Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 7/1/19
Toronto Argonauts vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Preview and Predictions 07-01-2019 in CFL
The Saskatchewan Roughriders search for their first win of the season when they host the Toronto Argonauts on Monday. The Roughriders opened the 2019 campaign with back-to-back road losses to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (23-17) and Ottawa Redblacks (44-41) and hope to start a three-game homestand on the right foot in the first Canada Day matchup with the Argonauts since 1984.
"We talked a lot about Toronto and we looked at their roster closely ... and there's some good players," Saskatchewan coach Craig Dickenson told reporters. "Toronto is going to come with their best game and our guys know it." The Argonauts are left to go back to the drawing board following one of their most lopsided losses in franchise history. Toronto suffered a 64-14 setback to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in its home opener, which was the largest margin of defeat in the rivalry that dates back to the late 1940s, and hopes to put the loss in the rearview mirror by handing coach Corey Chamblin, who led the Roughriders to a Grey Cup championship in 2013 only to be fired two years later, his first win since taking the reins in Toronto. "We've just gotta get our minds right," Chamblin told reporters. "We're going to talk about not how big we lost but how we lost."
TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN
ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (0-1): James Franklin completed 16-of-26 passes for 211 yards and an interception before he was replaced by McLeod Bethel-Thompson in the second half but the former Missouri Tigers star is expected to start again Monday. Toronto signed kicker Zack Medeiros to the active roster after Ronnie Pfeffer was hurt against the Tiger-Cats while safety Jermaine Gabriel is sidelined with a neck injury. Toronto made a pair of moves to add depth to its defence as defensive back Jonathan Dowling, who played for three NFL teams in three years, and defensive lineman Kingsley Opara were added to the practice roster.
ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (0-2): Cody Fajardo threw for 360 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his CFL debut against Ottawa and is expected to get the start once again after his career night. Defensive lineman Makana Henry was fined an undisclosed amount after he was flagged for an unnecessary roughness penalty for knocking down Ottawa quarterback Dominique Davis in the bench area. Linebacker Solomon Elimimian, who won the league's Most Outstanding Defensive Player award in 2014 and 2016, completed his first practice since suffering a calf injury in training and could make his Saskatchewan debut.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Saskatchewan has won five straight regular-season meetings with Toronto.
2. Franklin has been limited to one touchdown pass in his last four starts dating back to last season.
3. Roughriders LBs Cameron Judge (tied for first) and Derrick Moncrief (tied for fifth) are among the league leaders in tackles with 15 and 13, respectively.
PREDICTION: Saskatchewan 28, Toronto 22
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Toronto Argonauts at Saskatchewan Roughriders Preview and Best Bet
Early wishes to those up in Canada for a Happy Canada Day on July 1st, as it's actually the game that's played on that day that is getting the focus this week.
Odds: Saskatchewan (-11.5); Total set at 53.5
(Monday, 7:00 p.m. ET)
There aren't too many instances in professional football on either side of the border where we as fans/bettors can be completely sure of what type of message a coaching staff will bring to their team each week, but for this matchup, we all can be pretty sure both staffs have been harping on their respective defenses for days.
The Saskatchewan Roughriders defense – one that has the talent pool to be by far and away the best in the league – got shelled in Ottawa last weekend, giving up 44 points to the Redblacks and Dominque Davis. It was the second straight year that Saskatchewan's annual trip to Ottawa resulted in the Redblacks putting up 40 on the Roughriders, and thanks to the 2019 Riders offense, the 44-41 losing score this year looks a lot more flattering then the 40-17 one this organization suffered a year ago.
Yet, the message defensively will be just as stern this time around, as they can't go around giving up easy yards and points like they did and expect to win too many games. But if we can use last year as any indication, we should expect the Riders defense to step up from here on out, because last season's visit to Ottawa in Week 2 was the only time all year Saskatchewan allowed more then 34 points against. Welcoming a Toronto team that looked awful last week for the home opener is a great situation for this Riders defense to get back on track, and it's hard to believe that they won't be able to to some degree.
From Toronto's perspective, everybody knows about the offensive issues this team is likely to have this year, but I don't think many saw them giving up 64 points at home to Hamilton in their season opener. Toronto's staff had all of camp and the preseason to prepare for Hamilton and to lay an egg that badly was abysmal.
There is no way around that effort for the defense this week in practice, and on an individual and team level, every single man on that Toronto defense is looking for redemption this week. Going out on the road and silencing the crowd early with a big stop would be a huge boost of confidence for the Argos D, and considering the Riders are winless themselves, it's not like the Argos D comes into this game completely deflated, as they could be say against a perfect 2-0 SU opponent.
The Riders may have gashed Ottawa's D a week ago, but they only put up 3 more points against that same Hamilton team that Toronto faced, so Argos fans can take something from that, but the Riders defense did manage to hold Hamilton to 41 fewer points in their game as well. Hence the double-digit home chalk price. But with the emphasis on defense for both sides this week, the only way I can look at this game is to go 'under' the total for the full game.
That might seem odd to say given that we just saw each side give up 40+ points last week and it's easy to figure something similar will happen. But oddly enough, it's these scenarios where I look to go against conventional wisdom so to speak and it's because of the idea that neither team, on offense or defense, is really as bad or as good as they've looked through two games or less so far.
Furthermore, looking to go 'under' the total following a game where a team scored 40 or more points (ie: Saskatchewan) was a highly profitable scenario league wide last year. Not including two playoff games where totals went 1-1 O/U featuring a team coming off a 40-point performance, the 26 times it was live in 2018 produced a 5-20-1 O/U record the the following game.
Then, when you add in that teams coming off a performance where they allowed 40+ points (ie: both teams in this game), the O/U record the following game was 8-12 O/U a year ago, going 'low' here starts to look better and better. The opener for this game has already dropped a half-point for this game with early action seemingly looking low, as neither offense can really give you that much belief in their ability to put up 28 or so points.
With two winless teams looking to rebound after some of the worst defensive performances you'll see all year, I expect both teams on that side of the ball to step up in a big way this week, while their respective offenses still search for their identities. Put it all together and getting a combined score higher then the 40's will be tough this week.
Best Bet: Under 53.5
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CFL Betting Notes - Week 3
David Schwab
Week 2 Betting Recap
This past weekend’s betting action in the CFL featured a trio of games starting with Ottawa’s thrilling 44-41 victory over Saskatchewan on Thursday night as a 4 ½-point home favorite. On Friday night, Edmonton stayed perfect on the year with a 39-23 win at home against British Columbia to easily cover the closing three-point spread.
Hamilton also moved to 2-0 straight-up with Saturday’s 64-14 romp over Toronto as a 4 ½-point road favorite. The Tiger-Cats are the only CFL team to also go 2-0 against the spread.
Monday, July 1
Toronto Argonauts (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -13
Total: 54
Game Overview
Toronto started this season pretty much the way it played last season with a bad loss. The 2017 Grey Cup Champions sunk to just four straight-up victories last year. The Argonauts’ defense allowed a touchdown on six consecutive Hamilton drives in Saturday’s loss, in what was the team’s worst loss ever in this heated East Division battle. James Franklin got the call at quarterback and he threw for 211 yards and no scores against one interception. Mcleod Bethel-Thompson completed nine-of-16 passes for 99 yards and the team’s only touchdown throw.
The Roughriders hung tight against Ottawa last Thursday coming off a tough loss to Hamilton on the road in Week 1. With quarterback Zach Collaros once again sidelined with an injury, Cody Fajardo took over the reins and completed 27 of his 34 passing attempts against the RedBlacks for 360 yards and two touchdowns against zero interceptions. Saskatchewan’s defense allowed 354 yards and three scores through the air.
Betting Trends
-- Saskatchewan has a SU 5-1 record against Toronto in the last six meetings with a 4-2 edge ATS. However, the Argonauts are 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against the Roughriders.
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CFL
Dunkel
Week 3
Monday, July 1
Toronto @ Saskatchewan
Game 687-688
July 1, 2019 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
96.166
Saskatchewan
115.386
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 19
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Saskatchewan
by 13 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(-13 1/2); Over
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CFL
Long Sheet
Week 3
Monday, July 1
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TORONTO (0 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (0 - 2) - 7/1/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1996.
TORONTO is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in July games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-1 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CFL
Week 3
Trend Report
Monday, July 1
Toronto Argonauts
Toronto is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Saskatchewan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Saskatchewan is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Toronto
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