AAF Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Sunday 2/24/19

Alliance of American Football Betting Preview
Week 3

After sitting back and consuming what the new AAF league has put out for the first two weeks, the bettor in me was always preparing to get involved from an action standpoint, I just needed to see the product first. So far we've seen home teams have a lot of success in the AAF, both SU and ATS, as it's a faster-paced brand of football that has plenty to offer.

And yet, there is still plenty of improvements that could be made, as there would be with any new league, but finding reliable scores (live) and a deep statistical base of information – in terms of box scores, stats etc – is still where the AAF has some major room for improvement. That, and Marvin Lewis and his monotone expressions as a commentator simply don't do it for me.

But betting wise, providing fans and potential bettors with much more data both during the week and in real time is the next step to the AAF continuing to grow in my opinion, and maybe now that payroll within the league isn't such an overwhelming concern, maybe that will be the case going forward. After two weeks though, there are some solid situations in terms of both on-field and betting market scenarios this week that I'm looking to take advantage of from a betting perspective. It's still just football after all and situational angles could end up being quite profitable as the weeks go on.

So here are two plays I've already invested in for Week 3 as hopefully my foray into AAF action turns out to be a profitable one.

Odds per - YouWager.eu

Best Bet #1: Birmingham/Atlanta Over 38.5

'Unders' have predominantly cashed through two weeks of AAF play so far, and with this being the lowest total on the board in Week 3, there are plenty of reasons to believe the 'under' will be a popular side in this game.

For one, Atlanta has looked like one of the worst teams in the league so far, scoring just 6 and 12 points respectively in their first two games, and for the Legends to be up against this Birmingham defense that's allowed a total of 9 points through two games, the first reaction for many to this game has to scream 'under'.

Secondly, Birmingham's offense has made former NFLer Trent Richardson into their workhorse both on the ground and in the passing game, as HC Tim Lewis has looked to bring some “old school” offense to this new league. Richardson still struggles to break free – averaged just 2.2 yards per carry last week – and Lewis has employed that style in part to try and protect an unproven QB in Luis Perez. But as the weeks go on, I expect the Iron to open things up a bit more on offense, and this may be the spot where it comes to fruition.

I say that because in terms of the situation in relation to market sentiment, there aren't going to be many expecting this total to fly 'over' the number. As low as the number is, it's a spot that I like to apply to nearly all sports in regards to totals, in that when you've got two low-scoring teams squaring off – and Birmingham has only scored 26 and 12 points in their first two games – I tend to want to go opposite of the general expectation and that's to play the 'over'. It can be applied the opposite way in terms of playing two high scoring teams 'under' as well, as in terms of market value, the line is always going to be slightly shaded towards that consensus expected outcome, and at 38.5 it's clearly expected that points will be hard to come by here.

And yet, this is Atlanta's first home game of the year so I do think we will get a much better offensive showing from them, and their defense got torched by Orlando last week, so the Iron should expect to have offensive success themselves.

Sure, it might be too early in the season to go against the grain like this in terms of going contrarian with an 'over' selection in a game featuring an Atlanta team that averages 9 points a game, but this number simply looks too low not to take a shot with the high side here.

Odds per - YouWager.eu

Best Bet #2: San Diego Fleet -2.5

This is one of two “revenge” spots for home teams this week from a Week 1 loss – the other being the Arizona/Salt Lake game – and after losing 15-6 to San Antonio in that Week 1 tilt, I do expect San Diego to bounce back in a big way in this return match.

San Diego's win at home over Atlanta last week wasn't that impressive, but they got the job done when they were supposed to, and backing home sides to win SU, which is close to what a -2.5 line entails, is a price I've got no problem laying. This is San Antonio's first road trip of the year, and after coming up short in a shootout with the considered new “powerhouse” of the league in Orlando last week, the Commanders aren't in a favorable spot at all to be at their best.

San Diego's chances in that first meeting were done in by the three INT's their respective QB's threw, but shifting last week to giving Phillip Nelson all the reps under center, as well as, going to a heavy ground attack seemed to provide much more flow to the Fleet's offense. I do expect San Diego's attack to get much more explosive as the weeks go by, as you know HC Mike Martz is an offensive guy and just needs time to fully implement what he wants to in his attack.

Seeing San Antonio's secondary getting torched to the tune of 393 yards against Orlando had to have Martz's eyes light up watching game film this week, and as long as his QB's protect the ball, a home victory by 3+ points should be the end result for the Fleet on Sunday.