Wednesday 12/11/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & NBA games.
NICK BORRMAN SOCCER PLAYS
Game: Lokomotiv Moscow at Atletico Madrid
Date/Time: Dec 11 2019 3:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Atletico Madrid -1.75 (-110)
View Analysis
UEFA Champions League
(224257) Lokomotiv Moscow at (224258) Atletico Madrid
Matchday six of the group stage is all about finding the situations as some teams have very important matches while others are completely meaningless and that's what we have here. Atletico Madrid need a win to secure their spot in the knockout rounds. They lead Bayer Leverkusen by a point for the 2nd spot in the group and Leverkusen has a good chance at a win at home versus Juventus who have nothing to play for having already locked up the top spot in the group.
Lokomotiv have nothing to play for in this match as they will finish bottom of the group regardless of what happens in this game and can't even play for a Europa League spot by finishing 3rd. On top of that, the Russian Premier League played their last matches for the next three months this weekend as they take an extended midseason hiatus due to the harsh winter climate in Russia. You can bet they have already mailed it in and are in break mode. Undoubtedly, this will be an opportunity for the 2nd team and less experienced players to get a run at some game time.
Setting the situation aside, Atletico should still cover just by the numbers. They won the reverse fixture on the road 2-0 outshooting Lokomotiv 19 to 11 with 8 on goal to 3. Last year, these teams met in the knockout rounds of the Europa League with Madrid advancing 8-1 on aggregate winning 3-0 at home and 5-1 away. There is no result but a Madrid win here and I think they win it big, 3-0 or 4-0 and for that reason I'm also on the Over 2.5 in this game.
TAKE ATLETICO MADRID -1.75
Line Parameter: 5% to -2.0, but prefer -1.75 up to -130 to at least get a half-win on a two goal win
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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. In the past four years, he's gone 235-194 on NFL picks, including 61-47 last season. Larry also crushes the NBA playoffs, having gone 56-41 ATS the past two seasons.
Dec NBA 9-10
UTAH -1
UTAH @ MINNESOTA | 12/11 | 8:00 PM EST
9:31 AM
The T-Wolves' bad defense should be the tonic for the struggling Jazz, who have lost six of eight. Minnesota has given up an average of 128.4 points during its five-game skid. Each team already has won on the other's court this season. Look for Bojan Bogdanovic to bounce back from a poor shooting night in OKC as the Jazz win.
22-13-1 IN LAST 36 NBA ATS PICKS | +777
10-4 IN LAST 14 MIN ATS PICKS | +559
5-2 IN LAST 7 UTA ATS PICKS | +280
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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3 Rivers Sports
NCAA BK
3* #645 Arkansas State +9.5
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Billy Coleman
NBA
3* #511/512 Utah/Minnesota under 223
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mti
5-Star Thunder at Kings UNDER 210.5
4.5-Star Magic at Lakers UNDER 213
4-Star Pelicans at Bucks OVER 234
4-Star Grizzlies at Suns OVER 232
4-Star Knicks at Warriors UNDER 209.5
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ELITE SPORTS PICKS
Cal State Fullerton+2.5
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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Arkansas State+8.5 NCAABB
3* Boise State+3 NCAABB
3* Atlanta+5 NBA
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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* California+1.5 NCAAB
3* Lakers-6.5 NBA
3* Warriors-4.5 NBA
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Primetime Sports Picks For 12/11/19
4 Unit --> California +1.5 over Fresno St. (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> Illinois +1 over Michigan (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> Minnesota +1.5 over Utah (NBA)
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Greg Shaker | CBB Total - Wednesday, Dec 11 2019 8:00PM
641 Boise St. / 642 Tulsa OVER 131.5 Westgatetriple-dime bet
Good to 136.5.
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Nigel Seeley soccer
UK league 2
top play Swindon
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NICK BORRMAN GOLF PLAYS
Game: S. Im/A. Hadwin vs P. Cantlay/X. Schauffele
Date/Time: Dec 11 2019 5:45 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: S. Im/A. Hadwin (+130)
View Analysis
President's Cup
(7003) S. Im/A. Hadwin vs (7004) P. Cantlay/X. Schauffele
I do not like this pairing of Cantlay and Schauffele as neither one brings an exciting personality to the match. Only Adam Hadwin has experience in the President's Cup where he was disappointing at 0-2-1 but will look to rebound his second time around. PGA TOUR rookie of the Year SungJae Im could be the star for the international team this week as few have been as consistent as him. He is 7-7 in cuts made this season including a win, a runner-up and a 3rd. While he is new to this type of format, I have little doubts he will excel this week.
Cantlay finished 2nd from the bottom last week at the Hero, 17th out of 18, while Xander wasn't much better at T10. Both had slow starts and couldn't get anything going. They both then had to race across the world to get here for this event, while losing a day mind you because of the time differences, and could be in very some serious jet lag to begin this event. Meanhile Im has stayed in the area since the three events in China, Japan and South Korea while Hadwin last played three weeks ago at the RSM Classic.
I like the price here on the internationals to pull a first round upset.
TAKE ADAM HADWIN & SUNGJAE IM OVER PATRICK CANTLAY & XANDER SCHAUFFELE (This is a Head to Head play on the Day 1 only)
Game: B. Hun An/A. Scott vs T. Finau/B. DeChambeau
Date/Time: Dec 11 2019 6:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: B. Hun An/A. Scott (-110)
View Analysis
President's Cup
(7005) B. Hun An/A. Scott vs (7006) T. Finau/B. DeChambeau
Scott is going to have the course knowledge advantage here and of course home field advantage in his native Australia. For all the three other players, this will be their first tastes at the President's Cup. Finau has been playing well so far this season with his last three starts finishing MC, T53, T59. DeChambeau has been better in his three starts this year with a T4 at Shriners and a T13 at Safeway but also MC at Greenbrier. Shriners was nearly two months ago and that was DeChambeau's last start before finishing 15 out of 18 at the Hero World Challenge last week, while Finau finished T10. Those results are notable mostly because of the fact that the could have some serious jet lag issues here at least in the first day or two whereas Scott and Hun An have been on this side of the world for quite some time. This is the only international team that isn't an underdog on Day 1, and for good reason.
TAKE ADAM SCOTT & BEN HUN AN OVER TONY FINAU & BRYSON DECHAMBEAU (This is a Head to Head play on Day 1 only)
Game: CT. Pan/H. Matsuyma vs P. Reed/W. Simpson
Date/Time: Dec 11 2019 6:15 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: P. Reed/W. Simpson (-155)
View Analysis
President's Cup
(7007) Ct. Pan/H. Matsuyma vs (7008) P. Reed/W. Simpson
Not exactly a great number here, but it is the right side. Few are better than Patrick Reed in these formats with his electrifying first pumps. The crowds will no doubt be out to get on Reed's nerves, but the quiet calm Simpson can just fly under the radar and do his thing, definitely a good opposite of each other type of pairing.
I know I mentioned jet lag as an issue, but I'm not worried about that here as Reed and Simpsons' forms are spectacular. Simpson has started the season T7, T2 and T10 last week at the Hero while Reed has played much more including European Tour starts and is 7-7 in cuts made with with five Top 20's including three Top 10's. Matsuyama has also been hot but CT Pan has not including a missed cut last week in the Australian Open to get ready for this event. Simpson and Reed have plenty of experience in these events, as does Matsuyama, but Pan is a rookie and that could prove to be the difference. Look for Reed to pour it on all week.
TAKE PATRICK REED & WEBB SIMPSON OVER CT PAN & HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (This is a Head to Head play on Day 1 only)
Game: USA at International
Date/Time: Dec 11 2019 9:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 2%
Play: USA (-275)
View Analysis
2019 President's Cup
(7451) USA at (7452) International
Venue: Royal Melbourne, Australia
Not a ton of value here, but just have to put a few bucks on team USA as they look for an eight consecutive win in this competition. Team USA is just head and shoulders above the International team. Don't go big here as the price isn't worth the risk, but go ahead for a couple of bucks.
TAKE TEAM USA OVER TEAM INTERNATIONAL
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Miller locks
7:05 pm est nba
los angeles lakers vs. Orlando magic
pick: Orlando magic +8.5 (-105)
risk: 11 units
8:05 pm est nba
atlanta hawks vs. Chicago bulls
pick: Chicago bulls -5 (-100)
risk: 11 units
8:30 pm est ncaab
chattanooga vs. Virginia tech
pick: Virginia tech -12 (-112)
risk: 11 units
9:00 pm est ncaab
michigan vs. Illinois
pick: Illinois -1.5 (-100)
risk: 11 units
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Mike Barner
Dec NBA 7-7
NEW ORLEANS +10
NEW ORLEANS @ MILWAUKEE | 12/11 | 9:30 PM EST
2:01 PM
As bad as the Pelicans have been, the Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (quad) for this game, making this line way too high. It’s bound to drop as the day progresses, but if you can grab it now, take the Pelicans and the points.
23-10 IN LAST 33 NBA ATS PICKS | +1198
5-2-1 IN LAST 8 NO ATS PICKS | +279
CHICAGO -5
ATLANTA @ CHICAGO | 12/11 | 8:00 PM EST
1:58 PM
This is a battle between two teams who have both struggled out of the gate. I’d normally be a bit nervous taking the Bulls with the line set this high, since they have been prone to fourth-quarter collapses. However, the Hawks could have tired legs since they just played an overtime game against the Heat on Tuesday. They are also just 1-4 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back set, so I’ll take the Bulls to cover.
23-10 IN LAST 33 NBA ATS PICKS | +1198
9-3 IN LAST 12 ATL ATS PICKS | +570
9-7 IN LAST 16 CHI ATS PICKS | +128
CHARLOTTE +10.5
CHARLOTTE @ BROOKLYN | 12/11 | 7:30 PM EST
1:56 PM
The Nets have been excellent at home, posting a 7-4 record against the spread. However, they are only 3-4 ATS at home as favorites. The Hornets have played better than most expected and are 5-6-1 against the spread on the road. They just played Tuesday, but they are a stellar 4-1 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back set. I expect the Nets to win, but I think this game will be close enough that I’ll take the points.
23-10 IN LAST 33 NBA ATS PICKS | +1198
3-0 IN LAST 3 CHA ATS PICKS | +300
2-1 IN LAST 3 BKN ATS PICKS | +90
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John Bollman
THE EXECUTIVE
Dec NHL 8-8
12:33 PM
WASHINGTON -126
BOSTON @ WASHINGTON | 12/11 | 7:00 PM EST
These teams are evenly matched, leading the Eastern Conference in points. Both teams are coming off a loss and both teams are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. However, the Bruins are much worse on the road at 8-4-1 and they already lost to the Caps once this season. The Caps have won 15 of the last 16 games against the Bruins, take the value in the Caps at home.
15-7 IN LAST 22 NHL ML PICKS | +724
8-2 IN LAST 10 WAS ML PICKS | +459
2-1 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS | +75
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Mississippi Kid
UEFA Champios League
Bayern Munchenb -1.5 -114 3U POD
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WUnderdog
NBA
new orleans +13 v milwaukee
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SHARP TOTALS CLUB
2*Rutgers Under 125
2*Arizona Over 146.5
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NBA Club Lakers over 213
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Larry Hartstein
Dec NBA ATS 9-9 TOTALS 0-1
SENIOR ANALYST
4:19 PM
CHICAGO -5.5
ATLANTA @ CHICAGO | 12/11 | 8:00 PM EST
This is a tough spot for the Hawks, who collapsed at the end of Tuesday's game in Miami. They'll face a more-rested Bulls team that took Toronto to the wire on Wednesday. A little over a month ago, Chicago visited Atlanta and won by 20. Lay the points.
22-13-1 IN LAST 36 NBA ATS PICKS | +777
36-16-2 IN LAST 54 CHI ATS PICKS | +1856
13-5 IN LAST 18 ATL ATS PICKS | +750
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Power Plays 10* Houston Rockets
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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
5:43 PM
L.A. CLIPPERS -2.5
L.A. CLIPPERS @ TORONTO | 12/11 | 7:00 PM EST
The Raptors have dropped three of four and won't have Fred VanVleet again tonight in Kawhi Leonard's return. Kyle Lowry hasn't been great lately and now he has to deal with Patrick Beverly. Lay the small number.
22-13-1 IN LAST 36 NBA ATS PICKS | +777
42-27 IN LAST 69 LAC ATS PICKS | +1271
5-2 IN LAST 7 TOR ATS PICKS | +282
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Stevewins
Yale -2.5: 1st Half 5*****Max Play
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Josh Nagel
SENIOR ANALYST
5:14 PM
WISCONSIN +1
WISCONSIN @ RUTGERS | 12/11 | 7:00 PM EST
The Scarlet Knights have become a respectable club that appears on an upward trajectory. Last year, they were a tough out at home and beat many of the Big Ten's middle-to-lower class teams. This line feels a bit trappy, but the Badgers should have an edge. They have played the tougher competition and have quality wins over Marquette and Indiana. For a team that might end up with a borderline tournament resume, Wisconsin needs to take care of business in this one.
8-5 IN LAST 13 CBB PICKS | +240
3-1 IN LAST 4 WISC ATS PICKS | +190
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Zack Cimini
ILLINOIS -1.5
MICHIGAN @ ILLINOIS | 12/11 | 9:00 PM EST
2:12 PM
The Michigan Wolverines avoided back-to-back letdowns with a win over Iowa. They did so by putting on a clinic offensively and scoring 103 points. On Wednesday, they’ll face a Big 10 opponent in the Fighting Illini that nearly defeated Maryland but failed to execute for two halves. Look for that to change as they look to make a statement against Michigan.
5-0-1 IN LAST 6 CBB ATS PICKS | +500
5-2 IN LAST 7 MICH ATS PICKS | +285
CHATTANOOGA +12
CHATTANOOGA @ VA. TECH | 12/11 | 8:30 PM EST
2:10 PM
The Virginia Tech Hokies began the season 6-0 and covered every number in the process. This included a big upset win over Michigan State. They have since suffered three consecutive losses. On Wednesday, they’ll face a small-school opponent in Chattanooga that has value based on the Hokies' losing streak.
5-0-1 IN LAST 6 CBB ATS PICKS | +500
NEW YORK +5
NEW YORK @ GOLDEN ST. | 12/11 | 10:30 PM EST
2:08 PM
New York has lost 10 straight games and just recently fired former coach David Fizdale. In three of their last four games, the Knicks have shown issues offensively, failing to score more than 92 points. This included a 28-point loss Tuesday against the Trail Blazers. Against a Warriors team that has similar issues, grab the points.
9-5 IN LAST 14 NY ATS PICKS | +361
6-4 IN LAST 10 GS ATS PICKS | +152
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Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
2:30 PM
MICHIGAN +104
MICHIGAN @ ILLINOIS | 12/11 | 9:00 PM EST
Michigan enters this game having picked up wins against teams like Iowa State, Creighton, North Carolina, Gonzaga and Iowa. Its lone loss is to Louisville. Illinois is 6-3 and its best win, according to KenPom, is Hawaii. Hawaii is ranked 173rd by KenPom. The Illini have played three top 100 teams and they've lost to them all. Take Michigan straight up.
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Michael Rusk
UT-ARLINGTON +13.5
UT-ARLINGTON @ HOUSTON | 12/11 | 8:00 PM EST
12:05 PM
Coming off a blowout win against South Carolina, I like the Cougars to come out a bit slow against an under the radar Texas-Arlington team. This team has played great teams very tight this season such as Furman, Nevada and Gonzaga. They’re no stranger to a hostile crowd. I like Texas- Arlington to keep this one within the double-digit mark.
9-4 IN LAST 13 CBB ATS PICKS | +450
OVER 209
OKLAHOMA CITY @ SACRAMENTO | 12/11 | 10:00 PM EST
12:00 PM
Just last season when these two teams faced off, Vegas set a total at 240. Averaging the last four games, the total has come to average over the 240 mark as well. Sure, both teams run a slightly slower tempo but this total is way too low. Over is the play.
2-1-1 IN LAST 4 NBA O/U PICKS | +90
NEW ORLEANS +13
NEW ORLEANS @ MILWAUKEE | 12/11 | 9:30 PM EST
11:56 AM
The Pelicans may be struggling the most in the NBA right now. In the midst of a very tough December, they play the hottest team in the league. That being said, on a 15-game winning streak, the Bucks have hit their peak value. After losing on a game winner at home just two nights ago, I like the Pelicans to respond well and give the Bucks a run for it.
ORLANDO +8
L.A. LAKERS @ ORLANDO | 12/11 | 7:00 PM EST
11:46 AM
The Magic are plain and simple a different team at home. Coming into Game 24 fighting to stay at .500 they are a bold 8-4 at the Amway Center. The Lakers are the most overvalued team in the NBA right now and shouldn’t be almost a double-digit favorite on the road against this gritty Orlando team. Especially coming off of three straight wins by 17+ the Lakers are due for regression.
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Worlds Worst Picker CBB
His plays
Tulsa
Michigan
California super pick
We take
Boise
Illinois
Fresno super play
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Tim Doyle
BIG TEN BALLER
2:55 PM
YALE -4.5
YALE @ MASSACHUSETTS | 12/11 | 7:00 PM EST
UMass is a mess, getting trounced by Harvard by 34 last time out. Yale is 8-3 and could easily be undefeated. The Bulldogs gave the game away vs. Penn State, lost in OT to San Francisco and were right there down the stretch at Oklahoma State. Lay the points.
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Seabass : 400 raptors , 400 Magic game under , 400 jazz game over , 400 knicks game under , 400 tcu , 400 cal game over , 400 Tulsa game under , 400 fairleigh dickinson
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