Thursday 11/28/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF, & NBA games
Cappers Access
Lions +5.5
Cowboys -7
Saints -7
Ole Miss +2.5
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Mike Wynn
Free Winner: CBB Creighton +1 Over San Diego St
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: CENTRAL FLORIDA +1½ over Pennsylvania
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Totals4U
Thursday's Free Selection: Davidson Wildcats/Marquette Golden Eagles under 141
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Roz Wins
Roz's THURSDAY, November 27, 2019 Free Pick
11/28 09:30 AM NFL (305) CHICAGO BEARS VS (306) DETROIT LIONS
Take : Bears
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Atlantic Sports
Thursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Cal Poly + 7 (CBB)
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#1 Sports
Thursday's Free Selection: Central Florida Golden Knights + 3
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick: the Marquette Golden Eagles -2½ over Davidson
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play Thursday, November 28, 2019
11/28 01:30 PM NFL (307) BUFFALO BILLS VS (308) DALLAS COWBOYS
Take : Bills
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Easy Money Sports
Lee's Free Thanksgiving Day Selection Is
IOWA +6½
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Thursday : IOWA +5½ over Texas Tech
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Golden Dragon
FREE WINNER for Thursday
Mississippi State -2'
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Hawkeye Sports
Thursday's Free Pick: USC Trojans - 14 1/2
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Mississippi/Mississippi State over 58
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Arthur Ralph
FREE play THANKSGIVING Day UNDER 47 Dallas/Bills gm
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The Last Call
Thursday's Free Play: Charleston Cougars + 2
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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Thursday: MARQUETTE -3½ over Dayton
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Thursday: San Diego State Aztecs - 1
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Kenny Towers
Your Free Pick for Thursday: Chic/Det UNDER 37
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Stephen DeAngelo
Terrible call with Wednesday’s complimentary selection on the Knicks, who no-showed in Toronto. For your Thanksgiving Day freebie, we’ll lay the small price with the Bears in the opener of today’s NFL tripleheader.
I’m not about to start singing the praises of the Bears, who last week barely escaped with a 19-14 home victory over the woeful Giants and who are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven outings (including 0-3 SU and ATS on the highway). Chicago is far from a quality football team, and a big reason why is it doen’t have a quality quarterback. After a decent sophomore campaign in 2018, Mitchell Trubisky has been mostly dreadful all season.
That said, Trubisky’s best game of 2019 came against the Lions three weeks ago—he only passed for 173 yards, but he tossed three TDs and (most importantly) didn’t get picked off in a 20-13 home victory. In other words, Trubisky took full advantage of a horrific Lions pass defense that’s giving up 275.5 passing yards per game and allowing opposing passers to post an average QB rating of 96.4!
And while the Bears have been pretty putrid of late, the Lions have been even worse. They have just one win since Sept. 22 (a 31-28 home triumph over the aforementioned woeful Giants). Detroit came up short as a 6½-point chalk in that victory, which is among six consecutive non-covers for the Lions heading into today.
Speaking of non-covers, that’s been Detroit’s M.O. on Thanksgiving over the past decade-and-a-half: The Lions have cashed just four times in their last 15 Thanksgiving games. That includes last year’s 23-16 loss to these same Bears as a three-point underdog. What stands out most about last year’s matchup is the Lions had a healthy Matthew Stafford under center and still only produced 16 points. This year, Stafford will be on the sidelines as he continues to deal with a back issue. Not only that, but Stafford's backup—the very below-average Jeff Driskel, who tossed three picks in last week's loss to the 1-9 Redskins—won't start because of an injured hamstring. That leaves Detroit's offense in the hands of someone named David Blough, an undrafted rookie from Purdue.
That's right: An undrafted rookie making his first career NFL start ... on Thanksgiving Day ... against Khalil Mack and Co. Yikes!
Again, nobody’s going to mistake the Bears for the Patriots, but they’re significantly better than the Lions. As long as Chicago comes ready to play (always iffy on Thanksgiving), it will take care of business and beat the Lions by at least a touchdown.
4* CHICAGO BEARS
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Mitchell Newman
When the teams played on November 10th at Soldier Field, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was a late scratch and the line on the game rose to Chicago -6 1/2 points. It was a rather non-descript game, but the Bears did prevail by a 20-13 score which was good enough for a third straight Bears series win and cover.
One of those three wins and covers came last year on Thanksgiving Day, as the Bears won that game at Ford Field, 23-16 as the -3 point road chalk.
Deja Vu all over again today, as we have a similar number being placed on this meeting that is being played in the same venue. That Lions pointspread failure on Turkey Day a season ago drops their spread mark to just 4-11 their last 15 played on this holiday!
Stafford is still sidelined, and while Mitchell Trubisky is not instilling too much confidence among the Bears faithful these days, I believe he does rate the edge over the available Detroit quarterbacks.
Jeff Driskel who was sacked an alarming 6 times on Sunday at Washington, and was also picked off 3 times in that loss. Driskel is officially listed as the backup for this game, as he has a hamstring injury that will keep him on the sidelines.
That means undrafted Purdue rookie David Blough will make his first career NFL start. Good luck with that Detroit!
The Lions have now dropped their last 4 and 7 of their last 8 overall straight up and failed 6 in a row against the spread.
The Bears defense rates the nod over the Lions defense as of this writing, so inclined to lay the field goal with the flawed visitors who despite their 1-6 spread mark their last 7 games remain a better choice than the very flawed host.
Chicago has won 2 of their last 3 on the year, look for them to up it to 3 of 4 as the defense sets up Trubisky and the struggling offense with a couple of short-field scoring opportunities that will lead to a 9 point victory.
Turkey of a game to start Turkey Day, but my money is on Chicago.
3* CHICAGO
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Bob Valentino
No doubt that the Dallas Cowboys will be itching to get the taste of their most recent loss out of their mouths right quick when they take to the field this Thanksgiving afternoon against the Buffalo Bills, but the question remains can Dallas get back in the win column by the number required to cover today at home?
Buffalo improved to 8-3 on the season with a dominant 20-3 home win and cover over Denver on Sunday in a game they limited the Broncos to just 9 total first downs and a paltry 134 total yards of offense. Tough to take to the road for these Thursday games and it is especially tough with this being a holiday Thursday at that, but I feel the Bills can make these points work in their favor in this spot.
The Bills bring a 3-0-1 spread mark this season as the underdog into this game at AT&T Stadium, while the Cowboys loss to the Patriots on Sunday means they are 0-4 now when playing teams with a winning record (Pats, Vikings, Packers and Saints) this season. It should also be noted that while Dallas did cover in their annual Thanksgiving game last season, they are still just 1-7 against the spread their last 8 on Thanksgiving Day.
Some will day that the Buffalo 8-3 mark is a bit overvalued based on the teams they have beat up on to get to that lofty win total, and while that may be true, the Bills do present a solid defense today that is equipped to slow down Dak, Zeke and the Cowboys offense, and Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has limited the turnovers to just one pick over the Bills last 6 games.
The upcoming schedule for Buffalo shows Baltimore on the card next and then road games at Pittsburgh and New England also to come before closing at home with a Jets team that has picked up some steam. Sean McDermott's team is going to be tested and while I am not 100% convinced they are going to win this game outright, the points are just too good to pass on against this Dallas team that is officially treading on very thin ice after owner Jerry Jones' latest press conference after the New England loss.
Have to take the points today.
3* BUFFALO
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Totals Guru
Nov 28 '19, 11:00 AM in 1h
NCAA-B | Maryland vs Temple
Play on: OVER 136½ -110
Free Total Annihilator On Maryland vs Temple over 136½ -110
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Kenny Walker
Nov 28 '19, 12:30 PM in 3h
NFL | Bears vs Lions
Play on: Lions +6½ -110 at Bovada
Free Pick on Lions
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Brandon Lee
Nov 28 '19, 12:30 PM in 3h
NFL | Bears vs Lions
Play on: Lions +4½ -110 at 5dimes
10* FREE NFL PICK (Lions +4.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Lions as a 4.5-point dog. For me the most obvious reason to lean Detroit is the last time these two teams played. I know Chicago won the game, but they didn’t really feel like the better team. While they put up 20 points, the offense did next to nothing for the majority of the game. They scored a TD in the final seconds before half and then scored two more TD’s in the first 6 minutes of the 3rd quarter. They only had 226 total yards for the game and 156 of those came on two drives.
Driskel and the Lions offense put up 357 yards in the loss. They just couldn’t finish off drives early and had a big turnover that led to a quick score for Chicago. I’m not expecting a lot out of Detroit’s offense in this one, but I think they can definitely do enough on their home turf to win this game.
The other thing to keep in mind with the Lions loss to the Redskins is the defense did their part. Detroit only gave up 230 yards and Washington’s only TD for the game came on a 91-yard kickoff return for a score.
Lastly, as bad as it’s been for the Lions we can bank on them giving max effort in this one, as there’s a lot of pride within that organization when it comes to playing on Thanksgiving Day. Give me Detroit +4.5!
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Mike Williams
Nov 28 '19, 12:30 PM in 3h
NFL | Bears vs Lions
Play on: Lions +6½ -110 at Bovada
1* on Lions +6½ -110
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Steve Janus
Nov 28 '19, 4:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-B | Wake Forest vs College of Charleston
Play on: Wake Forest -1 -105 at 1BetVegas
1* Free Sharp Play on Wake Forest -1 -105
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Jimmy Boyd
Nov 28 '19, 7:30 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
Play on: Ole Miss +2½ -109 at GTBets
1* NCAAF - Free Pick on Ole Miss Rebels +2½ -109
The betting public is hammering Mississippi State. , They see the Bulldogs as the only team with something to play for. Ole Miss is 4-7 and there season will end no matter what. Miss State is 5-6 needing to win here to get a bowl.
I fully expect the Rebels to treat this as if it was their bowl game and it does have a little bit of that feel with Ole Miss coming off their bye. There's not many teams they want to beat more than their in-state rivals and knowing they can keep the Bulldogs from bowl eligibility only adds that much more fuel to the fire.
You also have to look at the body of work for the Rebels. They might just be the best 4-7 team in the country. Ole Miss has played a brutal schedule and their only two losses by more than 11 points were against Alabama and LSU.
I'm also just not sold at all on Mississippi State. Bulldogs have gone just 3-6 since starting out 2-0 and those 3 wins are against Kentucky, Arkansas and Abilene Christian.
Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, while Miss St is just 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a SEC opponent. Road team has also covered 4 straight in the series. Take Ole Miss!
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Rob Vinciletti
Nov 28 '19, 7:30 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
Play on: Ole Miss +2½ -107 at Pinnacle
The SEC Play is on Ole Miss at 7:30 eastern. The Rebels have 32 point home loss revenge for a loss as a 13 point favorite last season. Now they have the extra week of rest and Miss St is on short rest. The Rebels have covered the last 4 after allowing 450+ yards, 5 of 6 off a loss and 4 of 5 after rushing for 200+ yards which they did on LSU Last out. They have played common opponents tougher then Miss. St and at 4-7 this is their bowl game and they can knock Miss. St out of the bowl picture with a win here. Miss. St has failed to cover 4 of 5 off a win, 5 of 6 in conference. The Favorite in the series has failed to cover 5 of 7 and the home team is 0-4 ats. Look for the Rebels to get the cash. NFL 6-0 on Sunday. More Damage on Turkey day. For the free play. Play on Ole Miss +2.5- RV- GC Sports
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Bobby Conn
Nov 28 '19, 10:30 PM in 13h
NCAA-B | Creighton vs San Diego State
Play on: San Diego State -1 -109 at GTBets
1* Free Play on San Diego State -1 -109
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Jack Jones
Nov 28 '19, 10:30 PM in 13h
NCAA-B | Creighton vs San Diego State
Play on: San Diego State -1 -109 at GTBets
Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: San Diego State -1
The San Diego State Aztecs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They are off to a 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS start this season with five wins by double-digits. The only exception was a 76-71 upset road win at BYU as 3.5-point dogs.
I haven’t been very impressive with the Creighton Bluejays, who are 4-1 SU & 1-4 ATS this season. Their two covers came by a combined 2.5 points. They lost at Michigan 69-79 as 5.5-point dogs. They only beat Cal Poly by 16 as 24.5-point favorites. And they only beat North Florida by 9 as 17-point favorites.
To compare, a bad Iowa team beat Cal Poly by 26 and North Florida by 15. And I think San Diego State is better than Iowa, so I certainly have to think they are better than Creighton when you consider the Bluejays underperformed compared to Iowa in common opponents. And SDSU is by far the better defensive team, holding opponents to 56.0 points per game this season compared to 68.6 points per game allowed by Creighton.
Creighton is 1-8 ATS off two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers. San Diego State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. Big East opponents. The Aztecs are 31-15-4 ATS in their last 50 games following an ATS win. The Bluejays are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games. Bet San Diego State Thursday.
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Hunter Price
Nov 28 '19, 10:30 PM in 13h
NCAA-B | Creighton vs San Diego State
Play on: San Diego State -1 -109 at GTBets
1* Free Pick on San Diego State -1 -109
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Paul Leiner
Thanksgiving picks 11/28 Happy Thanksgiving
100* Bills +6.5
100* Over 37 Bears/Lions
100* Over 58 Ole Miss/Miss State
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