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Week 1 of the Alliance of American Football

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 2/6/19

 
Posted : February 6, 2019 12:48 pm
(@shazman)
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AAF Week 1 odds, picks: Atlanta Legends cover vs. Spurrier's Orlando Apollos, plus three more openers
Ben Kercheval

Now it feels like football season. Um ... again.

The first season of the Alliance of American Football begins Saturday, Feb. 9, when the San Diego Fleet take on the San Antonio Commanders. Then, on Sunday, Feb. 10, the Memphis Express travel to the Birmingham Iron while the Salt Lake Stallions play at the Arizona Hotshots. (View the full schedule here.)

Now it's time to make picks. How so, when these teams literally ain't played nobody? I'm going off of what I saw in training camps and people I've spoken with around the league. This is limited information, mind you; we're all going into this blind and it's going to take time to establish even a baseline of knowledge. But it's something.

Also, there may or may not have been a dart board involved. On to the picks.
Atlanta Legends at Orlando Apollos (-5.5), O/U 44.5

The coaching in this matchup is fascinating. Orlando is coached by Steve Spurrier, while Michael Vick is Atlanta's offensive coordinator. However, Vick wasn't even in San Antonio for most of training camp because of media obligations he had ahead of Super Bowl LIII. This is a fun quarterback duel, too, with Atlanta's Aaron Murray and Orlando's Garrett Gilbert. I've gotten the vibe from preseason scrimmages that Orlando is better, but we'll see if that carries over. Also, despite the fun offensive names involved, Week 1 is a tough moment to start clicking on all cylinders.

Pick: Atlanta +5.5, Under 44.5
San Diego Fleet at San Antonio Commanders (-5), O/U 43.5

Word is that San Antonio might have the best offense in the alliance. But, again, how much of that shows up in Week 1? No one is reinventing the wheel, but bringing teams together and introducing some new terminology in this amount of time could slow things down. San Diego linebacker A.J. Tarpley has been getting some buzz out of camp. He could be a problem. Ultimately, though, I haven't gotten the impression San Diego has found a quality replacement at quarterback for Josh Johnson, who was picked up by Washington.

Pick: San Antonio -5, Under 43.5
Memphis Express at Birmingham Iron (-1), O/U 40.5

You'll notice that every home team is favored, but Birmingham has the lowest projected win total of all eight teams, so this is the closest you'll get to a pick 'em. The Iron feel strong about their power running game, led by former Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts running back Trent Richardson, but we'll see if they have anything else to complement it.

Pick: Memphis +1, Under 40.5
Salt Lake Stallions at Arizona Hotshots (-4.5), O/U 42.5

The preseason favorites to win the championship will close out Week 1 and this one should be a lot of fun. Westgate SuperBook feels pretty strongly about Salt Lake (the Stallions have the next-highest odds behind Arizona to win the AAF title at 4/1) and the win total of 4.5 is only two behind Arizona. With the Hotshots, you're definitely getting interesting quarterback play with John Wolford and Trevor Knight. Arizona feels it can win with both of them.

Pick: Arizona -4.5, Over 42.5

 
Posted : February 6, 2019 12:51 pm
(@shazman)
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No, your eyes did not deceive you. The Alliance of American Football's first week ever begins Saturday, Feb. 9 and continues through Sunday, Feb. 10. And, yes, we already have power rankings.

I'll go ahead and answer your inevitable two-part question of "How in the world? And why?"

Because we can and it's fun. Besides, we'll be power ranking all eight AAF teams throughout the 10-week season leading up to the four-team playoff in April. This gives us a starting point moving forward. Also: no, not every team will be ranked "No. 1."
More AAF

AAF 2019: How the new Alliance of American Football stands out in a growing pro football landscape

In all seriousness, I spent a few days down in San Antonio for training camps taking in as much football as possible. So while it's impossible to know everything right now -- even people around the league I spoke with have question marks for every team -- there's at least a baseline of knowledge for what we're working with. (Along those lines, Westgate SuperBook has early odds for this year's champion.)

So let's get to 'em. Here are the first 2019 AAF power rankings, which will be released every Tuesday following the weekend's games.
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1. Arizona Hotshots

I came away with two impressions about Rick Neuheisel's team. The first is that they might have the best one-two punch at quarterback with John Wolford and Trevor Knight. I wouldn't be surprised to see both of them play this season either in complementary roles or until one runs away with the job. The second is that Arizona believes that, in a league that promotes offense, its defensive front is as good as any. For what it's worth, Westgate has the Hotshots as the favorites to win the title this year.
2. Orlando Apollos

One thing to understand about these teams is just how close they are to being NFL-caliber. Most of these players were on a NFL roster in the past two years. So speed isn't lacking. That being said, Orlando had some impressive speed during practices, especially on defense. On offense, expect Garrett Gilbert to start. With coach Steve Spurrier back in his natural element, the Apollos won't lack in entertainment value.
3. San Antonio Commanders

I've heard frequently that the Commanders are expected to be one of the top three or so teams in the alliance. If nothing else, the offense has looked sharp and it could put up the most points of any team this season. One of the names to watch is wide receiver Greg Ward Jr. Houston Cougars fans will remember him as the electric quarterback who helped the program defeat Florida State in the Peach Bowl. He's expected to be one of the starting wideouts and the word on him from camp is that he's going to be a star because of his athleticism.
4. Salt Lake Stallions

Obviously, there's not a whole lot that separates most of these teams right now. Salt Lake has the second-best odds to win this year's title, per Westgate, but doesn't quite have the benefit of some of the bigger names that, say, Orlando has. Still, the Stallions have what appear to be an impressive group of wideouts with -- surprise, surprise -- a heavy Utah presence.
5. Atlanta Legends

Even though Michael Vick is the offensive coordinator, expect the Legends to have a defensive flair thanks to head coach Kevin Coyle, who was promoted when Brad Childress resigned last month. Coyle has plenty of coaching experience, with 17 years in the NFL under his belt, most of which came with the Cincinnati Bengals. On offense, quarterback Aaron Murray has shown he's ready to restart his career in a home market that knows him well.
6. Birmingham Iron

This might be your sleeper team. The Iron have some interesting stories on their offense, including running back Trent Richardson and quarterbacks Blake Sims and Luis Perez, the latter of whom was almost a professional bowler. It remains to be seen if Birmingham stands out at any one position, but early impressions indicate this is a well-rounded team.
7. San Diego Fleet

Mike Martz's team would probably be much higher in these rankings if they had held on to quarterback Josh Johnson, who was picked up by Washington. Now, the Fleet have some questions in that department. Mike Bercovici is the starter, but he's battled for that job for all of camp. However, the wideouts and tight ends have been a bright spot. Pass-catchers Kameron Kelly and Gavin Escobar are projected to be leaders there.
8. Memphis Express

Someone has to be last. The good news for Memphis is once the games get going, these power rankings won't matter. A couple of names to watch, though, is running back Zac Stacy, who could anchor a power running attack, and wide receiver Kayaune Ross, a massive 6-foot-6 target on the outside.

 
Posted : February 6, 2019 12:59 pm
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