Saturday 12/14/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NBA games.
Steve Janus
Dec 14 '19, 1:05 PM in 3h
NHL | Sabres vs Islanders
Play on: Sabres +160 at Buckeye
1* Free Sharp Play on Sabres +160
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Jimmy Boyd
Dec 14 '19, 3:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | Memphis vs Tennessee
Play on: Tennessee -6½ -110 at YouWager
1* Free Pick on Tennessee -6½ -110
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Pro Computer Gambler
Dec 14 '19, 3:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Army vs Navy
Play on: Navy -10½ -105 at Pinnacle
NCAAF SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:#018 - A team that just lost as a dog but got at least 22 first downs chokes are 161-275-8 ATS (36.9%) vs. a team off of a win in which they score 17+ points. -- Fade Army
NAVY is 8-1 ATS (12.67 ppg) since Nov 17, 2018 as a favorite.
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Red Dog Sports
Dec 14 '19, 3:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Army vs Navy
Play on: UNDER 40 -109
under 40
These two teams are familiar with each others offense and are prepared to stop them. The last two meetings have only seen 27 points scored in each. There have been 14 unders and 2 overs in the last 16 meetings. The total opened at 45 but has dropped down to around 40 and we are giving it out as a free play.
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Totals Guru
Dec 14 '19, 7:05 PM in 9h
NHL | Kings vs Penguins
Play on: UNDER 6 -110
Free Total Annihilator On Kings vs Penguins under 6 -110
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Hunter Price
Dec 14 '19, 7:05 PM in 9h
NHL | Bruins vs Panthers
Play on: Panthers +105 at GTBets
1* Free Pick on Panthers +105
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Kenny Walker
Dec 14 '19, 8:05 PM in 10h
NBA | Clippers vs Bulls
Play on: Clippers -5 -110 at YouWager
Free Pick on Clippers
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Bobby Conn
Dec 14 '19, 8:35 PM in 11h
NBA | Heat vs Mavs
Play on: UNDER 217 -110
1* Free Play on Heat/Mavs under217 -110
The Mavericks (17-7) are edging Houston in the Southwest, and the Heat (18-7) are tops the Southeast. Tonight, we’ll see these two division leaders face off in Dallas. The over/under is set at 217 points.
After a four-game home stand, Miami will be on the road for the first time since they managed only 93 points in Boston. The Heat have been good defensively, holding opponents to 105 points or fewer in two of their last four. Watch for some heavy legs from Miami after taking a three-point loss against the Lakers yesterday.
On average, the Heat are scoring 111.9 points while allowing 106.4 points per game.
Miami has been missing the play of Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow. Dragic has contributed 15.9 points per game while Winslow has added 12.4 points a game. Both players remain out.
Often overlooked in a Dallas team that features an MVP candidate is just how good they’ve been on the defensive end. The Mavericks haven’t allowed more than 114 points in their last eight games, and they allowed 100 points or fewer in three of them.
On average, the Mavericks are scoring 118.1 points while allowing 108.4 points per game.
Luke Doncic is putting up a monster year with 30.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game, but no other Dallas player is scoring more than 16.6 points a game.
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Rob Vinciletti
Dec 14 '19, 8:35 PM in 11h
NBA | Heat vs Mavs
Play on: OVER 215½ -107
The NBA Comp Play is on the Over in the Miami at Dallas game at 8:30 eastern. This game fits a solid long term system cashing 91% since 1995. Play the Over for rested home favorite with a 200 or higher total if they scored 120 or more as and covered as a road favorite of 5 or more and allowed 110 or more if the opponent which is Miami in this case was a home dog last out. The Heat will go up tempo with Dallas in this game and the Mavs have flown over in 16 of 23 overall including 7 of 9 as a favorite and 12 of 16 with 1 day of rest. The Heat are 5 of 7 over vs inning teams and played hard last night in a loss to the Lakers. Play this one Over the total. . For the NBA Free play. Go with the Over in the Miami at Dallas game. RV- GC Sports
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Brian Bitler
Brian’s 10* CBB Absolute Cover
Oregon vs. Michigan, 12/14/2019 12:00 EDT
Point Spread: +3½/-109 Oregon
Sportsbook:
PinnacleSports
Michigan has cooled off since their meteoric rise early in the college basketball season when they looked great out of confer but this Oregon team is one that can hang with any team in the land having lost to North Carolina and Gonzaga this Ducks team needs a quality road win and they would have that if they can take out Michigan. Michigan’s losses to Illinois and Louisville gave the Ducks the blueprint. Look for this game to be tied and the team with the ball last will take this game I will take any points.
Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Ducks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Invest 10 units on Oregon rotation #685
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Tony Brown
Tony's *10 Star NCAA free play
Army vs. Navy, 12/14/2019 15:00 EDT
Total: -115/+41 Under
Sportsbook:
Bodog
Fp: Meeting number 120 between these two programs army navy one of the biggest rivalries in all sports definitely college football . Between army’s triple option and navy’s solid run game I expect the block to run and run before we see 41 points making the under my NCAA free play !
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Chip Chirimbes
Chip's FREE NCAA Winner
Memphis vs. Tennessee, 12/14/2019 15:00 EDT
Point Spread: +7/-110 Memphis
Sportsbook:
TopBet
Chip's FREE NCAA Winner
Memphis at Tennessee 3:00 ET
Tigers (+) over Volunteers- A pair of ranked teams from Tennessee will go at it as both are tied at No. 17 in the coaches poll. Memphis enters 8-1 and have won six in a row losing only to ranked Oregon while Tennessee (7-1) losing to ranked Florida State. These two come to play when facing each other as the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and that plays right into the trend that the Vols being just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Take MEMPHIS!
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Stephen DeAngelo
For Saturday’s freebie, we’ll head to Philadelphia and laying the chalk with Navy in the annual Army-Navy classic.
First off, this is a triple-revenge spot for the Midshipmen, who have lost three straight close games to Army (21-17, 14-13 and 17-10) after dominating this rivalry for more than a decade, winning 14 consecutive meetings from 2002-15.
It doesn’t take a telescope to see who the better squad is this year: Navy rolls in with a 9-2 record (8-3 ATS), the lone losses coming against 14th-ranked Notre Dame and 15th-ranked Memphis, and the 21st-ranked Middies are headed to the Liberty Bowl to face Kansas State. On the other hand, Army is 5-7 SU and ATS, and that sub-.500 record means the Black Knights will end their season today after going bowling each of the past three seasons.
And while Navy has several marquee victories on its ledger this season (Air Force, SMU, Houston), you have to look long and hard to find a signature win for the Black Knights: They beat Rice, Texas-San Antonio and Morgan State on their way to a 3-1 start to the season, then posted consecutive wins last month over god-awful UMass and Virginia Military Institute (VMI). In fact, Army’s best performance of the season had to be its 24-21 overtime loss at Michigan back on Sept. 7.
Besides the teams’ records, all the important stats also favor Navy in a big way. The Middies’ triple-option attack is averaging 361 rushing ypg (6 yards per rush); Army’s ground attack averages 311.7 rushing ypg (5.4 per carry). Defensively, Navy yields a scant 110 rushing ypg (3.4 per carry), while the Black Knights surrender 144 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry).
Yes, this is a big number to lay in what is arguably the most spirited rivalry in college football (if not all of sports). But keep in mind that Navy has scored 34 points or more in nine games (each of its victories), and six of its victories were by double digits (plus a 9-point win over Air Force). Conversely, Army is coming off a 52-31 loss at Hawaii two weeks ago, and if you eliminate explosive offensive performances in their four wins against horrendous competition—47 vs. VMI, 63 vs. UMass, 52 vs. Morgan State, 31 at UTSA—the Black Knights averaged just 21.3 ppg.
Also, during their 14-game winning streak over Army, the Middies posted 10 double-digit routs, with those blowouts occurring in seasons in which Navy was the vastly superior squad—just like they are once again today.
5* NAVY
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Bob Valentino
Death, taxes and the Army-Navy game Under the total. Those are your three certainties in life!
My free play winner for this Saturday card is the annual Army-Navy game from a wet and rainy Lincoln Financial Field to hold Under the posted total.
Last season the Black Knights of Army scored on their opening possession and it looked for a little glimmer of time that we may actually see some points scored in this military matchup, but alas the game ended up with a total of 27 points in a 17-10 Army win that pushed the Under streak in this rivalry to an amazing 13 in a row LOW!
That's right, 13 straight series meetings have held Under the total, as the most points these rivals have combined for over the last 7 meetings is a grand total of 38 points.
With rain expected to be falling throughout this contest, and with both teams primarily known for their land-locked attacks that both know how to defense oh-so-well, unless this game features a rash of turnovers that lead to points, I do not feel we are going Over the total.
True, Navy has been primarily an Over team this year - 7 of 11 so far over the total - while Army stands at 5-5-1 in the Over/Under department for the season, but like I said these rivals know each other too well for me to think there are any surprises that will be pulled today.
Make it 14 in a row Under in the Army-Navy series today.
5* ARMY-NAVY UNDER
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Bob Valentino
Comp play in college hoops today goes on St. Louis plus the very generous points as they play against Auburn in Birmingham this afternoon.
Since getting pasted by Seton Hall on their home floor on November 15th, Travis Ford's Billikens have gone on a 5 game winning streak to improve to 8-1 as the take the court today against the 8-0 Auburn Tigers.
At #10 in the land, Auburn has a bulls-eye on their jerseys as opponents know full well that Bruce Pearl led his team to the Final Four last season, but all 5 starters from last season's team are departed, and this Tigers team dipped deep into the well their last time out as they came from 14 points down to keep their mark unblemished in a 3-point OT win over Furman.
This is too many points today to give to St. Louis, as this is a Billikens team that boasts an 11-2 spread mark their last 13 games when facing teams with a winning record.
Guard Jordan Goodwin and forward Hasahn French are averaging double-doubles for St. Louis, while freshman guard Gibson Jimerson has been quite productive in his first season with an 11.3 points per game average.
Coach Pearl has done a great job early this season after all of the losses his history making team suffered and there is still enough talent on this year's team to keep their record unblemished, but after digging deep in their last game it sure appears this is too many points to ask them to cover against a very dangerous underdog today.
Mark me down for a play on St. Louis plus the points.
3* ST. LOUIS
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Chris Jordan
Rolling with Arizona State tonight as my free play, as I think we're looking at an awfully cheap number with the Sun Devils, who host the Georgia Bulldogs.
ASU has won four straight, and rolls into this one with a 28-5 mark in regular season non-conference games in the past three seasons, including an 18-1 mark at home.
The defensive pressure the Devils bring will be too much for Georgia, as they've held five opponents under 40 percent shooting and is limiting teams to a mere .289 (52-of-180) from 3-point range.
ASU has registered 84 steals this season, and can disrupt the flow of the opposition with a relentless press. ASU, which is giving up just 64.0 points per game, is stirling foes to .398 shooting from the field.
I would think this will be a big game for Romello White, who is from Atlanta. The junior is off to a great start and has caught fire the past three games, averaging 15.7 points and 13.7 rebounds. In that span he is 15 of 18 (.833) from the floor.
He'll get contributions from Elias Valtonen, Taeshon Cherry, Jalen Graham and Jaelen House.
Lay the points here, as Georgia will wilt under pressure while the Devils prevail.
5* ARIZONA STATE
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Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Saint Mary's Gaels, laying what I see to be a cheap number to the Cal Golden Bears. I know this one is on the road, but Saint Mary’s has won this game the past two seasons and four of the past five.
Cal is struggling to find its rhythm right now, having won just twice in six games, and has already lost at San Francisco and Santa Clara this season. I know the Bears are 6-0 at Haas Pavilion this season, but this undoubtedly is the toughest opponent to visit Berkeley.
The Gaels have had the week off since a 78-68 loss to Dayton at Phoenix last Sunday. The setback snapped an eight-game winning streak, and I expect Saint Mary's to come in focused and ready to execute with its high-potent offense.
Ranked 14th in KenPom's offensive efficiency ratings at 110.9 points per 100 possessions, Saint Mary's has far more offensive firepower than Cal, which is ranked 200th with 98.9 points per 100 possessions.
Once the Gaels catch fire from long-range it's lights out, as they're shooting a nation-best 44 percent from 3-point range. Look for Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts to lead the offensive charge tonight, as Saint Mary's steals one on the road.
2* SAINT MARY'S
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Mitchell Newman
Comp release for Saturday is the points and the Nets to stay close against the slumping Raptors.
Toronto started the season at 9-0 straight up on their home floor, but they come into this Saturday meeting with Brooklyn having won only one time over their last 5 games - that includes 3 straight losses on their home floor!
The Raptors most recent loss saw them net just 92 points as they welcomed Kawhi Leonard and the L.A. Clippers back to the TO.
I say Toronto bounces-back with the win tonight, but this sure looks like too many points to be laying as Brooklyn heads north of the border with some definite wind in their sails.
The Nets did lose at home to Charlotte their last time on court, but Brooklyn is still on a 7-3 straight up run their last 10 games, and better still, they have covered in 8 of those 10 games.
Brooklyn is rolling a perfect 7-0 spread mark their last 7 times in the game following a straight up loss, and I will look for the streak to extend to 8-0 with the cover tonight versus a Toronto team that will be happy just to grab the win and get off the schnied they are on.
3* BROOKLYN
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