Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 10/20/19
Week 7
Chiefs (4-2) @ Broncos (2-4)— KC lost its last two games, Denver won its last two, so a pivotal game here in AFC West. In their first four games, Chiefs scored 15 TD’s on 38 drives; in their last two games, four TD’s on 18 drives. How bad is Mahomes’ ankle? KC is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games as a road favorite, 2-1 this year- they’ve been outscored 66-58 inn 2nd half of games. Denver hasn’t allowed an offensive TD in its last two games; Chargers’ TD in Week 5 was on a punt return. Broncos are 8-4 ATS in last dozen games as a home underdog; their two SU home losses this year both came on last-second FG’s. Chiefs won last seven series games, winning last four visits to Denver, by 16-3-3-4 points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 4-3 ATS.
Cardinals (2-3-1) @ Giants (2-4)— Giants’ DC Bettcher faces his old team (2015-17) here; Giants lost their last two games by 18-21 points- they scored 17 or fewer points in all four losses, are 1-3-1 ATS in last five games as a home favorite, 1-0 TY. Arizona won its last two games by total of four points after an 0-3-1 start; Cardinals converted 13 of last 26 third down plays, but have only one takeaway in their last five games (-2). Arizona is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog, 2-0 TY. Home side lost four of last five series games, with Arizona winning 24-17/25-14 in last two visits here. NFC West teams are 8-0 ATS in non-divisional road games; NFC East teams are 4-12 ATS outside their division.
Texans (4-2) @ Colts (3-2)— Houston scored 84 points in winning its last two games, racking up 66 first downs, running ball for 358 yards; four of their last five games stayed under the total. Texans covered six of last seven games as a road underdog (3-0 TY). Colts are 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 post-bye games; they’re 3-2 SU this year, allowing 30-31 points in their losses- the team that led at halftime won all five Indy games. Colts are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year; they’re 10-7-1 ATS in last 18 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Indy won four of last five series games; Texans won three of last four visits to Indy. Divisional home favorites are 5-13 ATS in NFL games this year.
Dolphins (0-5) @ Bills (4-1)— Fitzpatrick gets nod at QB here after rallying Miami back from down 17-3 to almost beat the Redskins LW; Dolphins are 0-5 SU, losing their only road game 31-6 in Dallas. Miami hasn’t gained more than 283 TY in any game this year; they’re 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog. Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS in last four post-bye games; under McDermott, they’re 5-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. Bills are 4-1 with only one win by more than 7 points; they allowed 17 or fewer points in all four wins- all five of their games stayed under total. Buffalo won eight of last 12 series games; four of last six were decided by 6 or fewer points. Dolphins lost five of last six visits here, with the one win in OT three years ago.
Vikings (4-2) @ Lions (2-2-1)— Minnesota scored 28+ points in its four wins, was held to 16-6 in its losses; they gained 490-447 TY the last two weeks. Vikings covered once in last five games where spread was 3 or fewer points- under Zimmer, they’re 11-6 ATS as a road favorite. Detroit is 2-2-1 despite a +6 turnover ratio; kicking five FG’s with only one TD cost them at Lambeau Monday nite; all five of their games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Lions are 7-14-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home underdog, but are 2-0 this year; they’re 5-3 in last eight games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Minnesota won last three series games, sweeping Lions 24-9/27-9 in LY’s games; Vikings won three of last four visits to Ford Field, winning last two, 30-23/27-9.
Raiders (3-2) @ Packers (5-1)— Short week for Green Bay after they snuck past Detroit Monday; Packers allowed 80 points in last three games after giving up 35 in first three- they’re 12-9-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite, 12-8-1 in last 21 games vs AFC teams. Oakland scored 55 points in winning its last two games; they were held to 10-14 points in their two losses. Raiders are 4-13-1 in last 18 games as a road dog, 1-1 TY- they’re 4-12-2 in last 18 games vs NFC foes. Green Bay won last seven meetings; Raiders lost last four trips to Lambeau, last three by 28+. NFC North home favorites are 4-1 ATS outside their division; AFC West teams are 7-10 ATS, 1-2 as road underdogs. Oakland is 5-11 ATS in last 16 post-bye games.
Jaguars (2-4) @ Bengals (0-6)— Jaguars trading Ramsey shouldn’t hurt them; he wasn’t playing anyway. QB Minshew had his worst game as a pro LW; Jags gained only 226 TY vs Saints, after racking up 455-507 TY the two games before that- they’re 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a favorite. Winless Bengals gave up 535 RY the last two weeks; they’ll get more of same here from Jax- three of their last four games stayed under. Four of Cincy’s six losses were by 6 or fewer points- they’re 7-3 ATS in last ten games asa a home underdog. Bengals won four of last five series games; Jaguars lost 21-19/33-23 in last two visits here. AFC South favorites are 2-3 ATS outside the division; AFC North teams are 6-9 ATS, 0-7 at home.
Rams (3-3) @ Falcons (1-5)— Rams return to scene of February’s Super Bowl loss; LA lost last three games overall, added CB Fowler Tuesday while trading Peters- only one of four DB’s who started in Week 4 is still an active Ram. LA gained 157 TY LW, after racking up 518-477 in previous two games. Atlanta lost its last four games, so lot of urgency on both sides here- they allowed 765 PY the last two weeks. Falcons scored 65 points last two weeks, but still lost both games. Atlanta won last five series games, with last meeting 26-13 in ’17 playoffs; Rams lost last five visits here, with last win in ’01. NFC West teams are 8-0 ATS in non-divisional road games; NFC South home teams are 3-5 ATS outside their division.
49ers (5-0) @ Redskins (1-5)— Washington fired Mike/Kyle Shanahan after the 2013 season; am guessing they’ll pay for that today, with red-hot 49ers in town. SF allowed total of 10 points in last two games, giving up one offensive TD on 22 drives; Bengals are only team to gain 300+ TY vs SF, and they lost 41-17 to the Niners. Redskins won Callahan’s first game as interim coach LW but it was 17-16 over a horrible Miami team; Washington ran ball 33 times LW, after running it for average of 17.6 in their first five games. 49ers won four of last five series games, splitting last four visits here; NFC West teams are 8-0 ATS in non-divisional road games; NFC East teams are 4-12 ATS outside their division.
Chargers (2-4) @ Titans (2-4)— Tennessee is starting Taneyhill (42-46 as starter in Miami) at QB after getting blanked 16-0 in Denver; Titans lost four of last five games, scoring one TD on their last 25 drives- under Vrabel, they’re 1-4 ATS as home favorites, losing their two home games 19-17/14-7 TY. Chargers fell behind 14-0 after 10:25 LW, 14-0 after 9:49 the week before; LA ran the ball for only 54.8 ypg the last four weeks— will they feed Gordon the ball more here? Last five Tennessee games stayed under the total. Chargers won 11 of last 12 series games, winning three of four trips to Nashville; Bolts beat Tennessee 20-19 in London LY. AFC West teams are 7-10 ATS outside the division; AFC South home teams are 2-5 ATS.
Ravens (4-2) @ Seahawks (5-1)— Jackson is 10-3 as an NFL starter. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in last five games- their last three wins are by 6 or fewer points. Baltimore is 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog; they allowed 33-40 points in their two losses, an average of 16.8 in their wins; they allowed 37.8 RY/game in wins, 166.5 in losses- can Seattle run ball here? Seahawks are 5-1 with four wins by four or fewer points; they’re 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, with home wins this year, by 1-1 points and a loss to the Bridgewater-led Saints. Home side won four of last five series games; Ravens lost 27-6/22-17 in last two visits here. AFC North road underdogs are 4-2 ATS outside the division; NFC West home favorites are 1-5.
Saints (5-1) @ Bears (3-2)— Trubisky is back under center for Chicago after Bears got whacked in London, with Daniel at QB; Chicago allowed 14-15-6 points in its three wins- they’ve run ball for only 68 ypg in their last three games. Under Nagy, Bears are 6-1 ATS laying points at home. Chicago is 4-12-1 ATS in last 17 post-bye games, 0-5 in last five. New Orleans is 4-0 with Bridgwater at QB, giving up only 71.1 rushing ypg the last three games; they held last three foes under 260 TY. Saints are 5-1 SU, with all five wins by 7 or fewer points; they’re 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road dog, 2-1 TY. Saints won last four series games, all by 8+ points; Chicago’s last series win was in ’08. NO won its last two trips to the Windy City.
Eagles (3-3) @ Cowboys (2-3)— Cowboys lost last three games (outscored 47-9 in first half) after a 3-0 start; Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight pre-bye games- they scored only 26 points in last seven red zone drives. Cowboys are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite; they scored 31+ points in their wins, 18.7 ppg in their losses. Philly allowed 24+ points in five of six game; only team they held under 24 started their #3 QB, who they later cut; Eagles allowed 310+ PY in four of six games- Cousins averaged 10.8 yards/pass attempt against them LW. Under Pederson, Iggles are 7-8 ATS as road underdogs. Dallas won last three series games, by 6-7-6 points; Eagles won four of last six visits here, losing 29-23 in OT LY.
Patriots (6-0) @ Jets (1-4)— Darnold came back from his bout with mono and revitalized the Jets LW, throwing for 326 yards vs Dallas after they averaged 113.5 PY in first four games. Gang Green is still averaging only 64 rushing ypg. Jets are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games as a home underdog. New England won 14 of last 16 series games, winning six of last eight visits here; Patriots have allowed only 8 ppg this year; their TO margin is +9- they scored five TD’s already on defense/special teams. Only one of NE’s six wins was by fewer than 16 points. Patriots are 16-10 ATS in last 26 games as road favorites; they held four of last five opponents to 220 or fewer TY. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 4-3 ATS.
NFL Week 7 opening odds and early moves: Who will bettors trust in Eagles-Cowboys?
Patrick Everson
The NFL steams ahead to Week 7, which features an NFC East clash among two teams trying to figure out which one wants this division. We check in on the opening odds and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DALLAS COWBOYS (-3)
Dallas looked great in the first three weeks, albeit against lightweight competition, but has since dropped three in a row. In Week 6, the Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS) faced another lightweight in the New York Jets, yet stunningly trailed 21-6 at halftime. Dak Prescott & Co. rallied before falling short 24-22 as 7-point road favorites.
Philadelphia saw its modest two-game SU and ATS win streak halted in Week 6. The Eagles (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) went to Minnesota as 3.5 point underdogs and fell behind 24-3 midway through the second quarter, rallied to within 24-20 in the third, but ultimately lost 38-20.
The line stayed at the opener of Cowboys -3 (even) through Sunday evening.
“Both teams struggled today,” Murray said late Sunday night. “Dallas is just not the same team, with the injuries on its offensive line. Action should be very split.”
And the game will have a few more hours to be bet into, as it’s the Sunday night contest.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-3.5)
New Orleans lost Drew Brees to a thumb injury in a Week 2 road setback to the Rams, but hasn’t lost a game since then, going 4-0 SU and ATS behind Teddy Bridgewater and a sturdy defense. The Saints (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) stumped Jacksonville 13-6 as 2.5-point road ‘dogs in Week 6.
Chicago should come in well-rested after a Week 6 bye, following a Week 5 London trip. That excursion didn’t go well at all, with the Bears (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) losing to Oakland 24-21 laying 6.5 points.
“We opened Bears -3.5, and it has since been pushed up to -4,” Murray said. “This should be highest-volume game of the week, besides the Sunday night game. The Bears are a super public team, but there will be Saints support as well.”
HOUSTON TEXANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (PICK)
It’s a battle between teams that went on the road and beat Kansas City over the past two weeks, with Houston the latest victor. The Texans (4-2 SU and ATS) went to Arrowhead Stadium as 3.5-point pups, fell behind 17-3, then came back to post a 31-24 outright win.
Meanwhile, Indianapolis got its bye week after springing a big upset at Arrowhead. The Colts (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS), who got a jolt late in preseason when Andrew Luck retired, were 10.5-point Week 5 ‘dogs against Kansas City, but stunningly notched a 19-13 victory.
“The line is now up to -1.5 on the Colts,” Murray said. “Houston has been a great road team in recent years, but the Colts are playing well and getting healthy off their bye week.”
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-4)
After an unexpected Week 3 loss to Drew Brees-less New Orleans, Seattle rebounded strong with three straight wins. In Week 6, the Seahawks (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) went off as 1-point ‘dogs at Cleveland, rallied from a 20-6 second-quarter deficit and snared a 32-28 victory.
Baltimore is 4-2 SU, but hasn’t covered the number since Week 1, dropping five in a row to stand 1-5 ATS. The Ravens gave up a late touchdown in Sunday’s 23-17 home win over Cincinnati, failing to cash as 10.5-point favorites.
“The Ravens have made a habit of beating up bad teams. And Seattle just keeps winning,” Murray said. “There should be good two-way action in this game.”
Early signs pointed to just that, as the Seahawks dipped to -3.5 a minute after the number went up, then went back to -4 a minute later.
Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 7 odds: Play it cool and catch a better spread on the Colts
Jason Logan
With all the attention on the Houston Texans, bettors may forget the Indianapolis Colts are also coming off a win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.
Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.
After a few weeks featuring some stranger dead numbers, the Week 7 board is littered with lines sitting around the key pointspread digits. Getting the extra half point up or down can be huge, as the numbers get tighter near the midway mark of the schedule.
SPREAD TO BET NOW: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+3) AT DALLAS COWBOYS
Both the Cowboys and Eagles took “L’s” on the weekend, but Dallas dropping a game to the then-winless Jets holds a lot more swing with bettors than Philadelphia falling flat to the Vikings.
The line opened with the host as a field-goal favorite, but early money pushed that down as low as -2.5 at some books, while most just adjusted their vig on the Cowboys. Dallas -3 is floating around out there between EVEN money and +105, as bookies try to entice some action on America’s Team.
Both teams have injuries piling up, but the Cowboys have big names landing on the report this week, including top WR Amari Cooper, who joins starting lineman Tyron Smith and La’el Collins. Those bodies were missed in the loss to the Jets Sunday and their status for Week 7 will change the spread and total.
This is projected to be the most heavily-bet game of Week 7, with over 90 percent of that money coming in on Sunday. If you like the Eagles in this divisional showdown Sunday night, you may want to grab Philly as a field-goal pup now – based on what we’re seeing with the juice.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: HOUSTON TEXANS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-1, 47.5)
The Texans are the talk of the league after a thrilling come-from-behind win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, beating the Chiefs 31-24. Now, Houston stays on the highway for an important AFC South showcase in Indianapolis, taking on a Colts team which also went to K.C. and stole a road win in Week 5.
Indianapolis beat the Chiefs 19-13 before enjoying a much-need bye week last Sunday. Oddsmakers sent out the Colts as high as -2 but money on the Texans has slimmed this spread to Indy -1. The time off allowed the Colts to get healthy, especially skill players WR T.Y. Hilton and RB Marlon Mack who have been battling through ailments, but also pushes them out of the goldfish-like memory of the betting public.
Houston, on the other hand, is front and center in the minds of bettors with a sexy high-powered offense totaling 84 points the past two games. If you’re leaning with Indianapolis in this divisional game, wait and see if the line keeps trending toward the Texans. You may get a pick or better with the Colts.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT DETRIOT LIONS OVER 45
The Vikings were probably the most impressive offense in Week 6, showing that they can not only run the ball down your throat, but they’ll also burn your butt with the pass game. Kirk Cousins finally earned a paycheck with 333 yards and four passing touchdowns in a 38-20 home win over Philadelphia.
Minnesota marches that momentum into Motown, where the Detroit Lions are sour off a road loss at Green Bay Monday night. While they only managed 22 points against the Cheeseheads, the Lions have put up some large scores in 2019, including a 34-30 loss in their last game inside Ford Field.
This total opened as low as 44 and is starting to climb, with some books already up to 46 points. If you expect plenty of points from these NFC North foes, get on the Over now – with most books still dealing 45 or 45.5.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS OVER 41.5
It’s a first-versus-worst battle in the NFC when the undefeated 49ers cross the country to play the 1-5 Redskins. The Niners are one of the better two-way teams in the league right now, allowing only 12.8 points per game, while Washington is trapped in QB hell and putting up just 15 points per outing.
It’s no surprise this Over/Under is sinking like a stone, falling from 42.5 to 41 points as of Tuesday morning. There’s a lot pushing the total down: it's a second straight road game for the 49ers, a 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. PT) start time in D.C., the No. 2 ranked defense in yards and points allowed, and a home side that is dedicated to the run without a true No. 1 QB, and that managed only 17 points against a Dolphins team allowing 36 points against per game. Sprinkle in some possible rain for FedExField, and there’s no reason why this number can’t go sub-40 before Sunday.
But if you’re among the contrarians who see value in the Over for this game - I guess, putting all your faith in San Francisco to score 40-plus points - wait it out because this number should continue to crash throughout the week.
by: Josh Inglis
BOUNCE-BACK SPOT, GOFF
Early in the week, we like to find a player or team that nobody is saying a good word about and try to find some value in betting with them. This week, that player is Jared Goff. In Week 6 versus the San Francisco 49ers, the L.A. Rams QB finished with a sub-century 78 years passing and his leading receiver was his No. 2 tight end. Things have never been this bad for Goff, but maybe brighter days are ahead.
With everyone having Dory memories these days (remember the cute little cartoon fish with brain damage?), it’s almost easy to forget that Goff had over 900 yards in Weeks 4 and 5 combined even though his team has failed to win since Week 3 in Cleveland.
Week 7 presents a perfect matchup for the former first-overall pick as the Rams will travel indoors to face the Atlanta Falcons’ second-worst DVOA pass defense. The Dirty Birds are allowing over 330 yards passing a game to opposing QBs over their last three and have been torched with 11 passing TDs to zero interceptions over that same span.
We’re getting on Goff for a bounce back. With most prop markets not open yet, we will be looking at his total yards and Over 1.5 TDs, hitting the Over on any number below 280 passing yards and an Over 1.5 TD odds of -130 or better.
BARKING UP THE RIGHT TREE
The story of the 2019 NFL betting season is the rate in which road underdogs are hitting. Through six weeks of action, road pups are an incredible 41-20-1 ATS (67.2 percent) while underdogs in divisional matchups are 18-10 (64.2 percent).
This week, eight of the 14 games have traveling underdogs and there are six divisional games with half of them having road underdogs — Houston (+1) at Indianapolis, Miami (+17) at New England and Philadelphia (+3) at Dallas. Of those three, we like Houston best as cheering for Miami in back-to-back weeks is criminal and Dallas is going to be a tough place to play after getting embarrassed by the Jets last week.
The Texans and Deshaun Watson are playing some of their best football, averaging 44 points a game in their last two. The Colts allowed the Raiders to put up 31 points in their last home game and rank in the bottom-five in team DVOA defense (22nd pass/28th rush). The Colts may be coming out of their bye, but their defense is still underperforming and will face arguably the best offense in the league right now.
Watson will look to move to 2-0 at Lucas Oil Stadium and 4-0 ATS on the road this year. We are jumping on Houston at +1 (opened at +2.5) and riding that road dog trend.
ALTERNATIVE TOTALS
Maybe you want to see some points and want some plus-money odds on totals. That’s where alternative lines can be your friend.
The Baltimore Ravens are averaging a league-best 37.7 points on the road this year which includes 4.7 touchdowns a game. They will square-off with MVP candidate Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, who are no slouch offensively, averaging 3.7 touchdowns a game for nearly 30 points in their last three while leading the league in first-half points over that same time frame.
With both offenses rolling we should see some scoreboard counting as Baltimore’s defense sits outside the Top 20 in both DVOA pass and rush and the Seahawks are a middle-of-the-pack defensive group. Grab the alternative total of 60 and tap on the Over (+250).
PRIMETIME SIX-POINT TEASER
Chiefs at Broncos: The Chiefs do not have a lot of time this week to set the ship straight as they head to Denver for the Thursday nighter. Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in its last three but has won all three of its road games this year. The Broncos are playing much better after picking up their first win two weeks ago and winning again last week, but they have not beaten the Chiefs in seven-straight contests. Kansas City +3
Eagles at Cowboys: If you don’t think Dallas comes out with something to prove after getting decapitated by Sam Darnold and the Jets last week, then you are fooling yourself. However, Dak Prescott has failed to throw for 300 yards and/or three touchdowns in eight games without Amari Cooper since last year, and Cooper is in danger of missing Sunday night’s game. Philadelphia +9
Patriots at Jets: Sam Darnold & Co. got their mojo back last week and managed to score three, first-half touchdowns against the Cowboys’ 25th-ranked weighted DVOA defense. Things won’t be easy for the Jets QB versus the Pats, especially since Tom Brady’s offense is averaging 35 points when facing a double-digit spread. New England -4
ROAD CHARGERS
The Los Angeles Chargers must be having trouble comprehending that the Oakland Raiders are more than one game ahead of them in the AFC West standings. Averaging 20 points a game this year isn’t helping the cause, but neither are all the injuries.
Philip Rivers is in the middle of a stretch where he has to face five Top-10 defenses versus quarterbacks, and has already thrown four interceptions to two of those teams. The Tennessee Titans offense is a mess, but their defense has been a Top-5 unit in points against and opponent’s third-down conversion percentage.
With their recent offensive struggles combined with the facing a Titans' defense at home in a must-win game, we are backing the Chargers’ team total Under 19.5.
by: Josh Inglis
DOWN JONES: STOCK SLIPPING
The Arizona Cardinals rank third-last in passing yards allowed through six weeks but will be getting some help Sunday in the form of eight-time All-Pro corner Patrick Peterson, who is finished serving his six-game suspension.
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has seen his passing yards decreased in each of his first four NFL starts as perhaps teams are adjusting to the rookie and the injuries to key skilled players take their toll.
Either way, his stock is pointing in the wrong direction. To make things worse, Jones’ No.1 receiver Sterling Shepard will likely be out after dealing with his second concussion this year and is still in the league’s protocol. Look for the Giants to work the middle of the field with Golden Tate and Evan Engram as the outside lacks talent and will see Peterson in coverage.
Engram will get his yards as the Cardinals are allowing a league-worst 99.7 yards to TEs this year. But after that, we don’t see Jones doing much damage. With Arizona being the No. 1 matchup for fantasy QBs, we may be getting an inflated number for Jones’ passing yards total. We are playing the Under on 255.5 yards.
GET OVER IT
Yesterday, we wrote about backing the Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Goff in a bounce-back spot and today we’re staying on the Rams and Atlanta Falcons game as we look at two teams that are giving up over 620 yards passing combined over the last three weeks.
With the week’s highest total at a robust 54.5 points, both teams will have to keep their punters on the sideline for this game to hit 55. The Rams defense has been doing its best to keep opponents’ drives alive, allowing third-down conversions at a 47.5-percent rate and are tied for second-to-last in penalties allowed. The Falcons have been even worse, ranked last in the league in opponents’ third-down conversion rate at 57 percent.
Pushing this lean for us is the fact that both teams have been scoring touchdowns lately when inside the 20-yard line. The Birds are getting six points on two-thirds of their red-zone trips over the last three weeks while the Rams sit at 64 percent. We are backing the Over 54.5.
THE COLEMAN RULE
The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 thanks in part to a defense that ranks first in passing yards per game, tops in rushing TDs allowed, and second in yards per game, passer rating against, first-downs per game, and points per game. This defense has also been helped by a Niners’ rushing attack averaging 180 yards game and leads the league in rushes per game.
Kyle Shanahan’s running back committee has been a pretty even timeshare in Weeks 1 through 5, but Telvin Coleman played 55 percent of the snaps last week which was the single most snaps played by a 49ers running back this year.
Coleman managed 20 touches in his second game back from injury last week and saw all of San Francisco's red-zone looks, for five carries and one target with a score. That’s great news for Coleman backers as the 49ers are also averaging the second-most rushing TDs per game.
We are taking Coleman’s anytime TD as that 49ers defense and run game will dominate the Washington Redskins, who are probably still celebrating their Week 6 win over the Dolphins.
NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 7:
Road Teams: 56-35-1 ATS
Home Teams: 35-56-1 ATS
Favorites: 35-56-1 ATS
Underdogs: 56-35-1 ATS
Home Faves: 20-41-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 15-15 ATS
Road Faves: 15-15 ATS
Road Dogs: 41-20-1 ATS
O/U: 43-49
NFL's Top ATS Teams:
t1. 'Niners 4-1 ATS
t1. Bills 4-1 ATS
t1. Lions 4-1 ATS
4. Colts 3-1-1 ATS
t5. Patriots, Packers, Saints, Panthers, Texans, Vikings, Rams, Cardinals and Steelers tied at 4-2 ATS
NFL's Worst ATS Teams:
t30. Redskins 1-5 ATS
t30. Falcons 1-5 ATS
t30. Ravens 1-5 ATS
t28. Dolphins 1-4 ATS
t28. Chargers 1-4-1 ATS
t23. Titans, Buccaneers, Giants, Browns and Eagles tied at 2-4 ATS
NFL Week 7 cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson
New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara, even more important during Drew Brees' absence, won't play Sunday at Chicago. The Saints are now 4-point underdogs in a key NFC clash at Soldier Field.
NFL Week 7 has a dozen Sunday games, followed by a Monday nighter in the shadow of the Big Apple. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
INJURY IMPACT
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The most noteworthy injury news emerging from Friday was that running back Alvin Kamara (knee, ankle) will not play Sunday at Chicago. “We moved a full point on this one, and dropped the total by 2 points,” Wilkinson said. The Saints opened +4, quickly tightened to +3, then rose to +4 by Friday afternoon, mostly on the Kamara update. The total moved from 39 early in the week to 37 Friday.
CHICAGO BEARS: Quarterback Mitch Trubisky missed Chicago’s Week 5 loss to Oakland, in a game played in London. But after a Week 6 bye, there’s a chance Trubisky returns Sunday from a separated shoulder/slight torn labrum. He’s listed as questionable at home against New Orleans. “It looks like he’s gonna play now,” Wilkinson said, noting that was part of the calculus – along with the Saints’ Kamara being out – in going from Bears -3.5 to -4 Friday.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: Wideout Davante Adams (toe) is out for the second straight game, as he won’t play at home Sunday against Oakland. “Green Bay picked up running back Ryan Grant recently, so we didn’t adjust the line based off the Adams injury. However, the line has dropped 2 full points this week, to Packers -4.5.” Adams’ absence didn’t impact the total, either, as it remained at 47, where it’s been since Tuesday, after opening at 46.5.
DALLAS COWBOYS: Wideout Amari Cooper (ankle, quad) is questionable for the Sunday night showdown against the visiting Eagles. But that didn’t move the needle Friday at The SuperBook, where the line remained Dallas -2.5, with a total of 49.
NEW YORK GIANTS: Running back Saquon Barkley (ankle) missed three games, but he wasn’t even on Friday’s injury report, so he is fully expected to play Sunday against the visiting Cardinals. “We moved from Giants -2.5 to -3 on the Barkley news.”
LOS ANGELES RAMS: Todd Gurley (quad) is another running back set to return, after missing last week’s home loss to the 49ers. “No move for Gurley, because we already expected it.” The Rams are 3-point favorites at Atlanta, with a total of 55.
Weather Watch
BALTIMORE AT SEATTLE: There’s a 66 percent chance of rain for this Sunday showdown. “We always keep rain in mind when there’s a game in Seattle, so this total is lower than it would be somewhere else,” Wilkinson said of a number that opened at 49.5, peaked at 50.5, then dropped 2 points to 48.5. “It would be more than 50 on a dry field.”
SAN FRANCISCO AT WASHINGTON: The D.C. area is highly likely to see Sunday showers, with an 87 percent chance of rain at FedEx Field. “The total dropped 2.5 points to 40.5 due to the weather.” The spread remained at 49ers -9.5. “It possibly could’ve been 10 in good weather.”
ARIZONA AT NEW YORK GIANTS: There’s a 51 percent chance of rain Sunday at MetLife Stadium, but The SuperBook made no adjustments. The Giants are at -3, with a total of 50.5.
Pros vs. Joes
HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: The SuperBook opened this game at pick and moved to Colts -1.5. “The pros are on the Colts, but the Joes are betting the Texans. The Texans beat the Chiefs, so the public thinks they’re great, but that was an injured Patrick Mahomes. The sharps think the Colts at home are the better team.”
NEW ENGLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: This line bounced between 9.5 and 10 a few times within the first two hours of opening on Sunday, then settled at Patriots -9.5 all week. “Pros are betting the Jets, but the Joes are always betting the Patriots. Sam Darnold has the Jets’ offense moving, and they are looking to upset their division rival at home.”
Reverse Line Moves
HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS: Wilkinson said Pros vs. Joes contests often lead to reverse line moves, as well. That’s the case here, with more money on the Texans, but respected cash on the Colts leading The SuperBook to move the line from pick to Indy -1.5.
NEW ENGLAND AT NEW YORK JETS: It’s the same story here. Per usual, there’s more money on the Patriots, but respected money on the Jets at +10 has this line stuck at New England -9.5, rather than increasing beyond the key number.
NEW ORLEANS AT CHICAGO: Wilkinson said there’s a case to be made that this matchup falls into the category of reverse line move. “The straight bets are pretty even, but we do have more parlay money on the Saints, and the line has gone the opposite direction.”
Total Talk - Week 7
Joe Williams
We're heading to Sunday Week 7 of the National Football League regular season. Primetime games have been a bummer for 'over' bettors so far this season. The Thursday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos went well under to kick off the new week, too. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went down with a dislocated kneecap and he is supposed to miss several weeks, so keep an eye on the totals of Kansas City games going forward. With veteran backup QB Matt Moore under center, the Chiefs offense won't be nearly as effective.
2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 6 7-7 8-6 3-9-2
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 43-49 39-52-1 42-46-4
The books were well in the black for a third consecutive week even though the totals were split right down the middle at 7-7. The Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game in England hit the over, which is now 2-0 in the two International Series games this season. We'll get a week break from games in Jolly Ol' England before the Cincinnati Bengals-Los Angeles Rams meet in Wembley Stadium.
Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 7 were stifled as the under went 9-3-2 in the final 30 minutes. Simiar to the overall under (49-43) results on the season, the under holds advantages in both the first-half (52-39-1) and second-half (46-42-4).
Division Bell
We had four more divisional battles in Week 6, and all three of the divisional battles on North American soil hit the 'under', with the only over happening at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium between the Bucs and Panthers in the 26th game played in London since 2007. If you include Thursday's outcome between the Chiefs and Broncos, the under is now 20-10 (67%) in divisional games this season.
Divisional Game Results Week 6
Carolins vs. Tampa Bay (London) Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Cincinnati at Baltimore Under (47) Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 17
San Francisco at L.A. Rams Under (50) San Francisco 20, L.A. Rams 7
Detroit at Green Bay (MNF) Under (47) Green Bay 23, Detroit 22
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 7 as of Saturday morning.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati: 47 ½ to 43 ½
San Francisco at Washington: 43 to 40
L.A. Rams at Atlanta: 52 ½ to 54 ½
Philadelphia at Dallas: 47 ½ to 49 ½
Baltimore at Seattle: 50 ½ to 49
New Orleans at Chicago: 38 ½ to 37
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 7 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.
San Francisco at Washington: Under 92%
L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: Over 89%
New England at N.Y. Jets (MNF): Over 87%
Philadelphia at Dallas (SNF): Over 86%
Arizona at N.Y. Giants: Over 83%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (70 percent) in the Cincinnati-Baltimore matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in L.A. Rams-Atlanta (67 percent) battle on Sunday.
Handicapping Week 7
Week 6 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 1-3 10-19
NFC vs. NFC 2-0 11-8
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 9-6
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 14-15
Other Week 7 Action
Jacksonville at Cincinnati: This game is an interesting one to watch, as the winless Bengals have a slew of injuries in their secondary, including DBs William Jackson III (shoulder) and Dre Kirkpatrick (knee). They might get CB Darqueze Dennard (knee) back from the PUP list, but they still have issues. The Bengals have actually been middle of the road against the pass, but brutal against the run, ranking last in the NFL at 184.5 yards per game. They're allowing 426.0 total yards per game to rank 31st, too. On the flip side, the rank 11th running the ball with 127.5 yards per game. Jacksonville's offense might be able to put up some big points. They have allowed 58 points in their past two road games, both overs, so this is an interesting game to watch.
L.A. Rams at Atlanta: Former NFC West Division rivals meet in Atlanta when the Rams swoop into town to battle the Falcons. The Rams are expected to see CB Jalen Ramsey make his team debut after being acquired this week. He'll be a welcome addition with CB Aqib Talib (ribs) out indefinitely. The Rams rank sixth in the NFL in passing yards (272.5), and the Falcons are 27th in total yards allowed (388.8) and passing yards allowed (271.2), while allowing 31.0 PPG to check in 31st in the NFL. This could be another track meet under the roof.
Oakland at Green Bay: The Raiders hit the road to ball the Packers in an AFC-NFC matchup. The Raiders have hit the 'over' in all three of their games away from the Bay Area, going 2-0 in their two true road games with another over in London in Week 5 last time out. For the Packers, they'll again be without WR Davante Adams (toe), while WRs Geronimo Allison (chest) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle) are considered doubtful. The Pack are likely to have quite a few unheralded and inexperienced receivers going, which might mean more of a ground-based attack. A heavy run game means a better chance of an under.
Arizona at N.Y. Giants: The Cardinals and Giants have a line hovering around 50 for their battle between former NFC East rivals. It could be a high-scoring affair, as the Giants get a huge boost from the return of RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) and TE Evan Engram (knee). As such, the Giants offense could be fairly prolific, especially against a Cardinals defense which ranks 30th in total yards allowed (414.0), 30th in passing yards allowed (281.2) and 26th in rushing yards allowed (132.8). Arizona has scored 22.3 PPG, while allowing 28.5 PPG. Teams from the Pacific Time Zone playing in the Eastern Time Zone this season have posted an over in six of 11 occasions, and the over is 6-3 if you take the Chargers out of the equation (two unders in two games).
L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: A pair of defensive-minded clubs battle in Nashville. The Chargers and Titans have each hit the under in five straight games. Los Angeles ranks seventh in total yards allowed (321.7) and 10th in points allowed (19.7 PPG), while Tennessee ranks eighth in total yards allowed (321.8), sixth in passing yards allowed (217.3) and fifth in points allowed (15.3 PPG). However, they're a very ordinary 15th in rushing yards allowed (104.5). Watch this, as RB Melvin Gordon rushed for a career-high 196 yards against Tennessee in a 2016 meeting. The Titans will give QB Ryan Tannehill his first Tennessee start, as he replaced the ineffective QB Marcus Mariota.
Heavy Expectations
There are three games listed with spreads of nine or more points for Week 7, with one home team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 41 to 44 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half. Two of the games are divisional battles, too.
San Francisco at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET): The 49ers will be playing in their third game in the Eastern Time Zone, splitting the over/under in those games. They scored 31 points in the Week 1 game at Tampa Bay, and 41 in the Week 2 game at Cincinnati, and now they'll face a one-win Redskins side. On the flip side, the Redskins have allowed 31, 31 and 33 in their three home games, hitting the 'over' in two of those outings. As an underdog of nine or more points, the Redskins are allowing 32.5 PPG in two outings, too. One thing to note, however, is that the 49ers have hit the 'under' in each of the two games they have been favored, while hitting the under in four of their five games overall.
Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Dolphins will play in just their second road game of the season, and they hit the 'under' in that lone road trip, falling 31-6 at Dallas in Week 3. The Dolphins scored a season-high 16 points in Week 6, hitting the 'under' for the fourth consecutive game. They have scored 10, 0, 6, 10 and 16 in five games, averaging an NFL-worst 8.4 PPG. The Dolphins turn back to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, looking for a little 'Fitz-magic' against his former team. The Bills are the only team in the NFL yet to see an 'over' result, as the 'under' is a perfect 5-0, including 2-0 vs. AFC East foes. They allowed just 16 points in each of those divisional games.
New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): (See Below)
Under the Lights
Philadelphia at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football under has cashed in all seven games so far this season, including Philly's trip to Atlanta in Week 2, and a 12-10 loss by Dallas in New Orleans in Week 4. The Cowboys have played two divisional games, cashing the 'over' in each. They are averaging 33.0 PPG in those two games, while allowing 19.0 PPG. The Eagles hit the 'over' in their only NFC East tilt so far, a 32-27 win over Washington in Week 1. In their three road games the Eagles have scored 20 or more points in each game while allowing 29.7 PPG, hitting the 'over' in two of the three games.
New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Patriots are heavy favorites on the road for the Monday nighter against the Jets, who looked like a new program in a Week 6 win over Dallas with QB Sam Darnold back under center after missing a few games due to a bout with mononucleosis. These teams met in Week 3 when Luke Falk was the starting QB, and the Jets offense was blanked in New England, with the Jets scoring two defensive touchdowns in the 30-14 loss, a game which went 'over' by one point, and probably should not have. The 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 against AFC East teams, while the under is 11-5 in New York's past 16 inside the division. The under has hit in six of the past seven in this series, and four of the past five in New Jersey.
SNF - Eagles at Cowboys
Matt Blunt
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The first potential 'over' of the year on SNF came up short by the hook last week, as a missed FG by the Chargers early in that game stung, along with the fact it took three quarters for the Chargers to look like they were interested in playing football. But I guess when your home field is actually a soccer stadium, the best way to pay homage to that is to look like a soccer team and put up a big fat zero on the scoreboard for the first 45 minutes of the game like the Chargers did.
This week we get a high stakes division game between the Eagles and Cowboys – the two teams that will likely battle it out for the NFC East crown by season's end – and the winner of this first meeting will get an early leg up with a little more than half the season left.
Both the Eagles and Cowboys come into this prime time spot off of disappointing losses – for very different reasons – as Philly got lit up and blown out by Minnesota last week, while the Cowboys (minus 2/5 of their OL) couldn't beat the lowly Jets in QB Sam Darnold's return. Yet, it's the Dallas loss that's making all the headlines this week because of the overall quality of opponent they lost too, as the annual October/November tradition of the sky is falling in Dallas has arrived in 2019.
HC Jason Garrett is always on the hot seat after a loss or two, talk about QB Dak Prescott being a franchise guy or being worth a big extension is always met with negativity after a loss, and discussion about if the team is actually 'good enough' or who many thought they really were coming into the year dominates mainstream airwaves. Considering this is an annual occurrence for the Dallas Cowboys, it makes you wonder why the people in the great city of Dallas don't walk around wearing helmets every day during football season for how frequently the falling sky above their heads tickles their hair follicles. But nothing is ever as bad (or good) as it seems for teams in the NFL, and with two sides to every story, it's time to dive into this game.
Total Talk
To be quite honest, there isn't much to like about this total at all. Obviously many bettors out there are waiting for the injury report on both sides before diving in, as the Eagles secondary (and defense as a whole) has been ravaged by injuries all year, while concerns about those two lineman on Dallas remain.
But from all reports it sounds like the Eagles secondary will be a bit healthier this week, and those two Dallas O-lineman should be back in action as well. They were active in warm-up vs the Jets last week and were kept out for precautionary reasons – likely because it was a non-conference game vs the Jets and Philly was on deck – so I would venture a guess that they are back in action. That would suggest a lean to the high side of this total – one that's already been bet up to 49 most places after opening at 48.5 – and if forced to make a play on this total that's probably where I'd go.
But I don't know if it's because of all the QB injuries the entire league has dealt with this year, or if the overall caliber of offensive play is just down in 2019, but the 'unders' have been the side in general with totals in 2019, and they still are perfect on SNF. There has been plenty of bad QB play all around, especially under the bright lights of prime time football, and until that changes I'm not looking to back the high side of a total on SNF.
Side Spiel
Speaking of bad QB play, while everyone questions Dak Prescott and his ability to perform at that position at this level, it's funny to me that the entire betting world ignores even giving a speck of criticism to Carson Wentz. Eagles fans will tell you he's Houdini back there in the pocket at times, but his best escape act appears to be avoiding criticism at all cost. Sure, his injury-plagued career is something that does give him the benefit of the doubt in a sense, but his best escape act is always avoiding a bad word said about his play.
Eagles fans will tell you that injuries, poor coaching/play-calling by HC Doug Pederson on offense and DC Jim Schwartz on defense, a poor secondary, poor drafting in terms of lack of depth, and just all-around mistakes by the supporting cast around Wentz is to blame for Philly's struggles in games this year.
And while the injury complaint is legitimate because no NFL team can thrive with injury concerns – especially when the bulk of them come to one position group of the team – I don't understand how Wentz himself gets a free pass in all of it. Can you tell me what Wentz has won at this level? What big games? Any?
Sure, Wentz caught lightning in a bottle with his play in 2017 before injuring his knee, but it's not like the Eagles went through a gauntlet of opponents in those first 13 games that year. The poor drafting/lack of depth wasn't an issue for them then when Nick Foles came in as a replacement, nor was the play-calling and issue on either side of the ball. The Eagles supporting cast was clearly good enough to go on and win a Super Bowl with Foles that year, and all of that was good enough for them in the latter half of 2018 when Wentz went on the shelf again and they nearly got back to the NFC Championship game. Yes, a few faces have come and gone during those two years, but this Eagles core went a combined 10-3 SU when Foles was under center in 2017 and 2018. Where were all the complaints about everything about this Eagles organization other than the QB position then?
In fact, you take away that 'lightning in a bottle' 2017 season for Wentz, the guy comes into this Dallas game this week with a 15-18 SU record in games he's started. You're telling me that his teammates haven't 'played' for him that often? Come on now. Wentz is the Dorian Gray of the NFL – he looks the part at 6'5 with a big arm, but he's hiding a lot of ugliness underneath the surface if you ask me.
Furthermore, we don't have to go too far back in the time machine to think of another NFC East QB who has plenty of comparables in terms of career arc. This guy was drafted 2nd overall like Wentz, the team gave up 4+ high draft picks to move up to that spot to take him, he caught lightning in a bottle in one (and only one) season where he made a Pro Bowl, had said season cut short by an ACL injury, and watched as his replacement took the reigns of that team and parlayed success there – with the same supporting cast and/or coaching staff – into a big contract (there or elsewhere) just like Nick Foles did. Oh and he also took too many unnecessary hits inside and outside of the pocket like Wentz does.
Anyone got the answer?
How about Robert Griffin III.
RG III's 2012 season in Washington was quite similar to what Wentz's 2017 was (minus the team winning the Super Bowl) and everyone knew then and in the subsequent years that RG III was not a viable long-term starting QB option in the NFL. And while the simple eye test would give Wentz a huge leg up over RG III (admittedly Wentz is much better in that he can accurately throw and has the size of the prototypical NFL QB) it's also why I refer to him as Dorian Gray. His best attribute is simply looking the part of a legit NFL QB and nobody sees the ugly truth that's hidden away in the attic. Wentz just isn't all he's cracked up to be, and for whatever reason avoids taking heat for it as the blame game gets pushed towards anyone and everyone else involved with that Eagles team.
You can argue that guys around him don't play for him, but even if we were to take that as truth, that's just as damning on Wentz for his inability to connect with his teammates and be a leader. But nobody ever wants to say that. Philly had to choose him over Foles because of age alone, and now they are saddled with Wentz for big money, who's shown throughout his young career that he's not even consistent at having the best ability any NFL player could have: availability.
So while the entire world may be spending this week ripping Dallas, questioning how legit they are, and not wanting anything to do with them after losing to a bad team like the Jets, I've got no problem pounding them against the number this week. For one, it's a great spot to bounce back, and two, the Eagles are a team that continues to be thought of as a decent to great team (when healthy).
Injuries are their biggest issue right now and there is no denying that, but yes, play-calling in a specific instant, or specific game, can be suspect, but it's not been a major concern for the better part of a few years now. If it was, or if the supporting cast around the Eagles was, Philly wouldn't have had all the late-season success they had the past two years when Foles was at the helm. Let's not forget that it was Foles who suggested “Philly Philly” to HC Doug Pederson in the Super Bowl too.
Final Thoughts
Dallas isn't without it's warts either as the jury's still out on Prescott and rightfully so. But when you've got an offensive line like the one they've got, and a RB like they do, there is plenty for an 'average' QB to lean on to get the job done. The Cowboys are at home – a place where home field advantage for them has grown to league average the past year or two – and went the cautious route last week to make sure they were as healthy as could be for this week's game, even if it meant getting needlessly slandered by the masses for a week.
At 2-4 ATS against the spread this year, and allowing 27 or more points in four of their of six games this year, this Eagles team is one that deserves to continue to be bet against for the foreseeable future in my opinion. And losing in Dallas on Sunday night likely will be the beginning of the end for their chase of a division title in 2019, that is unless the Cowboys start to become a soap opera like they are known to do and let the Eagles back into the hunt.
In Dorian Gray, his true image eventually gets exposed to the world, and until that happens with Wentz and this Eagles team, I'll continue to look to take these short spreads that Philadelphia opponents are getting.
Best Bet: Dallas -2.5