Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 11/7/19
TNF - Chargers at Raiders
Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
For the first time this season, the Chargers (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) are coming off consecutive victories after dominating the Packers, 26-11 as four-point home underdogs. Although Los Angeles didn’t score its first touchdown until the second half, the Chargers owned a 9-0 halftime lead and were aided by a pair of Melvin Gordon short touchdown runs to build a commanding 26-3 advantage.
The Chargers picked up their first home win since a Week 1 overtime triumph over the Colts as L.A.’s defense stepped up by holding Green Bay to 13 first downs and 184 total yards. The Lightning Bolts posted 442 yards of offense, its highest output since a Week 2 loss at Detroit when Los Angeles racked up 424 yards offensively in spite of scoring only 10 points. Philip Rivers was held without a touchdown pass for the first time in four games, but Gordon busted out with 80 yards rushing after putting up 112 yards in the previous four contests combined.
The Raiders (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) climbed back to the .500 mark after holding off the Lions, 31-24 at the Coliseum last Sunday. Rookie Josh Jacobs found the end zone twice in the first half, while quarterback Derek Carr hit Hunter Renfrow on the go-ahead touchdown for Oakland with two minutes remaining in regulation. Detroit had an opportunity to tie the game in the final seconds with four and goal at the Oakland 1-yard line, but Matthew Stafford’s pass was incomplete and the Raiders grabbed their first home victory since Week 1 against Denver.
Jacobs has topped the 120-yard rushing mark for the third time in four games, while the Raiders are 3-0 when he scores a touchdown (he has actually scored twice in all three of those wins). Carr has been intercepted only once in the last five games, leading the Raiders to at least 24 points or more in five consecutive contests. The Raiders are allowing the most passing yards per game by averaging nearly 300 a contest, as Stafford and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers each threw for over 400 yards in two of the past three weeks.
SERIES HISTORY
It’s been all Chargers the last two seasons against their rivals from the East Bay as Los Angeles is 4-0 both straight up and against the spread. Oakland actually posted a 4-0 mark against the Lightning Bolts from 2015-2016, which included three wins by three points each. The Chargers broke that four-game skid with a 17-16 triumph in Oakland in October 2017, followed by a 30-10 rout in the season finale at home.
In Jon Gruden’s return to the Raiders’ sidelines last season, the Raiders couldn’t figure out the Chargers in a pair of double-digit defeats that each finished ‘under’ the total. The Bolts cruised past the Raiders at home, 26-10 as five-point favorites in Week 5 of 2018, led by 339 yards passing and two touchdown passes by Rivers. Los Angeles took care of Oakland at the Black Hole in the next meeting five weeks later, 20-6 as 10 ½-point favorites, highlighted by two touchdown tosses from Rivers, including a 66-yard scoring play to Gordon.
TWO MUCH?
The Raiders have won back-to-back games only once since Gruden came back to Oakland in 2018 and that was earlier this season in victories over the Colts and Bears. Both came as an underdog and both came away from the Coliseum, as Oakland is 0-4 since last season off a home win. The Chargers are fresh off their first two-game winning streak of the season, while playing only their second division opponent of 2019 after losing to Denver back in Week 5.
TRUST THE CHALK?
The Chargers won their last two games in the underdog role against the Bears and Packers, but Anthony Lynn’s squad has covered only once when laying points this season, coming at Miami in Week 4 as 15-point favorites. Thursday night favorites this season have cashed twice in nine opportunities, including a pair of straight up wins/non-covers the last two weeks with the Vikings and 49ers as double-digit chalk not covering the spread in victories. The only road favorite to win and cover on Thursday night this season did so in a battle of AFC West teams in Week 7 when the Chiefs blew out the Broncos, 30-3.
TOTAL TALK
The 2019 Thursday Night Football matchup has had solid back-and-forth total results with the ‘under’ holding a 5-4 record and that includes the Week 1 outcome between the Packers and Bears.
Of the nine games, six of them were divisional matchups and the ‘under’ has produced a 4-2 record in those contests but the two ‘over’ tickets did occur on the West Coast.
Will that trend continue this week at RingCentral Coliseum from Oakland? Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this total.
“Part of my handicapping philosophy is that results usually find a way to balance out in the long run and we saw that firsthand last Sunday when the home teams finally showed up. Sticking with that thought and this divisional matchup, we’re starting to see an uptick in totals for these games. The ‘under’ went 19-10 (66%) in divisional matchups through the first six weeks of the season but the ‘over’ has posted a 7-3 (70%) mark over the previous three weekends,” said David.
Backing the ‘over’ in this game could be a reach for some, especially when you look at the recent encounters. The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight games between the Chargers and Raiders, all of them clear-cut winners too with a combined score of 34 PPG.
David offered up his lean, “It’s a bit of a head-scratcher to see a line get juiced up from 47 ½ to 49 when the Chargers have been the best ‘under’ team (7-2) in the NFL. Los Angeles certainly has the ability to move the chains but its inability to cash in the red zone is beyond frustrating. This season, the Bolts have 17 field goals and 18 touchdowns, not a good ratio for ‘over’ tickets.”
“While that production certainly could make you hesitant to back them or the high side, we did see the Chargers put up 33 and 29 points in two road games played in the primetime slots last season. I’m going to buy L.A. and its sporadic offense against a suspect Raiders of the defense. If they put up sixes instead of threes, the Team Total Over (24) will connect easily.”
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with his analysis on the improvement on the offensive side of the ball for the Silver and Black, “The offense for the Raiders has been exceptional with a great rebound season from Carr who is 6th in QB Rating in the NFL. Oakland is 6th in passing yards per attempt, but the scoring has been middle-of-the-pack, averaging just below 23 points per game and sitting 20th in yards per point as there have been some red zone issues and a negative turnover differential.”
The upcoming schedules for these teams should be telling ahead according to Nelson, “The Chargers are on the road three of the next four weeks and the next two home games are against the Chiefs and the Vikings as the playoff opportunity for this team isn’t likely. This team remains capable of high-level performances and a late season run shouldn’t be ruled out while this team could be an attractive underdog in many upcoming games.”
On the flip side, if things break right for the Raiders, Nelson notes this could be a Wild Card team, “If Oakland can win this week they draw the Bengals and Jets the next two weeks before heading to Kansas City. If Oakland wins the games they are favored in, 10-6 is possible which should be enough in most scenarios for a playoff spot in the AFC.”
PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook
Total Completions – Philip Rivers (LAC)
Over 23 ½ (-110)
Under 23 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Philip Rivers (LAC)
Over 1 ½ (-180)
Under 1 ½ (+150)
Total Rushing Yards – Melvin Gordon (LAC)
Over 60 ½ (-110)
Under 60 ½ (-110)
Will Melvin Gordon (LAC) Score a Touchdown?
Yes -125
No +105
Total Gross Passing Yards – Derek Carr (OAK)
Over 259 ½ (-110)
Under 259 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Derek Carr (OAK)
Over 1 ½ (-140)
Under 1 ½ (+120)
Total Rushing Yards – Josh Jacobs (OAK)
Over 84 ½ (-110)
Under 84 ½ (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
The Raiders opened as a one-point home favorite at the Westgate Superbook on Sunday evening, but the Chargers were flipped to a 1 ½-point favorite by Monday afternoon. Los Angeles has settled at that number for most of the week, while the total has moved up from 47 ½ to 49. The first half line is currently Los Angeles -½ (+105), while the total sits at 23 ½ (Over -120).
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 10
Thursday, November 7
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LA CHARGERS (4 - 5) at OAKLAND (4 - 4) - 11/7/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 54-85 ATS (-39.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 40-82 ATS (-50.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 4-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Week 10
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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 7
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Oakland's last 16 games at home
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
LA Chargers is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
LA Chargers is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
LA Chargers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
NFL
Dunkel
Week 10
Thursday, November 7
LA Chargers @ Oakland
Game 107-108
November 7, 2019 @ 8:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
134.505
Oakland
130.969
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 3 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
Pick
48
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
Over
Chargers (4-5) @ Raiders (4-4)— Chargers won last two games after a 2-5 start; they outrushed Green Bay 159-45 LW, first time since Week 2 they ran for 100+ yards. Bolts held last two foes (Chi-GB) to two TD’s on 19 drives; they split four road games TY, seven of their last eight games stayed under the total. Under Lynn, LA is 4-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points, 0-2-1 TY. Oakland covered four of last five games, won two of three SU at home; four of their last five games went over. Raiders allowed 24+ points in six of its last seven games. Chargers won last four series games, last three by combined score of 76-26; they won 17-16/20-6 in last two visits to Oakland.