NCAAF Betting Recap - Week 7

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

College Football Week 7 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-15
Against the Spread 28-22-3

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 33-20
Against the Spread 27-23-3

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 23-28-2

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 365-80
Against the Spread 223-212-10

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 305-136
Against the Spread 211-220-10

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 206-237-8

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bowling Green (+26.5, ML +1300) vs. Toledo, 20-7
South Carolina (+21, ML +1000) at Georgia, 20-17 (2OT)
UNLV (+15.5, ML +475) at Vanderbilt, 34-10
Louisville (+7, ML +220) at Wake Forest, 62-59

The largest favorites to cover
Tulane (-34) vs. Connecticut, 49-7
Louisiana Tech (-31.5) vs. Massachusetts, 69-21
Indiana (-27.5) vs. Rutgers, 35-0
Clemson (-26) vs. Florida State, 45-14

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Temple pulled off the minor upset of Memphis, 30-28. While the Owls are 0-2 ATS in two road games, they're a perfect 4-0 ATS at home. ... South Florida pulled off another minor upset in the AAC, topping independent BYU by a 27-23 margin as 4.5-point underdogs. The Bulls evened their record at 3-3 SU, and more importantly they're 4-1 ATS over the past five. The total pushed in this one, and the 'over' is 3-0-1 across the past four for the Bulls. ... Tulsa gave SMU (on a bye this week) a scare in Dallas last week, but that near-miss most have taken a lot of out of them. Navy rolled the Golden Hurricanes by a 45-17 margin. ... Tulane roughed up Connecticut by a 49-7 score, as the Green Wave won and covered their fourth consecutive outing.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Virginia took a loss at Miami-Florida by a 17-9 score, underdogs despite holding a ranking. The Hurricanes are now 3-3 SU/ATS with the total 3-3, which is about as inconsistent and hard to figure as it gets. ... Rumors of the death of Clemson was greatly exaggerated, or something like that. They waffled Florida State by a 45-14 score as 26.5-point favorites. The total (61) was a push. It appears that two-week rest thanks to a bye paid off. For the Seminoles, they're 3-3 SU and 2-3-1 ATS with the 'under' cashing in each of their past three outings. ... Duke rebounded against ACC punching bag Georgia Tech, 41-23. The Blue Devils are now 4-1 SU/ATS across the past five outings while the 'over' has hit in each game. ... Hopefully you didn't hold an 'under' ticket in Louisville-Wake Forest. That was a wild one, ending with the Cardinals dealing the Demon Deacons their first loss, 62-59. The 'under' was 3-0 in the past three for Wake before this crazy game.

BIG TEN

-- Michigan fired out to a big lead at Illinois, leading 28-7 at halftime. However, the Illini put up a fight to close to within 35-25 with 8:57 to go in regulation before the Wolverines notched a touchdown for the final score. ... Indiana smacked Rutgers around by a 35-0 score, covering a 27.5-point number as the 'under' cashed. The Hoosiers have now covered three in a row, and they're a respectable 3-1 SU/ATS in four games at 'The Rock'. ... Minnesota welcomed Nebraska in raw, chilly conditions with a rain/snow mix in the Twin Cities. QB Adrian Martinez (knee) was out for the Cornhuskers, too, while the Gophers ran all over. The Huskers slipped to 4-3 SU and 1-6 ATS, with the 'under' hitting in three in a row, and five of seven. For Minnesota, they're now bowl eligible already, going 6-0 SU. After opening 0-2-1 ATS, they have rattled off three straight covers, too. ... Wisconsin posted their fourth shutout of the season, topping Michigan State 38-0. The Badgers are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS with the 'under' hitting in each of the past three for the Badgers.

BIG 12

-- There were just three games in the conference, including the neutral-site Red River rivalry game between Oklahoma-Texas. As usual this rivalry game didn't disappoint, as the Sooners held off the Longhorns 34-27. Texas has covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season, slipping to 4-2 SU/ATS with the 'over' also 4-2 after this under result. ... Baylor held off Texas Tech 33-30 in overtime. The Bears are a surprising 6-0 SU, but 3-3 ATS, with the over/under splitting 3-3 as well. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three for the Red Raiders. ... Iowa State went to West Virginia and hammered the Mountaineers, 38-14. The Cyclones improved to 4-1 ATS across the past five outings.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic won a lower-scoring 28-13 game against Middle Tennessee, 28-13, exacting a little revenge after a loss in Murfreesboro last season. The Owls have rattled off four straight wins, and they're also 4-2 ATS, too. ... Western Kentucky surprised Army 17-8, and the Hilltoppers have now won and covered three in a row with the 'under' hitting in each contest. They have averaged just 19.0 PPG while allowing 8.0 PPG during the three-game span. ... Louisiana Tech stepped out of conference and clubbed Massachusetts, 69-21. The Bulldogs have rattled off five consecutive victories since losing at Texas to open the season, and they have covered three of the past four. ... UAB routed Texas-San Antonio by a 33-13 count, picking up their fifth win in six tries while improving to 4-1 ATS over the past five. They have scored 31 or more points in four of the past five, too.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Toledo was supposed to mow over rival Bowling Green, but a funny thing happened at Doyt Perry Stadium. The 26.5-point underdog Falcons rolled to a 20-7 victory over the Rockets, picking up just their second win in six tries, and their first against an FBS opponent. The 'under' is 5-1 in six outings for the Falcons this season. ... Kent State won the 'Wagon Wheel' rivalry game against Akron, 26-3. The Golden Flashes are 3-3 SU/ATS, but this was their first road victory and cover in four road tries. Of course, this was their first non-Power 5 opponent away from home, too. The Zips, meanwhile, are a dismal 0-6 SU/ATS. ... Ball State left Rynearson Stadium at Eastern Michigan with a 29-23 victory in tow. EMU slipped to 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS, and they have failed to cover in three in a row. ... Western Michigan romped Miami-Ohio by a 38-16 score as the 'under' just came in. The Broncos have alternated wins and losses in each of their seven games so far, and they have also alternated covers and non-covers. If the pattern continues, a loss and non-cover is coming at EMU next week.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- Boise State lost freshman QB Hank Bachmeier (lower body) against Hawaii, but they continued to roll along as the Group of Five favorite. They topped the Rainbow Warriors, 59-37. Boise State is now 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS with the over/under splitting 3-3. They'll head to BYU next week. ... UNLV surprised Vanderbilt by a 34-10 score, covering as 15 1/2-point favorites. The Rebels snapped a four-game losing streak while picking up their first win against an FBS opponent this season, and they're now 2-1 ATS in three road outings. The 'under' is 4-1 across the past five for UNLV, too. ... San Jose State slipped 41-38 at Nevada, as they're now 3-3 SU while going 3-0-1 ATS across thye past four. ... San Diego State moved to 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS with a 26-22 slugfest against Wyoming. The Aztecs have covered four of the past five. The 'over' in their game on Saturday snapped a 5-0 'under' streak to start the season.

PAC-12

-- USC put up a good fight on the road against Notre Dame, falling 30-27 but covering the 10.5-point number. The Trojans have dropped three of the past four, and they have alternated covers and non-covers in all six outings. The 'under' is also 4-0 in the past four games heading into next week's game at home against Arizona. ... As far as the Wildcats are concerned, they were roughed up 51-27 by Washington. Arizona had their four-game win streak snapped while slipping to 2-3-1 ATS. The Huskies improved to 5-2 SU/ATS, rebounding after their loss at Stanford last week. ... Oregon spanked Colorado 45-3, as Buffaloes QB Steven Montez tossed four interceptions to help out the Ducks. UO has won five in a row since losing to Auburn in the opener, and they're the only hope of the Pac-12. The 'under' has cashed in four in a row. ... Washington State dropped a 38-34 game at Arizona State, and the Cougars have dropped three in a row. That 67-63 loss to UCLA has really taken a lot out of the Cougs. They are now 0-3 SU in the conference, and they have failed to cover five in a row.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Florida went toe-to-toe with LSU into the second half, tied 28-28. However, the Bayou Bengals pulled away late for the 42-28 win and push at most shops. The 'over' is now 5-1 in the six games for LSU. ... The other big game of the day was in Athens, as South Carolina shocked the world with a 20-17 win in double-overtime against Georgia. The Bulldogs went from national title contenders to facing Florida on Nov. 2 in Jacksonville in an elimination game in the SEC East race. This loss might still not quite eliminate them from the playoffs, but it was a tough blow. ... Tennessee won at home, topping MississippiState, 20-10 as the 'under' easily hit. It was their first win in four tries at home against an FBS opponent, and just their second cover in six outings. ... Missouri topped Mississippi in a surprisingly high-scoring battle, as the Tigers have won five in a row. They just missed the cover, snapping a 4-0 ATS run.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State went on the road and topped Coastal Carolina 31-21. as slight underdogs. The Panthers are 4-2 SU and 3-1-2 ATS overall, as they inch closer to bowl eligibility. ... Appalachian State won 17-7 in a surprisingly low-scoring game at Louisiana-Lafayette, covering for the third straight game while staying a perfect 5-0 SU and keeping their Group of Five hopes alive.
Bad Beats
-- The worst bad beat of the weekend happened with the total in Waco. Texas Tech scored a touchdown to go ahead 20-17 with 1:37 to go, with a total of 59. Baylor forced overtime with a field goal with no time remaining in regulation. Overtime was a killer, as both teams exchanged touchdowns in the first OT to make it 27-27. The Red Raiders booted a field goal to make it 30-27. The under could still come through with a defensive stop, but...well, you know. Baylor scored the game-winning TD, making it 33-30, flipping the 'under' to an undeserved 'over'.

-- It might have been a bit early for a bad beat at 5:43, but if you have Florida you were on the right side most of the evening. Most shops closed this game at 14, so it ended a push. LSU scored a 54-yard TD pass with 5:43 to go up 42-28 after a seesaw battle most of the night. To be honest, there weren't a ton of bad beat situations in this week, which is nice for a change.

-- Marshall scored a touchdown with 3:55 to go, flipping an under to an over against Old Dominion. Again, it was just an unfortunate loss, but not a textbook bad beat, but it still stings nonetheless.