Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 7/11/19
Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams
League Betting Notes
This Week
-- Underdogs went 3-1 SU in Week 4
-- Underdogs went 4-0 ATS in Week 4
-- Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 4
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 4
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 4
Year To Date
-- Favorites are 10-5 SU overall
-- Underdogs are 9-6 ATS overall
-- Home teams are 9-6 SU overall
-- Away teams are 8-7 ATS overall
-- The 'Over' is 8-7 overall
Analysis
Montreal (1-2) opened the week on Thursday night with a huge 36-29 win over Hamilton (3-1) in the home opener for the Alouettes, dealing QB Jeremiah Masoli and the high-flying Ti-Cats their first loss and non-cover. It was the biggest upset through the first month of the CFL regular season, as the Als cashed anywhere from +450 to +550 for those brave enough to select them on the moneyline. It's hard to imagine there were many takers after a 41-10 win by Hamilton over Montreal in Week 3.
The Alouettes are now 2-1 ATS and the 'over' has connected in two of their first three. The Ti-Cats were held to 29 points, their lowest point total since they opened the season with a 23-17 win over the Roughriders.
In the best matchup of the weekend, Winnipeg (3-0) flexed its muscle again in a 29-14 road victory against Ottawa (2-1), as the Blue Bombers improved to a perfect 3-0 ATS on the season, too, including 2-0 SU/ATS on the road. Winninpeg is averaging 31.0 points per game (PPG) in two road outings, too. The 14 points they allowed defensively was the lowest this season.
The RedBlacks entered the week with 38.0 PPG, but they were held well under their average. Defense continues to be a challenge for the RedBlacks, who have now allowed 32.7 PPG.
BC Lions (1-3) edged Toronto (0-3) for the 18-17 road victory as the 'under' easily connected. It was, by far, Toronto's best defensive effort of the season. After allowing 96 total points through the first two games, including 64 in Week 1 against the Ti-Cats, the 'under' has now cashed in back-to-back games for the Argos.
The low-scoring result was the first 'under' result after three straight overs to open the season. The Lions allowed 36.0 PPG in the first three outings, and they had scored 23 or more points in each of the contests, so the defensive battle was a departure from the norm. For the Argos, it was their first cover of the season, too.
Calgary (2-1) hit the road without QB Bo Levi Mitchell (pectoral), who is on the six-game injured list. QB Nick Arbuckle stepped in and steered the ship to a road win against Saskatchewan (1-3) by a comfortable 37-10 score. Arbuckle threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns, as the Stamps have now won two in a row. It was their first cover of the season, their highest point total of the season and their lowest defensive total allowed.
Team Betting Notes
-- On Thursday it will be the Eskimos traveling to British Columbia to take on the Lions. Neither of these teams have been particularly attractive against the number. The Esks are 0-4 ATS in the past four on the road, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven after a bye week.
-- The Lions are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against West Division clubs. They're also 2-8 ATS in the past 10 in Week 5, for whatever that's worth. In this series, Edmonton is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, but just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 trips to Vancouver. The 'over' is 5-0-1 in the past six meetings in this series.
-- The winless Argonauts travel to meet the high-flying Blue Bombers, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a spread in the high teens or even low 20's in this one. The Argos are 1-6 ATS in the past seven games overall, and 7-19 ATS in the past 26 on the road.
-- For the Blue Bombers, they're 9-2 ATS in the past 11 games overall dating back to last season. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four games at home, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against losing teams. In this series, the Argos are 0-6 ATS in the past six meetings, and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six trips to Winnipeg. The over is also 6-0 in the past six meetings, and 4-1 in the past five battles in Winnipeg.
-- On Saturday we get Montreal and Ottawa tangling in Canada's capital city. The Als have covered seven of the past eight overall, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven against winning teams and 8-2 ATS in the past 10 on the road.
-- The RedBlacks are 4-0 ATS in the past four against East teams, but just 2-6 ATS in the past eight against losing teams. Ottawa has managed a 10-3 ATS mark in the past 13 meetings in this series.
-- As far as the total is concerned in Montreal-Ottawa, it's all under all the time. The under is 7-0 in the past seven meetings. While the over is 4-1 in Montreal's past five, the under is 10-3 in Montreal's past 13 road outings. The Under is 13-4 in the past 17 for the RedBlacks against the East, while going 5-2 in the past seven against losing teams.
-- In Saturday's final game, Calgary and Hamilton tangle in what should be the best matchup of the weekend. The Ti-Cats are 6-18-3 ATS in the past 27 against winning teams, and 0-7-1 ATS in the past eight games in the month of July. In this series, Calgary is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings and 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in Hamilton. The under is 10-3 in the past 13 meetings in this series, while the under is 5-2 in the past seven in Hamilton.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
David Schwab
Betting Recap
On the 4th of July, Montreal posted its first straight-up win of the season in Thursday night’s 36-29 upset against Hamilton as a heavy 13-point home underdog. This was the backend of an East Division home-and-home series.
In Friday’s CFL action, Winnipeg remained undefeated on the year with a 29-14 victory over Ottawa as a three-point road underdog. British Columbia edged Toronto 18-17 as an eight-point road favorite in Saturday’s early game ahead of Calgary’s 37-10 pasting of Saskatchewan as a five-point underdog on the road this past Saturday night.
Thursday, July 11
Edmonton Eskimos (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread:
Total:
Game Overview
Edmonton comes off a bye week looking for its first road win of the season. The Eskimos were upended by Winnipeg 28-21 in Week 3 as five-point road underdogs. The total stayed UNDER 57 ½ points in that loss after going OVER in their first two wins at home against Montreal and BC. Edmonton beat the Lions 39-23 in Week 2 as three-point favorites at home. Trevor Harris has thrown for 1,086 yards and six touchdowns against zero interceptions in his first three starts for the Eskimos as their new quarterback.
The Lions snapped a three-game losing streak with Saturday’s win. They were outscored by 30 points in those first three losses before squeezing past Toronto with the one-point win their last time out. Mike Reilly completed 23 of his 34 passing attempts in his last start for 272 passing yards and one score. He was also picked off once. BC got a big effort from John White running the ball with 138 rushing yards and one score on 22 carries.
Betting Trends
-- The Eskimos have a 5-2 edge against the spread in their last seven games against BC and the total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings. The Lions are 10-4 SU and ATS in their last 14 home games against the Eskimos.
Friday, July 12
Toronto Argonauts (0-3 SU, 1-2ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
Point-spread:
Total:
Game Overview
Toronto is still looking for its first win of the season after losing 14 of 18 games SU in 2018. The Argonauts are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on the road. McLeod Bethel-Thompson put the ball up 33 times against BC on Saturday and he completed 25 of those passes for 303 yards and one touchdown. He also tossed an interception. Toronto was held to 41 yards rushing on 11 attempts. James Wilder Jr. has rushed for 105 yards on 22 carries this season.
The Blue Bombers are the only CFL team with a perfect record both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in their last two games after going OVER 50 ½ point in a 33-23 win against BC in Week 1 with the closing spread set as a PICK. Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols left Friday’s game in the third quarter with an apparent neck injury, but he remains optimistic that he will be able to go this Friday night. Chris Streveler took his place and he completed six of his eight passing attempts for 42 yards and a score.
Betting Trends
-- Winnipeg has a 4-1 edge both SU and ATS in its last five home games against the Argonauts. The total has gone OVER in the last five meetings in this inter-division clash. The Blue Bombers have won five of the last six meetings SU overall.
Saturday, July 13
Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Point-spread:
Total:
Game Overview
The Alouettes stopped a two-game SU skid with last Thursday’s upset. The total went OVER 56 points against Hamilton and it has gone OVER in two of their first three games. Vernon Adams Jr. threw for 202 yards in that game after completing 14 of his 25 passing attempts. William Stanback was the top star on offense with 203 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on 22 carries. He now leads the CFL in that category with 357 yards on the ground and four scores on 44 carries.
Ottawa started the season with a road upset against Calgary followed by a wild 44-41 victory against Saskatchewan at home as a 4 ½-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER 54 points in the loss to Winnipeg after it went OVER in the RedBlacks’ first two games. Dominique Davis has started all three games at quarterback and he has thrown for 864 yards and three touchdowns, but he has also tossed six interceptions. He has completed 67.2 percent of his 119 passing attempts.
Betting Trends
-- Ottawa has won six of its last seven games against Montreal SU with the total staying UNDER in each of the last five meetings. The RedBlacks are 3-5-1 ATS in their last nine home games against the Alouettes.
Calgary Stampeders (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread:
Total:
Game Overview
The defending CFL Champions played the part on Saturday with the lopsided victory against Saskatchewan despite the absence of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell due to injury. In his place, Nick Arbuckle completed 19-of-22 passes for 262 yards and two scores. Reginald Begelton caught four passes for 61 yards and a score. Arbuckle completed at least one pass to nine different players. The Stampeders ran the ball 21 times for an additional 129 yards on the ground.
The Tiger-Cats fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with last Thursday’s loss as heavy road favorites. They beat Montreal 41-10 in the first meeting on June 28 as 12 ½-point favorites at home. The total went OVER 56 points in that second meeting after staying UNDER 56 ½ points in Week 3. Quarterback Jeramiah Masoli leads the CFL in passing after completing 94 of his 134 attempts for 1,325 yards in four games. He has seven touchdown throws against five interceptions.
Betting Trends
-- Calgary has won its last five road games against the Tiger-Cats SU with a 6-1 record ATS in the last seven meetings in Hamilton. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 13 meetings overall.
CFL
Long Sheet
Week 5
Thursday, July 11
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EDMONTON (2 - 1) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (1 - 3) - 7/11/2019, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 5-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Friday, July 12
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TORONTO (0 - 3) at WINNIPEG (3 - 0) - 7/12/2019, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 4-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 3-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Saturday, July 13
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MONTREAL (1 - 2) at OTTAWA (2 - 1) - 7/13/2019, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 5-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CALGARY (2 - 1) at HAMILTON (3 - 1) - 7/13/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-0 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CFL
Week 5
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Trend Report
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Thursday, July 11
Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Edmonton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games on the road
Edmonton is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing British Columbia
Edmonton is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing British Columbia
Edmonton is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
Edmonton is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia Lions
British Columbia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
British Columbia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games
British Columbia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
British Columbia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Edmonton
British Columbia is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
British Columbia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Edmonton
British Columbia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Friday, July 12
Toronto Argonauts
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Toronto is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Winnipeg is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games at home
Winnipeg is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Saturday, July 13
Montreal Alouettes
Montreal is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Montreal is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games
Montreal is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Montreal is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Montreal's last 13 games on the road
Montreal is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Ottawa
Montreal is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Montreal is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa RedBlacks
Ottawa is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games at home
Ottawa is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Montreal
Ottawa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Montreal
Ottawa is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Montreal
Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal
Calgary Stampeders
Calgary is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Hamilton
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 13 games when playing Hamilton
Calgary is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 13 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Hamilton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Hamilton's last 15 games
Hamilton is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Hamilton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Hamilton is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Calgary
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Hamilton's last 13 games when playing Calgary
Hamilton is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Calgary
Hamilton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Hamilton's last 13 games when playing at home against Calgary
CFL
Dunkel
Thursday, July 11
Edmonton @ BC Lions
Game 951-952
July 11, 2019 @ 10:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
113.974
BC Lions
103.338
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 10 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 3 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(-3 1/2); Over
CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, July 11
Edmonton (2-1) @ BC Lions (0-3)— Edmonton (-3) outscored BC 19-6 in second half of 39-23 home win over the Lions three weeks ago (total yardage 409-202, Eskimos). Home side won last four meetings; Edmonton lost last two visits to Vancouver, 42-32/31-23- over is 5-0-1 in last six series games. Eskimos lost their road opener 28-21 in Winnipeg LW; home side won all three of their games. Lions got first win 18-17 over winless Toronto LW; this is their first home game in four weeks- they lost home opener 33-23 to Winnipeg. Over is 3-1 in their games, 2-1 in Eskimo games.
Season totals through Week 4:
Home teams: 7-8
Favorites: 6-8
Over/under: 8-7