Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 10/18/19
Friday’s games
Florida Atlantic scored 39 ppg in winning its last four games, after an 0-2 start; Owls ran ball for 439 yards the last two weeks- under Kiffin, they’re 8-5-1 ATS as a home favorite. Underdogs covered five of last six Marshall-FAU games, with Thundering Herd winning five of them- Herd won two of three visits to FAU, losing 30-25 here in ’17. Marshall covered eight of last ten games as a road underdog; Herd scored total of only 20 points in losing both their road games, 14-7 at Boise, 24-13 at Middle Tennessee. C-USA home favorites are 7-4 ATS this season.
Pittsburgh won 12 of its last 14 games with Syracuse, winning five of last seven visits to the Carrier Dome. Underdogs covered four series games. Panthers won their last three games by a total of seven points after a 1-2 start; one of those wins was over a I-AA team. Pitt scored 35-33 points in its last two I-A games. Under Narduzzi, Panthers are 3-2 ATS as a road favorite. Syracuse is 1-3 vs I-A teams wth two I-AA wins; they were held to 20-6-10 points in their three losses. Under Babers, Orangemen are 4-6 ATS when getting points at home.
Ohio State won its last seven games with Northwestern (6-1 ATS); they won five of last six trips to Evanston, covering last three, winning by 10-35-44 points. Buckeyes are 6-0 TY with no win by less than 24 points; they won their two road games by combined score of 99-17. OSU is 11-9 ATS in its last 20 games as road favorites. Northwestern lost its last three games, scoring total of 35 points; Wildcats are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog. Big 14 home underdogs are 3-7 ATS this season.
UNLV won as a 16-point dog LW at Vanderbilt, their first I-A win in five tries; all four of their losses are by 16+ points. Rebels allowed 441+ TY in all their losses; under Sanchez, they’re 15-8 ATS as a road underdog. UNLV won three of last five games with Fresno State but lost 48-3 at home to the Bulldogs LY; underdogs covered last three series games played here. Young Fresno team is 1-3 vs I-A teams, giving up 31-38-43 points in the losses; under Tedford, Bulldogs are 7-4 ATS when giving points at home, 0-0 TY.
NCAAF
Dunkel
Friday, October 18
Marshall @ Florida Atlantic
Game 309-310
October 18, 2019 @ 6:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Marshall
74.624
Florida Atlantic
82.674
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 8
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 5 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(-5 1/2); Under
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse
Game 311-312
October 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
93.843
Syracuse
86.671
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3 1/2); Under
Ohio State @ Northwestern
Game 313-314
October 18, 2019 @ 8:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Ohio State
123.014
Northwestern
86.852
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 36
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 28
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-28); Over
UNLV @ Fresno State
Game 315-316
October 18, 2019 @ 10:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
UNLV
73.812
Fresno State
82.828
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Fresno State
by 9
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Fresno State
by 16
53
Dunkel Pick:
UNLV
(+16); Under
NCAAF
Trend Report
Friday, October 18
Marshall @ Florida Atlantic
Marshall
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Florida Atlantic
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Marshall's last 6 games when playing Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida Atlantic's last 6 games when playing Marshall
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Syracuse
Syracuse
Syracuse is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Syracuse's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Ohio State @ Northwestern
Ohio State
Ohio State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Northwestern
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Northwestern's last 6 games when playing Ohio State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games
Nevada-Las Vegas @ Fresno State
Nevada-Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nevada-Las Vegas's last 5 games on the road
Fresno State
Fresno State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Fresno State is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, October 18
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MARSHALL (3 - 3) at FLA ATLANTIC (4 - 2) - 10/18/2019, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MARSHALL is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-1 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PITTSBURGH (4 - 2) at SYRACUSE (3 - 3) - 10/18/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
SYRACUSE is 1-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OHIO ST (6 - 0) at NORTHWESTERN (1 - 4) - 10/18/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 117-88 ATS (+20.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NORTHWESTERN is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NORTHWESTERN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO ST is 195-148 ATS (+32.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 195-148 ATS (+32.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 164-129 ATS (+22.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
OHIO ST is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
OHIO ST is 77-51 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 77-51 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 127-96 ATS (+21.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 120-88 ATS (+23.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 1-0 straight up against NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UNLV (2 - 4) at FRESNO ST (2 - 3) - 10/18/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 1-1 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Friday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt
The Friday night lights shine on eight different teams in college football this week as it's a nice mix of games across the board. It's because of the schedule being that way that there was no one game to really isolate on, so it's going to be some quick-hitters on most of these games to hopefully help with your handicapping process.
Last week, it was missed opportunities galore for Virginia in their 17-9 loss to Miami, as turnovers, the inability to score TD's, and the inability to get a late stop had all Virginia backers like myself pulling at their hair for that final result. Hopefully this week's top play for Friday can provide better results, so let's get right to some of these games.
Marshall at FAU
Venue/Location: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 18 (CBSSN, 6:30 p.m. ET)
Line: FAU -5.5, Total 57.5
A short week for both teams here which could suggest some sloppy football and a look towards the low side of the total. Both teams are coming off double-digit victories last weekend where they held their opponents to 17 points or less which would further support that look to the 'under.' That is the total side that's getting about 60% of the support currently, but it's also support that has yet to force a move on the number.
In terms of the side, that hasn't moved yet either, despite strong 70%+ support on Marshall as an underdog. Given that Marshall is just 1-5 ATS and hasn't covered a spread since the second week of the season, backing the Thundering Herd here in a public underdog role isn't something I'd be particularly interested in. Each of Marshall's two road games this year have been losses by at least seven points, and I'm not sure they've got the offensive firepower to keep up with Lane Kiffin's squad should the Owls be rather sharp. The Owls have scored 40+ in three of their last four games and Marshall hasn't had back-to-back solid offensive performances all year.
It would be home team or nothing here for me.
Pittsburgh at Syracuse
Venue/Location: Carrier Dome, Syracuse, NY
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 18 (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Pittsburgh -3.5, Total 52
There were some big expectations for the Orange this year, but blowout losses to Maryland and Clemson early killed those dreams in a hurry, and a 1-4 ATS run coming into this week's game has their stock in the betting market arguably at it's lowest point of the season. Syracuse couldn't get much of anything done offensively last week against a ho-hum NC State squad, and now they welcome a Pitt team to town that's 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
Pitt's run recently is highlighted by their SU win over UCF a few weeks back, but they put a serious scare in Penn State as well, along with going into Duke last week and beating the Blue Devils as a small road dog. Recent form suggests Pittsburgh is the play, but I'm not buying it. If Syracuse's stock is near/at an all-time low, then can't you consider Pittsburgh's stock being near/at an all-time high this year?
If that ends up being the case, laying road chalk here of any number with the Panthers is egregious, and it's not like Syracuse has lost ALL the talent they had coming into the year when many expected big things from them. At home in the Carrier Dome under the lights on a Friday night as the potential to be a crazy atmosphere that's worth multiple points to the Orange, although I'm not sure you'll even need the points here. Syracuse gets things together finally in 2019 and wins this game outright.
Best Bet: Syracuse +3.5
Ohio State vs. Northwestern
Venue/Location: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 18 (BTN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Ohio State -28.5, Total 49.5
Based on the results so far in 2019, I've gone against Ohio State far more often than anyone should, and although there are some things working in the Wildcats favor, it's extremely tough to step in front of this freight train that are the Ohio State Buckeyes this year. Your own past results betting for/against a particular team should never have a heavy influence on said team's games in the future, and it would be Northwestern or nothing for me here, but it's ultimately going to be a pass.
Yet, in terms of treating teams like stock valuations, Ohio State's stock continues to rise and eventually it will be time to sell on them. Laying four TD's on the road in a prime time conference game would appear to be a great spot to hit the sell button on Ohio State, especially when Ohio State is on a 3-7 ATS run against losing teams and Northwestern is 6-1 ATS off a SU loss, but I'll be ultimately on the sidelines here.
UNLV vs. Fresno State
Venue/Location: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 18 (CBSSN, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Line: Fresno State -15.5, Total 53
Interesting spot here as you've got a UNLV team off a huge 34-10 upset win over Vanderbilt as 16-point underdogs visiting a Fresno State team that got blasted by Air Force (43-24) last week. Casual bettors would take in those two results and jump on UNLV plus the points in all likelihood, but like the first game on Friday's card, it would be the home team or nothing for me here.
Fresno State is in a rebuilding year after losing so much talent from last year's conference championship team, and they continue to try and need to find their footing. But fading a team after such a big upset win is a scenario that should take precedence here, because it's highly unlikely that everything goes right for UNLV two weeks in a row.
Vanderbilt's not really a good team in their own right and probably shouldn't have been laying that many points, but that was the first time all year against FBS competition that UNLV scored more than 17 points and allowed fewer than 30. We probably see both of those things revert back to form with Fresno State running away with this game in the 2nd half.
Best Bet: Fresno State -15.5