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NCAAF Betting Recap - Week 6

NCAAF Betting Recap - Week 6 7 months 3 weeks ago #513657

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 10/8/19
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NCAAF Betting Recap - Week 6 7 months 3 weeks ago #513658

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Betting Recap - Week 6
Joe Williams

College Football Week 6 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 33-15
Against the Spread 24-24

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 26-22
Against the Spread 25-23

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 18-30

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 327-65
Against the Spread 195-190-7

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 272-116
Against the Spread 184-197-7

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 179-209-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Virginia Tech (+14, ML +425) at Miami-Florida, 42-35
Stanford (+13, ML +425) vs. Washington, 23-13
Texas Tech (+9.5, ML +310) vs. Oklahoma State, 45-35
Georgia State (+6.5, ML +200) vs. Arkansas State, 52-38

The largest favorites to cover
Wisconsin (-35) vs. Kent State, 48-0
Florida International (-27.5) vs. Massachusetts, 44-0
LSU (-27.5) vs. Utah State, 42-6
Missouri (-25) vs. Troy, 42-10

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Navy surprised Air Force in Annapolis, 34-25, putting a step forward in their pursuit of the Commander's-In-Chief Trophy. The Midshipmen are now 3-1 SU/ATS while scoring at least 34 points in three of their four outings. ... South Florida finally found someone they could beat. The Bulls went to Connecticut and hammered the Huskies 48-22 for their first win against an FBS opponent this season. USF is now 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS, while hitting the 'over' in three consecutive outings. ... One of the best games of the day was the Tulsa-SMU battle in Dallas, well, at least if you weren't holding an 'under' ticket. See bad beats below. The Golden Hurricane led the ranked Mustangs 30-9 after three quarters, but SMU stormed back and forced OT, 30-30. Tulsa missed three field goals and had an extra point blocked, including a missed FG in OT, losing 43-37 in triple-overtime. The Mustangs are already bowl eligible at 6-0 SU, while the non-cover was their first of the season. The 'over' has also hit in all six of their outings. ... UCF lost at Cincinnati, taking their second loss of the season. There will be no national champion talk this season. After opening 3-0 SU/ATS, the Knights are 1-2 SU/0-3 ATS over the past three outings.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Virginia Tech was all over Miami-Florida like a bad rash, but the Hurricanes wouldn't quit. The Hokies were up 28-0 at one point, but the Hurricanes outscored the Hokies 35-7 to tie the game on a 62-yard touchdown run with 3:16 to go in regulation. Oddly enough, head coach Manny Diaz elected to go for two, down 35-27, making it 35-29 with 4:55 to go. After a touchdown just 1:39 later, all they needed was an extra point to go into the lead and PK Bubba Baxa misfired, keeping the game tied. The Hokies drove down the field in short order for the go-back-ahead TD, and held out at the goalline at the other end for a surprising good game. ... Pittsburgh fired out to a 26-3 lead at Wallace Wade in Durham, but Duke fought all the way back to take a 30-26 lead with 1:29 to go. However, the Panthers answered right back with a 26-yard TD pass to go ahead 33-30 in a great battle. ... North Carolina picked up a 38-22 road victory at Georgia Tech, squaring their record at 3-3 SU, snapping a three-game skid. They're also 4-2 ATS on the season. The Ramblin' Wreck are a great team to fade, as they're 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS.

BIG TEN

-- Michigan held off Iowa 10-3 in a low-scoring battle at the Big House. After opening the season 0-3 ATS, the Wolverines have posted a 2-0 SU/ATS mark while outscoring Rutgers and Iowa 62-3. ... Illinois is on a three-game skid, and they're 1-3 ATS across the past four outings following their 40-17 loss as 14-point underdogs at Minnesota. The Golden Gophers moved to 5-0 SU, and they're 2-0 ATS over the past two after going 0-2-1 ATS in the first three. ... Ohio State continues to thrash all comers. They started off a bit sluggish, but pulled away from Michigan State by a 34-10 score. After failing to cover in their opener against FAU the Buckeyes have covered five straight games. They also allowed 21 points to the Owls in that opener, but just 32 total points over the past five outings since. ... Wisconsin rolled to another shutout win, this time against Kent State. The Badgers are No. 1 in total yards allowed (182.0), passing yards allowed (131.0) and points allowed (5.8), while ranking third in the nation in rushing yards allowed (51.0). More importantly for bettors, they're 4-1 ATS.

BIG 12

-- Oklahoma State was never able to get off on the right foot at Texas Tech. The Cowboys opened the season 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in the first five outings. The 45 points allowed was a season-high, and the 'over' result snapped a 3-0 under run for OSU. ... Head coach Matt Rhule has Baylor off to a 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS start after hammering Kansas State, 31-12. The Bears were one-point favorites, but this result was never in doubt. The 'under' has connected in three in a row for the Bears, too. ... Iowa State rolled up an impressive 49-24 win over TCU, moving to 3-2 SU/ATS. The Cyclones have alternated wins and losses all season, and over and under results. When they win, the game goes over, when they lose, under. If the pattern continues, they'll lose outright and go under at West Virginia next time out.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Old Dominion opened the second quarter with a field goal to take a 3-0 lead against Western Kentucky. After that, the Hilltoppers rattled off the final 20 points for the road win and 'under' result. After a home loss to FCS Central Arkansas, WKU is 3-1 SU/ATS, including 2-0 SU/ATS in two outings on the road. The 'under' is also 2-0 in WKU's two road contests. ... FIU stepped out of conference and routed Massachusetts, 44-0. Apparently the Golden Panthers want to join a conference playing only New England-area teams. They're 2-0 SU against UNH and UMass, and 0-3 SU/ATS against everyone else. ... UAB outlasted Rice 35-20 in a game marred by a lengthy weather delay. The Blazers rebounded from their shocking 20-13 loss at WKU to move to 3-0 SU at home, 2-0 ATS in Birmingham against FBS foes.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Toledo held off Western Michigan, 31-24, as the Rockets rolled to 3-0 SU/ATS at home and 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two outings on the road. The 'under' is also 3-0 in Toledo's three games at home, and the 'over' is 2-0 in their two road contests. ... Ohio held off Buffalo in overtime, 21-20. While the Bobcats earned the win, Bulls side bettors hung on for the cover. Despite OT, 'under' (51.5) bettors still managed to cash a ticket, too. ... Central Michigan went for a 42-16 win over Eastern Michigan, moving to 3-0 SU/ATS at home, and 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS on the road. The 'over' is also 3-0 in the three home games for the Chips this season.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- Boise State continues to roll along, staying in the driver's seat in the Group of Five race. They rolled over UNLV by a 38-13 score, barely covering for those who laid as much as 24.5. The good news is that this result was a cover at most shops, although this was a bad beat (see below). The Broncos are 5-0 SU/3-1-1 ATS, with the 'under' cashing in three of the past four. ... San Jose State picked up a 32-21 win over New Mexico, picking up a third win, or halfway to bowl eligibility. More importantly, the Spartans have covered three in a row while the 'under' is 4-1 this season. ... Colorado State fell at home by a 24-10 score to San Diego State, as the Aztecs continue to be road warriors. They're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS at home, and 3-0 SU/ATS on the road. Total bettors love SDSU, too, as the 'under' is a perfect 5-0 on the season. ...

PAC-12

-- California tumbled in a low-scoring game at Oregon, the conference's only real chance at a playoff team at this point, and even that seems rather remote. The Ducks are 4-0 SU since their lost to Auburn, while the 'under' is 4-1 overall on the season. The Bears opened 4-0 SU, but lost QB Chase Garbers to injury. It's been downhill since, going 0-2 SU. Total bettors love Cal, as the 'under' is 5-1 in their six games overall. ... Oregon State has flown under the radar a bit, but they have a rather powerful offense. They moved to 2-3 SU, but have rattled off four covers in a row, after winning 48-31 at UCLA. The Beavers have scored at least 28 points in all five outings. ... Stanford surprised Washington 23-13, ragging the clock and playing keepaway all evening. The Cardinal have won consecutive games for the first time this season, improving to 3-3 SU, and their cover was the first since a 17-7 win over Northwestern on Aug. 31, a cover that should have never been (remember that bad beat?!?!)

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Florida might not be getting it done in pretty fashion, but they're getting it done. The struggles of Auburn in the passing offense department finally caught up with them. The Gators won 24-13 in a low-scoring game at The Swamp, as the Gators moved to 6-0 SU/3-3 ATS. They are 0-2 ATS in true road and neutral-site games, but 3-0 SU/ATS in three home games against FBS opponents. The 'under' is 5-1 in six games overall for the Gators. Next up is a trip to LSU, who improved to 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in four games against FBS opponents. Their 'under' result on Saturday snapped a 4-0 'over' streak. ... Georgia had a 43-14 win at Tennessee, but it was closer than the score would indicated. It was just 26-14 at halftime, and the Vols were down only 29-14 after three quarters. Then, the fourth quarter happened (see below).

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State won at home as a near-touchdown underdog, topping Arkansas State 52-38. The Panthers are 3-2 SU with one loss in triple-overtime, and they're 2-1-2 ATS overall with four 'over' results. The Panthers are a fun team to bet. ... South Alabama lost 20-17 in overtime against Georgia Southern, covering for the second straight outing. The 'under' has hit in four in a row, and five of the past six for the Jags.

Bad Beats

-- In the UGA-Tennessee game, there were a total of 50 points on the board with less than five minutes to go. The Bulldogs weren't covering a 24.5-point spread until they had a 60-yard fumble return for touchdown with 4:39 to go, making it 43-14. That flipped the total to an 'over' from an 'under', and changed it from a Vols cover to a Dawgs cover. Perhaps it wasn't a textbook bad beat, but one play changed two results late in the game.

-- If you were holding an under ticket, you felt great how the Tulsa-SMU game was going. After three quarters, Tulsa led 30-9. However, SMU tied it up 30-30 to force overtime, and kill under tickets. And, if you were holding a Golden Hurricane moneyline ticket, they missed three field goals, including a chance to win in OT, and they had an extra point blocked in the game, too. Ugly.

-- UNLV scored a touchdown with 1:23 to go, slicing Boise State's lead to 31-13. Just 16 seconds, the Broncos cashed in a six-yard touchdown run to push their lead to 38-13, covering the spread. If you had the Rebels, it was like losing twice.

-- This only involves teasers, but if you had the Air Force-Navy game in a four-teamer, you know. Navy was leading 28-25 with :01 left. A fumble recovery and return for touchdown affected some totals, as Navy won 34-25 for an 'over' on all teasers. Sportsbooks love those.
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NCAAF Betting Recap - Week 6 7 months 3 weeks ago #513659

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4th Quarter Covers - Week 6
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the sixth big weekend of the college football season to open the month of October. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Temple (-12) 27, East Carolina 17: The Owls pulled away in the second half going up 27-10 with a field goal early in the fourth quarter. The defense got a stop after East Carolina moved past midfield but Temple had to punt back to East Carolina shortly after a delay due to the lights going out with just under four minutes remaining. It appeared that the game would effectively end with East Carolina stopped on 4th-and-2 but an offsides call gave the Pirates a new set of downs. A 37-yard gain put East Carolina into scoring range and a defensive holding penalty eventually gave the Pirates 1st-and-goal. With 29 seconds remaining Holton Ahlers hit C.J. Johnson for the spread-spoiling touchdown. Temple failed to recover the onside kick but appeared to score late on defense with time expired to miraculously save those on the favorite and the ‘over’, scooping up a desperate lateral attempt and returning it to the end zone. Officials would eventually controversially rule that the ECU player that made the lateral attempt already had his forward progress stopped as the points were not added.

Louisville (-4) 41, Boston College 39: Louisville was in control most of this game and pushed the lead to nine points early in the fourth quarter. A big run put BC within two early in the fourth however and the Eagles got a big defensive stop to get the ball back midway through the fourth quarter still in range. Boston College spent 13 plays to advance only 52 yards before kicking a go-ahead field goal with just over three minutes to go, leading by one as a slight underdog. Louisville reached a new set of downs from the BC 22-yard-line looking to strike for the win but with just over a minute remaining settled for the go-ahead field goal which was enough to hold the win but kept the Eagles winning against the number.

North Carolina (-9½) 38, Georgia Tech 22: North Carolina led 17-0 at halftime but just 17-7 through three quarters before an explosion of points in the final frame. Georgia Tech trimmed the margin to nine points with a critical two-point conversion success, but the underdog cover disappeared as the Tar Heels scored consecutive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull away.

Texas (-10½) 42, West Virginia 31: The Mountaineers led early and trailed by just four through three quarters in this Big XII clash, eventually out-gaining Texas with 463 total yards but also with four turnovers. A pair of interceptions handed Texas a pair of touchdowns on short fields early in the fourth quarter as suddenly the Longhorns were up by 18. West Virginia scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes but Texas also added a third short-field score in the final frame to escape with an 11-point win that was enough for many that supported the road favorite for an undeserved win and cover.

Minnesota (-14) 40, Illinois 17: The Gophers had a 20-point edge but a fumble return touchdown put Illinois back in the game, down just 13 heading into the fourth quarter. Minnesota added an early fourth quarter touchdown to get back past the favorite number, eventually adding a late field goal after getting a pair of defensive stops to avenge an ugly loss vs. the Illini from last season.

Navy (+3) 34, Air Force 25: Navy led 21-9 heading into the fourth quarter for a comfortable edge for the underdog but things went sour in the final frame as Air Force scored 16 consecutive points to lead by four with just over three minutes remaining with a missed field goal and a fumble mixed in for the Midshipmen. Navy regrouped to put together an 11-play touchdown drive to go back in front with just 23 seconds remaining and then with Air Force in desperation mode, the Midshipmen picked up a fumble for a late touchdown as time expired to pad the final scoring margin.

Oklahoma (-32) 45, Kansas 20: Oklahoma allowed 360 yards and didn’t seem likely to cover in this contest with only a 14-point edge at halftime. For just over a minute of game clock the Sooners pushed the margin to 35 points in the fourth quarter but Kansas quickly answered and eventually added a second fourth quarter touchdown to stay within the number.

Memphis (-15) 52, UL-Monroe 33: Memphis pushed the lead to 19 points in the third quarter but UL-Monroe hit a few big plays for back-to-back scores and climbed within six late in the fourth. A 68-yard touchdown run from Memphis ended the upset threat and then an interception return touchdown for the Tigers put Memphis back in front of the road favorite price with about six minutes to go.

Pittsburgh (+3½) 33, Duke 30: In a turnover-filled contest Pittsburgh made the most of its early opportunities taking a 26-3 edge early in the third quarter with several short field scoring drives. On an underdog spread that dipped down to +4 or even +3½, Duke would prove to be a late threat scoring four consecutive touchdowns including a go-ahead score with 1:29 to go. Duke hit one two-point conversion and failed on two others as the lead was exactly four. It wound up not mattering as Kenny Pickett was able to lead a late scoring drive to deliver the win for the Panthers, scoring with 38 seconds remaining.

Liberty (-4) 20, New Mexico State 13: The Aggies managed to tie this game halfway through the fourth quarter but the opportunity for New Mexico State to breakthrough with a win proved short-lived as Liberty answered quickly going 75 yards in only four plays as the Flames escaped Las Cruces with a narrow win and cover.

Georgia (-24) 43, Tennessee 14: Georgia led only 29-14 through three quarters but completed a lengthy scoring drive to go up by 22 and then a few minutes later delivered a 60-yard fumble return for a defensive score to get past the heavy road favorite number. Tennessee looked likely to climb back to cover in the final minute reaching 1st-and-goal but wound up with four consecutive incomplete passes.

Ohio State (-20) 34, Michigan State 10: The Spartans scored 10 points in the final 2:24 of the first half to turn a seven-point edge into a 17-point lead. That margin remained through an empty third quarter that included a missed field goal for the Spartans out of the break. Eventually Michigan State’s underdog cover was erased as Ohio State cashed in with just over 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter to lead by 24. Michigan State caught a break with an Ohio State fumble later in the fourth to earn good field position, but Brian Lewerke was intercepted on the very next play.

Boise State (-24) 38, UNLV 13: The Broncos were in control with a 24-0 edge but late in the third quarter UNLV got on the board. Boise State would seal the game with a two-play drive going 70 yards for a touchdown with just over five minutes remaining to lead by exactly 24 where the spread commonly landed. With just over a minute remaining UNLV appeared to spoil that result with a touchdown, though they missed the PAT. The on-side kick attempt went quite wrong as Boise State returned it 39 yards to the six-yard-line and the Broncos went ahead and rushed in for the score with just a minute to go to get in front of the number by a point.
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