Wednesday 8/14/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, NFL & CFL games.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 7:00PM
192 Florida St. -4.0(-105) Pinnacle vs 191 Boise St. triple-dime bet
Analysis: 3-star (192) Florida St -4 over Boise St in Jacksonville, FL. 7:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st. I'm buying a Florida State team that is off their worst season since 1976 as I expect to see some regression to the mean here. The Seminoles return 16 starters and are much improved on both sides of the ball. Obviously, year one under head coach Willie Taggart wasn't a good look. However, note that in his career, his teams improved upon the previous year's season win total in 6 of his previous 8 years (one win total remained the same). I reached out to an FSU insider this week that watches practice each day and the first week so far has looked good for the Noles. Meanwhile, Boise St has to replace a 4-year starting QB, a 1,400-yard rusher and their top 2 receivers. This game will be played in Jacksonville and as of a few weeks ago, FSU has sold 34,000 tickets for the game. Boise State requested only 2,500 tickets. There will be at least 90% Florida St fans in the crowd.
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Friday, Aug 30 2019 7:15PM
154 Rutgers -12.0(-110) Westgate vs 153 Massachusetts triple-dime bet
Analysis: After 11 straight losses to close the 2018 season, Rutgers needs a "feel-good" win to start off 2019. The Scarlet Knights hammered Texas St 35-7 as a 16.5-point favorite in last year's opener and I expect more of the same here. Also note in their only other big favorite role in the last two years, Rutgers beat Morgan St 65-0 (-41) so head coach Chris Ash is certainly not afraid to run it up. Also this should be a much improved Rutgers offense with 8 starters back. On the other side, UMass is the least experienced team in the entire country (#130) with only 8 returning starters. It's clearly a rebuilding year under new head coach Walt Bell. The Minutemen lose their top 2 passers, their top 3 rushers and an All-American at WR in Andy Isabella (1,698 receiving yards last year).
I like this as a 3-star up to -14. 2-star from -14.5-16. 1-star at -16.5.
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Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 8 2019 1:00PM
459 BAL -3.5(-110) William Hill vs 460 MIA double-dime bet
FEZZIK | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/08/19 - 1:00 PM
464 JAC 4.5 (-110) Southpoint vs 463 KAN
double-dime bet
FEZZIK | NFL SIDE THU, 09/05/19 - 8:20 PM
451 GBP 4.0 (-110) William Hill vs 452 CHI
triple-dime bet
NFL 2 stars
ADDING NYG UN 6 wins -140 2 stars
49ers OVER 8 wins -140
Car OVER 7.5 wins -130
Oak UN 6 wins -100
Philly YES to make Playoffs -190 (I also like Philly OV 10 wins, but like this bet better)
Chic NO to make Playoffs -100 (I also like Chic UN 9 wins, but like this bet better)
NFL SEASON WINS:
Houston Texans UNDER 8.5 wins -120! 3 Stars!! Previously released.
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 10:30PM
214 Southern Cal -10.0(-110) William Hill vs 213 Fresno St. triple-dime bet
Analysis:
USC needs a feel-good win here after a disappointing 2018 season. Head coach Clay Helton is on the hot seat but he did make a great hire in bringing in O.C. Graham Harrell from North Texas whose offenses averaged 35 ppg the last two years. Harrell inherits a lot of talent as QB JT Daniels is back after a "so-so" true freshman season along with one of the best sets of WR's in the country. Meanwhile, Fresno St is being over-priced because the Bulldogs are coming off their best season in school history (12 wins). I look for the Bulldogs to take a couple steps back this season as they are No. 129 in the country in returning experience with only 9 starters back. Fresno will be starting a brand new QB at night in a freshly renovated L.A. Coliseum. The Trojans should roll here.
I like this pick as a 3-star up to -12.5...2-star from -13 to -13.5. 1-star at -14.
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Dave Cokin for first week of college
byu +6
Nebraska -34
UCLA +3
Utah State +3.5
Ball State +17
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Warren Sharp 2 unit future prop
Phil to win NFC East - 2 units
Carolina over 7.5 wins - 1 unit
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BEN BURNS | NFL TOTAL THU, 09/05/19 - 8:20 PM
452 CHI / 451 GBP Over 45.5 Sportsbook.ag
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
I'm playing on Chicago/GB OVER the total. Analysis to follow
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PGF
O7'Titans season wins
U6 Pitt NCAA season wins
U9' Central Florida season wins
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Vegas Line Reader
Chicago Bears Under 9 Wins
Dallas Cowboys Under 9 Wins
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LasVegasWolf
Panthers OVER 7.5 (-175) regular season wins
Redskins UNDER 6.5 (-150) regular season wins
San Diego St OVER 7.5 (-140) 2%
Arkansas UNDER 5.5 (-140) regular season wins
Air Force UNDER 8 (-150) regular season wins
Arizona St UNDER 7 (-135) regular season wins
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Dave Cokin:
College:
Pittsburgh +3
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Fezzik | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 8 2019 4:25PM
475 NYG / 476 DAL UNDER 46.0 William Hilltriple-dime bet
Analysis: Gmen down their top 3 WRs (MAYBE Sterling Shepard MIGHT PLAY)
Eli has always struggled without Beckham, how will he succeed here!!
And Zeke MIA still........even if he plays for Dallas, there will be rust.....
UNDER!
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Brandon Lee
top NCAA OU Northern Illinois Under 7
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Jack Jones
Top Stanford over 6.5
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Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 8:00PM
209 Louisiana Tech 21.0(-110) Westgate vs 210 Texas single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (209) Louisiana Tech +21 over TEXAS. 8:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st.
I think Texas is one of the most overrated teams in the country this year. The Longhorns have just 8 returning starters (tied for last in country)as they lose their leading rusher, leading receiver and entire front 7 on defense. However I feel there was an overreaction to their Sugar Bowl win vs an un-motivated Georgia team and note that the Horns won 10 games last year but 7 of those games were by a TD or less. Tom Herman is a great underdog coach but in his career as a favorite, he is just 14-22-2 ATS (39%). Note that Texas has failed to cover as a double-digit favorite in each of their previous two season openers (lost both games outright to Maryland). Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech head coach Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. Finally, Texas has a huge look-ahead game vs LSU on deck.
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Aug 31 2019 4:00PM
187 Virginia Tech -3.5(-110) Westgate vs 188 Boston College single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (187) Virginia Tech -3.5 over BOSTON COLLEGE. 4:00pm ET on Saturday, August 31st.
I have this line power-rated at VT -6.5. The mis-pricing here comes with a Virginia Tech team that had their first losing season since 1992 last year. However, this year's team will be much improved with 16 returning starters including 10 on the defensive side. The Hokies D should be plenty motivated in the final year under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster. As far as Boston College goes, I expect the Eagles to take a step back this season especially with only 9 returning starters. The betting public usually just looks at the skill positions and BC does return their starting QB, RB and top WR. However, they are woefully inexperienced in most other areas including the defensive secondary.
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