Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Super Bowl LIV
Super Bowl 54 - Chiefs vs. 49ers
Super Bowl 54 will take place on Feb. 2, 2020 at Hard Rock Stadium from Miami Gardens, Florida and this year’s matchup will feature the Kansas City Chiefs against the San Francisco 49ers.
Super Bowl 54 Betting Odds
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out an opening line of Pick ‘em for Super Bowl 54 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.
The early money came in on the Chiefs and the SuperBook is now holding Kansas City -1 while a few other betting shops in the United States have gone to 1 ½.
The ‘over/under' opened at 51 ½ at the SuperBook and early wagers moved the line to 52 ½.
Chiefs vs. 49ers - Record Breakdown
Overall Record
Chiefs: 14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS, 10-8 O/U
49ers: 15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 9-8-1 O/U
Away Record
Chiefs: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U
49ers: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, 3-4-1 O/U
Record vs. Playoff Teams
Includes Divisional and Championship Results
Chiefs: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 7-1 O/U
49ers: 4-3 SU, 6-1 ATS, 3-3-1 O/U
Head-to-Head - 49ers & Chiefs
Last Meeting: 2018 Regular Season - Kansas City 38 San Francisco 27
The Chiefs defeated the 49ers 38-27 as 5.5-point home favorites in Week 3 of the 2018 regular season. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw three touchdown passes in the win while San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo sustained a season-ending knee injury in the loss.
Super Bowl Betting History - 49ers & Chiefs
San Francisco
The 49ers have appeared in the Super Bowl six times, going 5-1 overall. San Francisco won four Super Bowls in the 1980's and one in 1994 before losing in its last appearance in 2012. The 'over' has cashed in four of San Francisco's last five Super Bowl appearances, including the 34-31 loss to Baltimore on a 48 total.
Super Bowl History - San Francisco
Super Bowl Year Location Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
XVI 1982 Pontiac, MI San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -1 (48) San Francisco 26 Cincinnati 21 Favorite-Under
XIX 1985 Stanford, CA San Francisco vs. Miami San Francisco -3.5 (53.5) San Francisco 38 Miami 16 Favortie-Over
XXIII 1989 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -7 (48) San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 16 Underdog-Under
XXIV 1990 New Orleans, LA San Franciscovs. Denver San Francisco -12 (48) San Francisco 55 Denver 10 Favorite-Over
XXIX 1995 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. San Diego San Francisco -18.5 (53.5) San Francisco 49 San Diego 26 Favorite-Over
XLVII 2013 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Baltimore San Francisco -4.5 (48) Baltimore 34 San Francisco 31 Underdog-Over
Kansas City
Kansas City owns a 1-1 all-time record in the Super Bowl and the lone loss came in the first installment to Green Bay, a 35-10 decision. The Chiefs rebounded in Super Bowl IV, defeating Minnesota 23-7 as 12-point underdog.
Super Bowl History - Kansas City
Super Bowl Year Location Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
I 1967 Los Angeles, CA Green Bay vs. Kansas City Green Bay -14 (N/A) Green Bay 35 Kansas City 10 Favorite
IV 1970 New Orleans, LA Kansas City vs. Minnesota Minnesota -12 (39) Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 Underdog-Under
Super Bowl Total Analysis
Matt Blunt
Super Bowl 54 Total (O/U) Analysis
We are still quite a ways out from the big game, but all this prep time before the Super Bowl is great for bettors like myself who love to dig deep into the data, historical and otherwise, to see if any lightly discussed edges arise.
With this year's total already getting bumped up quite a bit initially, you will see many arguments for both sides of the full game total in the coming days. But there are other ways to attack the total for the Super Bowl, and they include things like first quarter and first-half total plays as well. And while it can be easy to dismiss whatever happened in a Super Bowl years ago as non-relevant to this specific game, similar historical scenarios still exist and we can use them to potentially help strengthen a position.
So before we get into the historical 1st Quarter and 1st Half results for the Cheifs and Niners this specifc year, let's take a broader trip through history to see if there is anything that becomes a shiny enough data nugget to invest in.
Super Bowl 54 Over-Under (O/U) Betting Odds
Odds provided by FanDuel (IN, NJ, PA & WV only)
Odds Subject to Change - T&C's Apply, 21+
1st Quarter: Over 10 (-125) or Under 10 (+105)
1st Half: Over 27 (+100) or Under 27 (-120)
Full Game: Over 54 (-110) or Under 54 (-110)
Super Bowl History: 1st quarter
While I don't have the historical lines for 1st quarter totals in the Super Bowl, it was easy enough to go through the previous 53 games box scores and come away with some findings. I mean, the Super Bowl is a game where nervous starts are quite prevalent for teams, as the magnitude of the game really can hit guys early. Also, no team wants to fall behind big early, so conservatism tends to rule the day in 1st quarters of the big game.
Through 53 played Super Bowls, the average combined point total we've seen in the 1st quarter of those games is 8 points. Nine different times we've had scoreless first frames, and oddly enough, those full game totals in those scoreless first quarter games has ended up with a 5-4 'over/under' record overall. So those of you that may already be eyeing an 'over' play for this year's game, it may pay off to wait and save part of your stake for some In-Game Wagering.
Should you get a slow start – three of those nine scoreless 1st quarters have come in the past five years – the in-game total will be a lot lower then the current line, and we have seen teams explode following that slow start. That wasn't able to happen in last year's game, but the four other times a scoreless 1st quarter in the Super Bowl has happened this century, we've seen the games finish with 62 (SB LI), 52 (SB XLIX), 45 (SB XXXIX) and 61 (SB XXXVIII) points. Keep that in mind as you follow this game along.
But what about past Super Bowls that have had an identical scenario to what we've got this year.
Well, here are some of those 1st quarter betting facts.
-- Super Bowls that have been played with a #1 seed vs #2 seed have a 1st quarter scoring average of 9.307 points in 13 previous occurrences, but when you isolate #1 NFC teams vs #2 AFC Teams, that number does rise up to 11.714 points in seven occurrences. With this year's number juiced to the high side of 10, there is no real great edge here alone.
-- Super Bowls that have been played with a total that closed in the 50's have a 1st quarter scoring average of 8 points in 11 previous occurrences, but only twice (SB XXIX and SB XIX) were there more then 10 points scored in the 1st quarter. Ironically enough, the San Francisco 49ers were involved in both of them.
-- Super Bowls that have closed with a point-spread of -3 or less have a 1st quarter scoring average of 6 points in 15 occurrences, and again have only cleared 10 points twice in that time. Even still, the seven times it's happened this century, the full game O/U record is 5-2 to the 'over', as it's happened six times this past decade alone.
-- Super Bowls played in Miami have a 1st quarter scoring average of 9.8 points in 10 occurrences, as this location has actually been much more kind to 1st quarter 'over' bets. The last four Super Bowls played in Miami have all finished with at least 10 points in the first frame.
-- Super Bowls that have closed with the AFC team has the favorite (of any number) have a 1st quarter scoring average of 6 points in 28 occurrences, and have only hit 10 points or more three times in 15 tries this century.
If you are to average all those first quarter historic point totals that have had scenarios that apply to this year's game, you get a number of 7.82 points. That's nearly a full FG below this year's current number, and if 10.5's start popping up, going low may be the way to go.
Super Bowl History: 1st Half Over-Under Notes
Continuing on with those same applicable historical scenarios for this year's game, let's take a look at how some of these 1st halves have played out.
-- Super Bowls that have been played with a #1 seed vs #2 seed have a 1st half scoring average of 23.769 points in 13 previous occurrences, but when you isolate #1 NFC teams vs #2 AFC Teams, that number does rise up to 25.14 points in seven occurrences.
-- Super Bowls that have been played with a total that closed in the 50's have a 1st half scoring average of 21.18 points in 11 previous occurrences, but only twice (SB XXIX and SB XIX) were there more then 24 points scored in the 1st half. Again, the San Francisco 49ers were involved in both of them.
-- Super Bowls that have closed with a point-spread of -3 or less have a 1st half scoring average of 20.33 points in 15 occurrences, and have hit 27 or more points in four of those games.
-- Super Bowls played in Miami have a 1st half scoring average of 21.4 points in 10 occurrences. And just like 1st quarter wagers, the Miami site has been kind to high-scoring first halves, as 30+ 1st half points have been scored in three of the last six times the city of Miami has hosted.
-- Super Bowls that have closed with the AFC team has the favorite (of any number) have a 1st half scoring average of 19.928 points in 28 occurrences, and have only hit 27 points or more six different times. That's a 21.4% clip.
So what can we take from all that history?
Well, what does stand out is how much the 'under' in both the 1st quarter and 1st half this year appears to be a solid play. You average out all those averages for the same scenario's this year's game is facing, and the 1st half total comes out to 21.322, with a 1st quarter total of 7.82 (mentioned above). Both of those numbers give you plenty of wiggle room to still stay low a the current numbers.
But let's say for instance, we eliminate the “Super Bowls played in Miami” historical angle simply because it carries the least significance. Then you've got 1st quarter averages of 7.325 points scored, and 1st half averages of 21.302. Not a big change by any means, but it does bring up one historical fact that was too juicy to keep to myself.
If you go back through all the Super Bowls and look for one that had seeds of #1 vs #2 playing, a point spread of -3 or less, a total in the 50's, and the AFC team as the favorite, you get one Super Bowl that fits all that criteria:
Super Bowl LI between New England and Atlanta, the game that will forever be remembered as the 28-3 choke job by the Falcons.
That just so happens to be a game that current San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has to remember vividly, as he was the Falcons offensive coordinator then. Funny how the connections can come full circle, and that was also one of those games where we got a scoreless 1st quarter, 24 points in the 1st half, and ultimately an 'over' ticket cashing for the full game.
Will this year's total result be similar?
2019 Team History – Kansas City Chiefs
Historical angles are always nice, but current data on these teams is ultimately more important as they are the guys out on the field. So, let's go through a similar exercise with both teams.
-- Kansas City games had 10 or more combined points scored in the 1st quarter 12 times in 18 games this year, landing on 10 exactly in five of those occurrences. The average total 1st quarter points in Chiefs games this year was 11.55 points per game.
-- KC themselves put up an average of 5.38 points in the 1st quarter, and were blanked six different times
-- Kansas City games averaged 28 points in the 1st half through 18 contests, but they've been held at 27 or less 11 different times this year, including a stretch of eight straight games to finish the year.
-- In KC road games this year, they averaged total points of 11.25 in the 1st quarter and 26.875 in the 1st half. Basically right where the numbers are for the Super Bowl, as six of those eight road games had at least 26 total points in the 1st half.
2019 Team History – San Francisco 49ers
-- San Francisco games averaged 10.722 points in the 1st quarter. 12 of their 18 games this season also finished with at least 10 points scored in the opening frame.
-- SF themselves put up an average of 6.66 points in the 1st quarter this year, and were only blanked four times, one of which was their heavy monsoon game in Washington
-- San Francisco games averaged 24.05 points combined in the 1st half, and landed on 27 or more points nine different times (50%)
-- In SF road games this year, they averaged total points of 12 in the 1st quarter and 23.5 in the 1st half, as only half of those eight road games finished with a 1st half score of 27 or more points.
As you can tell, it's this year's numbers from both teams that are highly influential in posting the current numbers the markets are dissecting, and in all instances, both teams have results right around the totals for the 1st quarter and 1st half. It's why you've got to be willing to dig for edges elsewhere, and it's why I brought up those historical Super Bowl angles first. They can be used as some out of the box thinking to help formulate your plan of attack for this game.
Final Thoughts:
With minimal to take from the two respective teams track record this year, it's the historical angles that side overwhelmingly with the 'unders' in the 1st quarter and 1st half that I can't seem to ignore. Remember, it's not like we haven't seen great offenses (KC) go up against great defenses (SF) in the Super Bowl before, so even with both organizations propensity for putting up points in bunches this year, I'm not sure that will be the case this season.
Cautious starts have been the norm for Super Bowls this entire century – only three of 20 Super Bowls this century have opened up with 11 or more points in the 1st quarter – and I'm not sure that changes here. Having two weeks to prepare for this game is a big part of those past results, and I would expect both defensive coordinators to have their units extremely ready to go from the outset.
KC's got plenty of confidence they can come back from a multi-score deficit given how their first two playoff games have gone, but I'm not sure they want to tempt fate for a 3rd time in that regard, especially in the Super Bowl.
San Francisco doesn't want to be forced to start chucking the ball all over the yard should they find themselves with an early deficit to climb out of, meaning they'll look to pound the rock early and often and adjust from there. If that's how this game plays out, it's only good news for going 'low' early.
So it's the historical side that I'm siding with for this game, as it's one where taking the 'under' 10 in the 1st quarter and under 27 in the 1st half is where I'll start. If one or both of those cash, I'll look to add an in-game 'over' play to the card, because history also suggests that slow starters in the modern game – Super Bowls from the 1980's on – do tend to loosen up as the game goes on and teams figure out what's working.
And if it's a shootout from the start, well then it's no different then losing two units on any other play this year. Chalk it up as losses and move on. Remember, just because it's the Super Bowl, it doesn't mean that you've got to go all out or expose your bankroll completely. It's just one more game.
But it is a game everyone wants some piece of, and from a total's perspective, I'm sticking with the first 30 minutes of action, at least from a pregame standpoint.
Super Bowl 54 Over-Under Best Bets
1st Quarter Under 10 (+105)
1st Half Under 27 (-120)
by: Josh Inglis
WATKINS CORNER
Lost in all the Patrick Mahomes hoopla is the production of Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins. Through two playoff games, the veteran receiver has 190 yards on nine catches and one touchdown. Watkins has catches of 60, 48 and 28 yards this postseason as the third- or fourth-best option in the K.C. passing game.
Watkins could get loose in San Fran’s Cover 3 if the deep safety is distracted by Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, possibly leaving Watkins in single coverage. With Watkins running about 40 percent of his snaps out of the slot, he has the chance to test and expose different members of San Francisco's secondary.
Watkins’ yardage total sits at 48.5 yards, a number he has gone Over in four of his last six games. Another Watkins bet we love is the Over 20.5 yards for his longest reception. The Chiefs WR is 6-1 O/U on that total across his last seven games.
PASS THE BALL, JIMMY
Over his last four wins dating back to Week 16, San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged 12.75 completions on 19 passes for 185 yards. Jimmy G has thrown the ball more than 34 times just four times this year and is running an offense that has rushed 89 times in its last two win-or-go-home games.
The most frequent runners this year were the Baltimore Ravens who led the league with 37.7 rush attempts per game — the 49ers are averaging 44.5 rushes per game in the playoffs.
With Garoppolo’s passing attempt total at 32.5, we are recommending the Under as the 49ers running game should enjoy the Chiefs’ No. 29 DVOA rush defense, keeping the QB in hand-off mode.
IS IT IN YOU?
One of the more popular prop bets at the Super Bowl is what color will the liquid be that is dumped on the winning coach. The last 10 championship showers have been orange (4), blue (2), none (2), yellow (1) and purple (1) — clear hasn’t won since 2007.
The current odds are as follows:
• Red +150
• Clear/ Water +300
• Lime/Green/Yellow +325
• Orange +400
• Blue +500
• Purple +1800
If you’re looking for an edge: Andy Reid was seen drinking lime-colored sports drink back in Week 15. Red is most likely the lowest odds because both teams share that color. Reid was doused with Yellow Gatorade back in 2013 after beating the Eagles. Last year, the Patriots got coach Bill Belichik with some blue drink and the year before the Eagles got Doug Pederson with a yellow bath.
UNDECIDED
Not sure who to take in Super Bowl 54, take a look at the Team to Score First Wins - No bet for +130. This bet offers great value and does all the work for you in regard to choosing sides. If San Francisco scores first — something it has done in four of its last five games — then you will be cheering for Kansas City.
The Chiefs have hit the "No" in both of their playoff games as the Texans and Titans put up the first points while the 49ers scored first in their two playoff games but had the Team to Score First Wins - No hit in four of their final five regular-season games.
SPECIAL MVP
Vegas expects Super Bowl LIV to be a close game as the Kansas City Chiefs are just 1.5-point favorites. Of the last 12 Super Bowls, eight have been decided by eight points or less which means one big play could lead to the crowning of the game’s MVP. On Feb 2, that big play could come from the Chief’s special teams.
K.C. return man Mecole Hardman has 4.33 wheels and was third in the league in yards per return. He was also one of seven players to take a kickoff to the house (104 yards). The wide receiver also returns punts and has the ability to break a big play and change the game.
We are looking at Hardman to do his best Desmond Howard impression and take home the MVP honors thanks to a big special teams play. Hardman is currently paying +6600 to win the MVP.
RUNNING INTO PROBLEMS
Damien Williams has seen 29 of the Chiefs’ 30 running back carries in the playoffs but has gained just 92 yards against the No. 22 and No. 10 rush defenses. Should we expect the running back to top his rushing total of 53.5 yards against San Francisco’s No. 2 DVOA defense that held Aaron Jones to 12-56-1 and Dalvin Cook to 9-18-0?
Over their last five games, the 49ers have allowed an average of 44.6 yards to opposing teams’ leading rusher. The Niners have a theme of not giving up big gains on the ground as the longest rushing play, they have given up in the last six weeks was a 15-yard run — they have also held two of their last five opponents to a long run of under 10 yards.
We are taking the Under 53.5 rushing yards for Williams.
OH, SAY CAN YOU SEE
The Over/Under for the national anthem sung by Demi Lovato sits at two minutes. Over two minutes is the heavy favorite at -200 and the Under two minutes is paying +150. Heading into the 2019 Super Bowl, the average length of the anthem was one minute 55 seconds (n=28).
Last year, the length was set at one minute 45 seconds and Gladys Knight hit the Over, clocking in at two minutes and one second. However, the Under has hit in nine of the last 13 Super Bowls.
One of the most recent versions of Lovato singing the national anthem — McGregor Vs. Mayweather in 2018 — clocks the singer at two minutes 12 seconds in what looks like a visibly nervous performance. The female singer pays +600 if she omits or forgets a word.
We are trusting the juice and leaning on the Over.
LACES OUT
Although Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker has attempted just one field goal so far in the playoffs, he finished the season hitting nearly 90 percent of his FGs, good for a Top-7 finish. Butker was also a perfect 13-for-13 from 40-49 yards and had long of 56 yards.
His kicking opponent, Robbie Gould, finished 28th in FG% (77.8%) but has made all five of his kicks this postseason including a season-high 54-yarder last week. The San Fran veteran is also a perfect 13-for-13 in his nine career playoff games.
The 49ers could make things more difficult for Mahomes in the red zone while Kansas City’s red zone defense was the 8th-best unit in the league, allowing a TD in 51 percent of its opponents’ RZ possessions.
We like the Over 3.5 field goals at -115 or if you prefer one kick over the other, both kickers' totals sits at 7.5 with the Over paying -130.
101SAN FRANCISCO -102 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season in the current season.
NFL
Dunkel
Championship
Sunday, February 2
San Francisco @ Kansas City
Game 101-102
February 2, 2020 @ 6:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
141.310
Kansas City
146.778
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 1
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-1); Over
NFL
Long Sheet
Championship
Sunday, February 2
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SAN FRANCISCO (15 - 3) vs. KANSAS CITY (14 - 4) - 2/2/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
KANSAS CITY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Championship
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Trend Report
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Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Super Bowl Betting Trends & Angles
Super Bowl LIV between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will be the 54th installment of the big game on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2020 from Miami Gardens, Florida
Before you start handicapping the matchup and prop wagers, you should check 54 betting angles and trends that our staff have uncovered for this year’s Super Bowl.
1 – Patrick Mahomes is the first QB from a Big 12 school to start a Super Bowl. Also, Mahomes is the first QB from a Texas university (Texas Tech) to start a Super Bowl.
2 – Twice in Super Bowl history a team has been held without a touchdown. The Dolphins (Super Bowl VI) and Rams (Super Bowl LIII) each scored exactly three points in losses, but no team has ever been shut out in the Super Bowl.
3 – Three times an AFC West team has been listed as a favorite in the Super Bowl and has lost outright. The Broncos twice (Super Bowl XXII and XLVIII) and Raiders (Super Bowl XXVII). Those teams lost by 35, 27, and 32 in those defeats.
4 – The last four Super Bowls played in an outdoor stadium have seen the underdog cash, including three outright wins. The Broncos (L), Seahawks (XLVIII), and Saints (XLIV) each grabbed the victory in the underdog role in these contests played in a non-domed stadium.
5 – The 49ers have won five Super Bowl titles in franchise history. A victory against the Chiefs would tie the Patriots and Steelers for the most Super Bowl titles (6) in NFL history.
6 – There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976. The 2005 classic (See 39 below) featured the Eagles, who were coached the current boss in KC – Andy Reid.
7 – The 49ers are playing in their seventh Super Bowl in franchise history. San Francisco has won five of its first six Super Bowls, but are listed in the underdog role for the first time.
8 – The Chiefs had eight games with a total of 50 or higher. Kansas City cashed the ‘over’ five times in those contests, with only one coming away from Arrowhead Stadium at Detroit in a 34-30 win in Week 4.
9 – This will be the ninth Super Bowl television broadcast produced by FOX and the sixth for the announcing team of Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. In the first eight Super Bowls on the network, the AFC-NFC and Favorite-Underdog results have split at 4-4 while the ‘over’ is 5-3.
10 – There have been 10 Super Bowls played in Miami and San Francisco has played in two of them – beating Cincinnati 20-16 in 1989 (XXIII) before routing San Diego 49-26 in 1995 (XXIX).
11 – This is the 11th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven of the 10 Super Bowls involving a total of 50 or more, including last season’s 13-3 win by New England over Los Angeles on a 56 total.
12 – Kansas City stunned Minnesota 23-7 in Super Bowl IV, winning outright as a 12-point underdog. Double-digit underdogs have gone 5-9 straight up in the NFL finale but we haven’t seen a spread this high since 2008 when the Giants stunned the Patriots 17-14 in SB XLII.
13 – The 49ers played four games in the Eastern Time Zone this season and the defense traveled well, surrendering 13.5 points per game (PPG) while going 3-1. The lone loss was a 20-17 decision at Baltimore in Week 13. Kansas City went 3-0 when traveling East and it averaged 32.3 PPG.
14 – Amount of touchdown passes Mahomes has thrown against NFC West opponents in his career. Three of those 14 touchdowns came against San Francisco in a 38-27 home victory in 2018.
15 – Only one player has won the Super Bowl MVP wearing the jersey number 15, which was Packers’ quarterback Bart Starr in each of the first two Super Bowl victories. Mahomes is the favorite to capture the award at DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only).
16 – The fewest combined points scored in a Super Bowl was 16, which came last season when the Patriots beat the Rams, 13-3. The previous low was 21 points posted in Super Bowl VII when Miami edged Washington, 14-7.
17 – The Chiefs are making their third Super Bowl appearance. This marks the 17th time in Super Bowl history a team is making its third appearance in the big game. The first 16 teams posted an 8-8 record in their third Super Bowl affair with the Eagles being the most recent team in this situation, beating the Patriots in Super Bowl LII.
18 – Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has gone 18-3 in the regular season following a ‘bye’ week and when playing with rest in the playoffs, he’s produced a 4-2 mark with rest. Kyle Shanahan has gone 2-2 with the 49ers when playing with rest, both wins coming this season.
19 – In Super Bowl history, 19 times the winning team has scored between 30 and 39 points. The only point total that has not been posted by a winning team in the history of this game is 36.
20 – The most combined penalties called in a Super Bowl was 20, which happened twice in 52 games. Dallas and Denver did so in Super Bowl XII and the Patriots and Panthers followed suit in SBXXXVIII.
21 – Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 2-23 SU and 4-20-1 ATS. The two winners that failed to eclipse the 21-point plateau were the N.Y. Giants, who beat the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII, while New England held off Los Angeles in SBLIII, 13-3.
22 – The Chiefs have allowed an average of 22.2 points per game in nine playoff contests coached by Andy Reid, while yielding 20 points or more six times.
23 – Kansas City have scored at least 30 points in 23 games since Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018. The Chiefs are averaging 34 points per game in 16 games played away from Arrowhead Stadium with Mahomes under center.
24 – In Super Bowl 31, the Patriots led the Packers 14-10 after the first quarter and that’s the most combined points (24) scored in the first 15 minutes of the finale.
25 – The 'under' has cashed 25 times in Super Bowl history. Nine of the last 14 Super Bowls have finished 'under' the total, including in the last stadium played without a roof in Santa Clara in Super Bowl 50 between the Broncos and Panthers.
26 – The longest time that elapsed in a Super Bowl before either team scored was 26 minutes, which occurred in SB38 between New England and Carolina. Despite the slow start, the pair combined 24 at the end of the first half and a SB record 37 in the final 15 minutes as the Patriots won 32-29 over the Panthers.
27 – The 49ers averaged 27.5 points per game away from Levi’s Stadium this season. San Francisco topped the 30-point mark three times, including a season-high 48 points in a victory at New Orleans in Week 14.
28 – Since Kyle Shanahan took over as coach of the 49ers, the club has averaged 28.3 PPG against NFC opponents in 12 games. SF has gone 8-4.
29 – In Super Bowl 29 (XXIX), San Francisco blasted San Diego 49-26 which was the highest scoring all-time finale.
30 – Jimmy Garoppolo has attempted 30 passes or more seven times this season, while throwing only 27 passes in the playoffs. Mahomes has attempted 30 or more passes 13 times this season, including twice in the postseason.
31 – Mahomes has played in four playoff games, all at home, and KC has never been held under 31 points.
32 –The Kansas City offense scored 32 points in a 35-32 road loss to the Titans in Week 10 of this year's regular season. Since Mahomes took in 2018 as QB, Kansas City has lost four games on the road despite scoring 32, 31, 51 and 40 points.
33 – In their last four encounters against the NFC West, all coming in the 2018 regular season, the Chiefs allowed 33.3 PPG. To no surprise, the ‘over’ went 3-1 in those games while KC went 2-2.
34 – Shanahan has called plays in five postseason games, two this year with the 49ers and three during his previous tenure as an offensive coordinator with the Atlanta Falcons. He owns a 4-1 mark and those teams averaged 34 PPG.
35 – Favorites have gone 35-17 straight up in the Super Bowl, while producing a 28-20-2 ATS mark. One game closed at a pick ‘em, which is in the same neighborhood of the SB 54 number.
36 – In the six all-time Super Bowl playoff appearances by San Francisco, the club averaged 36.5 PPG.
37 – The most combined points scored in the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl is 37, which came between the Panthers (19) and Patriots (18) in SBXXVIII.
38 – Kansas City played in five primetime games this season and the combined points scored in those game was 38.6. The Chiefs went 3-2 while the ‘under’ produced a 4-1 mark. The 49ers went 6-1 in games played at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. The ‘over’ went 4-2-1.
39 – In Super Bowl 39 (XXXIX), New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 but failed to cover as a seven-point favorite. This was one of two games where the underdog, in this case the Eagles, scored late to affect the point-spread. The other backdoor cover came in SBXIII when Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31. The Cowboys trailed 35-17 and scored 14 points in the final three minutes.
40 – The most field goals made from 40 yards or more in a Super Bowl is three by Saints' kicker Garrett Hartley in their win over the Colts in SBXLIV.
41a – The last time we saw back-to-back ‘under’ tickets in the NFL came in Super Bowl 41 when the Colts defeated the Bears 29-17. Coincidentally, that game was also the last Super Bowl played in Miami.
41b – The 49ers scored more than 41 points three times this season, compared to only one occurrence by the Chiefs.
42 – The amount of points allowed by the 49ers in two Super Bowls at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. San Francisco yielded 16 points to Cincinnati in Super Bowl XXIII and 26 points to San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX.
43 – The most completions in a Super Bowl was 43, which is held by QB Tom Brady in Super Bowl 51 between New England and Atlanta. What’s more impressive is that Brady completed 22 passes in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Falcons.
44 – Washington Redskins running back John Riggins wore number 44 and he’s the only Super Bowl MVP that had a jersey listed in the forties. The most common range for SB MVP jersey numbers falls between 10 and 19.
45 – The largest margin of victory in a Super Bowl is 45, which came in SBXXIV when the 49ers blasted the Broncos, 55-10.
46 – The most points allowed by the 49ers this season, which came in a 48-46 victory at New Orleans in Week 14. In six of San Francisco’s other seven road games this season, the Niners yielded 21 points or less.
47 – The longest reception made by Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce this season went for 47 yards, which came against the Raiders in Week 13. The last time a tight end picked up a catch of at least 40 yards in the Super Bowl was Kevin Boss of the Giants, who hauled in a 45-yard reception in Super Bowl XLII against the Patriots.
48 – There has only been one Super Bowl where the combined score has landed exactly on 48 points. This occurred in SBXLIV when the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17 in 2010.
49 – San Francisco captured a 49-26 victory over San Diego in Super Bowl 29, which was the only time a team scored exactly seven touchdowns and extra points in a game. The 75 combined points was also the most ever scored in a Super Bowl.
50 – The highest amount of passing attempts in a game this season by Mahomes was 50, which came in a 35-32 loss at Tennessee in Week 10. In that game, Mahomes threw for a season-high 446 yards.
51 – The Chiefs scored a season-high 51 points in their 51-31 win over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Playoff round.
52 – Mahomes has thrown five passes of 52 yards or more this season, compared to seven such throws in 2018. Jimmy Garoppolo has connected on three passes of 52 yards or more in 2019.
53 – 49ers' wide receiver Deebo Samuel averaged 53.5 yards per game during the regular season. That is the lowest amount of yards averaged per game by a team's leading wide receiver to play in the Super Bowl since 2017 when Philadelphia's Alshon Jeffery posted 49.3 yards per contest.
54 – This is the first Super Bowl with a total of 54 points. In the four other Super Bowls with a total of 54 points or higher, the ‘under’ connected three times.
Hot & Not Report - SB54
Matt Blunt
It's been a few weeks since I produced one of these pieces, and with all the historical digging that's been done leading up to Super Bowl 54, I thought it would be best to put out one more of these for the NFL season. Doing all that backtracking has been fun, but at this point I'm about ready to see the football in the air and this game kicked off. You can view my analysis on four early pieces below:
One more look at a couple historical angles is what will be presented here, and given that it's already known that Kansas City is my selection for this year's game, this piece may feel a bit like some confirmation bias to some. I get that you can find stats for pretty much everything these days and that's just how it is. Using or dismissing the following information is your decision, but there are two more historical ideas that I've found to favor the Chiefs this week that aren't being regurgitated like the “team that wears white wins” I seemingly have seen at every corner during this research.
Some may view what I'm about to present as just as useless/coincidental as the jersey color and that's fine, but why leave some stones unturned?
Who's Hot
Since the NFL went to a six-team per conference playoff in the 1990 season, 22 of the 29 Super Bowl winners made the playoffs the year before
Experience is one of those words that gets chucked around a lot in this industry, and whenever it's used the notion of how to quantify a player or team's level of experience comes up. Without question, quantifying experience levels can be an exercise in absurdity, but this may be one of those scenarios where you can bring some measure of value to it. It's something that could be just as valuable at the beginning of the year in futures markets, but when just looking at the two teams involved in the Super Bowl, history has shown that recent playoff experience for teams has proven to be beneficial. Considering the Chiefs made the postseason a year ago, and San Francisco didn't, it does make this situation relevant this year.
In those 29 Super Bowls – starting with the New York Giants win over the Buffalo Buffalo in Super Bowl 25 – there were three years where both Super Bowl teams failed to make the playoffs the year prior (SB 34, 35, and 38), so we've got to omit those as well.
Now most of those years involved two teams that did make the playoffs the year prior, so the 22 for 29 run isn't as bad as it may seem for the 49ers this year, but it's still not a profitable situation for them. In that 29-year span, when we've had this identical scenario – one team off a playoff season (KC) and one team not (SF) – the team with playoff experience from the previous year is 6-4 straight up (SU).
However, since the NFL merger in 1970 – starting with the SB 6 matchup as SB 5 was Year 1 for the NFL as we know it now – teams with that profile are 13-6 SU all-time in the Super Bowl. That does tilt the scale a bit further towards the Chiefs this week, especially when you consider the New England Patriots aren't involved. Of the four Super Bowl wins in the past 29 for those teams lacking playoff experience from the year before, three of them involved the Patriots.
The most recent being when the Philadelphia Eagles knocked off New England, but the 2011 New York Giants fit that bill as well. New England was also on the right side of that coin back in 2001 when Tom Brady and New England won their first Super Bowl to start their dynasty, upsetting the Rams in one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history. The other game to fit the bill was when New Orleans knocked off Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts team back in the 2009 season, oddly enough the last time the Super Bowl was played in Miami.
But while San Francisco backers may take that Miami connection as a positive here, even that can be up for dispute. In the six other Super Bowls played in Miami (from SB 10 on), this occurrence has actually happened four other times (SB 10, 23, 29, and 33) and all four of those times, the team that had the recent playoff experience won the game outright. In all four of those wins, the winning team did enter the game as the favorite, but did post a 2-2 ATS record thanks to having some lofty spreads attached.
Again, the dispute there lies in that the 49ers organization was actually a part of two of those victories (SB 23 and 29), but with this year's spread in the range where you've just got to pick the outright winner, the straight up results seem a bit more important.
Granted, the argument that Super Bowls that were played 20+ years ago have nothing to do with this year's game is valid and will be where some choose to hang their hat, but if we can't learn from the past, what else do we have?
Who's Not
Since the start of the 2000 NFL season, Super Bowl teams that enter with the QB who had more regular season passing TD's are 6-13 SU, including 0-4 SU and ATS the past four years
Poking holes in this trend is possible as well as there have been multiple cases where one Super Bowl QB didn't play the same number of games during the year as the other one, but in terms of final tally numbers, that 6-13 SU number holds up. This year's game does feature the two QB's playing a different number of games thanks to Patrick Mahomes injury earlier in the year, but the final regular season tally went like this: Jimmy Garoppolo 27 TD passes, Patrick Mahomes 26 TD passes.
What may be most interesting about this angle is that with all those Super Bowls made by the New England Patriots and Tom Brady, we do have a measuring point specifically for him in proving the validity of this angle. Brady is 6-3 SU in his nine Super Bowl appearances, but all three of those defeats came when he finished the year with more TD passes then his foe, and four of his six wins came when he had fewer TD passes then his foe.
Brady's not involved in this year's game, but considering that big of a sample size for one man, it is hard to completely negate this angle. And the two wins he did get when having more TD passes were against Carolina on a last-second FG, and against Seattle when the Seahawks decided not to run the ball from the one-yard line. Had a bounce or two gone differently, maybe this trend would be perfect for Brady and his nine Super Bowl appearances.
The lack of passing from Jimmy G in these playoffs has been a popular talking point for this game, but this angle kind of flips that upside down. Now, had Mahomes played a full season he would have almost certainly had more passing TD's, but the chips fall as they will, and oddly enough it's working out in KC's favor here.
Whether or not that's how it plays out on Sunday remains to be seen, but I can also leave you with this angle that was last on the chopping block for this piece:
The Super Bowl team with the larger margin of victory in the conference championship game is just 7-11-2 SU in the last 20 Super Bowls (twice both participants had identical margin of victories).
Only three of those wins have come by the underdog, so sorry San Francisco fans, the writing may already be on the wall.
Six bullshit Super Bowl betting trends you should never base your bets on
Teams wearing white uniforms have won 13 of the previous 15 Super Bowls – and that has made some 49ers fans excited, as San Fran will wear its "lucky" whites this weekend.
Every year, the Big Game attracts billions of betting bucks – and not all of those dollars are wagered sensibly. There have been plenty of trends mentioned ahead of Sunday's NFL championship game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, and we're here to present six that you can not only safely ignore, but openly and gleefully mock those who don't. Here, without further ado, are the WORST Super Bowl trends making the rounds in 2020:
WHITE UNIS, BABY!
If you haven't heard this little nugget yet, you're lucky. And if you have, we can only hope you didn't give it a second thought. Teams wearing white uniforms have won 13 of the previous 15 Super Bowls – and that has made some 49ers fans excited, as San Fran will wear its "lucky" whites this weekend. It doesn't help matters that the Niners are 2-0 when wearing white at the Super Bowl, prevailing in Super Bowl XIV vs. the Bengals and again in Super Bowl XXIV vs. Denver. There's absolutely no rhyme or reason for this trend, but that won't stop some people from putting money on it – and saying "Told ya!" if the 49ers do go on to win.
HEADS WILL ROLL
Ah, the coin flip. Countless millions of dollars are spent on this activity every Super Bowl, with the odds the same as they ever were: -105 for heads, and -105 for tails. There is literally no coin flip-related trend worth pursuing – and yet, you'll see people make their coin-flip wager on the basis of Heads having rode a bit of a hot streak, coming through in nine of the previous 14 Super Bowls. But whether you're a "ride the streak!" bettor, or a "tails are due" wagerer, the simple fact remains (and it's backed by basic finite math): the result of the Super Bowl coin flip is exactly that – a coin flip. Don't overthink this one.
DOME SWEET DOME
Some people just prefer not having to go outside. Like cat ladies. Or professional gamers. And it certainly appears as if you can add the NFC's Super Bowl representatives to that list; the conference has been positively dominant in a dome setting, having won 15 of the past 19 NFL championships played indoors. And here's the best part of all: IT MEANS NOTHING. San Francisco has won just one of its previous five games played in a dome while giving up an average of 34 points per game in that span. And the Chiefs? They're 4-1 SU in a dome setting since 2010. But DON'T BET ON THAT, EITHER!
FAB IN FEBRUARY
On the flip side, what is it about NFC teams refusing to stay competitive once the calendar flips to Feb. 1? Or perhaps this has more to do with the fact that Tom Brady truly is an untiring cyborg, sent to Earth to provide mirth and enjoyment while teaching all of us how to play better football. Whatever the case, the AFC has been a far superior play in Super Bowls played in the month of February, having gone 11-6 SU. That includes Baltimore's 21-19 win over San Fran at Super Bowl XLVII at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. These teams have played one combined February game in their history. Can you say, "sample size fail"?
START FAST, FADE LATE
Both Kansas City and San Francisco got off to hot starts in 2019 – but the Chiefs' loss in their fifth game in the season might just make them a better bet to win this weekend, if you believe in dumb trends. Over the past decade-plus, only two teams that kicked off the season 5-0 (the 2009 New Orleans Saints and the 2015 Denver Broncos) went on to win the Super Bowl. So, as you can see, that 5-0 start by the Niners is a sure sign that they're in trouble Sunday. On the flip side, the last three teams to win the title in Miami all started 5-0 – so you're probably VERY confused by now. Here's a tip: Ignore it all.
TAKE IT TO THE HOUSE
Speaking of NFL championship games played at Hard Rock Stadium, the overwhelming majority of them have featured at least one memorable play (okay, several, but we have a soft spot for this type in particular). Of the 10 kickoff returns for a touchdown in Super Bowl history, four of them have taken place in the five games played at the site of Sunday's showdown – and the 49ers were actually on the wrong end of two of those, at Super Bowl XXIII vs. Cincinnati and Super Bowl XXIX against San Diego. Sounds like a sure thing, then, right? WRONG. It's a cute stat, but not something you should bet on.
Advantage - Kansas City Chiefs
Kevin Rogers
The Chiefs hosted the AFC championship game in 2018, but lost a shootout in overtime to the eventual champion Patriots. However, Kansas City rebounded this season with another trip to the conference title game and knocked off Tennessee for its first Super Bowl appearance since 1969.
In spite of last season’s Most Valuable Player Patrick Mahomes missing nearly three games due to a dislocated kneecap, the Chiefs still posted 451 points. Kansas City made the Super Bowl even though it scored 114 points less than last season and finished with the exact same 14-2 record in the regular season.
Mahomes threw almost half the touchdown passes from 2018 (50) to this season (26), but also cut down on his interceptions from 12 to 5. The former Texas Tech standout still managed 4,031 yards passing in 13 ½ games, which was only an average of eight yards passing fewer per game than 2018. The Chiefs won seven of eight games away from Arrowhead Stadium with the only loss coming to the Titans in Week 10 on a last-minute touchdown, which was coincidentally the best passing game by Mahomes this season (446 yards).
The Chiefs did an excellent job of not giving away the ball this season by committing only 15 turnovers, which was ranked tied for third-fewest in the league. As mentioned earlier, the five interceptions thrown by Mahomes (zero by Matt Moore in the two games he started) were the second-fewest in the NFL behind Green Bay. Kansas City owned a +8 turnover ratio on the season, compared to San Francisco’s +4 turnover margin as the 49ers threw 13 interceptions, which is the second-most among playoff teams.
Mahomes has never thrown an interception in four career playoff games, compared to 11 touchdown passes. His best passing performance came in the divisional round against the Texans in which he threw for 321 yards and five touchdowns, marking the most touchdowns he posted this season.
VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson provides his thoughts on why the Chiefs are worth backing, “Kansas City was sixth in the NFL in opposing quarterback passer rating, ahead of San Francisco. The Chiefs were also eighth in the NFL in red zone touchdown success allowed, while San Francisco was 25th. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 yards per rush this season, but San Francisco wasn’t that much better surrendering 4.4 yards per attempt. While the bulk of the compiling numbers favor San Francisco, there are key numbers that paint these defenses much closer together than the general team statistics over the course of the season. The defensive numbers for San Francisco also got worse in the second half of the season while they improved dramatically for the Chiefs down the stretch.”
The two rallies pulled off by Kansas City just proves its relentless scoring prowess according to Nelson, “The Chiefs have come back from 24-0 and 17-7 in two playoff wins the past two games as this team can handle adversity and won’t panic if there is a big turnover or an early setback. It isn’t clear the 49ers can do that going just 5-3 in single-score games this season. The 49ers lucked into the #1 seed in the NFC with Seattle falling an inch short of the goal line in Week 17. In the NFC Championship, they faced a Packers team that could make a case for being one of the weakest #2 seeds in NFL history as well. Both quality road wins for the 49ers came narrowly with great fortune while the Chiefs dominated its final two road games of the season against quality defenses and will be easier to trust in a neutral site far from home.”
The second half defense has been especially strong for Kansas City down the stretch by allowing double-digit points after halftime only once in the past eight contests. The Chiefs yielded seven points in the second half of each of their playoff wins against the Titans and Texans, while the most points allowed after halftime in this stretch was 14 in the Week 17 home win over the Chargers.
The Chiefs did a better job of limiting top statistical quarterbacks than the 49ers this season. Kansas City has played five games against quarterbacks that finished in the top 10 in passing (Philip Rivers twice, Derek Carr twice, and Tom Brady), while San Francisco played six contests against four such quarterbacks (Jared Goff twice, Russell Wilson twice, Jameis Winston, and Matt Ryan). In spite of the 49ers playing one extra game, they racked up only five interceptions, with three coming in the opener at Tampa Bay. The Chiefs compiled 11 interceptions in those five games, compared to six touchdown passes.
Out of starting quarterbacks that played at least 14 games, Mahomes was sacked the least by getting taken down only 17 times, compared to Jimmy Garoppolo getting sacked 36 times in 16 starts.
Advantage - San Francisco 49ers
Kevin Rogers
The 49ers were not a team strongly considered to be the top seed in the NFC playoffs, much less capture its first conference title since 2012. But San Francisco put together a terrific campaign that started with an 8-0 record and a 13-3 finish that included late-season victories over the Saints, Rams, and Seahawks to secure the number one seed and home-field advantage.
Since Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over as starting quarterback of the 49ers late in the 2017 season, San Francisco owns a spectacular 21-5 record. Garoppolo won the final starts of 2017 after getting traded from New England, then went 1-1 to begin 2018 before tearing his ACL in a Week 3 defeat at San Francisco. The season went sideways for the Niners, who finished 4-12, but after Garoppolo rehabbed from the knee injury, San Francisco lost a total of three games in 2019, including two by three points each.
The defense led the way for San Francisco to begin the season, which included limiting six of their first seven opponents to 17 points or less. The 49ers posted 31 points or more four times during this early stretch, including dropping 51 points on Carolina in a Week 8 home blowout. Garoppolo threw for over 300 yards only three times this season, but all three came in victories, including in the wild 48-46 triumph at New Orleans in Week 14.
Although the defensive numbers weren’t as strong down the stretch for San Francisco (31.7 points per game allowed in the last four regular season games), the 49ers shut down the Vikings and Packers in two resounding home playoff victories. San Francisco limited those two NFC North squads to a total of 30 points, while winning each time by 17 points. The Niners allowed a total of 83 yards on the ground in the two victories, after giving up an average of 112.8 yards per game rushing (which was still 16 yards better than the Chiefs).
Since 2013, three NFC teams listed as underdogs in the Super Bowl that won both playoff games at home are 2-1. The Seahawks dominated the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, 43-8 and the Eagles outlasted the Patriots, 41-33 in Super Bowl LII. The only loser in this situation was the Falcons in Super Bowl LI, who famously squandered a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in a 34-28 overtime setback as three-point ‘dogs.
NFL handicapper Joe Nelson elaborates on the dominance of the San Francisco defense through the playoffs, “Aaron Rodgers had a 22.3 QBR in the NFC Championship despite being one of the all-time greats in that metric. Kirk Cousins was one of the top-rated quarterbacks in the NFL and he didn’t fare much better vs. the 49ers with the Vikings managing seven first downs. The Chiefs have needed Patrick Mahomes to be brilliant in two playoff wins after digging early holes, he isn’t likely to have great numbers against a 49ers’ defense that held opposing quarterbacks to the seventh-worst rating in the league in the regular season.”
For as much as the Chiefs are thought of as an offensive juggernaut, the 49ers’ offense actually outperformed Kansas City this season, “Kansas City wowed with 86 points in two impressive comeback wins in the playoffs, but even with that scoring the Chiefs have been outscored by the 49ers 543-537 through 18 games. The only major team statistic that the Chiefs beat the 49ers is turnover differential at +8 compared to just +7 counting the playoff games for an inconsequential difference,” Nelson notes.
The 49ers led the NFL in passing yards allowed per game in the NFL at 169.2, while yielding 300 or more yards to a quarterback three times this season. In San Francisco’s three losses, the Niners never gave up more than 240 yards passing as they led or were tied with less than two minutes to go in each defeat.
Total Talk - Super Bowl 54
Chris David
Over/Under Trends and Angles
Prior to last year’s 13-3 snooze-fest in Super Bowl 53 between the Patriots and Rams, the NFL finale had watched the ‘over’ cash in five of the previous six games.
For this year’s Super Bowl 54 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, the oddsmakers are expecting fireworks and the betting public is buying that narrative.
After the matchup was set on Sunday Jan. 19, oddsmakers sent out an opener of 51 ½ and that total has been pushed up to 54 ½ as of Friday before the Super Bowl. The betting trends are leaning heavily to the ‘over’ and if that connects, the profits for the bookmakers will be cut drastically regardless of the 49ers or Chiefs winnings.
While many bettors love cheering points, the total results for the Super Bowl have had nice back-and-forth results. Through the first 53 Super Bowls with listed totals, the ‘over’ owns a slight 27-25 edge.
For my last and final “Total Talk” piece of the season, I’ve dug up plenty of nuggets that could help your Super Bowl total wagers for either the ‘over’ or ‘under’ come Sunday.
Advantage – Over
-- Kansas City averaged 29.6 points per game on the road, ranked third in the league while San Francisco owns the fifth best offense, averaging 27.5 PPG away from home.
-- Make a note that the Chiefs haven’t played outside of Arrowhead since Dec. 22 when they stifled the Bears 26-3 on the road.
-- San Francisco’s last road trip was a bit more recent and the opponent was much tougher as the 49ers outlasted the Seahawks 26-21 on Dec. 29 from CenturyLink Field.
-- The Chiefs went 5-3 versus playoff teams this season and the ‘over’ went 7-1 in those games, which includes a 2-0 record in the AFC Divisional Playoff and Championship rounds. Delving deeper into those games, Kansas City has allowed 27.7 PPG.
-- Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has appeared in four playoff games and the Chiefs have averaged 37 PPG albeit every contest was played at Arrowhead Stadium.
-- The total on those games were all listed in the fifties and the ‘over’ produced a 3-1 mark.
-- The two teams met in the 2018 regular season and the Chiefs defeated the 49ers 38-27 as six-point home favorites and the ‘over’ (53 ½) connected easily. Mahomes helped KC build a 35-10 lead at halftime and he finished the day with 314 passing yards and three touchdowns. In that game, Jimmy Garoppolo tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.
-- Including the aforementioned outcome, KC has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in its last eight games against NFC opponents and it’s never been held under 26 points.
-- Another angle focusing on Mahomes goes with games off rest. Since he took over as the signal caller in 2018, the Chiefs have scored 40, 31, 40 and 51 points in their last four games off rest.
-- While San Francisco wasn’t as explosive with rest, it’s been formidable this season. The club went 2-0 when playing with rest in 2019, averaging 29 PPG. The Niners defeated Cleveland 31-3 in Week 5 before humbling Minnesota 27-10 in the Divisional Playoffs round.
-- San Francisco has played in six Super Bowls all-time and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in those games. The 49ers have averaged 36.5 PPG in those finales and have never been held below 20 points.
-- One of those NFL championships occurred in Miami and the 49ers blasted the Chargers 49-26 in SBXXIX, which is still the highest-scoring Super Bowl of all-time.
-- San Francisco has played in two Super Bowls with totals listed in the fifties and the ‘over’ has cashed in both of those games.
Advantage – Under
-- San Francisco allowed 18.9 PPG on the road this season, ranked fifth in the league. Meanwhile, Kansas City isn’t known to be a defensive power but it only surrendered 20.2 PPG and the unit was actually better on the road (17.9 PPG) than at home (22 PPG).
-- The Niners watched the ‘under’ go 4-3-1 on the road while Kansas City watched the low side go 5-3 on the road.
-- Kansas City closed the season on a 4-1 ‘under’ record away from home and four of those teams were held to 17 points or less.
-- San Francisco has only had two totals close in the fifties this season and the ‘under’ cashed in both games. Each of those contests took place on the road and San Francisco captured 31-17 and 20-7 wins over the Buccaneers and Rams respectively.
-- Versus AFC opponents, San Francisco is on a 5-1 run to the ‘under’ and that includes a 3-1 mark to the low side this season. The defense only allowed 15 PPG this season versus AFC.
-- Travel is always a factor for the Niners, since they are one of five teams that play on the West Coast. When playing in the Eastern Standard Time Zone this season, San Francisco went 3-1 this season the average combined score of those games was 38. The defense held all four opponents to 20 points or less.
-- When playing with rest under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers have seen the ‘under’ cash in all four games. They’ve gone 2-2 in those games (both wins this season) but the defense surrendered a combined 13 points.
-- This nugget from VI handicapper Alex Smart is a good one and it focuses on Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and his success with rest. Per Smart “Reid is 20-5 to the ‘under’ when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with the combined average score of those games clicking in at 39 PPG.
-- The Super Bowl has had 11 totals close in the fifties and the ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in those games. Diving deeper into those matchups, the low side has gone 5-2 in the last seven Super Bowls with a total higher than 50 points.
-- In the five Super Bowl wins for the 49ers, the defense has only allowed 17.8 PPG.
-- Kansas City averaged 16.5 PPG in its only two Super Bowl appearances.
Super Bowl 54 Best Bet
Total (Over/Under) Predictions
I was happy to produce a solid regular season mark (29-22, 57%) with my totals but my reckless 6-9 mark in the postseason certainly hurt the overall results. We’re still in the black (barely) on the season and while I don’t go nuts on Super Bowl wagers since it is just one game, I’m confident in these selections. You can hear more of my handicapping approach and analysis on the Bet and Collect Podcast with Kevin Rogers. Thanks for your feedback and support all season!
As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
I believe we’re going to see plenty of scores in this game but I’m not sure how many points will be posted. Kansas City has proven that it can move the chains on anybody but this will be its toughest defensive test. San Francisco’s offense might not appear as explosive yet it had more big plays (106) than the Chiefs (75) this season. A big play is a pass completion of 25-plus yards and a running play of 10-plus yards.
Defensively, the 49ers have a huge edge and I believe the Chiefs will be exposed in this spot. In my opinion, I believe Kansas City has faced three solid quarterbacks on the road this season that have quality offensive talent surrounding them. Those teams were the Lions, Titans and Chargers. Yes, I’m leaving out the Patriots and Tom Brady because New England’s offense was a mess. In those games against Detroit, Tennessee and Los Angeles, the Chiefs allowed an average of 27.3 PPG and 418 defensive yards.
With all that being said, I believe Jimmy G and the San Francisco offense is more potent than those teams and that has me playing the San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 26 ½.
Another wager that caught my eye was the 1st Quarter Over 10 Points. The 49ers averaged 6.7 PPG in the first 15 minutes of their games this season and that number went up on the road to 6.9 PPG. Per Matt Blunt’s Super Bowl Total Analysis piece, the 49ers and Chiefs both saw 10 or more points scored in 12 of their 18 games. If you aren’t a math wizard, that’s a 67 percent clip to get double-digits and I’ll place the buy order here.
San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 26 ½
1st Quarter Over 10 Points