Thursday 11/14/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF, & NBA games
Marco 5%
Browns
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Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
YESTERDAY 8:35 PM
PITTSBURGH -5
NORTH CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH | 11/14 | 8:00 PM EST
The Tar Heels have been exciting to watch in coach Mack Brown's return to the sideline. I like how competitive they've been from the start. In this game, on a short week, we'll find out how disciplined they can be with a shortened game plan. Plus, Pittsburgh has been playing better defense, so it'll have to be a clean game by the Tar Heels in order to get the win. That's a tough ask for a very young football team.
79-45 IN LAST 124 CFB ATS PICKS | +3034
10-1-1 IN LAST 12 UNC ATS PICKS | +890
3-0 IN LAST 3 PITT ATS PICKS | +300
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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
YESTERDAY 2:34 PM
PITTSBURGH +2.5
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | 11/14 | 8:20 PM EST
The Browns haven't committed a turnover in two straight games -- a streak I expect will end Thursday versus Pittsburgh's ferocious defense. The Steelers should get James Conner back from his shoulder injury, which would be a huge boost to their offense. In their last six games, the Steelers are 5-1 with the only loss coming in overtime to the Ravens. The Browns were fortunate to beat Buffalo, as the Bills missed two field goals, including a 34-yarder. Grab the points with a Pittsburgh team that's 7-0-1 straight-up in the last eight meetings.
36-19-2 IN LAST 57 NFL ATS PICKS | +1490
5-1 IN LAST 6 PIT ATS PICKS | +389
2-0-1 IN LAST 3 CLE ATS PICKS | +200
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StatCaddie NHL
hurricanes
sharks
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Football jesus : Steelers
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NBASELECTION
Los Angeles Clippers -6
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Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
12:28 AM
PITTSBURGH +3
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | 11/14 | 8:20 PM EST
The Steelers are hot, they have 26 takeaways this year and they're playing against a guy who can be a turnover machine. Mason Rudolph threw for 242 yards last week; everyone rips him but he's pretty good. James Conner will be back this week, boosting the offense. Cleveland should not be favored.
5-1-1 IN LAST 7 CLE ATS PICKS | +389
R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 7:17 PM
PITTSBURGH +3
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | 11/14 | 8:20 PM EST
The story of this game will be takeaways, as the Steelers defense has racked up at least three takeaways in five straight games while posting the No. 1 turnover rate in the league. Baker Mayfield has the second-most interceptions in the league, and he plays behind an offensive line that should struggle to keep the Steelers pass rush at bay. The Pittsburgh O-line, which ranks No. 1 in adjusted sack rate this year, won't have similar issues against the Browns, especially with Olivier Vernon out. Pittsburgh leans on the run game and defense to pick up a road divisional win here.
3-1 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +194
16-9 IN LAST 25 PIT ATS PICKS | +603
10-6-2 IN LAST 18 CLE ATS PICKS | +345
Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 4:42 PM
OVER 40.5
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | 11/14 | 8:20 PM EST
Pittsburgh RB James Conner returns from a two-game absence due to a shoulder injury and upgrades the offense. He rushed for 145 yards in his last game and caught seven passes for 78 yards in his previous outing. The Steelers scored at least 20 points in seven straight prior to last week while Cleveland could reach that mark if QB Baker Mayfield targets WR Odell Beckham Jr. more often. Browns RB Kareem Hunt shook off the rust from his half-season suspension on Sunday and will contribute more.
8-3-1 IN LAST 12 NFL O/U PICKS | +470
9-4 IN LAST 13 PIT O/U PICKS | +468
Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
YESTERDAY 3:32 PM
PITTSBURGH +130
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | 11/14 | 8:20 PM EST
Both teams are coming off victories, but I like Pittsburgh to extend its winning streak to five games as it is winning more than 50 percent of my simulations. The Steelers will have RB James Conner back from his shoulder injury and are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with the Browns (7-0-1). Cleveland has yet to post back-to-back victories this season and will be denied again by a solid Pittsburgh defense.
8-5-1 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +249
2-1-1 IN LAST 4 PIT ML PICKS | +355
Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
YESTERDAY 12:55 PM
PITTSBURGH +3
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | 11/14 | 8:20 PM EST
With Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb in the backfield, the Browns offense figures to be a tough challenge for the Steelers. The hope is that the Cleveland defense can make things complicated for Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph. He is holding back the offense, but the Steelers defense hasn't held back since Minkah Fitzpatrick arrived.
27-16 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS | +932
Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
MON 11/11
PITTSBURGH +2.5
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | 11/14 | 8:20 PM EST
The Browns haven't committed a turnover in two straight games -- a streak I expect will end Thursday versus Pittsburgh's ferocious defense. The Steelers should get James Conner back from his shoulder injury, which would be a huge boost to their offense. In their last six games, the Steelers are 5-1 with the only loss coming in overtime to the Ravens. The Browns were fortunate to beat Buffalo, as the Bills missed two field goals, including a 34-yarder. Grab the points with a Pittsburgh team that's 7-0-1 straight-up in the last eight meetings.
36-19-2 IN LAST 57 NFL ATS PICKS | +1490
5-1 IN LAST 6 PIT ATS PICKS | +389
2-0-1 IN LAST 3 CLE ATS PICKS | +200
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Stephen Oh
Miami -2.5
My projections love the Heat as small road chalk Thursday against the Cavaliers. I've got Miami winning by at least nine points and covering the spread in nearly 70 percent of simulations. The Heat have been one of the NBA's more improved teams so far and already have three solid road wins to their credit. At 4-6, the Cavaliers have likely been better than most observers expected, but they are given a bit too much respect in this spread.
4-0 IN LAST 4 MIA ATS PICKS | +400
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Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
Emory is the founder and CEO of Football Gameplan, which has been supplying analysis of all levels of football since 2007. Born and raised in New Orleans, Hunt played running back at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette and coached high school football before starting Football Gameplan. Hunt is a regular contributor to CBS Sports HQ, where he breaks down CFB and NFL games with Danny Kanell and Raja Bell.
FEATURED PICK
BUFFALO -6
BUFFALO @ KENT ST. | 11/14 | 7:00 PM EST
TUE 11/12
I like how the Golden Flashes have improved this season under second year coach Sean Lewis. They've been playing competitively, and I feel that they are a year away from being a factor in the MAC. Meanwhile Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson is a chunk play waiting to happen and is averaging 110.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. He's five yards short of 1,000 yards on the season. He'll cross that barrier and more en route to a Bulls victory. Lay it with Buffalo.
82-45 IN LAST 127 CFB ATS PICKS | +3334
2-1 IN LAST 3 BUFF ATS PICKS | +88
PITTSBURGH -5
NORTH CAROLINA @ PITTSBURGH | 11/14 | 8:00 PM EST
The Tar Heels have been exciting to watch in coach Mack Brown's return to the sideline. I like how competitive they've been from the start. In this game, on a short week, we'll find out how disciplined they can be with a shortened game plan. Plus, Pittsburgh has been playing better defense, so it'll have to be a clean game by the Tar Heels in order to get the win. That's a tough ask for a very young football team.
82-45 IN LAST 127 CFB ATS PICKS | +3334
10-1-1 IN LAST 12 UNC ATS PICKS | +890
3-0 IN LAST 3 PITT ATS PICKS | +300
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ELITE SPORTS PICKS
Kent State+6 (NCAAFB)
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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Siena+12 (NCAABB)
3* Bucks-11.5
3* Steelers+2.5
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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Florida-17 (NCAABB)
3* Steelers/Browns OVER 40.5
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Primetime Sports Picks For 11/14/19
4 Unit --> Florida -17 over Towson (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> North Carolina/Pittsburgh UNDER 50.5 (NCAAF)
3 Unit --> Michigan St. -5.5 over Seton Hall (NCAAB)
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Goodfella 3*
Steelers
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Chris Fallica (The Bear)
Kent +6
The Bear: I don't really understand the line move from Buffalo -1 to -6, so I will take the points with the home 'dog here. Sure, the Bulls have covered in four straight, but Kent State has blown out a bad team at home (Bowling Green), beat a good FCS team (Kennesaw State) and was actually favored at home against the team that could be the best in the MAC (Miami Ohio). All three of the Golden Flashes' MAC losses have been one-score affairs, and our numbers have Buffalo by about two. I'll go against the line move here and grab the six.
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Marc Lawrence
NFL Thursday Night Never Lost Kill Play!
Steelers
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MTI
4.5-Star Steelers +2.5 over BROWNS The Steelers have benefitted from a positive takeaway margin in each of their last two games and the Browns are a home favorite off a game as a home favorite. This activates a nice system that states, Regular season home favorites that have averaged less than 32:50 of possession time are 0-19 ATS on grass when they are off a game as a home favorite and they are facing a team that had fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last two games. The SDQL text is:
HF and REG and surface=grass and p:HF and op:TOM<0 and opp:TOM<0 and tA(TOP)=20081000
The Chargers were in this spot in week 6. They lost 24-17 laying 6 at home to the Steelers.
The Browns have not been able to capitalize on teams that have a sluggish offense and a ball-hawking defense. First, Cleveland is 0-14 ATS on grass when they are off a game as a home favorite and they are facing a team that has committed at least 4.6 penalties per game and has converted less than 40.5% of their third downs. The SDQL is:
team=Browns and surface=grass and p:HF and oS(100*3DM) / oS(3DA) 200 and season >= 2003
Secondly, Cleveland is 0-14 ATS on grass when they are off a home game and they are facing a team that is above 500 on the season and has forced an average of more than 1.7 turnovers per game.
team=Browns and surface=grass and p:H and oA(o:TO) > 1.7 and o:WP > 50 and date>=20081200
Teams in the Steelers' spot have been underestimated by the linesmakers for some time now. Road dogs on grass that are off a game as a home dog in which they allowed a completion percentage of less than 70% are 17-0 ATS since the start of the 2015 season when facing a team that has committed an average of more than 1.7 turnovers per game. The SDQL text is:
AD and surface=grass and p:HD and oA(TO)>1.7 and po:CP= 2015
The Steelers themselves are a unrelenting 10-0 ATS (+9.15 ppg) as a dog off a home SU and ATS win and a very impressive 13-0 ATS (+10.65 ppg) as a dog on grass to a team that is averaging less than 5.65 rushing first downs per game. Despite being the dog in each one of the 13 games, the Steelers are 12-1 straight up, with their only loss as a 7.5 dog in the playoffs. Check it out with this SDQL:
team=Steelers and D and surface=grass and oA(RFD)<5.65
If you cant move the chains on the ground, you should not be giving points to the Steelers.
MTis FORECAST: Steelers 20 BROWNS 6
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Friends of Mike Lee
NCAA BK
3* #667 Michigan State -6
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CleInsiderSports
NFL
Browns ML (-150)
NCAAF
Pittsburgh -4
NBA
Mavericks -7.5
NCAAB
Pass
NHL
Rangers ML (+220)
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Root
Mill- Cleveland
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Fezzik:
666 Arizona/ 665 San Jose St. Over 142.5 2*
314 Pittsburgh -4 vs 313 North Carolina 2*
312 Kent St. / 311 Buffalo Under 51 2*
505 Dal -7 vs 506 NYK 3*
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Sharpshooter
7*-Dallas-7
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Rockdeman Sports (CBB Play of the Day) - Long Beach State +21
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Paul Leiner
2000* Over 41 Browns/Steelers
100* North Carolina +4.5
100* Buffalo -6
100* San Diego -2
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The Stratosphere Release!!!!!
North Carolina/Pittsburgh under 50 1/2
500,000* AFC North Thursday Night Football Lock of the Year!!!!!
Pittsburgh Steelers + 2 1/2
You Win or we'll email you Friday's College Football Free of Charge!!!
Football Bonus Winners
Kent State + 6 1/2
North Carolina + 4
Pittsburgh/Cleveland over 40 1/2
Buffalo/Kent State over 56 1/2
500,000* Big Ten/Big East Challenge TV Lock of the Year!!!!!
Penn State Lions + 2 1/2
500,000* NBA Basketball on TNT Super Lock of the Month!!!!!
New York Knicks + 7 1/2
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Dwayne Bryant
668 Seton Hall UNDER 139 (-110) BET SIZE = 4%
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Brandon Lang
BIGGEST THURSDAY NIGHT RELEASE OF THE YEAR
NFL WINNER #3 IN A ROW
80 DIME
ODDSMAKER ERROR
GAME OF THE YEAR
#2 IN A ROW
Pittsburgh Steelers +3
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Miller locks
8:05 pm est nba
los angeles clippers vs. New orleans pelicans
pick: Over 235.5 (-102)
risk: 11 units
8:20 pm est nfl
pittsburgh steelers vs. Cleveland browns
pick: Pittsburgh steelers +3 (-110)
risk: 11 units
8:30 pm est ncaab
michigan state vs. Seton hall
pick: Seton hall +5 (-109)
risk: 11 units
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Top Rank Liars
Marquee Picks For 11/14/19
4★ Siena +12 over Harvard (NCAAB)
3★ North Carolina/Pittsburgh OVER 50.5 (NCAAF)
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Tom Stryker
103-65 ATS NCAA ELITE SYSTEM WAGER
Pittsburgh
17-3 ATS NCAA PRIMETIME MONEY-MAKER
Buffalo
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Flexbets
Idaho/UC Davis under 130 LARGE
UC Davis team total under 68 MEDIUM
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Wise Guy Javier Top Total Denver over NBA
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Dave Aquino
Nov14 - NBA: LA Clippers -3.5
Nov14 - NHL (home): Tampa Bay -1 (-155), Vancouver (-148), Los Angeles (-144)
Nov14 - NHL (totals): Dallas/Vancouver under 5.5, Detroit/Los Angeles under 6
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Bezobets
2u Browns -3
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Sports Formula Plus (Alex Simi) NBA
Over [501] Miami Heat vs. [502] Cleveland Cavaliers
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Tri Lambda NCAF
[311] Buffalo Bulls
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Pro Elite NFL
[310] Cleveland Browns
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Jack Winningham
NHL
Carolina -135
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VegasGuysVIP
UC Davis over 61 1H +105
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Worlds Worst Picker
His picks
Georgetown
Towson
Long Beach
We take
Penn st
Florida
Saint Mary’s
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Pro Info Sports
4.5-STAR OVER 41.5 Pittsburgh v. Cleveland
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Seabass : 300 cavaliers , 300 atl hawks , 400 bulls , 500 bulls game over , 300
buffalo (NCAAF), 700 North Carolina (NCAAF ) 400 Winnipeg Jets game over , no limit Steelers game under
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Bondi
3* Cleveland
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Nover 3* - Pitt/cle over
Essler 3* - Ncaro/Pitt under
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Spartan
clev -2.5
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Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
Bill Marzano takes a basic approach to handicapping: He follows each sport daily, analyzing stats and trends, injuries and personnel. He homes in on refs and umps to get an edge. And he uses all the resources he's compiled over the years. Marzano believes in patience and doesn’t play games every day or just because he’s up or down or on a streak. He likes run lines, puck lines and isn’t afraid of a two- or three-game parlay. Marzano excels in every major sport and absolutely dominates the NHL. Over the past four years, he's returned a documented profit of $10,091 to $100 NHL players.
PITTSBURGH +3
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND | 11/14 | 8:20 PM EST
1:35 PM
This is a huge game for both teams with the Steelers riding a four-game winning streak and the Browns facing a must-win situation at 3-6. The Browns have just one home win and face a Steelers team that is playing really well defensively. Cornerback Minkah FItzpatrick has solidified this defense, which has scored in three straight games. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield is too inconsistent with just nine touchdowns against 12 interceptions, while Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph has filled in nicely with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. Take the points.
8-3 IN LAST 11 NFL PICKS | +468
DALLAS -7.5
DALLAS @ NEW YORK | 11/14 | 8:00 PM EST
1:29 PM
The horrible Knicks are off to their worst start in team history and are having problems from the owner to the front office to the coach. Don’t look for the Mavericks to show any mercy after losing to the Knicks just six days ago -- one of just two Knicks wins on the season. The road team has won the last five in this series, and that bodes well for a Mavs team that's both 4-1 straight up and against the spread on the road this year. The Knicks are getting outscored by an average of 14.5 points per game at home. Dallas covers.
MIAMI -4
MIAMI @ CLEVELAND | 11/14 | 6:00 PM EST
1:21 PM
The Heat are off to a solid 7-3 start (7-2-1 against the spread) despite battling a plethora of injuries. Jimmy Butler is doing a great job getting his teammates involved. Meanwhile the Cavs are showing some promise under new coach John Beilein but are still in a rebuilding mode. The Heat have won five straight meetings and eight of the last 10 and are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight Thursday games. Lay the points.
PENN ST. +2.5
PENN ST. @ GEORGETOWN | 11/14 | 6:30 PM EST
1:17 PM
Penn State is a very much improved from last year's 14-18 squad. The Nittany Lions have three guards averaging double digits in scoring, and they should be able to get off some quality shots against a Hoyas team that's struggling defensively. The Lions are 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine against the Big East and 10-1-2 in their last 13 overall. The Hoyas are just 11-29 ATS in their last 40 non-conference games. Take the points.
8-3-2 IN LAST 13 CBB PICKS | +468
VANDERBILT +6
VANDERBILT @ RICHMOND | 11/14 | 7:00 PM EST
1:08 PM
First-year Vanderbilt coach Jerry Stackhouse is trying to bring some credibility back to the program and has started off with two solid wins. The Commodores like to shoot from beyond the arc, making 22-of-56 attempts through the first two games. Richmond was challenged in its opener against a far inferior team and is sure to get tested here. Take the points.
8-3-2 IN LAST 13 CBB PICKS | +468
ARIZONA -30.5
SAN JOSE ST. @ ARIZONA | 11/14 | 8:00 PM EST
1:03 PM
This is a monster number, but look for the Arizona Wildcats to cover it. The Cats have three highly touted freshmen who are each shooting over 50 percent from the field. As a team Arizona is shooting 55 percent. The Cats have a lot of size and athleticism that will dominate the boards. Arizona also has forced a ton of turnovers through its first two games. Meanwhile the Spartans have just nine wins since the start of the 2017-18 season and will most likely finish last in their conference. Arizona covers.
8-3-2 IN LAST 13 CBB PICKS | +468
SAN JOSE -108
SAN JOSE @ ANAHEIM | 11/14 | 10:00 PM EST
12:53 PM
Right now these two teams are playing completely different hockey. The Sharks have shaken off a rough start and have now won four straight while the Ducks are trending in the opposite direction: 0-2-2 their last four overall. The Sharks are starting to find some offense after managing two goals or fewer in nine of their first 15 games. The Sharks own the best penalty kill in the NHL while the Ducks are 30th in the league on power play. Sharks money line (-108) is the play.
10-6-1 IN LAST 17 NHL PICKS | +377
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Michael Rusk
UNDER 141
VANDERBILT @ RICHMOND | 11/14 | 7:00 PM EST
4:23 PM
Richmond is coming off a 198-point total, cashing the Over by more than 50 points. That was an anomaly, and the Spiders quickly will realize Vanderbilt uses a large portion of time on the shot clock to construct plays. This total simply is way too high for two teams that dictate their games with defense.
3-1 IN LAST 4 CBB PICKS | +190
SAN JOSE ST. +30.5
SAN JOSE ST. @ ARIZONA | 11/14 | 8:00 PM EST
4:14 PM
Arizona enters this matchup having covered its first two contests with 39- and 21-point victories, respectively. The very overvalued Wildcat host a San Jose State team that beat Hofstra earlier this month as an 18-point underdog. Arizona should win this contest comfortably, but nowhere near the 30-point mark.
3-1-1 IN LAST 5 CBB ATS PICKS | +191
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allan desrosiers
10 browns
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allan desrosiers
7 siena
7 florida
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ats
4 steelers
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John Ryan
7* Steelers
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Dave Essler
* CFB (3*) Total of the Year *
N.Carolina/Pitt Under 50.5
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