NFL Betting News & Match-Ups For Week 3

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

After last week's piece shifted the focus to the collegiate game, it's back to discussing NFL action this week now that we've got essentially two full weeks under our belt. The Browns and Jets still have to do battle tonight, and some could say that Jets QB Sam Darnold and his mono diagnosis kicked off a brutal week for QB injuries. ON Sunday we saw Saints QB Drew Brees get knocked out of the game with a thumb injury that will have him on the shelf for multiple weeks, and Pittsburgh's QB Ben Roethlisberger is now lost for the year with elbow concerns.

With Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement at the end of August, it's been an ever-changing landscape at the QB position so far in the NFL, and chances are it won't end there. The Giants and Dolphins have legitimate questions to ask themselves about who will be their starter for the bulk of the season, and a team like Washington is starting to inch closer to that boat as well.

QB issues aside, Week 3 is always an interesting one as we've now come and gone through Opening Week and Overreaction Week in the betting market, and more data points are out there to use as support. Team identities are starting to get firmer – if their QB has stayed healthy – and for some, it's about potentially preventing their season from going off the rails after a rough start.

It's that notion that I've isolated for this week, as Week 3 brings some of their own interesting betting opportunities for NFL teams that have been money burners (0-2 ATS) or money earners (2-0 ATS) so far. The market has seen (or been burnt) by these teams inability to cash betting tickets, and that in itself can create market disparities in terms of the perception and reality of how good a certain team may actually be.

So it's “perfect” ATS teams in the NFL that are travelling in Week 3 that have become the focus this week. While two of the winless squads – New Orleans and Pittsburgh – have new QB's starting in Week 3 and may be taken much more lightly or even omitted from this following group, the changes at QB are likely to create an even bigger gap in terms of the perception of those squads.

But here are the situations to keep in mind as you go through the week breaking down the board:

Who's Hot

Back the Money Burners on the road
NFL teams that are 0-2 ATS and are playing on the road in Week 3 are 9-3 ATS the past three seasons

This trend seems to be a strong one over the past three years and it's done well in each individual year as well, as the record sits at 7-2 ATS the past two years, and it was 4-1 ATS in 2018. On the surface, a trend like this does make some sense in the idea that 0-2 ATS squads can be a little undervalued after being money burners (for a variety of reasons) through two weeks. Bettors maybe haven't like what they've seen from these squads, have been burned by them for a big wager, last leg of a parlay etc, and or just don't believe they are a capable or competitive team that season. This year we've got six (potentially seven) different teams fitting this role too.

The list of teams that are 0-2 ATS and on the road in Week 3 are Carolina, Chicago, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Miami, the New York Giants and possibly the New York Jets should they fail against the number on MNF. All of those squads do fit different aspects of the reasons behind having yet to cover a spread, and having already discussed the situations that face New Orleans and Pittsburgh this week, I won't go more in-depth on them. But chances are both will be a little undervalued – especially compared to what they could have been with Brees and Roethlisberger under center – and may be worth a look once point spreads are established.

Miami and the Giants definitely fit the bill of being teams that aren't likely to be all that competitive this year, as they've shown nothing to have bettors believe putting their hard earned money down on them is worth the risk. The Giants are currently catching +6.5 points nearly everywhere as they head down to Tampa Bay to face a well-rested Bucs team, while Miami's going to Dallas and currently catching three TD's. I can't imagine either of those sides being all that popular as the week goes on, but points are points and they might actually be catching a few more then they should be given the overall perception of the organizations. Week 3 has proven in the past that some level of professional pride tends to kick in for these slumping squads, and I would venture a guess that at least one of the Giants or Miami ends up cashing an ATS ticket this week.

The remaining two teams that are for sure on this list are Chicago and Carolina, and each are road chalk in Washington and Arizona respectively. Laying points with these “money burners” may look tough to do for some, but it again speaks to the idea that they may actually be a little undervalued right now because of that 0-2 ATS start. The Bears and Panthers are both hovering around laying a FG against their respective opponents, and you can't help but wonder if they were 1-1 ATS already, would these spreads be a point or two higher. That's a question you should keep in mind throughout the week, as if Arizona and Washington find themselves turning into 'public home dogs', it might be best to expect the Panthers and Bears to get into that ATS winner's circle.

Who's Not

Fade the Money Earners
2-0 ATS teams that are on the road in Week 3 are 3-9 ATS the past three seasons

This run is quite the opposite idea of things when you sit down and think about it, as these perfect ATS teams that go out on the road – sometimes for the first time that year – tend to be thought too highly of in terms of either the number that exists out there and/or the perception in terms of generating a strong majority of support from the market. It's been a great two opening weeks for these teams and bettors – the majority of whom love to ride streaks – have no problem backing the hot hand because that's what's worked so far.

So whether or not these lines are actually inflated or not to the side of these perfect ATS road teams can be debated, but just because something has worked twice so far, doesn't mean it will continue to work going forward. That's such a reactive way to handicap in my opinion and being proactive - whether it's getting action down early in the week, finding more predictive numbers/stats to base opinions on etc – will tend to bring you more success.

This year, we've only got one team that fits that role, and it's the LA Rams on SNF as they travel to Cleveland to face the Browns. Depending on how Cleveland performs tonight will have plenty to do with the number that comes out – especially if Cleveland stinks up the joint again and/or loses to a Jets team without their starting QB.

But for a market who was all about backing the Saints this past week with their revenge narrative against the Rams, LA's performance in that game – even with Brees getting hurt – had to increase their stock in the eyes of many, especially those who had the Saints this weekend, and should the Browns lose tonight on MNF, without question an early flurry of Rams money is likely to flood in. That scenario would set up a situation where we'd have a 2-0 ATS Rams team visiting an 0-2 ATS Browns team, and 0-2 ATS teams at home in Week 3 are 5-3 ATS the past two seasons.

It may be then that we see all this Browns love we've seen and heard about in the market for months finally come to fruition, but regardless of what happens on MNF tonight, I'd be hesitant to pull the trigger on the defending NFC Champions next week.

Broncos (0-2) @ Packers (2-0)— Broncos lost first two games, outscored 20-3 in first half; Denver is only the 4th team in last 50 years to have no sacks or takeaways in their first two games. Since 2012, Broncos are 6-12 ATS as a road underdog. Denver has two TDs, six FG tries in first two games; they’ve scored only 27 points in seven trips to red zone. Green Bay won two division games to begin season, allowing two TD’s on 26 drives, but Packers have scored only one FG in second half- they didn’t score at all after 2nd drive of game LW. Packers are 21-12-2 ATS in last 35 games as a home favorite. Home team is 11-1-1 in this series; Denver lost last four visits here, with three losses by 26+ points.

Lions (1-0-1) @ Eagles (1-1)— Detroit blew 24-6 4th quarter lead in tying its opener, then upset Chargers 13-10 LW, picking off Rivers pass in end zone with 1:03 left. Since ’12, Lions are 16-20 ATS as road underdogs- they’re 8-12 in last 20 games as non-division road dogs. Eagles split their first two games, giving up 8.0/7.0 yards/pass attempt. Philly converted 20-35 third down plays- they trailed both games at halftime; Iggles won field position by 7-16 yards. Eagle opponents threw 88 passes, ran ball only 30 times in first two games. Philly covered twice in last nine games as a home favorite. Detroit won three of last four series games, but lost five of last six visits here (last here in ’13).

Ravens (2-0) @ Chiefs (2-0)— Baltimore won its first two games, running ball for 447 yards (QB Jackson ran for 120 yards vs Arizona LW); they’ve converted 14-25 on 3rd down, haven’t turned ball over (+3). Ravens are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog. Chiefs scored eight TD’s on 19 drives in their first two games, averaging 11.1/9.4 yds/pass attempt; they’ve had 15 plays already of 20+ yards. KC is 9-6 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite; they covered only twice in last eight home openers. Chiefs won last two series games (34-14/27-24 OT) but Ravens won three of last four visits here.

Bengals (0-2) @ Bills (2-0)— Buffalo won four of last five series games, four of which were decided by 4 or fewer points. Cincy covered seven of last nine games as road underdogs; they lost first two games this year, scoring only 16 points in six trips to red zone. Bengals ran ball only 33 times, threw it 93 times in Taylor’s first two games as HC. Buffalo won its first two games, both in Swamp; Bills are 10-5-1 in last 16 games as a HF, but since ’05, Week 3 HF’s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS. Buffalo had decent balance in its first two games, running for 279 yards, throwing for 479, converting 10-23 on third down.

Falcons (1-1) @ Colts (1-1)— Colts split their first two road games, converting 14-27 third down plays, running ball for 370 yards; Brissett completed 69.1% of his passes, at 6.1 yards/attempt. Last two years, Indy is 5-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. Colts are 11-5 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC teams. Atlanta split first two games, turning ball over six times (-3), running ball only 34 times while throwing 89 times. Falcons are 0-10 ATS in last 10 games vs AFC foes, 1-7 ATS in last eight games as road underdogs; Atlanta lost three of four visits here, winning last one 31-7 in 2011. Falcons are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games outside NFC South.

Raiders (1-1) @ Vikings (1-1)— Minnesota covered 15 of last 20 games vs AFC opponents; they’re 20-5-1 ATS in last 26 games as a HF. Vikings ran ball for 370 yards in splitting first two games, but completed only 14-32 passes in loss at Lambeau LW. Oakland doesn’t play at home again until Nov 3; Raiders split two division home games, converting 16-28 on 3rd down. Last two years, Oakland is 3-12-1 ATS as road underdogs, 5-12-3 ATS overall outside AFC West- they’re 0-5 ATS in last five games on artificial turf. Oakland covered its last six road openers. Raiders won three of last four visits here; they’re 10-5 overall vs Vikings. Oakland gets G Incognito back from suspension, which helps their OL.

Jets (0-2) @ Patriots (2-0)— Patriots won six in row, 14 of last 16 games vs NYJ, winning last eight meetings here, last three by total of 105-12. NE covered 12 of last 14 games as a home favorite; they won first two games this year by combined 76-3. Patriots covered 15 of last 18 games when laying double digits- they haven’t allowed a TD yet this year, giving up one FG on 22 drives. Falk gets first NFL start here; he was 20-25/198 in his NFL debut vs Cleveland Monday; he was a 3-year starter in Pac-12, throwing 119 TD’s, 39 INT’s in three years at Wazzu. Gang Green has one TD on 22 drives this year, converting 9-31 on third down. Jets are 6-12-2 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.

Dolphins (0-2) @ Cowboys (2-0)— Miami traded DB Fitzpatrick to Steelers Monday, as exodus of Dolphins’ good players continues. Miami was outscored 102-10 in first two games, just like the ’73 Saints, who rallied to finish year 5-9. Dolphins have seven turnovers (-6), 10 3/outs on 23 drives, and were outscored 47-0 in 2nd half of games. Cowboys have to avoid overconfidence after pair of NFC East wins; Dallas scored 35-31 points in first two games, converting 13-21 on third down, scoring nine TD’s on 17 drives. Miami covered its last four road openers; over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS. Dallas won last three series meetings, by 17-1-10 points; Miami is 5-3 SU in visits here.

Giants (0-2) @ Buccaneers (1-1)— Rookie QB Jones gets first NFL start here; how he does is anyone’s guess. Giants have no takeaways yet (-4), allowed 12.7/7.2 yards/pass attempt in first two losses, by 18-14 points (NYG scored first in both games). Opponents have six TD’s on six trips to red zone. Big Blue covered eight of last nine games as a road dog outside the NFC East. Tampa Bay had extra rest after a Thursday win LW; since 2014, Buccaneers are 4-14 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last two meetings, that were decided by total of five points. Giants won six of last seven series games, winning three of last four visits here. Line jumped 2.5 points wth rookie Jones announced as Giants’ QB.

Panthers (0-2) @ Cardinals (0-1-1)— Cam Newton (foot) is a ??mark here; his backup is Kyle Allen, who won his only start 33-14 in Week 17 LY vs New Orleans (16-27/228 yards). Carolina is 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 road games; they won last three games vs Arizona but lost 28-21/22-6 in last two visits here- home side won last six series games. Cardinals were outscored 34-6 in first half in their two games (0-1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS); they’re 14-18-1 ATS in last 33 home games. NFC West teams covered seven of first eight games this season; NFC South teams are 1-5 ATS outside their division. Over last 20 years, Week 3 road teams who lost their first two games at home are 4-6-1 ATS.

Steelers (0-2) @ 49ers (2-0)— Rudolph makes first NFL start; he was on Pitt’s bench LY, so he knows the system— he was a 3-year starter at Oklahoma State, was 12-19/112 vs Seattle LW, throwing two TD’s. Steeler defense gets boost, acquiring DB Fitzpatrick Monday; he’ll start here, but Pitt is 0-2 for first time since 2013 (started 0-4, ended up 8-8). Steelers covered five of last six tries as a road dog. 49ers opened with two road wins; they’re 4-11 ATS in last 15 tries as home favorites. Home side won last four series games; Steelers lost three of last four trips to SF. Niners covered seven of last nine games vs AFC teams. Since ’05, Week 3 HF’s who played their first two games on road are 6-22-2 ATS.

Saints (1-1) @ Seahawks (2-0)— Brees has missed only three games since 2006, so this is huge change for Saints; Bridgewater was 17-11 starting for Minnesota in 2014-15- he was 17-30/165 in relief LW in 27-9 loss to Rams. NO is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog. How they adjust their offense with Brees out will be interesting to see; will they use #3 QB Hill and run the option a little? Saints ran ball for only 57 yards LW. Seahawks are 4-8-1 in last 13 games as a home favorite; they’ve scored four TD’s in four trips to red zone this year. Seattle won three of last four series games; 2 of the 3 wins were in playoffs. Saints lost last three visits here, by 5-27-8 points. Seattle is 8-3-2 ATS in its last 13 non-division games.

Texans (1-1) @ Chargers (1-1)— Houston split its first two games- they were decided by total of 3 points; Texans covered four of last five tries as a road underdog, are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Houston hasn’t allowed a first half TD yet; they converted 13 of 28 3rd down plays. Banged-up Chargers won opener in OT, then threw INT in end zone with 1:03 left in 13-10 loss at Detroit LW. Bolts are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite in Carson; they scored only 20 points in six visits to red zone this year. Chargers won five of last six series games; last meeting was in ’16. This is Texans’ first visit here since ’13. Texans covered seven of last nine as a road dog outside their division.

Rams (2-0) @ Browns (1-1)— LA won first two games, not allowing first half TD;; this is second week in row Rams are playing team coming off a Monday night win, third week in row Rams are favored by 3 or fewer points- they’re 6-7 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less. Under McVay, LA is 8-5 ATS as a road favorite. Cleveland split pair of routs to start season; they’re only 5-23 on 3rd down so far, but hit an 89-yard TD to Beckham Monday night. Browns are 7-15-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home underdog. Rams won four of last five series games, winning 26-20/13-12 in last two visits here (last here in ’11). NFC West teams were 7-1 ATS in Weeks 1-2.

Bears (1-1) @ Redskins (0-2)— Chicago scored only one TD on 21 drives in its first two games, converting 6-26 on 3rd down; Bears got a 54-yard FG at the gun LW for its first win, temporarily ending their kicking dilemma. Last 5+ years, Bears are 3-4 as road favorites. Redskins allowed 32-31 points in losing pair of division games; they allowed 7.8/8.4 yards/pass attempt, giving up three TD plays of 50+ yards. Skins are 5-7 ATS in last dozen tries as a home underdog. Washington won last seven series games, with five of seven by 4 or fewer points. Bears lost last three visits here, by 2-8-5 points (last visit here in ’13). Skins covered nine of last 12 non-division games.

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 3 odds: Catch the Chiefs below the key number
Jason Logan

If you aren’t sold on the Ravens running up the score and think the Chiefs are worth your pocket change, hit the home side under the key number of seven right now.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

Week 3 gives us a clearer picture of who teams really are but there’s not enough out there to point the finger with confidence. That makes getting down on the best spread and total for your opinion even more important. Here goes Week 3...

SPREAD TO BET NOW: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6.5

NFL bettors get a great game in the 1 pm E.T. slot in Week 3 with the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs butting heads in a battle of offenses ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in average yards, respectively. However, Baltimore’s results should be treated like a king cobra: respect what it can do, but don’t trust it.

The Ravens ransacked the boxscore in matchups with Miami and Arizona – two teams that sat at the bottom of the NFL season win totals board this summer. Baltimore’s defense could be exposed against this elite K.C. offense. The Ravens gave Arizona only 22 minutes with the football last Sunday and rookie passer Kyler Murray produced 349 yards passing and 17 points in that short frame. Baltimore is allowing 5.4 yards per play through two weeks, yet ranks second in yards allowed per game. Hmmmm.

Kansas City is in Arrowhead for the first time this season after two solid road showings. The Chiefs blasted Oakland in Week 2 after putting 40 on the Jacksonville Jaguars (who lost their starting QB in the middle of the game) in Week 1. While those opponents/circumstances are almost as soft as the Ravens’ slate, Kansas City did do so away from home and will have a sizable edge in the homer opener Sunday, especially when it comes to crowd noise versus Lamar Jackson and this wheelin’-dealin’ Baltimore attack.

If you aren’t sold on the Ravens running up the score and think the Chiefs are worth your pocket change, hit the home side under the key number of seven right now. Plenty of books have already moved to -7 so getting the fave at -6.5 could be vital in what should be a really fun game.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: MIAMI DOLPHINS +21.5

There’s a point in every bad team’s season in which the betting markets over-correct so much, it actually makes a bad bet a good one. And for a team as bad as the Dolphins, that tipping point could be as early as Week 3.

The math is simple: one team heading down, losing its first two games by a combined 92 points, and tanking like Zion Williamson is waiting on the other side. The other team is 2-0, putting up the second-most yardage in the NFL, and one of the most popular franchises (and bets) in all of sports. Mix it up in a bowl with a dash of early sharp money, and you get a spread moving from as low as -15.5 to -21.5 on the home side.

For those not tempted by more than three touchdowns worth of cushion, know this: Dallas has played two terrible football teams (New York and Washington) in the opening weeks of the season, so tread lightly with those big numbers. And in both of those games, there were moments in which the Cowboys took their foot off the gas and made bettors a little uncomfortable (trust me I know. I’m a Dallas fan). The team surrendered 10 points in the second half to the Giants (seven in the fourth) and allowed the Redskins to score 14 in the second half (seven in the final frame). Those types of let-ups are the nightmares backdoor covers are made out of.

If you’re on the fence about the Dolphins, just let the media puff up the Cowboys and bash the Fins (especially now that they’re trading away top young players) this week. Come Sunday, you could be looking at even more points.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 44.5 NEW ORLEANS AT SEATTLE

How much is Drew Brees worth to the Saints’ odds? Well, the lookahead had New Orleans getting a point in Seattle with a total of 50 before Brees was ruled out for the next six weeks with a thumb injury. So, do the math lazy.

Losing Brees is crushing but the Saints are somewhat set up to absorb that injury better than most teams. Backup Teddy Bridgewater has experience and shared plenty of reps with dynamic QB Taysom Hill in the preseason. That switch does shorten the New Orleans attack, but it doesn’t completely pull the plug.

The Seahawks offense went back to the basics in Week 2, running the football 33 times and chewing up almost 36 minutes in time of possession in a win over Pittsburgh. Last season, the Seahawks loved to pound the turf at CenturyLink, averaging 175.5 yards on the ground per home game (almost 39 yards more than on the road) with nearly six more handoffs as a host.

This game is also in Seattle, where people still put weight into this home-field edge. I will say, the crowd noise could give the Saints’ backups some issues on snap counts and audibles and rain is also in the forecast for Sunday, so yeah… it’s Seattle.

If you project a low-scoring finish in the wake of the Brees injury, then have at it. This total will likely tick down before the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. But watch for sharp buy back on the Over. Plug this Over/Under into your Covers Live App and let the line alerts do the heavy lifting.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 48 HOUSTON AT L.A. CHARGERS

These teams combined for a grand total of just 23 points in Week 2, with Houston just getting past Jacksonville 13-12 and Los Angeles falling 13-10 at Detroit. That’s ticked this total down from 49 points to as low as 47.5 at some books.

Those early Under bettors have been quick to downgrade two very strong offensive teams that ran into solid defenses and played in tough situational spots last Sunday. I try to keep my own wagers out of the way with these “Bet Now/Later” articles, but I like the Over in this Week 3 matchup and love seeing the total go the other way.

Houston has a loaded receiving corps and showed that on Monday Night Football in Week 1, and now that group gets to snack on a bunch of rusty lawn chairs – or whatever secondary the Bolts have left after getting chewed up by the injury bugs. Unfortunately for the Texans, their defense is not so loaded, giving up key plays and big gains to both Brees in the opener and rookie QB Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars last week.

The L.A. offense (which sits fourth in yards per game) left a ton of points on the table in Motown, with two touchdowns called back on penalties, a goal-line fumble, an interception in the end zone and two missed field goals. We’ve seen the Chargers do this exact thing in the past, only to rebound with a strong scoring effort the following week.

If you’re like me and love the Over, be patient and let this continue to creep down. Injury reports on Thursday and Friday won’t paint a pretty picture for the Bolts pass defense, so you might want to snap up the Over on the lowest number you can get before then. Good luck.

By: Josh Inglis

I WAS BORN A SCRAMBLING MAN

Daniel Jones will take control of the Giants offense this Sunday in Tampa Bay. Mr. Jones will have the services of receiver Sterling Shepard after the wideout cleared concussion protocol this week. It couldn’t have come at a better time as the Buccaneers actually have the league's best DVOA rushing defense — allowing 2.7 yards per carry to opposing backs.

There is no doubt that Jones will be asked to throw a lot, especially if the G-men fall behind. If you think this is the part where we tell you to play the Over on his passing yards, you are mistaken.

We are expecting the rookie to have trouble going through his progressions and tuck and run. At Duke, Jones rushed the ball over 400 times in 36 games and accumulated more than 1300 yards, so we know the first-rounder is familiar with scrambling. It may be a hard market to find, but we are going to seek and destroy the Over on any total below 16-20 rushing yards.

FREEMAN DAYS

The Indianapolis Colts may be without their defensive captain and All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. The 2018 league leader in tackles is still in concussion protocol and is in danger of missing Sunday’s game versus the Atlanta Falcons.

This is great news for Falcons back Devonta Freeman. Freeman hasn’t done much on the ground, averaging just 41 yards on 19 totes but has seen at least four targets in each game resulting in six catches for 54 yards. Freeman saw his snap count rise to over 60 percent last week and he will benefit the most by not having the game’s best linebacker on him in coverage.

Take the Over 2.5 receptions for Freeman and if the line rises closer to kickoff and you miss the 2.5, feel safe grabbing the 3.5 as well.

THE END OF A LEGEND

Adam Vinatieri deserves a lot of respect for what he has accomplished in his 24-year NFL career. Perhaps that’s why the Indianapolis Colts kicker still has a job heading into Week 3 after beginning his 2019 season 1-for-3 while missing three-of-five extra points. The writing is on the wall as Indy held kicking tryouts for six different kickers earlier this week.

We don’t see a fairy-tale ending for Vinatieri and are going to fade him in a game that he probably knows could be his last NFL match. If the Colts don’t have faith in going for three, look for them to have a higher probability of going for it on 4th-down instead. Take the Colts Under 1.5 total field goals (+100).

ALLEN’S PASSING: TAKE THREE

Here is your weekly reminder that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is more than just a set of legs. Allen has eclipsed his passing totals in both games this year as his Week 1 and 2 totals were both set around 210 yards. This week will be tougher sledding with the O/U on Allen’s passing total set at 230.5 yards. Good thing for Allen and the Bills, the Cincinnati Bengals are coming to town for the home opener as the Bills look to go 3-0.

The Bengals are averaging more passing yards per game than the Dallas Cowboys, meaning that Cincy won’t roll over and die, keeping Allen in passing mode. Things aren’t as pretty on the other side of the ball for the Bengals as they are third-worst in total defensive DVOA. We are looking to make it 3-0 on the Over on Allen's passing yard and taking the Over 230.5 as the Bills QB has surpassed 250 yards in both games this year.

BRIDGE IS OUT

We are throwing a first-time prop bet for anyone looking to cheer three-and-outs — there are dozens of us!

Teddy Bridgewater will have nearly a full week to prepare for his first start in a meaningful game since January 2016. The New Orleans Saints new No. 1 QB did not look impressive last Sunday versus the Rams and it wouldn’t surprise us if No. 3 Taysom Hill sees a handful of plays under center.

Game Planning against Teddy & Co. are the Seattle Seahawks who will welcome the Saints to the loudest stadium in the league. The Seahawks have a sneaky good defense as they sit in the top-half in total defense DVOA — 13th in the pass and 9th in the run. The Saints also don’t match up well against the run-heavy Hawks as NO has the worst-ranked DVOA run defense and will be without starting linebacker Alex Anzalone.

With wind and rain in the forecast, we expect Bridgwater to struggle to move the offense in a tough environment. Take the Saints as the team with most punts (-125)

Sunday Blitz - Week 3
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens at Chiefs (-5 ½, 52) – 1:00 PM EST

Four AFC teams enter Week 3 with 2-0 records as two of those squads hook up at Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) has jumped out quickly in spite of beating Miami and Arizona, but quarterback Lamar Jackson has exploded for 596 passing yards and seven touchdowns in the two wins. After routing the Dolphins in the opener, the Ravens failed to cover as 13-point favorites in last Sunday’s 23-17 victory over the Cardinals. Baltimore covered in all three opportunities as a road underdog with Jackson starting in 2018, including outright victories over the Chargers and Falcons.

Kansas City (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) scored all 28 of its points in the second quarter of last Sunday’s 28-10 triumph at Oakland to cash as seven-point favorites. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t dropped off since his MVP performance of 2018 by throwing for 443 yards and four touchdowns against the Raiders. The Chiefs didn’t put up a point in the second half at Oakland, but Kansas City improved to 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.

These teams played one of the top games in 2018 as the Chiefs held off the Ravens in overtime, 27-24 in Week 14. The third game in which Jackson and Baltimore covered in the road ‘dog role came at Arrowhead Stadium as 6 ½-point ‘dogs, while the Ravens rushed for nearly 200 yards. Mahomes posted 377 yards through the air, including the game-tying touchdown pass in the final minute. Kansas City closed last season by compiling a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite, including the AFC title game loss to New England.

Best Bet: Chiefs 31, Ravens 20

Saints at Seahawks (-4 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Several teams are down their starting quarterback in Week 3, including New Orleans (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS), who begins the next six-week stretch without Drew Brees. The future Hall-of-Famer sustained a thumb injury in a 27-9 setback to the Rams in an NFC championship rematch as two-point underdogs. Veteran backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for 165 yards in relief, but the Saints dropped to 0-7 ATS the last seven games (including playoffs) dating back to Week 15 of 2018.

The Seahawks (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) held off the Steelers as four-point road underdogs in Week 2 to pick up a rare September road win, 24-20. Seattle had failed to win its previous five road season openers, while posting an 0-5 ATS mark in the past five Week 2 contests. However, Russell Wilson led the Seahawks on four touchdown drives, including three touchdown passes. Seattle’s rushing offense was silenced in Week 1 against Cincinnati, but the Seahawks ran all over the Steelers’ defense for 151 yards.

Seattle has won 15 consecutive September home games dating back to 2010, while Wilson and head coach Pete Carroll have never lost an opening month contest at CenturyLink Field. The Saints are trying to avoid consecutive losses for the first time since dropping the first two games of the 2017 season. New Orleans has lost in its past three visits to the Pacific Northwest, but the Saints won the previous matchup in 2016 at the Superdome, 25-20.

Best Bet: Seahawks 21, Saints 16

Texans at Chargers (-3, 48 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Both Houston and Los Angeles reached the postseason in 2018, as the two squads look to take that next step towards the Super Bowl in 2019. The Texans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) rebounded from a last-minute heartbreaking loss to the Saints in Week 1 to edge the division rival Jaguars, 13-12 last Sunday. Houston failed to cash as 7 ½-point favorites even though the defense held Jacksonville out of the end zone for 59 minutes. The Jaguars crept to within one point with a touchdown in the final minute, but Houston stuffed Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette at the one-yard line on a two-point conversion to preserve the win.

The Chargers (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS) staved off the Colts in overtime in the season opener, but couldn’t score points at crucial times in last Sunday’s 13-10 setback at Detroit. Los Angeles lost a fumble at the goal-line and missed a pair of field goals, while quarterback Philip Rivers was intercepted on the final drive as the Chargers equaled their road loss total from 2018 in the defeat to the Lions. The Lightning Bolts have started strong this season, but have scored a total of seven points in the third and fourth quarters in two games.

Los Angeles has put together a pedestrian 2-5-1 ATS mark in its last eight home contests, while only two of those victories came by seven points or more. Houston has drilled the OVER in four consecutive road games since last season, as the Texans have scored 28 points or more in the past three contests away from NRG Stadium. The Chargers are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in six meetings with the Texans since Houston entered the league in 2002, including a 21-13 victory in 2016 in the Lone Star State.

Best Bet: Texans 27, Chargers 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY (1-0 last week, 1-1 this season)

Over 43 ½ - Bengals at Bills
Cincinnati was blown out last week at home by San Francisco, 41-17, as the Bengals look for a better performance. The Bills play their home opener following consecutive road wins over the Jets and Giants, as both offenses have been terrible this season. The Bengals have thrown the ball plenty in two weeks, as their running game has been horrific. Buffalo has hit the OVER in four of its last five home games, while Cincinnati is 5-2 to the OVER in its last seven road contests started by Andy Dalton.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Packers are in a tough scheduling spot this week following close wins over division foes Chicago and Minnesota. Green Bay welcomes in 0-2 Denver, who is off a tough last-second loss to the Bears last week. The Packers turn around Thursday to face off with Philadelphia at home in an NFC showdown as this non-conference affair Green Bay may not be as sharp for. Green Bay is listed as seven-point favorites, as the Packers compiled a 2-4 ATS mark in the role of home favorites of six points or more in 2018.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Carolina opened up as 2 ½-point road favorites at Arizona, but after the news came down on Friday that quarterback Cam Newton would sit out with a foot injury, the Cardinals flipped to a two-point favorite. The Panthers turn to Kyle Allen, who is making his second career start for Carolina, who owns an 8-4 ATS mark as a road underdog since 2016. The Cardinals failed to win in two opportunities as a favorite last season, while Arizona has allowed over 450 yards in each of its first two games.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

The Steelers turn to Mason Rudolph as their starting quarterback for likely the rest of 2018 after Ben Roethlisberger suffered a season-ending elbow injury in last week’s loss to Seattle. Pittsburgh has not won a road game without Big Ben as its starting quarterback since a 2015 Monday night victory over the Chargers on a last-second touchdown by Le’Veon Bell. Pittsburgh’s signal-caller that evening in San Diego was none other than Michael Vick.

Total Talk - Week 3
Joe Williams

We're on our way to Week 3 of the National Football League season already. Time flies during football season, as the regular season is already 11.7 percent completed already.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 2 3-13 4-11-1 7-9

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 10-22 10-21-1 18-14

The under was an impressive 13-3 in Week 2, while hitting in 20 of 32 games (63.0 percent). Bettors banging first-half unders have also prospered this season to a 21-10-1 record while individuals chasing the high side in the second-half have managed to trim off some of their losses.

If we get a repeat of Week 3 in 2018, we'll get a lot more lower-scoring results as the under went 12-2-2 last season in Week 3.

Division Bell

The divisional battles saw the 'under' cash in six of seven battles, with only the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins (46 ½) going over the mark. Through two weeks divisional games have seen the 'under' connect in nine of 12 outings, and games involving the Cowboys and Redskins have each hit the 'over' in both weekends.

Divisional Game Results Week 2

Tampa Bay at Carolina Under (48) Tampa Bay 20, Carolina 14
Indianapolis at Tennessee Under (43.5) Indianapolis 19, Tennessee 17
New England at Miami Under (48.5) New England 43, Miami 0
Dallas at Washington Over (46.5) Dallas 31, Washington 21
Minnesota at Green Bay Under (43) Green Bay 21, Minnesota 16
Jacksonville at Houston Under (43) Houston 13, Jacksonville 12
Kansas City at Oakland Under (53) Kansas City 28, Oakland 10

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 3 as of Saturday morning.

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 48 to 43
New Orleans at Seattle: 50 to 45
Detroit at Philadelphia: 49 ½ to 45 ½
Cincinnati at Buffalo: 40 ½ to 44
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: 51 to 47 ½
Pittsburgh at San Francisco: 46 ½ to 44

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 3 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

Carolina at Arizona: Over 85%
New Orleans at Seattle: Under 85%
Baltimore at Kansas City: Over 83%
Cincinnati at Buffalo: Over 80%
L.A. Rams at Cleveland: Under 77%
Atlanta at Indianapolis: Over 76%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (76 percent) in the N.Y. Giants-Tampa Bay matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Chicago-Washington (68 percent) battle on Monday night.

Handicapping Week 3

Week 2 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 1-6
NFC vs. NFC 0-2
AFC vs. AFC 0-1
AFC vs. NFC 2-4

Week 3 is already off to a slow start, as the Tennessee-Jacksonville matchup on Thursday night was low scoring, as the 'under' is now 7-1 through eight primetime battles.

Taking a look at the only remaining divisional battle for Week 3, here are some important trends to note:

N.Y. Jets at New England: The Jets lost their starting quarterback Sam Darnold for Week 2, as he is dealing with a bout of mononucleosis. He is targeting Week 5 for a return. Backup QB Trevor Siemian was supposed to keep the seat warm until Darnold was ready, but QB Luke Falk was thrust into action when Siemian suffered torn ligaments and a season-ending ankle injury on Monday night. Now, it's Falk with newly signed QB David Fales as the backup. Wow.

Of course, the big news for the Patriots was the release of wide receiver Antonio Brown on Friday. As such, the total has been on the move in this game, going from an open of 48 to 43 ½ as of Saturday morning. The 'under' is 6-2 in the past eight games inside the AFC East for the Jets, while going 4-1 in the past five on the road against teams with a winning record. For the Patriots, the under is 7-1 in the past eight inside the division, including last week's lambasting of the Dolphins in Miami, 43-0. The under is also 11-3 in the past 14 overall for the Pats. In this series, the under has cashed in six in a row, too, with the Jets averaging just 9.8 PPG. They're starting their third-string QB, and third signal caller in three games, so don't expect much better production.

Other important AFC-NFC games with important trends to note:

Atlanta at Indianapolis: The Falcons are back on the road where they mustered just 12 points in Week 1 at Minnesota, and none of those points came until the fourth quarter. Atlanta has hit the under in nine of the past 13 games on the road, while going 7-3 in the past 10 games overall. However, the over is 6-0 in their past six battles in Week 3. For the Colts, they have hit the under in eight of the past 11 games overall, while hitting in 15 of the past 21 at Lucas Oil Stadium. The under is also Colts will be playing their 2019 home debut after splitting the over/under in their first two games on the road.

Pittsburgh at San Francisco: The Steelers turn to backup QB Mason Rudolph after losing QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow surgery) for the season. The Steelers rank 28th in total offense with 284.5 yards per game, while ranking just 29th in rushing yards per contest (56.5). They're 29th in total defense, yielding 445.0 yards per game, 320.0 passing yards (29th) per game and 125.0 rushing yards (23rd) per game, while coughing up 30.5 points per game (28th).

The 49ers have been the opposite, rolling up 413.5 total yards per game to rank seventh, and they're fourth in rushing yards per game (178.5), while scoring 36.0 PPG to rank third in the NFL. This will be their home opener after winning and cover two games on the road. Their defense allowed just 73.0 rushing yards per game to rank eighth, and 17.0 PPG to check in seventh in the league.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with spreads of a touchdown or greater for Week 3, with two games listed with a spread of 21 or more. The totals are ranging from 43 to 47 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Denver at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have hit the 'under' in eight of their past 10 on the road against NFC teams. While the Packers defense has looked good through the first two games, one of the games was against the struggling Bears offense, and the other was a home battle against the one-dimensional Vikings. Of course, the Broncos haven't exactly been a juggernaut to this point, so the good times should continue to roll for the Pack. As far as Denver's defense is concerned, they have an alarming ZERO sacks through the first two games.

The under is 6-0 in the past six games for the Broncos following a straight-up loss, and 5-0-1 in the past six following a cover in the following week. The under is also an impressive 19-6-1 in the past 26 for Denver. For the Pack, the under is 4-1 in the past five overall, and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up victory.

N.Y. Jets at New England (1:00 p.m. ET): In two games last season in this series, the Patriots won 38-3 in Week 7 in Foxboro to hit the 'under', and 27-13 at Met Life Stadium in Week 12, also an 'under'. For more information on this game, see above.

Miami at Dallas (1:00 p.m. ET): The 'under' has connected in each of Miami's past two games as a double-digit underdog. For the first time in NFL history, at least in a non-strike season, there are two teams listed as underdogs of 20 or more points in the same week. The Dolphins are also the biggest underdogs in their franchise history.

The Dolphins were blanked at home last week against the Patriots, and the over/under is 1-1 through their first two games. Miami has been outscored a whopping 102-10 so far. They turn to QB Drew Rosen for his first start in aqua and orange, and he will be making his eighth career road start. The Arizona Cardinals averaged 18.1 points per game with Rosen at the helm on the road. Miami has also allowed 35.4 points per game across their past seven road contests, so another over could be the rule.

For Dallas, the over is a perfect 5-0 in the past five games overall, and 7-2 in the past nine contests at home. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record.

The under is 29-14 in Miami's past 43 games on a field turf surface, while going 5-2 in their past seven on the road against a team with a winning home record. For the Cowboys, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 on a field turf surface, while going 10-2 in the past 12 at home against teams with a losing record and 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win.

Oakland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings have hit the under in 10 of the past 12 games at home under head coach Mike Zimmer, with just three teams scoring 20 or more points during the span - the Bills, Saints and Bears. The under is 8-1 in their past nine games on a field turf surface, too, while hitting in four straight overall. The under is 5-1 in their past six following a straight-up loss, and 4-1 in the past five after a non-cover.

The Raiders have hit the under in five of their past seven games in the month of September. The under is 18-7-1 in the past 26 games overall, while going 8-2 in their past 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. In addition, the under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games on the road. One thing which gives under bettors pause, however, is that Oakland has the league's worst pass defense, allowing 352.0 yards per game, with 415.0 total yards per outing (27th in the NFL).

Under the Lights

L.A. Rams at Cleveland (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): In the Sunday Night Football game, the Rams head to FirstEnergy Stadium for the first SNF game in Cleveland since 2008. The under has cashed in four of the past five games on the road for the defending NFC champions, while the over has cashed in seven of their past 10 games in the month of September. For the Browns, the under is 15-6-1 in the past 22 home games, although the over cashed in their home opener in Week 1, a 43-13 setback against the Titans. The under is 4-1 in Cleveland's past five games when playing on a Sunday after a Monday Night contest.

Chicago at Washington (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): In the Monday nighter, the Bears and 'Skins tussle in D.C. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Chicago's past seven overall, 6-0 in their past six against NFC opponents and 5-1 in their past six appearances on MNF. In addition, the under is 4-1 in their past five against teams with a losing overall record, 4-0 in the past four following a straight-up win and 4-0 in the past four after a non-cover in their previous game. As far as the 'Skins are concerned, the over has cashed in four of their past five games overall. However, the under is 7-3 in the past 10 after a non-cover, while going 6-1 in the past seven after allowing 30 or more points in their previous outing. The under is also 8-1 in the past nine when Washington allowed 150 or more rushing yards in their previous contest.

And remember, going into Sunday's Rams-Browns tilt, the under is 7-1 so far through eight primetime games. For bettors playing more than just the game total, make a note that the first-half under is 8-0 in games played under the lights while the low side is 5-3 in the second-half.