play in the league.
For the Dragons, Daniels injected some much needed life into the offense when he came into the game last week. And while the Roughnecks score the most points per game in the XFL, they're susceptible to giving up big plays of their own and as a result, give up the most points per game in the league. Additionally, the Dragons, despite never eclipsing 20 points in a game this season, rank fourth in scoring on the road. The 12.5 points just seems like a lot in this spot. Take the Dragons as big dogs and consider the Over as well.
Pick: Dragons +12.5 AND Over 46
NEW YORK GUARDIANS AT DALLAS RENEGADES (-7, 37)
While this league can be tough to figure out, I have to say this is one of the most baffling lines I’ve seen so far. Renegades QB Landry Jones re-aggravated his knee injury and is expected to miss two weeks. Dallas lost the only game Jones didn’t start, falling 15-9 to the BattleHawks back in Week 1 while allowing St. Louis to run for 4.5 yards per carry in that contest.
The bigger problem is that the Renegades are starting Phillip Nelson. The backup completed 33 of 42 passes in that game but had a miniscule 5.2 yards per attempt, threw a pick and was sacked four times. New York is one of the better teams in the league at getting after the quarterback.
The Guardians looked much better with Perez playing quarterback. They didn’t ask him to do too much, but he was efficient and made most of the right reads. Asking the Renegades to cover seven points in this spot seems like a bit much.
Pick: Guardians +7
ST. LOUIS BATTLEHAWKS AT DC DEFENDERS (+4.5, 38.5)
What in the world happened to the Defenders? DC was looking like one of the real contenders in the XFL after two weeks. Then a two-game road trip saw it go to L.A. and a winless Tampa and come out 0-2 SU and ATS, scoring just nine points total. It’s out of the frying pan and into the fire this week, as the Defenders host the East-leading BattleHawks.
The Defenders' troubles all start with Cardale Jones. The former Buckeye is completing just 46 percent of his passes for 175 yards with no touchdowns and five picks the last two weeks. If the Defenders want to turn things around, it starts with him. You would expect Pep Hamilton to have his team fired up for this matchup, particularly at home, but it’s hard to have any faith in the Defenders at this point.
While I’m not completely sold on this BattleHawks team (I feel like I’ve been on the wrong side in all of their games), they have the biggest surprise of the league in QB Jordan Ta’amu and should be motivated to prove they're the beasts of the East.
Pick: BattleHawks -4.5
TAMPA BAY VIPERS AT LOS ANGELES WILDCATS (-2.5, 38.5)
The Wildcats feel victim to the XFL’s cross-country curse last week, losing at New York 17-14 as 7.5-point road faves, but I like them to bounce back in Week 5. Despite the loss, the Wildcats looked like the better team in Week 4, outgaining the Guardians by a wide margin. Quarterback Josh Johnson had another solid day, passing for 325 yards and two more scores, and has been supported by a Los Angeles defense that's allowed just 2.3 yards per play over the last two games.
On the other side, the Vipers might be primed for a letdown spot. They're coming off their first win of the season, but have to travel across the country (which hasn't worked out well in this league). And while Cornelius looked better last week, his play overall has still been inconsistent at best as the Vipers gained just 3.3 yards per play in the win. He's also thrown at least one pick in all three games he's played.
The Vipers have put up 27 and 25 points the last two weeks, but in the end Johnson and his solid receiving corps will prove too much.
Pick: Wildcats -2.5 AND Over 38.5