NFL Recap Week 2

Betting Recap - Week 2
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 2 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-9
Against the Spread 5-10

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-11

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 20-10-1
Against the Spread 13-17-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 14-16-1
Against the Spread 9-21-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 12-18

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+6.5, ML +250) at Panthers, 20-14
Seahawks (+4, ML +180) at Steelers, 28-26
Colts (+3, ML +155) at Titans, 19-17

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-18) at Dolphins, 43-0
Chiefs (-7) at Raiders, 28-10
Cowboys (-6) at Redskins, 31-21

Mining Road Wins

-- The San Francisco 49ers (+1, ML +105) paddled the Cincinnati Bengals by a 41-17 score, posting road victories in consecutive weeks to open the regular season for the first time since 1989 when they won three straight on the road in Weeks 1-3 with QB Joe Montana at the helm. The 49ers are averaging 36.0 points per game (PPG) while allowing 17.0 PPG while covering both games at one-point underdogs. Next up will be their home opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. The Steelers enter 0-2 SU/ATS, and QB Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) and RB James Conner (knee) might not be available.

Wounded Wings

-- The Philadelphia Eagles saw several star players leave their Sunday Night Football game against the Atlanta Falcons, but they held a late 20-17 lead in the fourth quarter before WR Julio Jones broke free for a 54-yard touchdown on a fourth-down play to secure victory for the home side. The Eagles lost WRs DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor to injuries, as well as QB Carson Wentz for a brief period. TE Dallas Goedert was also lost to an injury in a game which was super costly to the visitors, and they ended up losing and not covering, either.

Miami Mice

-- For the second consecutive weekend the laughingstock of the NFL was the Miami Dolphins. After opening the season with a 59-10 shellacking from the Baltimore Ravens the New England Patriots strolled into town as 18-point favorites. While the Patriots didn't get off to as quick of a start as the Ravens, they made up for lost time in the third quarter, including a pair of pick-sixes. When the dust settled, the Dolphins were on the short end of a 43-0 score, and they have been outscored 92-10 through the first two games. As such, they have opened as 21-point underdogs for their Week 3 road game against the Dallas Cowboys.

Total Recall

-- The under was 11-3 between Thursday's game and Sunday's entire slate, including the games with the top five totals on the board. Kansas City Chiefs-Oakland Raiders (53), Philadelphia Eagles-Atlanta Falcons (53), New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams (52.5), New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins (48.5) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Carolina Panthers (48) each cashed the under, and a couple of the results were never in doubt. In fact, the Saints-Rams shootout never materialized, helped out in part by QB Drew Brees (hand/thumb) leaving the game, had a total of 6-3 at halftime. Hopefully you had a few 'under' tickets in your pocket this week.

Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed a pair of pick-sixes in their blowout loss, but even his best (or worst) efforts couldn't help the total go 'over', similiar to Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston, who had two pick-sixes in an 'under' result in Week 1 against the 49ers.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Chicago Bears-Denver Broncos (40.5) game. It was expected to be a defensive grind, and it was. The Bears, who totaled just three points in their opening game loss in Week 1, didn't score their first touchdown of the season until the third quarter. Through eight quarters the Bears have generated just 19 total points, including only one touchdown. It's no surprise that the 'under' is 2-0 for Chicago so far. For the Broncos, they fell at Oakland in Week 1 on Monday Night, and they're 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS and the 'under' is also 2-0.

-- The 'under' is 2-0 in the first two primetime games of Week 2, with the Monday Night Football battle between the Cleveland Browns-New York Jets (45) still pending. The 'over' is 1-5 (16.7%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- As mentioned, the Steelers lost Roethlisberger (elbow) and Conner (knee) to injuries in the first half. QB Mason Rudolph and RB Jaylen Samuels were forced to pick up the slack. Big Ben is set for an MRI on Monday.

-- Brees (hand) banged his right throwing hand on a rushing Rams DT Aaron Donald, and he was unable to return. He will remain in Southern California to see a hand specialist. QB Teddy Bridgewater finished up, and would start Week 3 if needed.

-- Cardinals RB David Johnson (wrist) missed a chunk of the game at Baltimore due to a wrist injury, but ultimately was able to return and finish up.

-- Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (knee) left the game in Washington due to a knee issue, and he'll go for an MRI.

-- As mentioned, the Eagles lost Wentz (ribs, concussion) briefly before he was cleared to return. Jackson (groin) left in the second quarter and was unable to return, Jeffery (calf) left early and didn't come back. Goedert (calf) also left in the first half and didn't return, while Agholor (concussion) was out for a couple of drives before passing tests and returning to finish.

Looking Ahead

-- The Titans and Jaguars will do battle on Thursday Night Football in Northast Florida, with the Titans installed as slight road favorites (-2.5). They're 1-4 ATS in the past five games inside the AFC South, and 16-34-3 ATS in the past 53 against losing teams. The Jaguars are 3-9-2 ATS in the past 14 games ovoerall, and 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight divisional games, so something's gotta give. In this series, Tennessee has covered four in a row, while the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. However, the Titans are 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight trips to Duuuuuval.

-- The Jets hit the road trying to cool off the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in Foxboro. The Jets are 2-5 ATS in the past seven road games, and 1-7 ATS in the past eight against AFC East foes while going 0-5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. The Patriots have covered seven of the past nine divisional games, while going 40-16-2 ATS in the past 58 at Gillette Stadium, including their 33-3 win against the Steelers in Week 1. In this series, the Jets are 0-3-1 ATS in the past four trips to Foxboro, and 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings overall. The home team is 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine meetings, while the under has cashed in six in a row.

-- The Giants and Buccaneers seem to meet fairly frequently despite the fact they're not in the same division. New York has connected in seven of the past eight on the road against the spread. The Bucs are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four against teams with a losing record, and 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight vs. NFC. In this series, the G-Men are 5-0-1 ATS in the past six trips to the RayJay, while going 6-1-2 ATS in the past nine meetings overall. The under is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Tampa.

-- The Bears and Redskins will square off on Monday night, with the Bears installed as four-point favorites to open. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, although the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The Bears are also 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings with the 'Skins.

Close Calls - Week 2
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6½) 20, Carolina Panthers 14 (48): The Thursday night game featured a weather delay and a slow early scoring pace as Joey Slye hit four field goals to give the Panthers a brief 12-10 lead halfway through the third quarter. Tampa Bay answered with a 75-yard touchdown drive as the road underdog took a 17-12 lead heading into the fourth quarter on a Peyton Barber score. After a Carolina fumble and a missed Tampa Bay field goal, Barber would be the victim of a safety early in the fourth as the Panthers climbed within three points to keep overtime in the range of possibility. Getting good field position after the defensive score the Panthers were stopped on 4th-and-short just past midfield but a pair of punts followed before the Buccaneers extended the lead to six points. Cam Newton and the Panthers got the ball back with just over two minutes remaining needing a touchdown drive and they eventually reached the Tampa Bay 11-yard-line with a new set of downs. Short gains and a penalty left the Panthers facing 4th-and-1 from the 2-yard-line and a direct snap to Christian McCaffrey was sniffed out as the Buccaneers were the NFC South squad to avoid the 0-2 start.

Indianapolis Colts (+3) 19, Tennessee Titans 17 (43½): The Colts had two first half touchdowns but led only 13-7 with another missed PAT from Adam Vinatieri. The Titans scored on a short field after the break to lead 14-13 and then after a Jacoby Brissett fumble, Tennessee added a field goal despite only picking up 14 yards. The Titans forced a punt and had the momentum to put the game away after pass interference call converted a big 3rd down. A few plays later Marcus Mariota was sacked on the subsequent 3rd down and the Titans settled for a kick to go up seven, only this time Cairo Santos missed. The Colts didn’t take advantage on its next possession but getting the ball back with just under seven minutes remaining the Colts were able to hit a big play with a 55-yard-run and got the eventual touchdown to take the lead. Vinatieri would again miss the PAT however to leave the lead in jeopardy. The Titans had an opportunity crossing midfield in the final minute but ultimately couldn’t get the job done as the Colts played a second-straight down-to-the-wire game, this time winning.

Detroit Lions (+1) 13, Los Angeles Chargers 10 (47): The Lions missed a field goal six minutes before halftime and allowed the Chargers to add three before the break to trail 10-6. Matthew Stafford had an interception on the first drive of the second half but the Lions were bailed out with the defense forcing a fumble of Austin Ekeler on 1st-and-goal. More mistakes followed as the Chargers missed two field goals surrounding another Stafford interception before Detroit broke through in the fourth quarter with a big play to Kenny Golladay, leading 13-10. The Chargers reached the red zone late in the fourth quarter but went backwards and Philip Rivers wound up intercepted on 3rd-and-19 before the Chargers had a chance to struggle with the decision to try for the tying field goal from punter Ty Long who was serving as the kicker with Michael Badgley injured.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) 31, Washington Redskins 21 (46): After a scoreless first quarter Washington took a 7-0 lead in the second quarter that held until Dallas hit a 51-yard touchdown with about six minutes remaining. Dallas also managed to find the end zone just before halftime to suddenly take a 14-7 lead. The Cowboys kept the momentum with another touchdown out of the break to lead 21-7 but Washington answered to sit a point short of the underdog number down 21-14. Dallas had a touchdown brought back on a penalty and Washington’s defense was able to hold for a field goal, sitting just one touchdown away from covering the number into the fourth quarter. A promising drive stalled just past midfield and with still more than 11 minutes on the clock Washington went for it on 4th-and-3 and came up empty. Dallas put the game away with another touchdown on the short field. Washington would climb back within 10 with a touchdown just ahead of the two-minute warning to clear the ‘over’ but they couldn’t get a stop to get the ball back.

Houston Texans (-7) 13, Jacksonville Jaguars 12 (43½): Houston led just 6-3 through three quarters after a scoreless third quarter but the first touchdown of the game came from Deshaun Watson with just over 11 minutes remaining. That touchdown put the Texans past the favorite spread for the first time in the game. Gardner Minshew led the Jaguars down the field for a field goal to trim the margin to seven, with a spread that closed right at +7 from as high as +9½. The Jaguars held on defense to get the ball back and Jacksonville converted two fourth downs on the way to the red zone. With 30 seconds left Minshew connected with DJ Clark and down by one the Jaguars opted to go for the win but came up short on a Leonard Fournette rush attempt.

Green Bay Packers (-3) 21, Minnesota Vikings 16 (43): After a win in Week 1 but limited offensive production for the Packers in Matt Lafleur’s debut, Green Bay came out firing in the home opener. The Packers scored just over two minutes into the game and eventually went up 21-0 early in the second quarter. Dalvin Cook broke a 75-yard run to break the momentum for the Packers and after missing an early field goal Dan Bailey added three before halftime to put the Vikings back in the game down 21-10 after the Packers opted not to kick on 4th-and-1 from the Minnesota 25. The Vikings thought they added seven on that drive with a three-yard score to Stefon Diggs questionably overturned via replay to call offensive pass interference under the new challengeable rules. Green Bay would fumble on its first possession of the second half and the Vikings added a short field touchdown to climb within five, with Bailey’s PAT blocked. Five straight punts followed as neither offense could get anything going and ‘over’ backers moaned after supposedly sitting pretty with the hot scoring start. The Vikings were poised to take the lead with about five minutes remaining reaching the Green Bay 8-yard-line with a new set of downs but Kirk Cousins made an ill-advised throw to the corner of the end zone that was intercepted on 1st down. Green Bay was able to run out most of the remaining clock to hold on despite the offense disappearing, while the ‘under’ also held on.

Chicago Bears (-3) 16, Denver Broncos 14 (40½): The spread on this game fluctuated a lot after quickly rising from even to the Bears as a slight favorite. A common number was -2 for the Bears much of the weekend but on Sunday afternoon the Bears hit -2½ and eventually -3. Chicago didn’t impress early in the game but managed a 13-3 edge through three quarter to sit comfortably ahead of the number. In the fourth the Broncos completed a lengthy drive to add three points and were poised to tie the game with 1st-and-goal from the 4-yard-line. Joe Flacco eventually was intercepted but pinned deep Chicago punted a few plays later to give the Broncos another shot. This time Flacco delivered including two 4th down conversions and after the touchdown with 31 seconds left Flacco delivered what looked like the game-winning two-point conversion in a huge bold play from Vic Fangio against his old team. It was not to be as a borderline 1st down roughing the passer call gave the Bears a big boost and Mitchell Trubisky struck for 25 yards on 4th-and-15 in the final seconds. Chicago still had a timeout and new kicker Eddy Pineiro became a hero hitting from 53 yards.

Atlanta Falcons (+1) 24, Philadelphia Eagles 20 (53½): The Falcons had a 17-6 edge in the third quarter of this game but Matt Ryan had an interception deep in his own territory to get the Eagles back in the game. Philadelphia appeared to add the two-point conversion as well but Carson Wentz was ruled down just short of the line as Atlanta held a five-point lead. Ryan would be intercepted in the end zone on the next possession when a field goal could have put the margin to eight points. After swapping punts Philadelphia delivered a tremendous 13-play drive to burn well over eight minutes to take the lead. Up by one the two-point conversion try loomed large on a spread that was commonly +2 before sliding to +1 and the Eagles hit Zach Ertz to lead by three. Atlanta stalled near midfield facing 4th-and-3 at its own 46 when a short pass to Julio Jones to get past the sticks turned into a 54-yard score. Up four Atlanta’s defense still had a lot of work ahead with the Eagles converting an epic 4th-and-14 for 43 yards and getting a free timeout as an Atlanta player was injured on the play. With still a minute to go, an Eagles score seemed inevitable but the Eagles picked up just two yards in the next three plays and faced 4th-and-8. Wentz hit Ertz again incredibly close to the line but he was ruled just short with that spot holding on review as Atlanta escaped with the win.