Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 7/4/19
Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams
League Betting Notes
This Week
-- Favorites went 4-0 SU in Week 3
-- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 3
-- Home teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 3
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 3
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 3
Year To Date
-- Favorites are 9-2 SU overall
-- Favorites are 6-5 ATS overall
-- Home teams are 8-3 SU overall
-- Away teams are 6-5 ATS overall
-- The 'Over' is 7-4 overall
Analysis
Winnipeg (2-0) picked up an impressive 28-21 victory, dealing Edmonton (2-1) their first setback of the season. The Blue Bombers have posted a 2-0 ATS mark across the first two outings, averaging 30.5 points per game (PPG) so far. They have split the totals so far.
For the Eskimos, they're averaging 30.5 PPG through two games at home, but they managed just 21 points in the road outing. The over is also 2-0 in their two home outings, and the under is 1-0 so far on the road. It's something to watch as we continue to go forward, as their next two games are also on the road.
BC Lions (0-3) is struggling, although it's their defense which is holding them back. They fell 36-32 on the road against Calgary (1-1) on Saturday, but it was their first cover of the season in three tries. The Lions have averaged 28.7 PPG through the first three games, which is fantastic offense, but their defense is awful, allowing 36.0 PPG, with at least 33 points yielded in each outing. As such, the 'over' has connected in all three of their games.
Toronto (0-2) fumbled their way through another ugly outing on Monday, falling 32-7 at Saskatchewan (1-2). While they sliced the points they allowed from the first game in half, they're still yielding 96 points through two outings.
The Roughriders have covered back-to-back games after opening with a loss and no-cover in Hamilton (3-0). The Riders are averaging 30.0 PPG through the first three contests, but the 'under' is 2-1. Outside of the Ottawa game, when they yielded 44 points, they have allowed just 30 total points in the other two outings.
Speaking of the Ti-Cats, they're looking like the CFL's best team so far. They steamrolled Montreal (0-2) by a 41-10 count, covering for the third consecutive weekend. Hamilton is averaging an impressive 42.7 PPG, posting 41 or more in two of the three outings. Just as impressive has been the defensive performance, yielding 13.7 PPG, with 17 or fewer points given up in each contest.
Team Betting Notes
-- The Ti-Cats and Alouettes will battle, this time in Montreal. Hamilton has managed an 8-3 ATS mark in the past 11 against losing records, and they're 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17 road contest.
-- The Alouettes are 6-1 ATS in the past seven games, and 6-1 ATS in the past seven against the East. They're also 5-1 ATS in the past six against winning teams. However, that didn't do them much good in Week 3 when they were rolled by the Ti-Cats at Tim Horton's. Montreal is 0-4 ATS in the past four home games against Hamilton, and 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in this series.
-- The Bombers and Ottawa (2-0) square off in Canada's capital city in an early battle for the top spot in the CFL. The Bombers are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 overall, 21-8 ATS in the past 29 road games and 21-8 ATS in the past 29 against winning teams.
-- The RedBlacks are 4-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. However, Winnipeg has dominated this series, going 4-0 ATS in the past four trips to Ottawa, and 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is also 4-1 in the past five in Ottawa, and 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series overall.
-- The Lions are 1-5 ATS in the past six games overall, and 2-8 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a losing overall record. The Argonauts aren't much better, going 1-4 ATS in the past five at home, and 1-5 ATS in the past six against losing teams. The Lions have cashed in four of their past five trips to Toronto. The under is also 14-2 in the past 16 meetings in Toronto, and 22-8 in the past 30 meetings in this series.
-- The Stampeders have managed a 1-5 ATS record in the past six against losing teams, and 4-12 ATS in the past 16 against West clubs.
-- The Stamps travel to meet the Roughriders, and the over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Regina. The over is also 6-2 in Calgary's past eight games on a Saturday, while the over is 4-1-1 in Saskatchewan's past six on a Saturday.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
David Schwab
Week 3 Betting Recap
Last week’s slate of games in the CFL started on Thursday night with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers edging Edmonton 28-21 as five-point home favorites to stay perfect on the year. Hamilton moved to 3-0 straight-up with its 41-10 rout over Montreal on Friday night closing as a heavy 12 ½-point favorite at home.
In a wild one out west on Saturday, Calgary came from behind to beat the British Columbia Lions 36-32, but the Stampeders could not cover as 10 ½-point home favorites. In the matchup between Toronto and Saskatchewan to celebrate Monday’s Canada Day, the Roughriders rolled to a 32-7 victory closing as 11 ½-point favorites at home.
Thursday, July 4
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -12 ½
Total: 56 ½
Game Overview
The Tiger-Cats come into the backend of this home-and-home series with a trio of wins both SU and against the spread by a combined score of 128-41. They rolled up 64 points against Toronto on the road in Week 2 after getting past Saskatchewan 23-17 in their season opener as five-point favorites at home.
Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has thrown for 924 yards and five touchdowns against four interceptions. He has completed 72.2 percent of his first 90 passing attempts. Brandon Banks leads the CFL in receiving yards with 20 catches for 334 yards and one touchdown.
Montreal held Hamilton scoreless for the first quarter of Friday’s game before falling apart at the seams. The defense gave up 417 yards through the air and 112 yards on the ground and the offensive line gave up six sacks. V
ernon Adams Jr. took the majority of the snaps at quarterback and threw for 173 yards and one score. Matt Shiltz completed six of his eight throws for another 64 yards through the air. The Alouettes have scored a total of 35 points in their first two games while giving up 73 points in the pair of losses.
Betting Trends
-- Hamilton has covered ATS in four of its last five games against Montreal and the total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings between these two division foes. The Alouettes have lost four of their last five home games SU against the Tiger-Cats.
Friday, July 5
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -3 ½
Total: 54 ½
Game Overview
The Blue Bombers have now won eight of their last 10 games both SU and ATS with last Thursday’s victory in their home opener. The total stayed UNDER 57 ½ points in that game and it has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven outings. Wide receiver Lucky Whitehead made the most of his CFL debut in front of the hometown crowd with a 75 yard catch for a score in the first half of that game followed by a 41-yard catch and run in the third quarter.
Quarterback Matt Nichols completed 13 of his 21 passing attempts for 200 yards and three touchdowns against one interception. He has thrown for 384 yards and six scores in his first two games this year.
Ottawa is coming off a bye week after scoring a combined 76 points in its first two games against Calgary on the road and Saskatchewan at home. It failed to cover as a 4 ½-point home favorite in the three-point win against the Roughriders in Week 2 and the total went OVER the closing line in each of the RedBlacks’ wins.
The total has gone OVER in four of their last five home games. Dominique Davis has thrown for 630 yards and three scores so far, but he has been picked off four times as well.
Betting Trends
Winnipeg has covered the closing spread in six of its last seven games against Ottawa and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings. The Blue Bombers also have 6-2 SU edge in their last eight road games against the RedBlacks.
Saturday, July 6
British Columbia Lions (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -6 ½
Total: 57.5
Game Overview
The Lions’ defense has been torched for 108 points in the unexpected 0-3 start. It has given up at least 33 points in each of those first three games. Quarterback Mike Reilly has completed 72 of his 108 passing attempts for 827 yards and four touchdowns against three interceptions.
John White has anchored BC’s running game with 92 total yards rushing on 26 carries. Bryan Burnham had a big game catching the ball against Calgary with 10 receptions for 94 yards. Reilly completed at least one pass to seven different players in the losing effort.
Toronto is picking up where it left off last season after posting just four SU wins in 2018. The offense was shutout for three of four quarters with James Franklin taking most of the snaps at quarterback. He completed 20 of his 28 passing attempts for 224 yards, but he only tossed one touchdown against two interceptions. The Argonauts gained 97 yards rushing on 18 carries with James Wilder Jr. leading the way.
Betting Trends
-- Toronto has the slight 4-2 edge ATS in the last six meetings with the total staying UNDER in six of the last seven games in this inter-division tilt. BC has won four of its last five home games against the Argonauts both SU and ATS.
Calgary Stampeders (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -3 ½
Total: 51
Game Overview
The Stampeders won for the first time this season following a loss to Ottawa in Week 1, but they may have lost their quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell for this contest. He left Saturday’s game in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury and is playing status for this Saturday is up in the air.
Nick Arbuckle took his place and led the game-winning scoring drive. He went a perfect 9-for-9 throwing the ball for 93 yards, including a touchdown throw to Eric Rogers with less than a minute left on the clock. Rogers ended the game with nine receptions for 100 yards and three scores.
Saskatchewan posted its first SU victory of year behind quarterback Cody Fajardo, in place of an injured Zach Collaros. He made a strong case to retain the starting role even if Collaros was healthy with 430 yards passing and two touchdown throws.
He completed 24-of-31 passing attempts highlighted by four completions to Kyran Moore for 127 yards and a score. William Powell ran the ball 15 times for 77 yards as the team’s leading rusher.
Betting Trends
-- Calgary has won nine of its last 12 games SU against Saskatchewan and it has covered the closing spread in six of the last nine meetings in this West Division clash. The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight matchups in Saskatchewan.
CFL
Dunkel
Week 4
Thursday, July 4
Hamilton @ Montreal
Game 689-690
July 4, 2019 @ 7:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Hamilton
123.643
Montreal
106.138
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 17 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hamilton
by 12
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Hamilton
(-12); Over
Friday, July 5
Winnipeg @ Ottawa
Game 691-692
July 5, 2019 @ 7:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
116.158
Ottawa
114.906
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 1
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ottawa
by 3 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(+3 1/2); Under
Saturday, July 6
BC Lions @ Toronto
Game 693-694
July 6, 2019 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
BC Lions
115.165
Toronto
103.202
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
BC Lions
by 12
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
BC Lions
by 7 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
BC Lions
(-7 1/2); Under
Calgary @ Saskatchewan
Game 695-696
July 6, 2019 @ 10:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
112.350
Saskatchewan
118.884
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 6 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Saskatchewan
by 4 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(-4 1/2); Over
CFL
Long Sheet
Week 4
Thursday, July 4
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HAMILTON (3 - 0) at MONTREAL (0 - 2) - 7/4/2019, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 4-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 4-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Friday, July 5
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WINNIPEG (2 - 0) at OTTAWA (2 - 0) - 7/5/2019, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-1 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 3-1 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Saturday, July 6
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BRITISH COLUMBIA (0 - 3) at TORONTO (0 - 2) - 7/6/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 2-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CALGARY (1 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 2) - 7/6/2019, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-3 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-3 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CFL
Week 4
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Trend Report
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Thursday, July 4
Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Hamilton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Hamilton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Hamilton's last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 5 games on the road
Hamilton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
Hamilton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Montreal
Hamilton is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Hamilton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Hamilton is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Hamilton's last 12 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal Alouettes
Montreal is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Montreal is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games
Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Montreal is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Montreal is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games at home
Montreal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
Montreal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Montreal is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Montreal's last 12 games when playing at home against Hamilton
Friday, July 5
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Winnipeg is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games
Winnipeg is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Winnipeg's last 25 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Winnipeg is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Winnipeg is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Winnipeg is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa RedBlacks
Ottawa is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Ottawa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Ottawa is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Ottawa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games at home
Ottawa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Ottawa is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Ottawa is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Ottawa is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Saturday, July 6
British Columbia Lions
British Columbia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
British Columbia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of British Columbia's last 5 games
British Columbia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
British Columbia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
British Columbia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
British Columbia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of British Columbia's last 7 games when playing Toronto
British Columbia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of British Columbia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Argonauts
Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing British Columbia
Toronto is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing British Columbia
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against British Columbia
Calgary Stampeders
Calgary is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games
Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Calgary is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 15 games on the road
Calgary is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Saskatchewan
Calgary is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Saskatchewan
Calgary is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Calgary's last 8 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Calgary
Saskatchewan is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Calgary
Saskatchewan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
Saskatchewan is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saskatchewan's last 8 games when playing at home against Calgary