Although the core model is much the same as last year’s version, some changes – for the better, I hope – have been made. Essentially, the model is a data-driven calculation using past performance numbers (team and player) deployed against future matchups, resulting in a projected margin of victory (MOV). That MOV, against the line taken from Vegas Insider’s consensus, projects an ATS pick. As always, the final pick is based on the last posted MOV projection (which won’t change) and the closing line (which frequently does change and occasionally flips the pick); and it is on this calculation that grading the model is based. Being a one-man-band, plus old as dirt, I make mistakes, and sometimes post late, although the closer to tip-off it is, the better, as late scratches impact the outcome, as well as the calculation.
As the NBA season progresses a number of factors will negatively impact the model’s calculation. Bad teams will begin to tank, while play-off bound teams will rest starters by sitting them, reducing their minutes, or stop playing defense – all of which makes “past performance” data pretty useless. When that occurs the model’s projections become misleading; and, once a number of trigger-variables hit their target, I’ll stop posting. Usually, that means running it until just before the all star break.
I’ve added a back-to-back feature to the daily projections, and changed the weekly standings to display a few new stats that may be of use. I’d appreciate comments, to include pointing out errors.
Finally, remember the model doesn’t make “predictions” – just number based projections, which should only be used as a guide and not to blindly tail. You won’t consistently make money betting the NBA if you don’t follow basketball, don’t know players and their tendencies, who’s OUT or IN, the viability of team rotations, and the situational factors of each game (home, away, nationally televised, etc.). That said, unlike football, where luck plays an enormous part, basketball outcomes only rarely depend on luck, so numbers are a good guide.
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The Limper NBA – Week 12/10/19 - 12/16/19
1 month 1 week ago #516760
UCLA vs. Oregon State Prediction The UCLA Bruins have dropped six out of their last 10 games while the Oregon State Beavers have split over their last 10 games. The Pac-12 rivals will meet tonight with the Beavers listed as a home favorite. Will they cover?
Trojans vs. Ducks Prediction The 12th-ranked Oregon Ducks are coming off a thrilling overtime victory on the road as they return home tonight to face the USC Trojans. Is Oregon going to avoid a letdown in this situation?
Washington vs. Utah Prediction Pac-12 rivals Washington and Utah will square off tonight at 8:00 p.m. ET. With the game set as a pick’em and the total dropping from 135.5 to 134, what’s the best bet for bettors in this matchup?
Cougars vs. Buffaloes Prediction The 23rd-ranked Colorado Buffaloes are double-digit home favorites tonight versus the Washington State Cougars. Can Colorado cover the big number against its Pac-12 Conference foe?
Minnesota vs. Ohio State Prediction Big Ten rivals clash in Columbus on Thursday night when Ohio State hosts Minnesota at 6:30 p.m. ET. With the Buckeyes laying eight points and the total listed at 134, where’s the best value for bettors?