Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 11/15/19
Friday’s games
Louisiana Tech won its last eight games after an opening loss at Texas; Bulldogs scored 42+ points in last four games- they won last three road games, by 28-3-21 points- three of their last four games went over total. Tech is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a road underdog; they lost 26-23 to Marshall in 2014, teams’ only meeting in last 20 years. Thundering Herd won its last four games after a 2-3 start; Marshall is 4-12 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 0-3 TY- five of their last seven games went over.
Fresno State lost three of last five games; they allowed 38.7 ppg in last three, giving up 500+ TY in all three. Bulldogs split their four road games TY- under Tedford, they’re 5-2-2 ATS as a road favorite, 0-1 TY. Bulldogs’ last five games went over the total. San Diego State was ranked #24 in country LW, then lost at home to Nevada, snapping the Aztecs’ 4-game win streak. San Diego St is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY; seven of their eight games went under the total. Mountain West road favorites are 7-2 ATS this year.
Matchup Skinny
Edge
LA TECH at MARSHALL...La Tech has won last 8 SU TY, 6-1 vs. spread last 7 in 2019. Skip 17-6-1 as dog since 2014 (1-1 TY). Herd 0-5 vs. spread at home TY, no covers last six as host.
La Tech, based on team trends.
FRESNO STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Tedford 23-11-3 vs. line with Fresno since 2017 (though 3-5-1 TY). Bulldogs 2-1 as road dog TY, 8-1 as dog away from home since 2017. Aztecs just 2-9 vs. line at home since LY. Dog team has covered last three in series.
Fresno State, based on team and series trends.
Fresno State at San Diego State
Matt Blunt
Venue/Location: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
Time/TV: Friday, Nov. 15 (ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Pick 'em, Total 43.5
There is a big time Mountain West showdown this Friday, as the defending conference champions (Fresno State) hope that the can go out on the road and play spoiler to a San Diego State team that hopes it's there name beside the conference champion moniker by this year's end.
A win by the Aztecs would put them in the driver's seat in the West division before their big trip to Hawaii next week, while a loss would only add more tension and pressure. Feeling tension and pressure are two things not commonly associated with touching down on the islands of Hawaii, but should San Diego State fall this week to Fresno, it might be the beginning of the end for San Diego State's conference title dreams in 2019.
And after last week's play on the 'under' in the Washington/Oregon State game brought a no-sweat winner, hopefully the move over to the Mountain West conference this week can bring the same results.
Betting Odds: Fresno State vs San Diego State (pick'em); Total set at 43
This line has already seen significant movement on the side and total, as the total's come down from it's opener of 44.5, while it appears that there aren't many in the market looking to back the Aztecs, as their opener of -2.5 has only gone against them. And given that San Diego State struggled to get by UNLV as a -10 favorite two weeks ago, and then lost outright to Nevada (17-13) as -17 home chalk, it's not hard to see the reasoning behind wanting to go against San Diego State. After all, this is a team that averages just 20.8 points per game on offense this year, and winning consistently in college is rather hard with that type of point production.
For Fresno State, this was always going to be a type of “reloading” year for the program after they had so many valuable and talented upperclassmen lead them to a conference championship a year ago. The Bulldogs came into 2019 as a very young team, and having alternated wins with losses the past six games, the inconsistency in putting together a strong 60 minutes on a weekly basis is a sign of a young team. Following that patter would suggest a win for Fresno State this week, but at 3-5-1 ATS this year, it's not like they've been world beaters against the number either.
In terms of the total, the move downwards is always going to be expected for San Diego State games given how low scoring they tend to be. The Aztecs have only cashed one 'over' ticket in eight tries this year, and that game finished with just 48 total points. Yet, given the Fresno State love, this total going low isn't exactly correlated with that side, as Fresno's 7-2 O/U on the season and has only had one total close lower then 50 on the year. With all the Fresno State love that's already come in, you'd expect to see more support for the 'over', and that's just not the case. Therefore, from a side perspective, can San Diego be trusted to get the job done given that oddsmakers do expect their style of play to be the main form of action given the lower total?
If you are going to do one thing in college football, you'd better be able to do it good, and San Diego State's defense is THAT good. Yes, the results have looked rather ugly the past two weeks, but it's three straight weeks of holding foes to just 17 points, and they've held opponents at/below that threshold in seven of their nine games this year. The Aztecs are 6-1 SU in those seven games, so clearly they are doing something right, even with an offensive unit that's hard to watch at times. 20 points per game on offense has been good enough to go 7-2 SU overall so far, and with where the line is now, you've just got to worry about picking the winner.
One of the toughest situations for young programs like Fresno is always going up against a stout defense. The college game is built on higher scoring, back-and-forth type play because of talent mismatches, coaching mismatches, and/or more schematic breakdowns by younger guys still learning the game. San Diego State's defense just doesn't have those schematic breakdowns that opponents can count on to put up points and keep themselves in the game. That puts Aztecs opponents in a tough spot if San Diego isn't mistake prone themselves on offense, and I'm not sure this 2019 Fresno State team will be able to take advantage of that scenario.
Sure, San Diego State could look awful on offense at times, but if this game does turn out to be a 20-17 or 23-20 type game, who would you rather trust in that situation: Fresno State or San Diego State?
I believe you've got to back the Aztecs defense in that scenario every time out, and coming off an embarrassing loss as three-score home favorites, I do like the Aztecs chances to bounce back offensively as well. This Fresno State team is used to playing games where the first to 35 points win, and that's quite far from the realm of how this game plays out that the lack of comfort Fresno State will have because of it will start to show up early on.
San Diego State is already 1-0 SU and ATS after their other outright loss this year, and that 24-10 win over Colorado State was arguably their most complete win of the season. The Aztecs scored points in every quarter that day, and let the defense do what they do in quarters 2, 3, and 4 while San Diego State's offense put up majors in each frame to build a 24-3 lead. A garbage time score was conceded after that, and this week's home game vs Fresno should have a very similar script when it's all said and done.
NCAAF
Dunkel
Louisiana Tech @ Marshall
Game 315-316
November 15, 2019 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
78.586
Marshall
86.608
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Marshall
by 8
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marshall
by 5 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(-5 1/2); Under
Fresno State @ San Diego St
Game 317-318
November 15, 2019 @ 9:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
80.611
San Diego St
77.619
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Fresno State
by 3
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Fresno State
Pick
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Fresno State
Under
NCAAF
Trend Report
Friday, November 15
Louisiana Tech @ Marshall
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Louisiana Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Marshall
Marshall is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Marshall's last 12 games
Fresno State @ San Diego State
Fresno State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Fresno State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fresno State's last 5 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 5 games when playing Fresno State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Diego State's last 10 games
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, November 15
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LOUISIANA TECH (8 - 1) at MARSHALL (6 - 3) - 11/15/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISIANA TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MARSHALL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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FRESNO ST (4 - 5) at SAN DIEGO ST (7 - 2) - 11/15/2019, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons