AAF Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Sunday 3/3/19

Alliance of American Football Betting Preview
Week 4

Last week's dive into AAF betting proved to be a good decision, as the picks managed to sweep the board. Birmingham and Atlanta sailed 'over' the number thanks to a late score, while San Diego was in control of their game from the outset and was never really in danger of not covering the number.

Week 3 was another good one for the home teams in the Alliance, as they ended up going 3-1 SU overall and are now 9-3 SU overall. That may come into play for those of you looking at the Saturday games with two home underdogs in Memphis and Salt Lake respectively, but it's the big home favorites on Sunday that have got my attention.

So hopefully these plays from the San Antonio/Birmingham and Atlanta/Arizona games can add a few more winners to the 2-0 ATS start in Alliance Football.

Best Bet #1: San Antonio +8

Birmingham has arguably been the surprise early season success story in this league, as the Iron come into Week 4 with a perfect 3-0 SU record. The Iron are glad things are going well now, because the schedule is quite favorable to them early with four of their first five games at home. There will be a price to play later on in the year for that imbalance with Birmingham finishing the year with four of their final five on the road, but for this week, this looks like a spot that's got the Iron too heavily thought of at this price.

Birmingham has got to 3-0 with tremendous defensive play, allowing a total of 21 points through three games. A solid running attack and great defense is what Birmingham has showed us they are this year, and that's generally not a style conducive to covering bigger numbers like this. Throw in the potential for Birmingham to have an eye on their home game vs Orlando next week which could end up being a battle between unbeatens, and I can't trust Birmingham to score enough to cover a number like this.

While this may sound like a play that's more against Birmingham than for San Antonio, it's really only part of the equation. San Antonio showed the world a couple of weeks ago that they were more than fine in trying to go the shootout route with Orlando in a 37-29 Commanders loss, so putting up points – even against a defense playing well – isn't a huge concern for San Antonio here. Remember, it's just a 10-game season too, so at 1-2 SU, San Antonio knows they already can't afford to lose many more games.

Birmingham is just seen it's stock price soar through the roof in my estimation with this number, as it's still just been three games. The SU record for Birmingham's opponents so far just 1-8 SU, so it's not like they've even played anyone as of yet. This matchup with San Antonio is a step up in class for Birmingham before Orlando and San Diego are up on deck, and it's just too big of a number for really an untested Iron team to cover.

Best Bet #2: Atlanta +15

The biggest spread of Week 4 by far has the nightcap on Sunday already pencilled in as an easy win for the Arizona Hotshots. It's easy to see why as the Hotshots have been the darling of the league since Week 1, and on paper, they've got a clear edge in talent on both sides of the ball. Arizona is worthy of being big favorites against this winless Atlanta team without question, but again, this looks to be just too many points.

Arizona gets to come back home this week after playing their best game of the year here back in Week 1. The Hotshots should come into this game expecting to win, but that's a slippery slope when bettors need you to cover a big number like this. Also, similar to Birmingham's early success being blown a bit out of, Arizona's on-field skill may be a little over-hyped as well. The last two weeks have not been overly impressive for Arizona, and while those were both road games, it is still part of their identity so far.

Conversely, you've got Atlanta who's basically been handed their asses to them for three straight weeks so far. All three of their losses have come by at least 12 points, and from that perspective, a number this big starts to make more sense. After all, nobody wants to back a winless team against this Arizona team that are more of a known commodity.

But the way I look at it is like this. Until a team like Atlanta (Memphis as well) actually wins a game outright, they will continue to get more value on the point spread then they probably should. And with Arizona having the look of a team that could be more sizzle than steak in my eyes, at least in terms of coming into the year as the favorites to be the league's first champions.

That preseason projection made by the oddsmakers may not age as well as some may hope, and this line is priced with those earlier thoughts weighed much too heavily. For as bad as Atlanta's results have been on the scoreboard, this team is going to put a full 60 minutes together soon.

Making the statement of getting your first win against the preseason title favorites would be something spectacular in terms of confidence moving forward should Atlanta get it that far, but at worst they should be able to lose their first game by less than double-digits here.