Saturday 9/21/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.
DREW MARTIN FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (325) Temple at (326) BUFFALO U
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Temple -14.0 (-108)
View Analysis
2% at 16.5
__________________
North Coast
LSU -22
Currently line is up to -23.5 to -24
__________________
+EV: CFB 3u: 354 Mississippi Rebels -128 (Saturday, September 21st)
__________________
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 3:30PM
349 Washington -5.5(-110) Westgate vs 350 BYU triple-dime bet
Analysis: How much does BYU have left in the tank after back-to-back outright upsets in overtime over Tennessee and USC? Now they face a Washington team fresh off a blowout win over Hawaii. These two met last year and it was a total mis-match as Washington won 35-7.
__________________
+EV: CFB 4u: 320 Pittsburgh Panthers +12 -110 (Saturday, September 21st)
__________________
ROB VENO FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (311) UL MONROE at (312) IOWA STATE
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 56.0 (-110)
UL-Monroe @ Iowa State Analysis
Like the scheduling situation here in this one as UL-Monroe comes in off of a bye week while Iowa State enters after their heartbreaking 18-17 loss to in-state rival Iowa. Don’t envision this as a payday throwaway game for the Warhawks who boast an explosive offense led by sr. QB Caleb Evans. Fully understand the opposing defenses they’ve faced to date are not in the same category as the Cyclones but their run/pass offensive balance, wide open play calling and dual threat QB are all productive features that ISU’s defense has not encountered thus far. Other side of the coin signals an offensive breakout for Iowa State which steps down significantly in defensive class this week. Monroe was punished for 243 rushing yards on 6.6 per carry by FCS Grambling State en-route to 407 total yards while Florida State torched them for 501 yards gaining 219 on the ground and 282 through the air. Look for Iowa State QB Brock Purdy who just went 25/35/327/71.4% completions versus the rugged Iowa defense to have a field day here while the ground game should click as well. Realistic to expect a Cyclones non-conference, double digit favorite look-ahead spot here since they come off an intense, draining, maximum effort contest and have their Big 12 opener next week against Baylor. That could open the door for the dynamic ULM offense to blindside Iowa State’s defense. Expect each offense to have point scoring success and surprised at the downward movement of the total to 56 off the opener of 57. More than willing to step in and take advantage in a game where 60+ is more than capable of being scored. Recommendation: OVER 56
__________________
NCAAF - Virgobbi Sports
9/21:
South al +10 (-113)
southmiss +39 (-110)
__________________
Sharp Totals Club
3* Rice Under
2* UMass Under
__________________
Las Vegas Wolf
pitt +12.5
old dom +30
ol miss ML -125
__________________
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 3:30PM
370 Tulsa -3.0(-110) Westgate vs 369 Wyoming double-dime bet
Analysis: Even though we cashed going against them, we liked what we saw from Tulsa last week as Oklahoma St had to out-score the Golden Hurricane 20-0 in the second half to get the cover. Meanwhile, Wyoming is 3-0, but the Cowboys have been out-gained in every game this season. Last week, huge underdog Idaho (+27.5) had a 303-287 yard edge and Wyoming only managed a 5-point win. That’s coming off the heels of two wins vs Missouri and Texas St where the Cowboys were out-gained by 148 yards and 151 yards but managed wins and covers. We like the favorite here.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 8:00PM
392 Georgia -14.0(-110) Westgate vs 391 Notre Dame double-dime bet
Analysis: Both teams come in off blowout wins last week. Notre Dame probably isn’t as good as they’ve looked because they are No. 1 in the country in turnover margin at +3.0 a game. Last week, they converted four New Mexico TOs into four TD’s. We feel this is a bad match-up for an under-sized Notre Dame defense. The Irish are allowing 231 rush yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry (that’s vs Louisville and New Mexico). Now they face a Georgia rush offense that is averaging 287 rush yards per game and 7.6 yards per carry. Remember, ND’s starting defensive line average weight is 273 pounds. UGA’s starting offensive line average weight is 329 pounds. That’s 56 pounds per man. Finally, Georgia has won their last 15 home games by an average of 31 ppg. All 15 wins have come by 14-points or more and 13 have been by 21 points or more!
__________________
ken Thomson
3* 368 Texas A&M -3.5 (-110) Westgate vs 367 Auburn
Analysis:
A look back at trip to death Valley to play Clemson in week two for the Aggies. They shut out the Tigers for 19 minutes out of the gate. Held Travis Etienne to 53 yards on 16 carries. Gave up 164 & ONE TD to Tee Higgins & Justyn Ross ...not too bad. Had the ball 6 minutes longer than the Tigers and if not for a RED Zone turnover inside the 5 yard line that game is much closer.
Meanwhile, Auburn steals their opener from Oregon on neutral field with 60% of crowd in Arlington at Jerry's House. Trailed for 59 minutes and 51 seconds....think a¨bout it...if they lost that game...what would this line be? They struggled with Tulane at home only a 24-6 win and then beat up on MAC school Kent State in second half last week.
A&M defense lost six starters and was supposed to struggle but Jimbo Fisher has a solid D in place and should get after Frosh QB Bo Nix who will be in his first true roadie and there is NO BIGGER HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE in CFB than KYLE FIELD!
320 Pittsburgh 12.5 (-110) Westgate vs 319 UCF
double-dime bet
Analysis:
Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel has been unbelievable this season and the freshman has yielded off other suitors for the job. Darriel Mack is now healthy but last season's QB has not gotten his job back. Brandon Wimbush transferred from Notre Dame and he is a back-up as well. Lots of speed lots of scoring for this UCF team. The Knights may have too many speedy weapons for Pitt but the Panthers are¨ a physical team and will hold their own at home. They darn near won at Penn State last week as 17 point dogs and had their chances in the red zone several times before floundering. DL Jaylen Twyman is a beast and if DE Rashad Weaver didn't go down for the year in training Camp this Panther defense would have been relentless. QB Kenny Pickett had solid game at Happy Valley throwing for 372 yards but struggled deep in Lions red zone or Panthers win the game. Pitt needs something from non-existent run game to have a chance. Knights longest Regular Season win streak but you never go....it could stop right....HERE!
KEN THOMSON | CFB SIDE SAT, 09/21/19 - 10:30 PM
398 Washington St. -18.5 (-110) Westgate vs 397 UCLA
double-dime bet
Analysis:
QB Gordon has 6 receivers and a solid du¨el threat RB in Max Borghi.....Bruins Defense is weak and just scratched lead tackler LB Barnes.
KEN THOMSON | CFB SIDE SAT, 09/21/19 - 7:30 PM
376 Texas -5.0 (-110) William Hill vs 375 Oklahoma St.
double-dime bet
Analysis:
QB Ehlinger will help Horns break 4-game skid in this series....not over thinking it...Texas by 7-17
__________________
Bezobets 12-0-1 last weekend football..
3* Wash -6 -115
3* Texas A&M -3 -120
3* Georgia -14 -118
2* Michigan +3.5 -115
__________________
TAP (5-5 50% YTD)
Ohio St. -39.5
UCLA +18.5
Utah St. -3.5
New Mexico -5
Michigan St. -7
LSU -23.5
Western Mich. +6
Florida -14
Appalachian St. 3.5
Georgia -13.5
Iowa St. -19
Temple -14
__________________
+EV: CFB 3u: 347 New Mexico State Aggies +4 -105 (Saturday, September 21st)
__________________
Doug Kezirian (NCAAf Saturday)
Charlotte TT over 9.5 points (-127)
Texas -5.5
Oregon -10.5
__________________
'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 4 college football picks, bets, nuggets
College football season is here, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
In this file, they break down Week 4 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 4 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of 'dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 4.
The plays
The Bear (4-2 last week, 5-9-1 overall)
Stanford Steve (6-0-1 last week, 11-5-1 overall)
Wyoming Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3.5, 45)
The Bear: At 1-2, Tulsa is a small favorite over 3-0 Wyoming, so that immediately grabbed my attention. The Cowboys have a negative passing game in terms of expected points, are 82nd nationally in offensive efficiency and now face a defense that's 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. That's a huge edge for Tulsa over Wyoming, which is 70th on defense. I'm thinking Wyoming's opening-week victory over Missouri is a bit of a fluke, based on close calls the past two weeks against Idaho and Texas State. After putting up 21 on Oklahoma State last week, look for Tulsa to get a home win here and feel good entering its idle week.
Pick: Tulsa -3.5
Stanford Steve: I love everything about the Wyoming football program ... but I think Wyoming is the most overrated undefeated team in the country.
Pick: Tulsa. Tulsa 27, Wyoming 20.
Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5, 47.5)
The Bear: Texas A&M really hung in there at Clemson a couple of weeks ago -- especially on the defensive side of the ball -- and Jimbo Fisher has gotten A&M to play well in big games at Kyle Field, something the Aggies didn't do under Kevin Sumlin (3-9 vs. ranked teams at home). I wonder about Auburn quarterback Bo Nix against that A&M defense on the road here. And looking at A&M's schedule -- yes, Auburn has a difficult slate, too -- the Aggies really need a win here.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5
Stanford Steve: I like what I've seen from both of these teams to start the season, even though the Aggies have a loss. Plenty of eyes will be on Auburn's Nix in his first true road start, as he will take on the atmosphere of Kyle Field and the 12th Man. I think back to last season when these two teams met and Auburn rallied for an unthinkable win. That day at Auburn, the Aggies held the Tigers to 19 yards rushing on 21 attempts. Also in that game, A&M quarterback Kellen Mond struggled, completing 50% of his passes for 220 yards. Mond was a different player in road and home games last season, throwing for four touchdowns and four interceptions on the road and 19 TDs and four INTs at home.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5. Texas A&M 30, Auburn 21.
Georgia State Panthers at Texas State Bobcats (-3, 63.5)
Stanford Steve: This is the first time in the Bobcats' 39 games at the FBS level that they are favored. They win, but they don't cover.
Pick: Georgia State +3. Texas State 29, Georgia State 28.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5, 57.5)
Stanford Steve: If you want to bet the game where College GameDay is going ... the Irish cover.
Pick: Notre Dame +14.5. Georgia 34, Notre Dame 24.
Stay-away games
The Bear
Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5, 44)
The Badgers' defense has been great against nobody, while the Wolverines' offense has sputtered. Michigan has more talent than Wisconsin, but it's hard to back the Wolverines until we see them put a complete game together. While it wouldn't surprise me to see them play well Saturday, what if the Badgers are for real? Too many questions for me to get involved.
Utah Utes (-4, 52) at USC Trojans
We know the numbers on Clay Helton as a 'dog (they aren't good), but I thought USC played OK last week at BYU. The world will be on Utah here. I'll sit and watch, and if things start going south, in-game betting will be the way to go.
Stanford Steve
UCF Knights (-12.5, 61) at Pittsburgh Panthers
No clue how Pitt gets up off the deck after last week.
California Golden Bears at Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5, 41)
The stat about ranked teams that are underdogs on the road vs. unranked teams scares me (see the Bear Bytes below), because Cal feels like the right side.
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
Boston College blew it up Friday night, so hopefully you reloaded Saturday, as the remaining 10 won. Here's this week's edition. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 gets you $43.16.
Iowa State -1150
Indiana -3700
Miami -6000
Virginia -6000
LSU -2200
Baylor -3500
Georgia -650
The Bear's underdogs to play on the ML or in a parlay or round-robin
Last week four of the five won, and if you played a $10 round-robin, you would have made roughly $1,100. Hopefully a couple of these can get home this week.
Pitt +375
Western Michigan +185 (FPI has WMU favored in the game)
Kentucky +200
Appalachian State +135
Louisville +200
SMU +280
BYU +200
Stanford Steve's big-game money-line parlay
A $100 bet wins $497.
Utah -180
Texas A&M -160
Wisconsin -160
Texas -220
Stanford Steve's three-team, 10-point teaser for Friday
Utah +6
Florida International +18
Air Force +18.5
Stanford Steve's favorite team total over
Alabama over 49
Stanford Steve's underdog that might be worth taking on the ML
Northwestern +310
Bear Bytes
Not much fight
Under Clay Helton, USC is 1-12 outright and 2-11 against the spread as an underdog. Eleven of the 12 losses have come by double digits, and eight of the 12 losses came by at least 17 points. The average margin of defeat in USC's past 12 losses as an underdog: 18.8 points per game. USC as an underdog under Helton:
2018 vs. Notre Dame (+12), lost by 7
2018 at Utah (+7), lost by 13
2018 at Texas (+3.5), lost by 23
2018 at Stanford (+5), lost by 14
2017 vs. Ohio State (+10), lost by 17 (Cotton Bowl)
2017 at Notre Dame (+3.5), lost by 35
2016 at Washington (+8), won by 13
2016 at Utah (+3), lost by 4
2016 at Stanford (+7), lost by 17
2016 vs. Alabama (+12), lost by 46 (Arlington, Texas)
2015 vs. Stanford (+4.5), lost by 19
2015 at Oregon (+4), lost by 20
2015 at Notre Dame (+6), lost by 10
Michigan struggles as an underdog
Michigan has failed to win a game under Jim Harbaugh in which the Wolverines entered as an underdog. Michigan is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS as a 'dog under Harbaugh. Four of the six losses have been by at least 11 points. Only two full-time Power 5 head coaches have been an underdog at least six times since 2015 (Harbaugh's first season at Michigan) and failed to win a game: Harbaugh (0-6) and Indiana's Tom Allen (0-14).
Mike Gundy excels in this role
In its past nine games as an underdog, Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS, with seven outright wins. One of Gundy's squad's losses came by one point against Oklahoma last season as a 21.5-point 'dog.
Odds are Notre Dame at Georgia will not be close
We all love big regular-season games between top-10 teams. But lately, those games haven't necessarily lived up to the hype or produced many upsets. In the past 13 pre-bowl meetings between top-10 teams, favorites are 10-3 ATS. The only underdog to win during that stretch was Ohio State (+4) last season at home vs. Michigan.
Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in its past 17 games against top-five teams. The Irish are 1-18 SU in their past 19 against top-five teams, with a scoring margin of minus-20.6 PPG. Fourteen of the 18 losses have come by at least 14 points and 10 by 20-plus points. Under Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is 0-4 in this spot, with three of four losses by at least 14 points.
Worst win percentage vs. top-five teams since 2000 (minimum 10 games):
Wake Forest 0-16
Vanderbilt 0-15
Indiana 0-13
Boston College 1-17
Notre Dame 1-17*
*0-4 under Kelly (three losses by 14-plus points)
Since 1978, there have been 28 top-10 matchups where the spread has been at least 14 points. The favorite has won 24 of them and gone 16-12 ATS (18-2 SU, 12-8 ATS in the 20 regular-season games). The four 'dogs to win outright, two of which came in a conference title game:
2015, No. 9 Michigan State at No. 2 Ohio State (-14), W, 17-14
2001, No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Florida (-17.5), W, 34-32*
1998, No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Kansas State (-17.5), W, 36-33*
1994, No. 6 Auburn at No. 1 Florida (-17), W, 36-33
*Conference championship game
Northwestern a live 'dog?
Few teams perform better in the underdog role than Pat Fitzgerald's Northwestern Wildcats. The Cats are 13-4-1 ATS with 10 outright wins in their past 18 games as a 'dog, including a 7-1-1 mark with six outright wins as a 'dog in 2018, one of which was a 29-19 victory at Michigan State as an 11-point underdog. In the Spartans' past five games against Power 5 opponents, the offense has three touchdowns and nine turnovers in 67 drives. During that span, MSU has one 80-yard drive, has been held to single digits in four of five games and failed to score a touchdown in three of the five games.
Unusually high spread for Florida-Tennessee
This is the largest spread (Gators -14) in the Florida-Tennessee series since 2013. Florida won 31-17 that season as a 16-point favorite in Gainesville. The Gators have failed to cover four of the past five games in which they were favored.
Which way will Ole Miss vs. Cal go?
As an underdog at Cal, Justin Wilcox is 12-6 ATS with seven outright wins. Since 2015, there have been 25 instances in the pre-bowl season where a team ranked 20th or lower entered a game against an unranked team as an underdog. Ranked teams are just 4-21 SU during that span. Last season, there were six instances, with Northwestern's victory at Minnesota marking the only time the ranked team did not lose. Two weeks ago, unranked Maryland and USC both knocked off ranked underdogs in this spot. Add it all up, and since the start of last season, unranked favorites against teams ranked 20-25 are 8-1 SU and ATS. If you think that trend will continue, Ole Miss is your play this weekend.
Bad home 'dog vs. bad road favorite
Last week's win over USC was the only time in seven tries as a home underdog under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered the spread (1-5-1 ATS). However, Washington is 2-4 (1-5 ATS) in its past six games as a road favorite. Included in that are two losses as a double-digit favorite.
Pitt typically hangs around in these games
In its past five games as a regular-season double-digit underdog, Pitt, which hosts UCF on Saturday, is 4-1 ATS with one outright win and three losses by seven points or fewer. The only game Pitt didn't cover during that span was a 31-point loss at UCF last season as a 13.5-point underdog.
Rare favorites
This is the first time in 39 games Texas State is favored over an FBS opponent (-3 vs. Georgia State). The last time Texas State was favored over an FBS opponent was Nov. 19, 2015, vs. Louisiana Monroe. Dennis Franchione's team beat Todd Berry's team 16-3 as a 6.5-point favorite.
Kansas isn't a big 'dog!
Saturday marks the first time since 2014 that Kansas is an underdog of less than a touchdown in a Big 12 game (West Virginia -4.5). The last time Kansas was a 'dog of less than a TD was Nov. 8, 2014, when the Jayhawks beat Iowa State 34-14 as a 3.5-point 'dog. That was 40 games ago.
North Carolina on upset alert?
Appalachian State has covered each of its past two games against Power 5 teams. Last season, the Mountaineers lost 45-38 at Penn State as a 24-point underdog in a game they probably should have won. And in 2017, App State lost 20-19 to Wake Forest as a 5.5-point 'dog. The Mountaineers are 3-point underdogs at North Carolina.
Fade Florida State?
Florida State is 2-6 ATS with three outright losses in its eight games as a favorite under Willie Taggart.
Trust the Ducks or Cardinal?
Oregon (-10) has been a brutal road team in Pac-12 play lately -- 3-13 both straight up and against the spread since 2016. But can you take Stanford with any confidence?
__________________
+EV: CFB 4u: 367 Auburn Tigers +4 -113 (Saturday, September 21st)
__________________
Colin Cowherd’s Marquee 3 (1-3 last week, 2-6 overall)
Texas A&M -3.5
Washington -6.5
Georgia -14.5
__________________
Alex B Smith Sports
College Football
9/21 1* Colorado +7.5
9/21 1* North Carolina -3 -105
9/21 1* Texas A&M -3.5
9/21 1* Stanford/Oregon Under 58.5
9/21 1* Nevada-Reno -14.5
__________________
Doug upstone
college
6-uab-11
5-a.force+7.5
4-pitt+12
4-old.dom+28.5
4-wisconsin-3.5
__________________
Nfac
SATURDAY 9-21-19 =
UFC : YAIR RODRIGUEZ +100...($600) Pinnacle at +103
UFC : KYLE NELSON -115...($600) via Pinnacle
351) OVER 48.5 COL-ARIZ ST...($800) - BIG MOVE via Bookmaker
398) OVER 57.5 UCLA-WASH ST...($800) - BIG MOVE via Bookmaker
320) PITTSBURGH +11.5...($750) via Pinnacle
329) OLD DOMINION +29...($750) via Cantor
__________________
LV Wolf
267 Aub 1h under 23.5
__________________
Ultra Sports
San Diego St +4
__________________
+EV: CFB 4u: 331 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -16.5 -104 (Saturday, September 21st)
__________________
Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole
Nebraska -13.5
Texas -6.5
Georgia -14.5
SINGLE PLAYS:
Iowa State -19
Charlotte +41.5
Ohio -3
Michigan State -9
Wisconsin -3.5
So. Mississippi +38.5
Texas A&M -3.5
Arkansas -20.5
Toledo -9
Washington State -18.5
San Diego State +4.5
SMU +9
__________________
MARCO D'ANGELO
PLAY: (349) WASHINGTON -5.5
RATING: 4% PLAY
Coming into the season I felt Washington was the Best Team in the PAC 12 and I still feel that way even though Washington lost 2 weeks ago to Cal. Note that game had a long weather delay you never know how teams are going to be affected by something like that. I’m going to dismiss that loss also pointing out that Cal has a solid defense. This play is all about going against BYU who is coming off back to back Upsets in OT over Power 5 Conference teams Tennessee and USC. We went against USC last week because USC was in the middle of a sandwich spot and BYU took advantage of it. But now after BYU stormed the field last week it’s time to fade BYU as they are in the flat spot this week. I realize Washington has USC on deck but do you really think they will look ahead to USC when BYU just beat USC. Not to mention look at BYU’s schedule this will be 4 straight Big Games for them. Opened with Utah, Tennessee, USC and now Washington. BYU has to be worn out. Washington has a great defense and should limit BYU much like Utah did earlier this year. Washington QB Jacob Eason is the best QB BYU will have seen so far and in his 1st season with Washington Eason is hitting 69% of his throws for 773 yards and a 7-1 TD to INT ratio. Washington is also rushing for 190 yards per game at nearly 5 yards a pop. Washington rolls big 34-20.
TAKE WASHINGTON as MARCO’S 4% WISE GUY GAME
__________________
Stephen Oh
Data Scientist
Northwestern +9.5
__________________
Gold sheet
northwestern
byu
louisville
__________________
PHIL STEELE
utah
north carolina -3
michigan +3.5
northwestern +9.5
san diego state +4
__________________
DWAYNE BRYANT
Game: (365) APPALACHIAN ST at (366) NORTH CAROLINA
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: APPALACHIAN ST 2.5 (-103)
3:30 PM ET -- College Football
365 Appalachian State
366 North Carolina
PLAY = #365 APPALACHIAN STATE +2.5 (-110)
BET SIZE = 5%
PSA: 5% MAX BET does NOT mean bet all the money you have. It also does NOT mean bet money you don't have. It simply means 5% of your bankroll is the most we will ever bet on any single play, and that is what we are betting on this one. BE SMART! BET SMART!
DB's THOUGHTS:
This is a tough spot for the small home chalk. UNC started the season with a pair of straight-up underdog wins over South Carolina and Miami, FL. The Heels followed those wins with a 24-18 loss as a 3-point dog at Wake Forest. One might think UNC would be fired up for this one, coming off that loss. But a quick glance at the schedule finds UNC with a HUGE home game up next against Clemson. I'd be shocked if UNC came out of the gate with a solid effort here.
This game means something to Appy State. They are the little brother in this in-state rivalry. Motivation will not be a problem. The Mountaineers are coming off a bye, so they have had plenty of time to prep for this one. Appy State's new head coach and defensive coordinator came from NC State (an ACC and in-state rival of UNC). They know the Heels.
With Appy State definitely wanting this game & UNC looking ahead to Clemson, the small road dog looks like a very solid play. In fact, it is my opinion that the wrong team is favored in this one.
PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE.
__________________
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 12:00PM
359 Southern Miss. 38.5(-110) William Hillvs 360 Alabama single-dime bet
Analysis: Southern Miss comes in off an upset win at Troy last week. The two teams combined for 1,154 total yards including 1,018 yards passing and 42 4Q points. Southern Miss WR Quez Watkins had 209 yards receiving while Jaylond Adams had 180 receiving yards and also returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD. On the other side, South Carolina had a 31-25 first down edge but Alabama had a 571-459 yard edge in the Crimson Tide’s 47-23 win. The Gamecocks got a 11-yard TD pass with :11 left for the back-door cover. Note they were covering the whole game until Bama scored a TD with 2:04 left. Remember Alabama is just 6-17 ATS laying 35 or more points since late 2011. We like the dog who has plenty of back-door potential here especially with a sleepy 11:00am local kick.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 7:00PM
329 Old Dominion 28.5(-110) William Hill vs 330 Virginia single-dime bet
Analysis: Last week, we pushed with UVA -7 over Florida St. Virginia had 27-21 first down and 415-329 yard edges but were -2 in TO’s and UVA actually trailed 17-10 entering the 4Q. The situation says to play Old Dominionhere who comes in off a bye after giving a scare to Virginia Tech a couple weeks ago in a 14-point loss. Meanwhile, Virginia comes in off that emotional win vs Florida State and the Cavaliers have a huge trip to Notre Dame on deck. We like the dog.
__________________
barrett sallee
cal+2
wiscy-3.5
under 48.5 texas a&m
__________________
Strike Point Sports
5 units south carolina+9.5
__________________
Nfac
364) vanderbilt +24.5…($600)
391) notre dame +14.5…($500)
312) under 55 ulm-isu…($500)
343) michigan +3.5…($500)
__________________
Big move
365) appalachian st +3 (-120)…($500)
376) under 73 osu-texas…($500)
393) louisville +7 (-120)…($500)
397) ucla +19…($500)
__________________
Daily Wager ESPN2
Old Dominion
Temple
Texas
Tulsa
__________________
Barton simmons
oregon -10.5,
tennessee +14
texas over 72.5
texas am -3.5,
wisconsin -3.5
__________________
Brett sallee
auburn under 48
california +2
wisconsin -3.5
__________________
Emory hunt
app state +3
west michigan +6
uab -10
oregon -10.5
texas -5.5
ull +3.5
boston college -7
california +2
ul monroe +18,5
__________________
Josh nagel
texas
__________________
Micah roberts
wisconsin -3.5
texas -7
texas am -4
illinois over 62
washington under 51
__________________
Michael rusk
indiana -27.5
texas under 72.5
buffalo +15
miami ohio +38.5
boston college -8
california over 41.5
__________________
Scott Van Pelt
USC Friday
W Mich
Michigan
ND
App St
Charlotte
Vandy
Missouri
__________________
Stephen oh
northwestern +9.5
central florida -10.5
__________________
Phil steele
final with additional plays
north carolina -3
michigan +3.5
northwestern +9.5
san diego state +4
ole miss -2.5
miami florida -29.5
nebraska -13,
odu +28.5
tennessee +14.5
florida atlantic small college -35
tulsa -3.5
__________________
Preston johnson
the cheetah
best bet
old dominion +28.5
__________________
BANKER SPORTS
LOCK
OLE MISS
STRONG
SOUTHERN MISS
regular
washington
__________________
Greg shaker
total of month
washington state over
__________________
Vincent rizzo
3* oklahoma state
__________________
Tom Stryker
29-12 ATS NCAA CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK
Michigan State
35-11 ATS NCAA HIGH ROLLER ELITE BEST BET
LSU
14-2 ATS NCAA LIVE DOG UPSET SPECIAL
Kentucky
35-11 ATS NCAA SATURDAY NIGHT CONFERENCE STEAMROLLER
Oregon
51-24 ATS & 30-9 ATS NCAA CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH
Colorado
__________________
mike calvin vegaskillers
Mich-Wis over 44
Bc-Rutgers over 57.5
Lsu-Vandy over 62
__________________
MARCO'S 5% play
Miss State -6
__________________
ASA
7 star Washington cfb
__________________
Teyas sport
9/21/2019
guarantee cfb wisconsin -3 1/2
bonus plays cfb n.western +9 byu + 6 1/2 tennessee +14 florida st. -6 1/2
9/21/2019
guarantee cfb oklahoma st. +7
bonus plays cfb oklahoma st. Over 72 1/2 colorado st. +8 1/2 notre dame +14 1/2 washington st. -18 1/2
9/21/2019
guarantee mlb cincinnati +120
bonus plays mlb cincinnati under 9 milwaukee under 9 arizona -130 chicago w.sox -123
__________________
allan desrosiers
15 georgia
8 texas am
8 pitt
__________________
Lee Sterling
35 Tulsa, mizzou
30 BC, Mia Fl
25 AUB
__________________
calvin king
7% Baylor -26
4% SMU +10
4% Stanford +9.5
4% S. Alabama +10.5
4% old dominion +31
4% Charlotte +42
4% Ohio state -39
4% Nebraska -11.5
4% ole miss -1
4% Utah st -3
4% central Florida -12.5
__________________
Bob Valentino
Top-Rated
100 DIME
Lead Pipe Lock Winner # 12 of 18
Big 12 Game of the Year
OK state
__________________
DR. CHUCK
Game: (347) NEW MEXICO STATE at (348) NEW MEXICO
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 4:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: NEW MEXICO -4.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Digging deep into a slate of games this big is really the most efficient way to make solid dough. Sure I could struggle to pick a side in the Wisky/UM game or the A&M/Auburn game etc. Here is a rivalry game in the state of New Mexico where the game goes far under the radar...but not for us. We backed the SDSU Aztecs last week on the road here facing the Aggies and much like we assumed...it does not appear that NMSU can score no matter who they're playing against. Much more is known at this point about how Bob Davie's team went to face his old squad sans him on the sideline in South Bend last week and got sent back with his tail between his legs for a 50+ point drubbing. (Davie is still likely not back today...not sure it matters against this defense with that offense) They only have Sam Houston State on the schedule thus far and no "official" stats are accumulated for such a game. This leads to New Mexico Lobos sitting at the bottom of the entire country in most all defensive categories...based upon one beating to a team likely CFP bound if they can sneak past Georgia today.
New Mexico shows a 9 yards per play against now and a 66-14 point differential...and while not a stellar team to back by any means...this looks like a cake walk at a crazy discount price. Vegas likely had no clue how to go about getting ANYONE to bet on the Aggies today...so giving them more than a TD in a rivalry game with the Lobos off a debacle (and NMSU just off a mere 31-10 defeat) was a solid and effective way to do it.
We will jump in big at this -4 discount price in a game I have the Lobos winning going away by double digits. The Lobos have a solid offense that can overshadow the detrimental defensive side....dissimilar from NMSU who struggles to score period...but also stop their opponents. NM is 14-6 last 20 after allowing as many passing yards as the Irish put on them...and the Aggies are 1-11 ATS the last 12.
Game: (315) Charlotte at (316) CLEMSON
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1Q CLEMSON -10.0 (-135)
View Analysis
Just a de facto play here and kind of a shocking price...the Tigers DON'T score twice in the 1st quarter is all we need to be betting against here? Shocking value and price...Trevor and Etienne and that defense should be up 14-0 thru 15 minutes...and I won't be too surprised if it's a 21 point quarter.
__________________
Brandon Lang
SATURDAY
WINNING DAY #32 OF 46
#9 Of 13
BIGGEST COLLEGE
RELEASE OF THE YEAR
100 DIME
WINNER #10 OF 15
ODDSMAKER ERROR
GAME OF THE YEAR
100 Dimes - Wisconsin -2 1/2
__________________
DR CHUCK
Game: (335) TROY at (336) Akron
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: TROY -17.0 (-110)
View Analysis
The mismatch here is bordering on epic sadly and this is with an away team laying 3 scores. Akron went into the game with CMU last week as the team Vegas saw as the superior team on a neutral field! They were getting merely 2.5 points and lost by 21 points...the Zips were even down 17-0 to the Chippewas before you could even blink! The Trojans are off a shootout loss to Southern Miss...but the offense is solid and Akron is very poor on both ends of the ball...allowing nearly 8 yards per play on defense and having a sub-4.0 yards per play on offense.
If Troy can limit mistakes this is gonna be as ugly as it gets for the poor AKRowdy home crowd!
Game: (379) SMU at (380) TCU
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 28.0 (-110)
View Analysis
TCU record on Unders in this spot is flat out ridiculous 12 for the last 12, and this isn't even a stretch past many seasons or coaches or anything...it is all Gary Patterson and just back to 2016! SMU has started off 3-0 in good fashion and has stuck very close to home for all 3 games so far..even when on the road at Arkansas State. Simultaneousy they have not faced even close to the competition they will get today with the TCU defense...who even shut down the Purdue pass happy spread offense down to just 14 points in West Lafayette.
This will be a plodding start in my opinion and the price for the first half appears to be better than full game at this point....but if you can get full game 56 or higher...get on that as well!
__________________
Great Lake Sports
4* Georgia
3* Wisconsin
__________________
Pointwise phones
4-temple, washington st
3-boston college,central florida, nebraska,connecticut
2-louisville, utah, air force
__________________
Spartan
HUGE RABID DOG TRIPLE GAME OF YEAR!
3* South Carolina
__________________
Goodfella
3* CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF YEAR
Georgia
__________________
Steve Stevens
4.5/5 stars
Alabama -38
__________________
Tony Finn
FINN SEC GAME OF THE WEEK (4-0)
Game: (363) LSU at (364) VANDERBILT
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: LSU -23.5 (-108)
FINN BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK
Game: (375) OKLAHOMA STATE at (376) TEXAS
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: OKLAHOMA STATE 6.5 (-107)
PRIMETIME COLLEGE SAT: IRISH v BULLDOGS
Game: (391) NOTRE DAME at (392) GEORGIA
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: GEORGIA -14.0 (-108)
FINN SAT NITE PAC 12 GAME ~ WEEK (13-3)
Game: (397) UCLA at (398) WASHINGTON STATE
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 10:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: WASHINGTON STATE -18.5 (-108)
__________________
Balfe
NCAA Football
12:00 PM EST
Rotation #337-338
Boston College -7.5 over Rutgers
Boston College/Rutgers Over 57.5
The good news for Boston College is they are playing Rutgers. The bad news is they are coming off a historically bad home loss to Kansas. This Boston College Defense is young and it is not talented. BC catches a break today with the Rutgers starting QB out of this game, but Rutgers still have running backs that should be able to have big gains. BC will run a faster tempo on offense and they still have one of the best players in the country in AJ Dillon. Rutgers is not a talented program and I can’t think of one power five conference team that could have been a better draw for BC. This team is going to be playing angry in this early kickoff. At some point the Eagles are going to doubt themselves, but in the long run will be too much on offense for Rutgers to keep up with. Take BC and the Over.
NCAA Football
3:30 PM EST
Rotation #349-350
Washington/BYU Over 50.5
BYU didn’t get on the board until 40 seconds were left in the game last year in a 35-7 blowout in Washington. I believe this year will be different because they are at home and the Huskies have a ton of turnover on the defensive side of the football. Both teams have a ton of offensive talent on the field, both QB’s are smart, both teams have good running backs and solid offensive lines. BYU has shown great character the last two weeks and they have the makeup to be able to win close games. If they keep this game close we will see a fantastic ending with maybe an upset. Both teams should score a decent amount of points today. Take the Over.
NCAA Football
7:30 PM EST
Rotation #375-376
Oklahoma State/Texas Over 72.5
Oklahoma State has owned this series as of late so it’s interesting to see why Vegas has Texas as a full touchdown favorite today. Both offensive lines are leap years better than the opposing defensive lines. The offenses should dominate today. Texas has a ton of new faces on defense. There is not much veteran leadership on the defensive side of the ball. This Oklahoma State Offense is going to be tough to stop. Oklahoma State is weak in the front seven on defense and really miss a Calvin Bundage at linebacker. Sam Ehlinger has been flawless this season throwing no interceptions. The Longhorn Offense will have their way. Both teams are going to put up massive amount of points. Don’t worry about the high line. Let the game play out. Take the Over.
NCAA Football
7:00 PM EST
Rotation #385-386
Oregon -10.5 over Stanford
__________________
Bezobets
full Sat.. 13-1-1 lst 15 football..
3* Wash -6 -115
3* Texas A&M -3 -120
3* Georgia -14 -118
2* Michigan +3.5 -115
2* Vandy +14 1H -110
2* Louisville +7 -112
2* App St +3 -116
__________________
DR. CHUCK
Game: (337) BOSTON COLLEGE at (338) RUTGERS
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: BOSTON COLLEGE -7.5 (-108)
View Analysis
I am not so sure Rutgers isn't a paper tiger...and I was one of the ones fooled by this early in the season. We cashed a solid play with them early on against UMass, despite going down big and quick and letting UMass do plenty of work on the offensive end. This line makes little sense even with Chris Ash's boys being the home team. Little travel involved, a home QB that likely is a no go and if he does....limited or far less than 100% at best...and a BC team that isn't all that hard to back even being in the ACC.
Things went off the rails in that hideous loss to Les Miles last Friday night, but it led us to this bargain line, an extra day off to prepare, short travel, and a public that thinks they can fade BC and back Rutgers due to the scoreboard looking slaughter 48-24!
Hit up the Eagles today and watch this game devolve in a 2 or 3 score affair late at home and Rutgers experiencing more of the same...even out of the B1G. Rutgers has allowed 5.2 yards per rush and the BC Eagles will run and run and run all over them much to the chagrin of the defense....and a Rutgers offense and defense both worst at TO differential.
Game: (335) TROY at (336) Akron
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: TROY -17.0 (-110)
View Analysis
The mismatch here is bordering on epic sadly and this is with an away team laying 3 scores. Akron went into the game with CMU last week as the team Vegas saw as the superior team on a neutral field! They were getting merely 2.5 points and lost by 21 points...the Zips were even down 17-0 to the Chippewas before you could even blink! The Trojans are off a shootout loss to Southern Miss...but the offense is solid and Akron is very poor on both ends of the ball...allowing nearly 8 yards per play on defense and having a sub-4.0 yards per play on offense.
If Troy can limit mistakes this is gonna be as ugly as it gets for the poor AKRowdy home crowd!
Game: (379) SMU at (380) TCU
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 28.0 (-110)
View Analysis
TCU record on Unders in this spot is flat out ridiculous 12 for the last 12, and this isn't even a stretch past many seasons or coaches or anything...it is all Gary Patterson and just back to 2016! SMU has started off 3-0 in good fashion and has stuck very close to home for all 3 games so far..even when on the road at Arkansas State. Simultaneousy they have not faced even close to the competition they will get today with the TCU defense...who even shut down the Purdue pass happy spread offense down to just 14 points in West Lafayette.
This will be a plodding start in my opinion and the price for the first half appears to be better than full game at this point....but if you can get full game 56 or higher...get on that as well!
Game: (377) BOWLING GREEN at (378) KENT STATE
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H KENT STATE -7.0 (-105)
View Analysis
Oops...Vegas screwed this line up ....we shall jump on board and back the underrated Kent State and overrated BG and I sure like the TD price for the first half better than the full game...but both should be winners!
Game: (377) BOWLING GREEN at (378) KENT STATE
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: KENT STATE -11.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Game: (313) MIAMI OHIO at (314) OHIO STATE
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: OHIO STATE -38.0 (-108)
View Analysis
Why are we stopping now? Even the Redhawks coach basiclaly said he has not shot here...and really 38 isn't a lot considering the last 2 weeks performances...and he said playing the instate Buckeyes is like allowing the opposing team in gym class to have the first 45 picks!
Game: (347) NEW MEXICO STATE at (348) NEW MEXICO
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 4:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: NEW MEXICO -4.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Digging deep into a slate of games this big is really the most efficient way to make solid dough. Sure I could struggle to pick a side in the Wisky/UM game or the A&M/Auburn game etc. Here is a rivalry game in the state of New Mexico where the game goes far under the radar...but not for us. We backed the SDSU Aztecs last week on the road here facing the Aggies and much like we assumed...it does not appear that NMSU can score no matter who they're playing against. Much more is known at this point about how Bob Davie's team went to face his old squad sans him on the sideline in South Bend last week and got sent back with his tail between his legs for a 50+ point drubbing. (Davie is still likely not back today...not sure it matters against this defense with that offense) They only have Sam Houston State on the schedule thus far and no "official" stats are accumulated for such a game. This leads to New Mexico Lobos sitting at the bottom of the entire country in most all defensive categories...based upon one beating to a team likely CFP bound if they can sneak past Georgia today.
New Mexico shows a 9 yards per play against now and a 66-14 point differential...and while not a stellar team to back by any means...this looks like a cake walk at a crazy discount price. Vegas likely had no clue how to go about getting ANYONE to bet on the Aggies today...so giving them more than a TD in a rivalry game with the Lobos off a debacle (and NMSU just off a mere 31-10 defeat) was a solid and effective way to do it.
We will jump in big at this -4 discount price in a game I have the Lobos winning going away by double digits. The Lobos have a solid offense that can overshadow the detrimental defensive side....dissimilar from NMSU who struggles to score period...but also stop their opponents. NM is 14-6 last 20 after allowing as many passing yards as the Irish put on them...and the Aggies are 1-11 ATS the last 12.
Game: (387) BAYLOR at (388) RICE
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: BAYLOR -26.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Strange that a price this large could be bargain basement pricing....but this is Rice! Baylor doesn't even have to travel much for this debacle of a game and despite the pace of play...this isn't even 4 TDs of a difference. Ohio State is laying 12 more points than this so you can see where the market expects money. Baylor has lost the public betting eye of late post-Briles and we get to take advantage of a game that is like a 38 or 40 point spread here today in Texas!
Game: (315) Charlotte at (316) CLEMSON
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1Q CLEMSON -10.0 (-135)
View Analysis
Just a de facto play here and kind of a shocking price...the Tigers DON'T score twice in the 1st quarter is all we need to be betting against here? Shocking value and price...Trevor and Etienne and that defense should be up 14-0 thru 15 minutes...and I won't be too surprised if it's a 21 point quarter.
Game: (389) San Antonio at (390) NORTH TEXAS
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 58.0 (-110)
Contrast of styles and a total I have a decent amount lower than this...bargain price in an under the radar game....our specialty is focusing on where Vegas has flaws in matchups with lower visibility and likely liability.
__________________
SkyBlue Picks
Michigan +3.5
Appalachian State +3
Old Dominion +27
__________________
King Creole
4* OVER TEMPLE
__________________
Bondi
7* Oregon
4* Missouri
3* Michigan State
3* A & M
__________________
IN GAME TRAP
OVER 58.5 Elon Phoenix vs Wake Forest Deacon Demons
__________________
From Northcoast group of handicappers:
Red Dog Sports
MLB
3* #952 Cubs -125
__________________
Steve Budin
CALI-CARTEL
50 DIME
WINNER # 26 OF 36
24-Point Burial
Washington St -18 1/2
__________________
Al DeMarco
16th Ever
Raise the Bar 20 Dime
College Football Play of my Career
Washington St -18 1/2
__________________
Northcoast
5* Texas A&M
4* Washington St.
4* Tulsa
3* Tennessee
3* Boston College
3* Nebraska
3* Coastal Carolina
__________________
Power Sweep 5 star GOM
Texas A&M -4
__________________
charlie
tennssee +14
wiscon over44
sycurse -4
__________________
VegasSniper
Michigan over 22 1H
__________________
Worlds Worst Picker
His picks:
Wisconsin
California
We take:
Michigan
Mississippi
Bol
__________________
Nfac
SATURDAY 9-21-19 =
UFC : YAIR RODRIGUEZ +100...($600) Pinnacle at +103
UFC : KYLE NELSON -115...($600) via Pinnacle
351) OVER 48.5 COL-ARIZ ST...($800) - BIG MOVE via Bookmaker
398) OVER 57.5 UCLA-WASH ST...($800) - BIG MOVE via Bookmaker
320) PITTSBURGH +11.5...($750) via Pinnacle
329) OLD DOMINION +29...($750) via Cantor
364) VANDERBILT +24.5...($600) via Bookmaker
391) NOTRE DAME +14.5...($500) via Pinnacle
312) UNDER 55 ULM-ISU...($500) via Pinnacle
343) MICHIGAN +3.5...($500) via Westgate
399) UTAH ST -3.5...($600) via Bookmaker
399) UNDER 53 USU-SDSU...($500) via Heritage
384) UNDER 49 SALA-UAB...($500) via Top Bet & Coasts
380) UNDER 55 SMU-TCU...($500) via Pinnacle
377) OVER 62 BG-KENT...($500) via Bookmaker
953) OVER 9 (-120) NYM-CIN...($500) via BetOnline
979) OVER 10.5 (-105) PHI-CLE...($500) via Pinnacle
__________________
Las Vegas Wolf's Moves
September 21, 2019 - 100114071
19-Sep-2019: 367 Auburn und 1 h 23.5(coast has 24)
19-Sep-2019: 301 Tenn und 1h 19
18-Sep-2019: 351 colorado+7.5
17-Sep-2019: 329 ODU +30
16-Sep-2019: 320 Pitt +13. (+13.5 is available at multiple books)
16-Sep-2019: 354 ole Miss ml -123
__________________
Cajun Sports Wire
5.5* Georgia
5* Texas A&M
5* Washington St
__________________
Seabass first report : 400 cal , 400 cubs , 300 Pitt (NCAAF), no limit w Michigan
__________________
Kelso 100 Nebraska
__________________
winningsportsplays
J.R. Stevens
VIP PICKS (CFB - GAME OF THE MONTH)
[491] San Diego State +4/ML +160
VIP PICKS (CFB)
[
[326] Buffalo +15/ML +460
[334] Northwestern +9/ML +300
[339] Western Michigan +5/ML +170
[351] Colorado +8/ML +250
[374] Kansas +5/ML +170
[379] SMU +9/ML +250
VIP PICKS (CFL)
[686] Montreal +3/ML +120
[688] Ottawa +4/ML +150
*Buy half point if necessary
*Play ML for half your normal amount when listed
VIP PICKS (MLB)
[951] St. Louis +120/ALT RL -1.5 (+180)
[957] Pittsburgh +220/ALT RL -1.5 (+330)
[969] Boston +190/ALT RL -1.5 (+315)
[979] Philadelphia +150/ALT RL -1.5 (+230)
__________________
Stephen Oh
UCF -10.5
UCF @ PITTSBURGH | 9/21 | 3:30 PM EDT
Central Florida keeps rolling and keeps getting no respect from bettors. The Knights have been all business this season, beating their opponents 155-41. Meanwhile Pitt is coming off an emotional loss to in-state rival Penn State in a game that went down to the final play and cannot afford any kind of hangover against Central Florida. My model says the Knights cover almost two-thirds of the time, so you're getting solid value with the spread at this price.
12-1 IN LAST 13 CFB PICKS | +1090
2-1 IN LAST 3 PITT ATS PICKS | +90
NORTHWESTERN +8.5
MICHIGAN ST. @ NORTHWESTERN | 9/21 | 12:00 PM EDT
Rarely does my model say that a point spread offers as much value as this one. My model says Northwestern covers almost three-quarters of the time. The Wildcats have beaten Michigan State three straight times, including last year in East Lansing, and are a veteran team that brings back a lot of players who played in last year's Big Ten Championship Game. The Spartans couldn't score at home last week; they won't score enough to cover this week. Take the points.
12-1 IN LAST 13 CFB PICKS | +1090
2-1 IN LAST 3 NWEST ATS PICKS | +80
__________________
+EV: CFB 4u: 346 Colorado State Rams +9 -103 (Saturday, September 21st)
__________________
Executive Sportsline
Sat, Sept 21
10:00
CFB
600%
Arizona St -7'
over Colorado
4:00
CFB
300%
Miss State -6
over Kentucky
10:30
CFB
300%
Utah St -3'
over San Diego St
While Arizona St returns home off their big road win over Michigan St, Colorado takes to the road for the
first time this season. Colorado is coming off an OT loss to Air Force, and the week before they won
in OT vs Nebraska. They've had 3 emotional weeks in a row, as in week one they played instate rival
Colorado St. Both teams in this contest are playing their Pac 12 opener. Arizona St is playing this one
with revenge from last year's 7 point road loss in Coach Herm Edwards first season as the coach.
They are 3-0 on the season and have held each opponent to only 7 points in each game.
Colorado has given up 31, 31, and 30 in their 3 games where they are 2-1 on the season.
COLORADO is 3-12 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 3 seasons.
They are 17-38 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.
ARIZONA ST is 26-9 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games,
and are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after a win by 3 or less points .
ARIZONA ST is 7-3 against the spread versus Colorado, and 5-0 against the spread versus them when at home.
ARIZONA ST GETS REVENGE TONIGHT ... ARIZONA STATE by 17
__________________
SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS
Free Play: West Virginia vs Kansas Over 49
NCAA Football Service Plays
Wisconsin -3 (buy .5) -120 vs Michigan
Louisville vs Florida St Over 61.5
Ole Miss -2.5 vs California
Ohio St -39 vs Miami OH
Clemson -41.5 vs Charlotte
Notre Dame +14.5 vs Georgia
Oregon vs Stanford Over 56.5
Georgia St +3 vs Texas St
Arizona St -8.5 vs Colorado
MLB Service Plays
Cleveland RL -1.5 +110 vs Philly
Oakland RL -1.5 -150 vs Texas
__________________
Sports Bank
lock Baytlor
Strong SMU
__________________
Kenny White
OVER 58 UCLA @ WASHINGTON ST. | 9/21 | 10:30 PM EDT
9:47 AM
UCLA has gone Under in all three of its games, scoring exactly 14 points in each. It is time for the Bruins offense to bust out against Washington State. UCLA will continue to play uptempo, and this could be the least talented defense the Bruins have played so far. Washington State is going to get its points as the Cougars have gone over 50 in two of their three games.
6-1 IN LAST 7 CFB PICKS | +489
NOTRE DAME +14.5
NOTRE DAME @ GEORGIA | 9/21 | 8:00 PM EDT
9:42 AM
Brian Kelly has done a great job at Notre Dame; the Irish are 24-4 the last two-plus years. Kelly is 12-10 ATS vs Top 25 teams the past four years, including 1-3 in 2016 when the team went 4-8 straight up. The Fighting Irish defense starts nine upperclassmen and will stack the box to slow down D'Andre Swift. Georgia is the real deal, but two touchdowns and the hook are to too much to pass up.
5-0 IN LAST 5 CFB ATS PICKS | +500
2-1 IN LAST 3 UGA ATS PICKS | +95
OLD DOMINION +27
OLD DOMINION @ VIRGINIA | 9/21 | 7:00 PM EDT
9:38 AM
This is the Super Bowl for Old Dominion -- well maybe two weeks ago at Virginia Tech might have been -- but this is the second Super Bowl. The Monarchs lost to Virginia Tech by 14 but covered the spread as a 29.5-point underdog. Every player on Old Dominion most likely wanted to play for Virginia when he was growing up but was snubbed by big brother. Virginia is coming off a nice win over Florida State and has Notre Dame on deck. Old Dominion has had two weeks to prepare and are well coach by 10 year vet Bobby Wilder.
5-0 IN LAST 5 CFB ATS PICKS | +500
OVER 61 SAN JOSE ST. @ ARKANSAS | 9/21 | 7:30 PM EDT
9:32 AM
Chad Morris came to Arkansas from SMU promising basketball on grass, meaning an uptempo frenetic pace. Well last week the offense got after it with 55 points, including 21 in the final quarter to pull away from Colorado State. The Hogs offense will bring that momentum into today's game versus a San Jose State team that has a well below average defense but a serviceable offense that also likes to play fast.
6-1 IN LAST 7 CFB PICKS | +489
__________________
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Sep 21 2019 3:30PM
320 Pittsburgh 11.0(-110) William Hill vs 319 UCF single-dime bet
Analysis: Pitt hasn’t left the state of Pennsylvania yet this season. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is throwing the ball a ton this year with back-to-back 300-yard games and remember last year, he didn’t top 200 yards passing in 13 of 14 games! This is a Pitt defense that is much stouter than what UCF faced vs Stanford last week. Keep in mind, UCF has scored at least 30 points in 29 straight games, longest streak in AP Poll era (since 1936). This spread looks a little inflated especially after UCF’s blowout win over Stanford. We like Pitt.
Top 7 Leans of the Day if you need additional action.
(327/328) Central Michigan/MIAMI, FL OVER 48. 4:00pm ET.
(340) SYRACUSE -4.5 over Western Michigan. 12:00pm ET.
(361/362) Kentucky/MISSISSIPPI ST OVER 48. 4:00pm ET.
(364) VANDERBILT +24 over Lsu. 12:00pm ET.
(368) TEXAS A&M -4 over Auburn. 3:30pm ET.
(380) TCU -8 over Smu. 3:30pm ET.
(400) SAN DIEGO ST +4 over Utah St. 10:30pm ET.
__________________
Dr. Chuck
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (979) Philadelphia Phillies at (980) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.5 (-105)
View Analysis
Vargas v. Plesac
Indians are right at the top of the leaderboards in all metrics against LHP at home in September...and draw a walk rate equal to the K rate, which is excellent playing an NL team and having runners on base constantly. In addition the Indians need every win like blood and do not want to let any games slip to an NL team that has underachieved massively. Each team will be able to use a DH, which for the Phillies adds an extra non-pitcher bat to a total that isn't all that higher than normal...likely a Jay Bruce or similar who may be boom or bust but helps with an Over play with one swing.
Vargas coming from the left side should allow his share of runs and Zach Plesac has almost become president of my xFIP fade club plays haha. He still sports a middle-3 ERA and 5.10 xFIP, which over the last 3 starts has actually gone up toward 5.30...he walks too many batters and the Phillies should send their fair share of big lefty bats at the young kid due for a regression more than most any starter still going.
Among other factors, we shall finish with the home plate umpire being the Under fade machine. He has umpired 30 contests and only 7 of those 30 games have gone under the total. Neither of his interleague games went Under the total...and this is up from a very quick opening at 9.5.....at that 9.5 this would have been AT LEAST A 5% PLAY. So do what you will...but the double DH, the pitching matchup that is very hitter friendly and a wind that is blowing slightly out at about a 7mph clip.
__________________
Texas sportswire
5* Central Florida
4* Kentucky
3* Northwestern
__________________
Maddux college FB
10* Louisville +8.5
10* West Virginia/Kansas under 51
20* Michigan +3.5
10* Michigan/Wisconsin under 45.5
10* San Jose State/Arkansas over 57.5
10* Temple/Buffalo under 53
10* UL Monroe/Iowa State under 56.5
10* Appalachian State/North Carolina over 58
10* South Alabama +11
10* Baylor -26.5
10* Wyoming +4.5
10* Oklahoma State +7
10* Washington/BYU under 51.5
10* UCLA/Washington State over 58
10* New Mexico State/New Mexico over 69
__________________
Miller locks
12:00 pm est ncaaf
michigan state vs. Northwestern
pick: Northwestern +8 (-103)
risk: 11 units
12:00 pm est ncaaf
western michigan vs. Syracuse
pick: Syracuse -4.5 (-114)
risk: 11 units
12:00 pm est ncaaf
boston college vs. Rutgers
pick: Boston college -7.5 (-112)
risk: 11 units
3:30 pm est ncaaf
central florida vs. Pittsburgh u
pick: Central florida -10.5 (-101)
risk: 11 units
3:30 pm est ncaaf
washington u vs. Byu
pick: Washington u -6.5 (-113)
risk: 11 units
sorry for the late post been busy at work
__________________
DR CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (953) New York Mets at (954) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Mets -126
View Analysis
Wheeler v. Desclafani
Game: (955) Washington Nationals at (956) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 6:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5 (-170)
View Analysis
Strasburg v. Yamamoto
Yamamoto is coming of the IL to start today at home facing the Nats...clinging to life in the playoff hunt which currently sits them in a tiebreaker game to get to the one game wild card game. The latter is unavoidable as the Braves have clinched the division.
What more could you want than the Nats offense who has been solid and hitting RHP well, Strasburg on the mound to kick some ass, and an opposing starter who was extremely fade worthy prior to hitting the injured list.
The price is sadly huge and I am disappointed not to have done better with the price and the fact it is a Run line at that...but there is a reason...Vegas is lazy but sometimes they are right...and tonight the price is right!
Game: (979) Philadelphia Phillies at (980) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.5 (-105)
View Analysis
Vargas v. Plesac
Indians are right at the top of the leaderboards in all metrics against LHP at home in September...and draw a walk rate equal to the K rate, which is excellent playing an NL team and having runners on base constantly. In addition the Indians need every win like blood and do not want to let any games slip to an NL team that has underachieved massively. Each team will be able to use a DH, which for the Phillies adds an extra non-pitcher bat to a total that isn't all that higher than normal...likely a Jay Bruce or similar who may be boom or bust but helps with an Over play with one swing.
Vargas coming from the left side should allow his share of runs and Zach Plesac has almost become president of my xFIP fade club plays haha. He still sports a middle-3 ERA and 5.10 xFIP, which over the last 3 starts has actually gone up toward 5.30...he walks too many batters and the Phillies should send their fair share of big lefty bats at the young kid due for a regression more than most any starter still going.
Among other factors, we shall finish with the home plate umpire being the Under fade machine. He has umpired 30 contests and only 7 of those 30 games have gone under the total. Neither of his interleague games went Under the total...and this is up from a very quick opening at 9.5.....at that 9.5 this would have been AT LEAST A 5% PLAY. So do what you will...but the double DH, the pitching matchup that is very hitter friendly and a wind that is blowing slightly out at about a 7mph clip.
__________________