NFL Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 6

Giants (2-3) @ Patriots (5-0)— Since 2000, rookie QB’s are 4-7 ATS (0-11 SU) vs New England. Giants won two of three Jones starts, converting 22-42 3rd down plays. Giants scored 32-24 points in their wins, 17 or less in their losses; Big Blue is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a road dog. Three of their last four games stayed under. Patriots are 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS; they’re 16-4 ATS in last 20 games as a double digit favorite- over last decade, NE is 47-28-3 when laying points at home. Patriots allowed only two offensive TD’s on 61 drives this season. Teams split 12 meetings, including last four played here; Giants won both Super Bowl meetings. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or fewer points.

Panthers (3-2) vs Buccaneers (2-3) (@ London)— Carolina is 3-0 with Allen at QB, scoring 29.3 ppg; they scored 10 TD’s on 33 drives, after scoring three TD’s on 26 drives in Newton’s 2 starts. Bucs (+6.5) posted 20-14 upset in Charlotte in Week 2, holding Panthers to 39 RY, just their 4th win in last 13 series games; teams combined to convert only 5-26 third down plays. Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games- they covered five of last six pre-bye games. Tampa Bay allowed 31+ points in four of five games, giving up 12 TD’s on last 33 drives; they split last four game, despite being plus in turnovers all four games. Bucs are on road for third week in row; they’re 14-12 ATS in last 26 games as an NFC South underdog.

Bengals (0-5) @ Ravens (3-2)— Winless Cincy has three losses by 4 or fewer points; they’re 9-3 ATS in last dozen games as road underdogs. In last four games, Bengals allowed 191.5 YR/game and were outscored 61-19 in first half. In their last three games, Cincy has six plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 17. Ravens won in OT at Pittsburgh LW; they covered six of last nine games the week after playing Pitt. Four of five Baltimore games went over; they’ve run ball for 192.2 yards/game. Ravens are 6-10 ATS in last 16 points as a home favorite, 0-2 TY- they covered once in last nine division games. Teams split last six series games; Bengals won three of last five trips here- four of last five were decided by 5 or fewer points.

Seahawks (4-1) @ Browns (2-3)— Seattle had four extra days to prep for this; they played on Thursday LW, Browns played on Monday. Seahawks are 4-1 with three wins by 1 or 2 points; they’re 5-1-1 ATS in last seven games as road underdogs. Seattle is 6-9-2 ATS in last 17 games on natural grass. Cleveland is 2-3 with only one game decided by less than 15 points; they’re 0-2 SU at home, coring 13 points in both games- -they’re 6-13 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite Seahawks lost two of last three visits to Lake Erie; home side won four of last five series games; Seattle’s last trip here was in 2011. NFC West non-conference road underdogs are 5-0 ATS; AFC North home favorites are 0-5.

Texans (3-2) @ Chiefs (4-1)— Houston exploded for a 53-32 win LW after underdogs covered their first four games; Texans split their first two road games, covered five of last six games when getting points on the road- three of their last four games stayed under. Houston is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win. Chiefs lost 19-13 LW after scoring 33.8 ppg in their 4-0 start; they’re 10-7 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite. KC lost field position by 11-7 yards in their last two games- their 6.7 yards/pass attempt LW is a season low. Chiefs won four of last five series games, winning last one 42-34 in ’17; teams split two games here, last of which was in ’13. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 7-1 ATS; AFC West home favorites are 1-4.

Saints (4-1) @ Jaguars (2-3)— Saints won all three of Bridgewater’s starts, scoring 33-12-31 points; they’re 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games, 8-3 in last 11 as a road favorite, 9-4 in last 13 games on natural grass- they’re 7-1 ATS in last eight games where spread was 3 or fewer points. NO opponents converted only 17 of last 49 third down plays. Jaguars gave up 285 RY in LW’s 34-27 loss at Carolina; Jags are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games as a home dog, but 11-18-1 in last 30 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Jax ran ball for 418 yards the last two weeks; Home side won five of six series games; Saints are 4-2 vs Jags, but lost two of last three visits here, last of which was in 2011.

Eagles (3-2) @ Vikings (3-2)— Eagles won last two games, scoring 34-31 points after a 1-2 start; they’re 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog. Philly won field position by 7+ yards in four of their five games- they held all five opponents under 90 YR. Vikings scored 28+ points in their three wins, 16-6 in their losses. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 24-7-1 ATS as a home favorite; Vikings ran ball for 172+ yards in 4 of 5 games- Bears held them to 40. Under is 4-1 in Viking games, only one of which was decided by less than 10 points. Philly is 5-3 in last eight series games; they split last six visits to the Twin Cities, last of which was ’13. Wentz grew up in North Dakota, so this is as close to a home game as he’ll get in the NFL.

Redskins (0-5) @ Dolphins (0-4)— Washington fired Jay Gruden Monday, will probably try to run ball more with Callahan the new coach; Redskins haven’t said who the QB will be- they’re 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Washington was outscored 28-0 in 2nd half of last two games. Miami has been outscored 81-0 in 2nd half of games this year; they’re 0-4 ATS, with a 30-10 loss the closest game they’ve played so far. Dolphins were outscored 132-20 in their first three home games. Redskins lost last five visits here, with four of five losses by 7 or less points. NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS outside their division; AFC East teams are 5-6. I would not recommend wagering on this game- two very bad teams.

49ers (4-0) @ Rams (3-2)— Rams had four extra days to prep for this; they played on Thursday LW, 49ers played on Monday. Sense of urgency for LA with 49ers two games up in loss column; Rams scored 69 points in last two games but lost both of them- they turned ball over nine times in last three games (-6), and converted only 7 of last 22 third down plays. LA ran ball 29 times, threw it 117 times in last two games, not usually a good ratio. 49ers are 4-0 with one win by less than 14 points; under Shanahan, SF is 9-7 ATS as a road underdog. 2-0 this year. Niners have 11 takeaways in four games (+3) but also turned it over eight times. LA won three of last four series games, with average total of 64; teams split last four games played here.

Falcons (1-4) @ Cardinals (1-3-1)— Atlanta lost its first three road tilts by 16-3-18 points; they’re 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games- Falcons allowed 12 TD’s on their opponents’ last 25 drives, and allowed 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in four of five games (Philly was 4.6). Cardinals got first win LW, running ball for 266 yards; they’re 0-2-1 at home, losing by 18-17 points- they trailed 24-6 in the game they tied. Arizona is 14-10-1 ATS in its last 25 games as a home dog. Cardinals blew 23-9 lead in last 5:00 at Cincy LW, but kicked FG at gun for their first win. Home side won last eight series games; Falcons lost last three visits to desert, with last one in ’13, but they did beat Redbirds 48-14 (-9.5) at home LY.

Cowboys (3-2) @ Jets (0-4)— Darnold (mono) returns at QB for Jet squad that was outscored 84-23 in last three games; have to be skeptical of his conditioning right off bat. NYJ offense was outscored 14-6 by Philly’s defense in their 55 plays LW- they’re 0-3-1 ATS in last four games as a home underdog. Cowboys lost last two games after a 3-0 start; they scored 31+ points in their three wins, were held to 10-24 in losses. Dallas is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite on road, 8-4-1 in last 13 games vs AFC squads. Jets won last two series games, 27-24/19-16, after losing seven of previous nine meetings. Dallas won five of seven series games played here. NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS outside their division; AFC East teams are 5-6.

Titans (2-3) @ Broncos (1-4)— Tennessee scored 43-24 points in its wins, 17-7-7 in losses; they were outscored 34-7 in first half of the losses- they outscored foes 36-13 in first half of wins. Titans were 0-4 on FG’s LW, so they changed kickers. Under Vrabel, Titans are 5-2 ATS as an underdog on road. Last four Titan games stayed under the total. Underdogs covered four of five Denver games; Broncos got first win LW, scoring TD’s on first two drives, then hanging on. In their last three games, Denver was outscored 43-16 in second half. Broncos won six of last nine series games; home side won last three. Titans lost last five visits here, losing last one 51-28 in ’13. AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 7-1 ATS; AFC West home favorites are 1-4.

Steelers (1-4) @ Chargers (2-3)— 3rd-string QB Devlin gets first NFL start here; he was 7-9/68 passing in his debut LW, an OT home loss to rival Baltimore. Former Bronco Paxton Lynch is the new backup QB. Steelers are 1-4, but three of four losses were by 4 or less points; Pitt is 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog. Chargers scored only 3 points on four trips to red zone LW in their 20-13 home loss to the Broncos LW- they’re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Chargers’ only TD LW was scored on a punt return. Bolts’ last four games stayed under the total. Pitt won four of last six visits to San Diego, last of which was in ’15; Chargers (+3) won 33-30 at Heinz Field LY.

Lions (2-1-1) @ Packers (4-1)— Detroit hasn’t played in 15 days; all four of their games were decided by 4 or fewer points, all covered by the underdog. Under Patricia, Lions are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs- three of their four games this year went over. Detroit has nine takeaways in four games (+3); they’re 7-2-1 ATS in last ten games on natural grass. Green Bay has 11 takeaways (+9) in its four wins, zero (-2) in the one loss; Packers are 22-13-2 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite. Detroit won last four series games, scoring 30+ points in all four; they won four of last five visits here, winning 30-17/31-0 in last two. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 5-10 ATS so far this season.

NFL Week 6 opening odds: Chiefs' stunning loss, injuries could invite Texans cash
Patrick Everson

An AFC clash among two of the NFL’s more dynamic quarterbacks highlights the Week 6 schedule. We check in on the opening line and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

Kansas City entered the Week 5 Sunday night game as one of just three unbeaten teams. But the Chiefs exited Sunday night no longer unblemished, stunningly losing outright to Indianapolis 19-10 as 10.5-point home favorites. Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes played the whole game despite hurting his left ankle.

Houston has been a little erratic over the first five weeks, but certainly got its offense in order on Sunday. The Texans (3-2 SU and ATS) hung a 50-plus burger on Atlanta, scoring 37 second-half points in a 53-32 victory as 4-point home favorites.

“The line came off the board when the Colts-Chiefs game started, and the number may drift toward 7 after the Chiefs’ loss tonight,” Murray said. “Kansas City is a little banged up right now.”

That said, Murray doesn't believe Mahomes' ankle will be an issue this week.

"I think he's fine," Murray said. "It's not his fault that Andy Reid made that horrendous fourth-and-1 call, and that the Chiefs couldn't stop the Colts on the ground."

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4)

Los Angeles enters this game off a mini-bye, having played in the Week 5 Thursday nighter, but Sean McVay’s troops have also lost two in a row. After inexplicably giving up 55 points at home to Tampa Bay, the Rams (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) fell just short at Seattle 30-29 as 1.5-point underdogs.

San Francisco (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) joins New England as the only unbeatens, but the Niners still have Week 5 work to do, hosting Cleveland under the Monday night lights. The 49ers had a bye in Week 4, following a 24-20 home win over Pittsburgh as 6-point faves.

“This is suddenly a critical game for the Rams, who could be in danger of falling back in the NFC West race with a loss,” Murray said. “You could see this number creep up if the 49ers struggle Monday night.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Philadelphia won and cashed its last two games to catch a stumbling Dallas unit atop the NFC East. After a solid Week 4 win at Green Bay, the Eagles (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) rolled over the hapless New York Jets 31-6 laying 14 points at home.

Meanwhile, Minnesota bounced back from a sluggish losing effort at Chicago by beating the other New York squad. The Vikings (3-2 SU and ATS) went to MetLife Stadium as 5.5-point favorites and coasted to a 28-10 victory over the Giants.

“Considering how wide open the NFC is right now, this game could be a potential NFC title game preview or a matchup of two teams that miss the postseason,” Murray said. “As Philly gets healthy, it could be the best team in the conference.”

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)

As the Yes/No proposition bet of whether Miami goes winless continues to gain traction, this week represents its best chance so far to get a victory. The Dolphins (0-4 SU and ATS) got a much-needed bye in Week 5, following a 31-6 loss at Dallas catching 16 points.

Washington is also mired in a winless season at 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS), suffering double-digit losses in four consecutive games. In Week 5, the Redskins took an early 7-0 lead against New England and trailed just 12-7 at halftime, but never scored again in a 33-7 setback getting 15.5 points.

“I don’t anticipate much handle here,” Murray said. “Both teams are better off losing. The difference is the Dolphins are trying to be bad. The Redskins are just this incompetent.”

Hot & Not Report - Week 6
Matt Blunt

Week of October 7th

Mixed results so far from last week's isolated scenarios, as the 'unders' for teams coming off 40-point performances took a hit with a 2-1 O/U record.

Going against those 40-point performers against the spread the following week as brought a 2-1 ATS record officially, but if you were willing to just take Seattle ML instead of the “dreaded” hook on -1.5, a betting record of 3-0 is possible.

And Week 6 this year is the first time we've got more then two teams on a bye week, and the first time we get a division rematch game as well (Carolina/Tampa Bay). It's not a true home-and-home since they will be playing in London, England, but you know the new-look Panthers with Kyle Allen under center would love to get some revenge.

It's these divisional games that become the focus for this week's piece though,as there are four of them in total – Carolina/Tampa, Cincinnati/Baltimore, San Francisco/LA Rams, and Detroit/Green Bay – and they've all got interesting aspects involved from both the specific and broad view.

Who's Hot

Road teams in NFL Divisional games
15-9 ATS – 11-6 ATS as road underdogs of any number

Not the greatest run in terms of it being 75%-plus or something like that, but these early season division games have been dominated by the road team. A blind 15-9 ATS overall is quite the run in general, and considering road teams only had a losing week in divisional games back in Week 4 (2-4 ATS for road teams), it's something that's proved to be an angle to go back to.

Breaking it down to road underdogs record as well is important because three of the four divisional games this week have road dogs listed, and all are currently getting more than a FG. Depending on how early action shakes out over the next 48 hours or so, these division road dogs could see their spreads drop even lower.

Detroit has already seen a bit of support for their MNF game in Green Bay next week, seeing an opener of 5.5 get bet down to +5 and even some +4.5's, while the initial line on San Francisco that's sitting in the same range, is more stagnant simply because the 49ers still have to play this week. A strong outing from San Fran tonight and you know that number will drop on them next week.

However, the winless Bengals have seen their line go the other way, as it's all been early Baltimore love next week. The Bengals looked awful on MNF against the Steelers, were the first team to lose to Arizona, and have still yet to win a game. I get it, tough to like a team like that and that initial move could be more of simply getting ahead of the masses in general, but I'm not sure what there is to like about Baltimore's spot laying all those points?

It's the third straight division game for the Ravens, after getting waxed by Cleveland, and escaping Pittsburgh with a win. Eventually all that emotional energy is tough to replace, and even though it is the Bengals coming to visit, having Cincinnati winless has to take some of the fear of losing this game out of the equation for Baltimore. The Ravens also have a road trip to play a very good Seattle team on deck, and given the success of division road dogs this year, that sure does look like a lot of points to cover for the Ravens next week.

Who's Not

Betting 'overs' in Divisional games
6-18 O/U in 2019

A run like this for 'under' bettors in divisional affairs isn't all that surprising given the general strength of 'unders' cashing in general this year, but to hit at a 75% clip in a broad isolated scenario like division games is quite the run.

Now this would be a run I'd be a bit more hesitant to blindly ride, as Week 5 saw division games finish with a 3-1 O/U record as some regression to the mean was bound to be on the horizon. We still may have not seen the full brightness of said horizon which makes these 'unders' a little harder to back without digging deeper. But having a place to start is never a bad thing.

With the Carolina/Tampa game actually being a division rematch game already, and being played in London, it will be interesting to see where this total shakes out. Early money has been all about the 'over' as an early 46.5 now sits at 48.5, as the trend of those overseas games being an 'over' bettor's haven continues to have some validity after the Raiders and Bears sailed 'over' their number on Sunday.

But there is film on these two teams already, and most of it wasn't pretty. Granted, Carolina won't be having Cam Newton under center this time around, and the players definitely want to put on a show for their overseas fans, but if this number continues to climb, all of that can still happen and the 'under' can still cash. Like the Ravens ATS early support, this quick move does have some signs of simply being one that's trying to stay ahead of the masses, so keep your eye out for that as the week goes on.

As far as the other possible 'unders' go in divisional games in Week 6, if you are of the mindset of the Ravens being in a potential flat spot because of level of opponent, fatigue, or otherwise, there is a case to look low on that total as well. Three straight divisional 'overs' would be quite the new feat for this Ravens franchise, and if the Bengals are going to hang around and either win SU and/or ATS, chances are with the limited offensive weapons they've got, it's not going to be a high-scoring game. But like Carolina/Tampa, this Bengals/Ravens game has already seen the total get bumped as well.

With the 49ers/Rams game still in limbo as Week 5 finishes, the Detroit/Packers game has also seen an early bump in the total too. Green Bay has started to find things offensively while taking a predictable step back defensively these past two weeks, and the Lions have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

That initial move does make a lot of sense for sure, but depending how high that total gets a week from now, this division 'under' trend is worth monitoring.

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 6 odds: Timing is everything for Eagles-Vikings spread
Jason Logan

Minnesota -3 has been discounted from -110 flat to as low as +104 at some sports, as bookies try to lure action on the home side without moving off the key number of a field goal after early bets pounded Philadelphia.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

As we head into Week 6 and the onset of autumn cools off those northern states, more outside factors – beyond action at the sportsbook – like mounting injuries and bad weather will be impacting the odds and the line adjustments.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT L.A. CHARGERS (-6.5, 41)

The Steelers could be down to their third-string QB for this Sunday night trip to Los Angeles after second-stringer Mason Rudolph was knocked out cold versus the Ravens in Week 5 and remains in concussion protocol as of the start of the week.

Pittsburgh was left with undrafted QB Devlin Hodges as the passing option and that has the Steelers sitting at +6.5 while the betting world waits. With the way the total is starting to tick down – 43.5 to 41 points – it would seem that early Over/Under action is expecting the worst for Pittsburgh’s QB situation.

The Bolts are back home off a rough loss at Denver last Sunday. Los Angeles has just two wins on the year: one in overtime versus the Colts in Week 1 (a game it should have lost if not for bad kicking from Indianapolis) and one over Miami in Week 4 (so, you know…).

But if you believe in the Chargers, who are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a loss, and given the QB questions in the Steel City, you can grab the home team under the key number of a touchdown. It’s already flashing to Bolts -7 at some books, so make sure you get the fave as low as you can.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3, 43.5)

It would seem the Eagles’ win over a terrible New York team holds more weight with the betting public than the Vikings’ win over a terrible New York team. At least, that’s what the early adjustment to the vig for this matchup says.

Minnesota -3 has been discounted from -110 flat to as low as +104 at some sports, as bookies try to lure action on the home side without moving off the key number of a field goal after early bets pounded Philadelphia.

This is a tough game to handicap. The Eagles went into Lambeau and took a game from the Packers in the second half, but put in a less-than-impressive effort versus the Jets, relying on two defensive scores to make a 17-6 win look much better as a 31-6 victory.

The Vikes are a tougher test on defense than Gang Green and showed they could actually put force behind the football, let go, and have someone catch it before it hit the ground (also known as a pass) in Week 5. If you’re putting your money on Minny, wait and see if you can get -2.5 – which is starting to bubble up at some books.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47.5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS

Oh boy, the Browns might just stink again. A week removed from torching the Baltimore defense for 40 points, Cleveland crapped out a lonely field goal in a Monday nightmare at San Francisco, losing 31-3.

It was a tough spot for the Browns, playing back-to-back road games and three away contests in four week, and now the team comes back to Cleveland, where it last left fans wanting after a dismal 13-point effort in a loss to the Rams in Week 3.

Baker Mayfield was a dismal 8 for 22 for just 100 passing yards, throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice (one lost) in the loss to San Francisco. Now, the Browns host Seattle on a short week versus an opponent who has enjoyed a mini bye after winning at home versus L.A. on Thursday.

Seattle is nowhere near its defensive prowess of years past, but the offense can pound the football and chew up the clock. Cleveland allowed the Niners to run for 275 yards on 40 carries and dominate TOP for nearly 38 minutes. The Seahawks handed off 43 times against Los Angeles and hogged the ball for more than 35 minutes in Week 5. That same approach versus the Browns could keep the clock ticking and scoring at a minimum.

If you like a low-scoring finish in Ohio this Sunday, jump on the Under 47.5 as the public will have a nasty smell in their nose after watching the Browns bomb on Monday.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 49 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

On the other side of that Monday Night Football finale in Week 5 are the 49ers, who jumped all over the Browns and didn’t stop until the whistle blew on their 31-3 victory. San Francisco is getting it done on both sides of the ball, especially on offense where they now average 31.8 points per game – second in the NFL.

The Rams are slow out of the blocks this season (only team in the NFL without a first-quarter touchdown) but seem to shake that slumber in the second half. Los Angeles did just that against Seattle last Thursday, putting up 16 points in the final 30 minutes, and Jared Goff is notorious for his home/road production, boasting a 96.3 QBR in Los Angeles versus an 89.3 QBR as a visitor.

This number is already rising, moving from 48.5 to 49, and some books dealing 49.5. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a 50-plus total by the time this one closes Sunday afternoon. Regardless of that movement, you can’t discount the 49ers defense (ranked second in total yards) or a Rams stop unit that despite allowing some bigger numbers, is giving up 5.4 yards per play to foes (10th lowest).

For those leaning Under, wait it out and see how high the public pushes this one before buying a low-scoring – or lower-scoring – finish between these NFC West rivals.

TEAM TOTAL TREASURE

Last week we went 5-1 on full-time team totals and it has quickly become one of our favorite early-week prop markets. Here are a couple of our favorites.

San Francisco 49ers (22.5) @ L.A. Rams: We hate putting our money on a recent performance, but with the 49ers averaging the second-most points per game at 31.8 and the Rams having allowed 85 points in their last two, we don’t mind. We know that San Fran will be on a short week and be without the services of Kyle Juszczyk, but the travel is short, and they only had to compete for 35 minutes on Monday night to get the win.

This is a perfect spot for Kyle Shanahan to beat the Rams using play-action off his amazing run scheme which is averaging 200 yards per game. L.A. owns the 24th-ranked DVOA pass defense and allowed Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to combine for 752 passing yards over Weeks 4 and 5. Jump on the San Fran wagon and grab the Over.

Houston Texans (24.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs: We have backed the Chiefs for three-straight weeks and have come up empty. Andy Reid’s team is just finding ways to beat themselves as they have turned the ball over too much and were very close to having two-straight losses heading into their Week 6 matchup.

Houston and Deshaun Watson are coming off an offensively historic win in Atlanta last week and will take their top-10-yards-per-rush attack to KC versus the Chiefs’ 30th ranked DVOA run defense. KC has already allowed Detroit, Baltimore, and Jacksonville to eclipse 24.5 points this year. Hit the Over 24.5 especially with the Texans scoring a TD in100 percent of their red-zone trips while on the road this year.

AGREE TO TENNESSEE

We may have a good read on the Tennessee Titans for the first time ever. We hit them as 3.5-point favs in Week 4 for a winner and faded them versus the Bills’ defense last week for another one. That means that it is time for the kings of inconsistency to continue this week in Denver versus the Broncos. If you didn’t know, the Titans tend to hurt bettors who bet solely on their previous week’s performance.

Mariota is 0-2 at home this year for just 332 yards and one touchdown but 2-1 for 779 yards and eight TDs with a 110.1 QB rating on the road. The Titans are also 2-0 ATS as road underdogs this year as it seems every week the road pups are hitting.

The Broncos are coming off their first win of the year last week and are 2.5-point favorites after facing spreads of +4.5, -2.5, +6, +3, and -3 — covering twice and zero times as the favorite. The Denver rush defense is also allowing 6.3 yards per carry at home which is only worse than...no, not the Dolphins but the Bengals.

We are getting on Tennessee at +2.5 now as it sits at +2 on a few other books.

RAVENS & DEMONS

The biggest story on Tuesday was the turd that Freddie Kitchens, Baker Mayfield, and the Browns dropped in San Fran on Monday night. We do like the value in a bounce back game for the Browns as the public will have the memory of Monday’s embarrassment fresh in their minds. Instead, we are going to look at a team that allowed that same Browns team to total 530 yards of offense for 40 points, just two weeks ago.

The Baltimore Ravens are giving up 32 points to opponents over their last three with injuries to the secondary having a lot to do with that. In that same three-game stretch, the blackbirds are giving up nearly 300 yards of passing and doing even worse at home, surrendering 333 yards through the air a game.

We know that Lamar Jackson and the offense can put up points, so we will avoid the 12-point spread, but there is no reason that the this week's opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, can’t clear their team totals of 17.5 points and first-half team total of 7.5.

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 6 odds: Cowboys could get caught looking past Jets
Jason Logan

America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles.

If you’re not using situational handicapping to help unearth NFL betting value each Sunday, you’re missing out on one of the better weapons we can use against the big bad bookies.

Situational capping is pretty simple, if you know what to look for: factoring in unique situations for the teams involved. Some of the more common situational plays – or spot bets – are “letdowns”, “lookaheads”, and “schedule” spots

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 6 schedule and highlights the best opportunities for spot bettors to take advantage of the NFL odds.

LETDOWN SPOT: ATLANTA FALCONS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (+2.5, 51.5)

The Arizona Cardinals cracked the win column thanks to a nail-biting road victory at Cincinnati last Sunday, giving new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray their first taste of sweet, sweet NFL victory as well as picking up an emotional win for the franchise following the death of team owner Bill Bidwell.

The Cardinals come back to the desert for a possible letdown spot against a desperate Falcons teams and a head coach whose office chair looks like a Hollywood stunt man in a disaster movie (it’s on fire). Atlanta is 1-4 SU and finished on the wrong end of a 53-32 shootout at Houston in Week 5. A loss to Arizona wouldn’t help Dan Quinn’s cause and after the Redskins canned Jay Gruden, it’s open season on struggling head coaches.

The Cardinals are winless at home, with an average margin of almost minus-12 points per game as hosts, and haven’t been great off a win, going 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a victory. Adding to that lurking letdown spot is a back injury to do-it-all RB David Johnson, who had a monster game versus the Bengals but couldn’t sit down following the win due to pain.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK JETS (+7, 42.5)

The Cowboys' bandwagon has hit some rough highway in recent weeks, losing to the Saints and Packers after a 3-0 start. Dallas has a good shot of snapping that skid in East Rutherford Sunday, taking on the winless Jets.

However, America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles, who flipped their fortunes after a slow start and now sit tied with Dallas atop the NFC East.

The Jets were as big as +8.5 before starting QB Sam Darnold was cleared to play following a bout with mono. That slimmed the spread to a touchdown Tuesday afternoon. New York has been running third-stringer Luke Falk under center since backup Trevor Siemian was injured midway through Week 2’s loss to Cleveland, and has sputtered on offense ever since.

Defensively, however, New York has been competitive. Gregg Williams makes opponents pay in blood for every yard and this team has eight takeaways already on the season. The Cowboys offense has looked lost the past two outings - with fumbles and interceptions killing drives - and their focus could be on Philly in Week 7, opening up a window for fans of the lookahead spot.

SCHEDULE SPOT: CAROLINA PANTHERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+2, 47)

The Buccaneers are technically the home team for the next installment of the NFL’s venture across the pond, getting two points in their matchup with the Panthers in London, England. But on paper, this is Tampa Bay’s third game away from home in a row, and part of a grueling stretch that keeps the Bucs out of Raymond James Stadium for 49 days (with a Week 7 bye in between).

Oakland found itself in this exact same spot (and spot bet) last week and prevailed against the Bears at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as an underdog. The Raiders traveled to England that Monday following Week 4 and spent all week acclimating to the major time difference. The trip isn’t as brutal for the East Coast Bucs, who leave Thursday, will sleep on the plane, and practice Friday. Carolina is planning to arrive a day earlier, with departure on Wednesday.

Tampa Bay has two impressive road wins already this season, at Carolina and at Los Angeles, but looked bad in a loss at New Orleans last weekend. This is also a 9:30 a.m. ET start time – unlike Week 5’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff in London – so perhaps the Panthers have the edge in time zone acclimation by arriving a day earlier.

NFL Week 6 odds movers and shakers: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

New York quarterback Sam Darnold returns this week, which makes a big difference in the line. Without Darnold, the Jets would be nearly two-touchdown home 'dogs to Dallas, but instead are +7.

NFL Week 13 has a dozen Sunday games and a Monday nighter on the somewhat semi-frozen tundra. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

INJURY IMPACT

NEW YORK JETS: This week’s big mover isn’t due to someone who’s out, but rather someone who’s back in. After a monthlong bout with mononucleosis, quarterback Sam Darnold returns to lead New York at home against Dallas. “Without Darnold, this game would be Cowboys favored by 13.5 or 14, seeing as Luke Falk is third string for the Jets,” Osterman said. “With Darnold, we opened at Cowboys -7.5, and we’re now down to -7. Darnold is one of the biggest movers of a line, because of who is behind him.”

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Running back Alvin Kamara (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game at Jacksonville. “With the Kamara news, we moved the line a half-point,” Osterman said of a Friday afternoon adjustment from Saints +2 to +2.5. “If he doesn’t play, then I wouldn’t be surprised if it moved another half-point. He’s very important to their offense right now.”

LOS ANGELES RAMS: Running back Todd Gurley is doubtful to play in an NFC West clash against Seattle, as he deals with a quadriceps injury. “He’s worth a half-point,” Osterman said. Anticipating the Gurley news, The SuperBook moved the Rams from -3.5 to -3 on Wednesday.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: QB Patrick Mahomes’ ankle is apparently fine, but wideouts Tyreek Hill (shoulder) and Sammy Watkins (hamstring) – who both missed last week’s home loss to the Colts – are questionable this week at home against the Texans. The Chiefs are down to -4, after opening -8 pre-Indy loss. “Our Chiefs line had Hill out and Watkins in built into it. If Watkins is out, that wouldn’t have much effect on the line. But if Hill plays, that would move the line a half-point.”

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Mason Rudolph (concussion) is out, meaning third-string QB Devlin Hodges gets his first NFL start, with Pittsburgh +7 at the Chargers on Sunday night. “We expected Rudolph not to play, so the line is already without Rudolph. The difference between Rudolph and Hodges is about 3 points.”

WEATHER WATCH

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The breeze will blow out of the southwest at 17 mph, with gusts to 23 mph. The total opened at 47, reached 47.5, then dipped to 46 Friday before ticking to 46.5. “The total has come down a little bit. Wind can really affect the kicking game.”

DALLAS AT N.Y. JETS: There’s a better-than-50-percent chance of precipitation for this 4:25 p.m. ET kick at MetLife Stadium. But that hasn’t altered any numbers yet at The SuperBook. “We’re waiting to get more of an accurate forecast Saturday.” The Cowboys are -7, with a total of 44.5.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The Monday nighter could be the chilliest game of the year so far, with temperatures in the low-40s/high-30s. The SuperBook opened the total at 46.5 and it peaked at 47.5, then returned to the opening number. “But temperature alone usually doesn’t have too much effect on the total, especially in places such as Green Bay, where low temps are expected.” The Packers are at -4.

PROS VS. JOES

SEATTLE AT CLEVELAND: The line flipped from Cleveland -2 to Seattle -1.5, then ticked to Seattle -1. “This is a classic overreaction from Monday night, when the Browns looked bad” at San Francisco. “Pros are on Cleveland, the public is all over the Seahawks, in a spot where the Browns would probably be a small favorite had they not been blown out on Monday.”

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: This game opened at pick and moved to Jaguars -1.5 by Tuesday, and as noted above, the Jags got to -2.5 Friday on the Kamara news. “Pros are on the Jags, the public loves the Saints.”

REVERSE LINE MOVES

NEW ORLEANS AT JACKSONVILLE: Along with this matchup pitting Pros vs. Joes, it falls into this category, as well. “The line opened pick, and we’re now at Jags -2.5, even though we’ve taken more money on the Saints.” The aforementioned Kamara injury factors into that line, as well.

CAROLINA VS. TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay opened +1.5, the line quickly got to pick, then trended back toward Carolina, with the Panthers now -2.5. “We haven’t taken much on that game in general, but we have taken a little bit more on the Bucs, even though the market is going the Panthers’ way.”