Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 9/20/19
Friday’s games
Florida International lost its two I-A games this year, 42-14/20-14; Panthers completed only 24-52 passes in those games. Tulane ran for 350 yards against them. Under Davis, FIU is 3-4 ATS as a road underdog. Louisiana Tech split its two I-A games, and was outgained 455-390 in a 20-14 win over a I-AA foe. Bulldogs are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games as a home favorite. FIU lost its last three games with Tech by 16-10-20 points; teams last met in 2016. Road teams covered all three series games.
Home side won last six Utah-USC games (favorites 5-1 ATS); Utes are 0-4 at USC, losing by 1-18-16-9 points (1-3 ATS). Utah averaged 479 ypg in last three series games. Utah won its first two I-A games this year, running ball for 449 yards; they’re 7-4-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road favorite, winning 30-12 at rival BYU in their opener. USC lost in OT at BYU LW; they scored 103 points in three games, but are -4 in turnovers in those games. Over last 6+ years, Trojans are 2-0 ATS when getting points at home.
Boise State is 4-3 in its last seven games with Air Force, winning last two, 44-19/48-38; underdogs covered five of seven series games. Broncos are +7 in turnovers in last four meetings. Boise won its first two I-A games this year by 5-7 points, gaining total of 1,058 yards, including 621 yards at Florida State. Last 4+ years, Broncos are 7-19 ATS when laying points at home. Air Force is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog; they upset Colorado in OT LW, running ball for 289 yards.
Tech Trends - Week 4
By Bruce Marshall
FRIDAY, SEPT. 20
Matchup Skinny Edge
UTAH at SOUTHERN CAL...Utes 20-8-1 vs. line as visitor since 2014. Utes have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 vs. Trojans, though they haven’t won SU yet at Coliseum since entering Pac in 2011. Helton 9-21-1 last 31 on board, and Trojans 2-11 as dog since 2015.
Utah, based on team and series trends.
FIU at LA TECH...FIU has started slow this season (0-2) after Butch Davis 15-7 run vs. line entering 2019. FIU was 10-4 as dog entering this season but dropped Tulane opener. Skip just 3-8 vs. line at Ruston since 2017.
Slight to FIU, based on team trends.
AIR FORCE at BOISE STATE...Force had covered five straight vs. Boise prior to last two seasons. Falcs 18-8-1 as dog since 2014. Boise on 17-36 spread skid on blue carpet since late 2010.
Air Force, based on team and extended series trends.
Utah at USC
Matt Blunt
Venue/Location: L.A. Coliseum in Los Angeles, CA
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 20, 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1
Line: Utah -4, Total 51.5
It's the second Friday in a row that a Pac-12 team gets the Friday night spotlight, and this week it's a conference tilt between the Utes and Trojans.
For all the talk the Pac-12 gets about struggling to represent itself as a “true” Power Five conference on the national stage given they've got no “elite” team in their ranks, the conference enters the week with six schools ranked in the Top 25, and that's after USC fell out of the rankings after last week's loss at BYU. That was a tough loss to say the least for this Trojans team trying to climb back towards respectability on the national stage, it was a tough spot for them in general, on the road with a freshman QB Kedon Slovis making his first career road start.
The three INT's Slovis threw really hurt as it's hard to win at any level of football when you lose the turnover battle 3-0, and while they didn't lose any of the three fumbles they had too, USC was just all around too loose with the ball in Provo. USC will need to clean that up against a much better Utah team if they want a shot at winning on Friday night, and get what would be their first win against a ranked foe this year.
It is hard to erase the memory of those INT's that Slovis threw a week ago and it's decent support for Utah backers out there. But as I mentioned earlier, first true road starts for freshmen tend to come with some severe growing pains and Slovis wasn't immune to those at all. Utah's defense will present a much stiffer test then the brand of defense that BYU played, and that's another piece of support for Utah backers this week.
Yet, this game is back at The Coliseum and Slovis has been tremendous overall in his action on the field. Home field can mean more in the college game in general, but that's especially true when you've got a young QB at the helm. Even with the three INT's last week, Slovis has shown he's more then a capable passer at this level – which you can credit high school QB coach Kurt Warner with – and the friendly surroundings he'll be in under the lights should help mitigate potential mistakes. But as I said before, Utah's defense will look to be in Slovis' face all afternoon and confuse him with their looks to bait him into errors, and given the veteran-laden roster Utah has, it will be interesting to see how that ends up playing out.
At the same time, Utah and their QB Tyler Huntley will look to do what they did to this USC team a year ago – beating them 41-28 - in a game that wasn't really as close as that final score suggests. The Utes put up 550 total yards on offense and gave up just 205, which is nothing but more support for Utah backers this week.
However, Utah has yet to be tested in any sense in 2019, and as I touched on in this piece regarding Michigan, there is something to be said for teams having already faced adversity and understanding how they'll react in that scenario. USC understands that they would have likely had that BYU game had they been more diligent in protecting the ball, and that in terms of talent on the field, they are right there with Utah. Had last week's game in Provo ended in victory, this would have been a huge battle between ranked foes, and even though the Trojans don't have a Top 25 number beside their name now, they'll be right back in that group with a win this week.
Utah's still got unanswered questions about how they'll react when facing adversity or potentially trailing against a quality foe, as they've trailed for all of about five minutes so far this year. And while they did put a decent beating on the Trojans a year ago, things change quite a bit from season to season, and being in hostile territory never helps either. They are still 0-2 ATS this year despite two relatively easy wins, and even with about 70% of the support in the betting market already, the point spread has stayed relatively static. That's not a good sign either, and with 0-5 ATS run against a winning foe and after allowing fewer then 20 points in their last outing both active here, in terms of handicapping the market, there are a lot of warning signs littered out there for Utes backers.
Furthermore, the Pac-12's reputation of not being a player on the national stage stems from the idea that teams in this conference tend to beat up on one another and those losses by the higher ranked Pac-12 schools in those spots devalue the conference as a whole. Big picture, that's not necessarily a bad thing given that it suggests the bulk of the teams in the conference are fairly deep and evenly matched, because as the great Bill Walton never fails to remind us during basketball season, the Pac-12 is “the Conference of Champions.”
It would fit right into the Pac-12's M.O to see USC rise up at home in this spot and knock off a team that's ranked 11th in the country like Utah is, as Slovis and the rest of the Trojans offense clean up the sloppiness that plagued them a week ago.
The home side has won each of the past six meetings straight up as it is, and are 7-1 against the number going back a bit further. Slovis should be able to use last week's struggles as a great teaching moment to move forward in his career the rest of the way, and Utah is probably a bit to overvalued as it is, just based on the veteran roster that they have.
The Utes could easily stumble in their first road game of the year in a similar fashion to what we saw from USC a week ago, and it's not like the Trojans are the disaster of a program they were in 2018. So unless Mike Leach's concerns from his viral press conference this week are indeed true, and the Ute has upgraded to a rifle, I believe Friday night's game ends up going to the sword-wielding Trojans.
Best Bet: USC +4
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, September 20
UTAH (3 - 0) at USC (2 - 1) - 9/20/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 123-90 ATS (+24.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
UTAH is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
USC is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
USC is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 2-0 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
USC is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLA INTERNATIONAL (1 - 2) at LOUISIANA TECH (2 - 1) - 9/20/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AIR FORCE (2 - 0) at BOISE ST (3 - 0) - 9/20/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 148-108 ATS (+29.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 148-108 ATS (+29.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 2-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NCAAF
Trend Report
Friday, September 20
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech
Florida International
Florida International is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Florida International is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Louisiana Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Louisiana Tech's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana Tech's last 5 games at home
Utah @ Southern California
Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Southern California
Southern California
Southern California is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern California's last 5 games when playing Utah
Air Force @ Boise State
Air Force
Air Force is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Air Force is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Boise State
Boise State
Boise State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Boise State is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games at home
Dunkel's Highlighted Game
Utah at USC - Friday September 20, 2019
The Utah Utes come into this week’s contests with a Dunkel road rating of 99.651. Utah is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games. The USC Trojans come in with a Dunkel home rating of 93.043. USC is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 home games. USC has a Dunkel O/U home rating of 56.193. The Trojans have gone over in 21 of their last 32 home games versus a team with a winning home record. Dunkel’s Pick: Utah (-3 1/2; Over).
FIU @ Louisiana Tech
Game 307-308
September 20, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
FIU
70.766
Louisiana Tech
74.950
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisiana Tech
by 4
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisiana Tech
by 8
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
FIU
(+8); Over
Air Force @ Boise State
Game 309-310
September 20, 2019 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Air Force
86.770
Boise State
93.347
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 6 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 8
55
Dunkel Pick:
Air Force
(+8); Over
Utah @ USC
Game 305-306
September 20, 2019 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Utah
99.651
USC
93.043
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 6 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 3 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-3 1/2); Over