Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 1/13/19
L.A. Chargers at New England (CBS, 1:05 p.m. ET)
Line Movement: After the Chargers went up three scores on the Ravens in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s Wild Card game, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out an opener of New England -4 ½ with a total of 48 ½. Soon after, BookMaker.eu sent out the Patriots as five-point favorites with the total listed a point lower at 47 ½.
Los Angeles Road Record: 8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS
New England Home Record: 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS
Head-to-Head: The pair met in the 2017 regular season from Foxboro and New England defeated Los Angeles 21-13 as a 6 ½-point favorite. Including that outcome, the Patriots have won seven of the last eight meetings against the Chargers while going 6-2 versus the number. The lone win for the Bolts came in the 2008 regular season from San Diego.
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers hasn’t had much success against New England in his career, going 1-7 all-time in eight meetings. The signal caller on the other side, Tom Brady, has gone 8-2 all-time versus the Chargers and that includes a 7-0 head-to-head record versus Rivers. The aforementioned win by the Chargers in 2008 featured Matt Cassel at QB for New England, who lost Brady in Week 1 of the regular season to a knee injury.
Playoff Notes: Sunday’s 23-17 win over Baltimore in the Wild Card round pushed the Chargers to 5-5 all-time in the playoffs with Rivers under center. Los Angeles has gone 4-0 in the Wild Card round during this span but are 1-5 combined in the Divisional Playoffs and Championship rounds.
New England has won its last two postseason meetings against the Chargers, the most recent game taking place in the 2007-08 AFC title game. New England won 21-14 at home but Los Angeles covered as a 14-point underdog.
Head coach Bill Belichick and Brady have gone 27-10 in the playoffs with the Patriots. At home, the club has gone 19-3 SU and 12-9-1 ATS and that includes a run of eight straight wins headed into this matchup. Of those eight wins, five have come by double digits.
Total Notes: Including the ‘under’ result against the Ravens in Sunday’s Wild Card matchup, the Chargers have seen the ‘over’ go 5-4 on the road this season. Los Angeles (26.9 PPG) has averaged slightly more points as a visitor this season and the offense has also traveled well too. In four trips to the Eastern Time Zone, the Chargers averaged 31.3 PPG and that led to a 4-0 mark. Los Angeles also defeated Tennessee 20-19 at Wembley Stadium from London in Week 7 and the ‘under’ (46) connected in that matchup.
The Patriots were a solid ‘under’ bet (11-5) this season and most of the winning tickets to the low side came at Gillette Stadium. Despite averaging 32.9 PPG at home, New England saw the ‘under’ go 6-2 and it was largely due to its defense. The unit only surrendered 16.6 PPG at Foxboro, ranked second-best in the league. Make a note that New England faced three playoff teams at home and those clubs scored 28 PPG compared to 9.8 PPG versus clubs not in the postseason.
The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in New England’s last eight playoffs games and during its eight-game playoff winning streak at home, the high side is also 6-2 in those games.
Going back to the 2008 playoffs, the ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters between the Chargers and Patriots and five of the outcomes saw a combined score of 43 points or less.
Philadelphia at New Orleans (FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET)
Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened New Orleans as a nine-point home favorite with a total of 51 ½. BookMaker.eu opened the Saints -7 ½ and pushed the number up to 8, while their opening total was 51 ½.
Philadelphia Road Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS
New Orleans Home Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Head to Head: The Saints blasted the Eagles 48-7 on Nov. 18 as a seven-point home favorite in Week 11. The 41-point loss was the worst setback of the season for Philadelphia, who had Carson Wentz starting at QB. Before that game, the most recent meeting came in 2015 as Philadelphia dropped New Orleans 39-17 at home.
Playoff Notes: The Eagles improved to 4-0 both SU and ATS in the playoffs under head coach Doug Pederson and QB Nick Foles on Sunday as the club nipped Chicago 16-15 on the road int the Wild Card round. Philadelphia has been listed as an underdog in all four of these games.
The last playoff loss for Philadelphia came in 2013-14 postseason, coincidentally it was a 26-24 Wild Card loss to New Orleans at home when Chip Kelly was the coach for the Eagles.
Drew Brees owns a 7-6 career record in the playoffs, 7-5 with New Orleans. During that span, the Saints have played five home games and they’ve gone a perfect 5-0 while outscoring opponents by just under 12 PPG (35.8 to 24). Despite the hot run, the Saints are just 2-3 ATS during this span. Last season, New Orleans stopped Carolina 31-26 but it was clipped late as a 6 ½-point home favorite.
Total Notes: Including Sunday’s result from the Wild Card round, the Eagles have seen the ‘under’ go 10-7 this season. On the road, the ‘under’ is 5-4. The Eagles have watched the total split 2-2 in their last four playoff games.
The ‘under’ went 9-7 for the Saints this season but the ‘over’ produced a 5-3 mark at the Superdome behind an offensive unit that posted 34.1 PPG. Defensively, New Orleans was better on the road (18.5 PPG) than at home (25.6 PPG).
Even though New Orleans scored 48 points against the Eagles in their earlier encounter, the ‘under’ (57) ended up connecting because Philadelphia couldn’t muster up more than seven points.
In the 12 playoff games for Brees, the ‘over’ has gone 9-3. Dating back to 1988, New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ cash in 10 straight postseason games played at the Superdome and that includes a 5-0 mark with Brees under center. Against playoff teams, New Orleans scored 31, 48 and 45 points.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
If the rest of the NFL playoffs are anything like what we saw in Wild Card Weekend, then we are in for a bit of a treat. Only 1 of the 4 games was a one-sided affair, while the other 3 delivered all kinds of drama. The Cowboys edged out the Seahawks, the Eagles survived thanks to a field goal kicks hitting a post and the crossbar, and the Chargers held on grimly in Baltimore after building up what looked to be an unassailable lead.
You have to feel a little bit sorry for the Chargers, as their 12-4 record wasn’t enough to get them the division win, which means that they landed in the #5 spot. That means that LA will be on the road during their playoff run, and that will continue this weekend when they make the always tough trip to Foxboro to face the New England Patriots.
That said, this may be the perfect time to take that trip, as New England were far from convincing through the final month of the season. Still, it is the Patriots who are in as a 4-point favorite, with the point total set at 47½.
Let’s get to our expert betting prediction right now thanks to our YouWager.eu friends.
Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) at New England Patriots (11-5)
When: Sunday, January 13 at 1:05 PM EST
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro
TV: CBS
YouWager.eu Odds: New England Patriots -4 -110 | -200 | U 47½ -110
Why bet on the Los Angeles Chargers
QB Phillip Rivers was outstanding in the regular season, leading a very efficient offense that got most of the headlines for the Chargers. It was the defense that came to play last weekend in Baltimore, though, as they stifled rookie QB Lamar Jackson for almost the entire game. The young man did come to life in the 4th quarter, getting the Ravens back in with a change to win, but the Chargers held on to win 23-17.
While that was certainly a big win, this week is going to be a much tougher task for the Chargers, as they are heading into Gillette Stadium, a venue they have only won once at in their last 9 visits. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 visits, but that may not matter given that the Chargers have covered the spread in each of their last 5 road games.
Why bet on the New England Patriots
Usually at this time of year, we are talking about the Patriots and a potential run to the Super Bowl, but things are a little different this season. They certainly looked very mortal in the final month of the season, dropping a couple of games and struggling to put away the hapless Buffalo Bills.
One thing that cannot be ignored, though, is that this team still managed to get through the regular season without dropping a single game. It should be noted that they have had some injury issues on the offensive side of the football, while also losing Josh Gordon for personal reasons. The Patriots are as tough to beat at home as ever and went 6-2 ATS in home games this season.
Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction
When the Chargers visit Foxboro, we tend to see some point hit the board, with 6 of their last 8 trips there going the way of the OVER. While LA have struggled versus the Patriots, I think this might just be the year when they break through.
Predicted Score: Los Angeles Chargers 27 New England Patriots 24
Total Talk - DP Sunday
January 10, 2019
By Chris David
Three of the four teams in action on Sunday will be making a return trip to the Divisional Playoff round this postseason with the Chargers being the outlier. While L.A. will be making its first appearance in this round since the 2013-14 playoffs, its opponent in New England will be playing in its eighth straight playoff game in the Divisional round.
Similar to my first three playoff pieces, I’m going to break down every game and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. For those keeping track, my leans went 3-3 in the Wild Card round. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Sunday, Jan. 13
L.A. Chargers at New England (CBS, 1:05 p.m. ET)
This total is hovering between 47 and 48 as of Thursday evening and our Matchup Betting Index is showing an early ‘over’ lean. Bettors are also showing a lean to the Chargers and I believe a case can be made for both sides in this game.
The Chargers haven’t lost outside of Los Angeles this season, going 8-1 on the road and the lone loss came to their crosstown rival Rams in Week 3. Including last Sunday’s ‘under’ result versus Baltimore in the Wild Card round, the ‘over’ has gone 5-4 on the road for Los Angeles.
Travelling to the East Coast in back-to-back weeks is a rarity in the NFL playoffs. However, Los Angeles has had success in the Eastern Time Zone this season, going 5-0 and the offense has averaged 29.6 points per game. That production has helped the ‘over’ go 4-1, with the lone ‘under’ coming last week at Baltimore.
Not only is the second straight trip to the East Coast but it’s also the third straight road game for the Chargers. Those following “Total Talk” this season are aware that the “Road Total System” took a dive (0-3) but perhaps it comes through this Sunday. Either way, refresh your memory of the angle here and make a note that the ‘over’ is 44-26 (63%) over the last 12 seasons with this situation.
Playing on the https://forum.thespread.com/football-discussion/105549-nfl-divisional-betting-news-match-ups-and-trends-for-sunday-1-13-19/reply/498512 road anywhere in the NFL is never easy, but Foxboro is another animal altogether. New England went 8-0 at home this season and the ‘under’ went 6-2 in those games, largely due to its defense. The unit only surrendered 16.6 PPG at Foxboro, ranked second-best in the league.
Be aware that the Patriots only faced three playoff teams at home this season and those clubs (Texans, Colts, Chiefs) averaged 28 PPG compared to 9.8 PPG versus clubs not in the postseason.
The one constant at Foxboro has been New England’s offense, no matter the opponent. Quarterback Tom Brady and company averaged 32.9 PPG and the future Hall of Famer has thrived in the Divisional Playoffs recently.
In the last seven appearances in this round, New England is averaging 37.1 PPG and not surprisingly the 'over' has gone 7-0 plus they covered six of those seven games.
2018 - New England 35 vs. Tennessee 14 (Over 48)
2017 - New England 34 vs. Houston 16 (Over 44 ½)
2016 - New England 27 vs. Kansas City 20 (Over 44 ½)
2015 – New England 35 vs. Baltimore 31 (Over 47 ½)
2014 – New England 43 vs. Indianapolis 22 (Over 51 ½)
2013 - New England 41 vs. Houston 28 (Over 50)
2012 – New England 45 vs. Denver 10 (Over 50 ½)
Including a couple of the above results, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in New England’s last eight playoffs games and during its eight-game playoff winning streak at home, the high side is also 6-2 in those games.
While the Patriots have been on a great postseason run to the high side, the Chargers have been the opposite with QB Philip Rivers under center. Rivers has led the Bolts to a 5-5 career record in the playoffs, which includes a 4-0 record in the Wild Card round. Doing the math, you can figure out easily that he’s just 1-5 in Divisional and Championship contests. The Chargers have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 during with Rivers under center and the offense is only averaging 20.6 PPG.
Do you believe Rivers can do enough to get Los Angeles to the AFC Championship? I’m a big fan of the former N.C. State standout but he’s not exactly in great form the last four weeks (3 TDs, 6 INTs) and his 0-7 all-time record against Brady can’t be overlooked or the offensive production (18.1 PPG) either.
Going back to the 2008 playoffs, the ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters between the Chargers and Patriots and five of the outcomes saw a combined score of 43 points or less.
Fearless Prediction: It’s hard to go against the Patriots at Foxboro but my confidence isn’t that high on this year’s squad, especially on defense. They’ve only managed 30 sacks this season, tied for 2nd worst in the league. We’ve seen other quality QBs go into Foxboro this season and have success, plus if you exclude the 10 points put up by Broncos QB Tim Tebow in the 2012 DP matchup, the previous six have combined to average 21.8 PPG. I’m expecting a tight game but my top lean is to Chargers Team Total Over (22).
Philadelphia at New Orleans (FOX, 4:40 p.m. ET)
The Divisional Playoff finale on Sunday between the Saints and Eagles is expected to see some points but not as many as their first encounter. In Week 11, New Orleans blasted Philadelphia 48-7 at home in Week 11 and the ‘under’ (57) connected because the Eagles couldn’t do anything offensively.
Philadelphia was outgained by 350 yards (546 to 196) and it finished the game 3-of-10 on third down plus it committed three turnovers. The New Orleans offense was very sharp, posting 373 yards through the air and 173 on the ground. They could’ve easily hung 56 on the board but they settled for a pair of short field goals.
For Sunday’s rematch, the total opened much lower at 51 ½ and the number has dropped to 51 as of Thursday evening.
The Eagles will have a different QB for the second encounter, this time Nick Foles instead of Carson Wentz. Foles was the catalyst for Philadelphia’s Super Bowl run last season and he’s got them moving again this January. If the Eagles expect to have any chance in this game, they’ll need improvement from that position. In the mid-November loss, Wentz was 19-of-33 for 156 yards with three interceptions against the Saints.
Foles wasn’t spectacular in last week’s 16-15 win at Chicago in the Wild Card round and he was picked off twice in Bears territory. In last year’s playoff run, Foles and the Birds won an ugly opener at home over Atlanta before the offense scored 38 and 41 against the Vikings and Patriots respectively.
Déjà vu in the Big Easy come Sunday?
Including Sunday’s result from the Wild Card round, the Eagles have watched the ‘under’ go 10-7 this season. The ‘under’ went 9-7 for the Saints this season but the ‘over’ produced a 5-3 mark at the Superdome behind an offensive unit that posted 34.1 PPG.
Defensively, New Orleans was better on the road (18.5 PPG) than at home (25.6 PPG) but the form of the unit down the stretch was very solid. If you toss out the meaningless Week 17 loss (33-14) to Carolina at home when it rested its starters, New Orleans only allowed 14.6 PPG in their previous six games and that production helped the ‘under’ go 5-1.
Putting up points in the Merecedes-Benz Superdome during the playoffs has become a common theme. Dating back to 1998, New Orleans has watched the ‘over’ cash in 10 straight postseason games at home. That streak includes a 5-0 ‘over’ mark under quarterback Drew Brees, who has led the Saints to 35.8 PPG in those contests. In 12 career playoff games with Brees, the ‘over’ is 9-3 for the Saints.
Fearless Prediction: Since Doug Pederson became coach of the Eagles, the club has watched the ‘over’ go 18-7-1 and that’s been attributed tom weak defensive numbers (24.5 PPG). The Birds have only allowed 15 points in their last two road games but I still don’t have much confidence in the unit. Having an extra week to prepare is huge in the playoffs and Saints head coach Sean Payton has improved drastically in this spot. After starting 0-3 in his first three years, New Orleans has gone 8-2 off the bye and the average score is 34.5 to 25.6. The ‘over’ has gone 8-2 during this span and could easily be 9-1 if Ravens kicker Justin Tucker makes an extra point in Week 7 this season. I’m going to ride that trend and play the Over (51) in the game and the Saints Team Total Over (29 ½) as well.
By Kevin Rogers
HOW THEY GOT HERE
The Chargers (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS) had high expectations entering their second season in Los Angeles following a 9-7 campaign. The Lightning Bolts ended 2017 by winning nine of their last 12 games with plenty of momentum heading into 2018, but L.A. stumbled to a 1-2 start. From there, the Chargers ripped off six consecutive victories, while limiting five straight opponents to 19 points or less.
Los Angeles had an opportunity to capture the AFC West title with a late surge after shocking Kansas City in Week 15 to improve to 11-3. However, the Chargers lost at home to Baltimore in Week 16, opening up the door for the Chiefs to grab the division title and eventually the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Interestingly enough, the Chargers didn’t lose a road game outside of Los Angeles this season as the Bolts fell to the Rams in Week 3 at the Coliseum.
The Lightning Bolts avenged a Week 16 loss to the Ravens by holding off Baltimore last Sunday, 23-17 as three-point underdogs. After kicking four field goals, Los Angeles finally reached the end zone in the fourth quarter on a Melvin Gordon one-yard touchdown to give the Chargers a 20-3 advantage.
For the 15th time in 16 seasons, the Patriots (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) captured the AFC East championship in spite of compiling their worst record since 2009. New England was the only team in the division to finish with a winning record in the division, while overcoming an early 1-2 start. The Patriots ripped off six consecutive victories, including high-scoring home wins over the Colts and Chiefs and a road triumph over the Bears in a three-week span.
Two late road losses at Miami and Pittsburgh cost New England home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. However, the Patriots rebounded in the final two weeks at home with divisional wins over the Bills and Jets to pick up a first-round bye for the ninth straight season. New England closed the campaign with an 8-1 run to the UNDER, including four consecutive UNDERS at Gillette Stadium.
WHO TO WATCH
Philip Rivers put together another spectacular season for Los Angeles by eclipsing the 30-touchdown mark for the fourth time in six seasons by tossing 32 touchdown passes. Six of Rivers’ 12 interceptions on the season came in the final three weeks, including two against Baltimore in Week 16. Gordon finished shy of his second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season by racking up 885 yards in 12 games, as the Chargers’ tailback missed three games down the stretch. Wide receiver Keenan Allen accumulated 1,196 yards through the air, but was limited to 37 yards against the Ravens last week.
Tom Brady posted his 10th career 4,000-yard passing season with 4,355 yards, while tossing 29 touchdown passes. Amazingly, Brady threw for 300 yards or fewer in 11 of 16 games, compared to 10 efforts of 300 or more yards in 2017, when the Patriots reached the Super Bowl. Rookie running back Sony Michel put up 958 yards in his first season out of Georgia, including three 100-yard games at home. The Patriots didn’t possess a receiver that compiled more than 850 yards (Julian Edelman), while tight end Rob Gronkowski picked up 26 yards or fewer in three of his final four games of the season.
HOME/ROAD SPLITS
Two teams finished with 7-1 road records this season, the Saints and the Chargers. Los Angeles never owned a real home-field advantage at StubHub Center, but the Lightning Bolts closed the season with six consecutive away victories. The Chargers swept their AFC West counterparts on the highway, while winning five games in the underdog role against the Chiefs, Steelers, Seahawks, Browns, and Ravens.
The Patriots were the lone team in the NFL that didn’t lose a home contest by going 8-0 at Gillette Stadium for the first time since 2013. Bill Belichick’s squad helped bettors by putting together a 6-2 ATS record at home, including a 3-1 ATS mark as a single-digit home favorite. Since allowing 40 points to the Chiefs in Week 6, the Patriots yielded a total of 42 points in their final four contests at Gillette.
SERIES HISTORY
This series has been advantage Brady over Rivers as New England is 7-1 against San Diego/Los Angeles in the last eight meetings. The lone victory for Rivers and the Chargers in this span came in 2008 at home, but Brady was sidelined due to an ACL injury.
The two teams didn’t meet this season, but the Patriots captured the previous matchup in 2017 at Gillette Stadium, 21-13 to cash as 6 ½-point favorites. Following an 87-yard touchdown run by Gordon midway through the first quarter, the Patriots scored the next 18 points, including three field goals by Stephen Gostkowski, who kicked four in the game.
Since 2006, the Patriots have eliminated the Chargers twice in the playoffs. In the last matchup in the 2007 AFC Championship, the Patriots held off the Lightning Bolts, 21-12, but San Diego cashed as 14-point underdogs in the season that New England won 19 consecutive games before losing in the Super Bowl to the Giants. The Chargers were held out of the end zone that day in spite of intercepting Brady three times.
PLAYOFF HISTORY
The Chargers are in the playoffs for only the second time since 2010, as Los Angeles advanced to the divisional playoffs in 2013. Rivers improved to 4-0 in the Wild Card round in his career following last week’s win over Baltimore, but is 1-4 in the Divisional Playoffs. The only road win in the Divisional round came in 2007 at Indianapolis, prior to the AFC Championship loss at New England.
The Patriots have won seven consecutive games in the Divisional round, including a 35-14 rout of Tennessee last season. New England has covered in six of those games, while last losing in this round in 2010 to the Jets. New England is seeking its eighth consecutive appearance in the AFC Championship, but the Pats will have to travel to Kansas City if they win, as they have lost their last two conference title games on the road.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
Los Angeles survived last week’s grind-it-out win at Baltimore as VegasInsider.com NFL expert Joe Nelson looks back, “Kicking woes and big turnovers have been the norm for the Chargers in big games but a lot went right as Los Angeles was victorious in a tough battle with Baltimore last week. The Chargers had a 243-229 yardage edge and won with five Mike Badgley field goals, needing to survive a tense fourth quarter as the Ravens waged a formidable comeback threat. The Chargers gained 5.0 yards per pass attempt and just 2.7 yards per rush in last week’s win and now draw a third consecutive road game, again getting an early start east coast game against a Patriots squad that has hosted a divisional round game in nine straight seasons.”
Will this be a shootout or a defensive battle on Sunday? “The scoring numbers in the regular season were nearly identical for these teams sitting within a half-point on average on both sides of the ball. Most statistical categories paint a rather even contest with New England slightly more productive on offense and the Chargers slightly stronger on defense. The big outliers come on the sidelines with Belichick’s all-time great track record with five Super Bowl titles with a 28-11 postseason record. Anthony Lynn was a winner in his first playoff game last week, besting another head coach with an all-time great postseason record and now 22-11 in his career his win percentage comes close to Belichick,” Nelson notes.
FUTURE ODDS
The Patriots enter Sunday’s matchup at 5/2 odds to win the AFC Championship at BetOnline.ag, while the Chargers aren’t far behind at 4/1. As far as Super Bowl odds go, New England is 6/1, while Los Angeles is 8/1. New England opened up as 4 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that number has dipped to -4 at many books, while the total sits at 47 ½.
Chargers at Patriots
Kevin Rogers
HOW THEY GOT HERE
The Chargers (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS) had high expectations entering their second season in Los Angeles following a 9-7 campaign. The Lightning Bolts ended 2017 by winning nine of their last 12 games with plenty of momentum heading into 2018, but L.A. stumbled to a 1-2 start. From there, the Chargers ripped off six consecutive victories, while limiting five straight opponents to 19 points or less.
Los Angeles had an opportunity to capture the AFC West title with a late surge after shocking Kansas City in Week 15 to improve to 11-3. However, the Chargers lost at home to Baltimore in Week 16, opening up the door for the Chiefs to grab the division title and eventually the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Interestingly enough, the Chargers didn’t lose a road game outside of Los Angeles this season as the Bolts fell to the Rams in Week 3 at the Coliseum.
The Lightning Bolts avenged a Week 16 loss to the Ravens by holding off Baltimore last Sunday, 23-17 as three-point underdogs. After kicking four field goals, Los Angeles finally reached the end zone in the fourth quarter on a Melvin Gordon one-yard touchdown to give the Chargers a 20-3 advantage.
For the 15th time in 16 seasons, the Patriots (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) captured the AFC East championship in spite of compiling their worst record since 2009. New England was the only team in the division to finish with a winning record in the division, while overcoming an early 1-2 start. The Patriots ripped off six consecutive victories, including high-scoring home wins over the Colts and Chiefs and a road triumph over the Bears in a three-week span.
Two late road losses at Miami and Pittsburgh cost New England home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. However, the Patriots rebounded in the final two weeks at home with divisional wins over the Bills and Jets to pick up a first-round bye for the ninth straight season. New England closed the campaign with an 8-1 run to the UNDER, including four consecutive UNDERS at Gillette Stadium.
WHO TO WATCH
Philip Rivers put together another spectacular season for Los Angeles by eclipsing the 30-touchdown mark for the fourth time in six seasons by tossing 32 touchdown passes. Six of Rivers’ 12 interceptions on the season came in the final three weeks, including two against Baltimore in Week 16. Gordon finished shy of his second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season by racking up 885 yards in 12 games, as the Chargers’ tailback missed three games down the stretch. Wide receiver Keenan Allen accumulated 1,196 yards through the air, but was limited to 37 yards against the Ravens last week.
Tom Brady posted his 10th career 4,000-yard passing season with 4,355 yards, while tossing 29 touchdown passes. Amazingly, Brady threw for 300 yards or fewer in 11 of 16 games, compared to 10 efforts of 300 or more yards in 2017, when the Patriots reached the Super Bowl. Rookie running back Sony Michel put up 958 yards in his first season out of Georgia, including three 100-yard games at home. The Patriots didn’t possess a receiver that compiled more than 850 yards (Julian Edelman), while tight end Rob Gronkowski picked up 26 yards or fewer in three of his final four games of the season.
HOME/ROAD SPLITS
Two teams finished with 7-1 road records this season, the Saints and the Chargers. Los Angeles never owned a real home-field advantage at StubHub Center, but the Lightning Bolts closed the season with six consecutive away victories. The Chargers swept their AFC West counterparts on the highway, while winning five games in the underdog role against the Chiefs, Steelers, Seahawks, Browns, and Ravens.
The Patriots were the lone team in the NFL that didn’t lose a home contest by going 8-0 at Gillette Stadium for the first time since 2013. Bill Belichick’s squad helped bettors by putting together a 6-2 ATS record at home, including a 3-1 ATS mark as a single-digit home favorite. Since allowing 40 points to the Chiefs in Week 6, the Patriots yielded a total of 42 points in their final four contests at Gillette.
SERIES HISTORY
This series has been advantage Brady over Rivers as New England is 7-1 against San Diego/Los Angeles in the last eight meetings. The lone victory for Rivers and the Chargers in this span came in 2008 at home, but Brady was sidelined due to an ACL injury.
The two teams didn’t meet this season, but the Patriots captured the previous matchup in 2017 at Gillette Stadium, 21-13 to cash as 6 ½-point favorites. Following an 87-yard touchdown run by Gordon midway through the first quarter, the Patriots scored the next 18 points, including three field goals by Stephen Gostkowski, who kicked four in the game.
Since 2006, the Patriots have eliminated the Chargers twice in the playoffs. In the last matchup in the 2007 AFC Championship, the Patriots held off the Lightning Bolts, 21-12, but San Diego cashed as 14-point underdogs in the season that New England won 19 consecutive games before losing in the Super Bowl to the Giants. The Chargers were held out of the end zone that day in spite of intercepting Brady three times.
PLAYOFF HISTORY
The Chargers are in the playoffs for only the second time since 2010, as Los Angeles advanced to the divisional playoffs in 2013. Rivers improved to 4-0 in the Wild Card round in his career following last week’s win over Baltimore, but is 1-4 in the Divisional Playoffs. The only road win in the Divisional round came in 2007 at Indianapolis, prior to the AFC Championship loss at New England.
The Patriots have won seven consecutive games in the Divisional round, including a 35-14 rout of Tennessee last season. New England has covered in six of those games, while last losing in this round in 2010 to the Jets. New England is seeking its eighth consecutive appearance in the AFC Championship, but the Pats will have to travel to Kansas City if they win, as they have lost their last two conference title games on the road.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
Los Angeles survived last week’s grind-it-out win at Baltimore as NFL expert Joe Nelson looks back, “Kicking woes and big turnovers have been the norm for the Chargers in big games but a lot went right as Los Angeles was victorious in a tough battle with Baltimore last week. The Chargers had a 243-229 yardage edge and won with five Mike Badgley field goals, needing to survive a tense fourth quarter as the Ravens waged a formidable comeback threat. The Chargers gained 5.0 yards per pass attempt and just 2.7 yards per rush in last week’s win and now draw a third consecutive road game, again getting an early start east coast game against a Patriots squad that has hosted a divisional round game in nine straight seasons.”
Will this be a shootout or a defensive battle on Sunday? “The scoring numbers in the regular season were nearly identical for these teams sitting within a half-point on average on both sides of the ball. Most statistical categories paint a rather even contest with New England slightly more productive on offense and the Chargers slightly stronger on defense. The big outliers come on the sidelines with Belichick’s all-time great track record with five Super Bowl titles with a 28-11 postseason record. Anthony Lynn was a winner in his first playoff game last week, besting another head coach with an all-time great postseason record and now 22-11 in his career his win percentage comes close to Belichick,” Nelson notes.
FUTURE ODDS
The Patriots enter Sunday’s matchup at 5/2 odds to win the AFC Championship, while the Chargers aren’t far behind at 4/1. As far as Super Bowl odds go, New England is 6/1, while Los Angeles is 8/1. New England opened up as 4 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that number has dipped to -4 at many books, while the total sits at 47 ½.
__________________
Eagles at Saints
Tony Mejia
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-8. 51.5), 4:40 pm ET, FOX
To be the champ, you’ve got to beat the champs.
Ric Flair didn’t come up with that as an original thought, but he’s gotten full credit for popularizing it, which is fair. “To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man” doesn’t necessarily ring true in the NFL since you can win a Super Bowl without having to go through the reigning champion, but the Eagles managed to do exactly that last Feb. 4, dethroning New England.
The Saints, currently the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl (5-to-2 at Westgate Superbook), adding the Eagles to their list of victims would make for a nice touch. If Philadelphia pulls off an upset, it would increase the legend of backup QB and reigning Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles in addition to putting them one win away from another shot at a ring.
The Rams await the winner of this final divisional playoff matchup and will either visit the Saints for a duel between the NFC’s top-scoring teams or host the Eagles for the second time in just over a month.
Philadelphia is only alive because they survived the Rams in L.A. in Week 15 as nearly-two touchdown underdogs, won a wild game against the Texans at home the next Sunday and then blanked the overmatched Redskins while getting help from the Bears to close December. In a morbid coincidence if you’re Chicago, the fact it went into Minnesota and upset the Vikings in Week 17, set up last week’s game against the Eagles.
Chicago kicker Cody Parkey got his game-winning field goal attempt tipped and ultimately clanked off the upright before falling harmlessly to the ground to ensure an upset, so the Eagles are clearly on their ninth life as they invade the Superdome.
Foles executed on a fourth-down TD pass to Golden Tate to finish off a wild go-ahead drive against the NFL’s most feared defense last weekend and now looks to succeed where predecessor Carson Wentz failed. Back on Nov. 18, the Saints intercepted Philly’s franchise QB three times in a 48-7 rout, dropping the Eagles to 4-6 on the season.
What makes the Eagles most dangerous in this return trip to the Superdome is that they’ve stared their demise in the eyes multiple times and have lived to tell about it. After getting back to .500, Wentz being lost for the season after an OT loss to the Cowboys saw the team’s odds plummet from 30-to-1 to win the NFC and 60-to-1 to repeat as champs to 150-to-1 and 300-to-1 at the Westgate Superbook.
They’ve come all the way back by getting healthier and riding Foles’ arm, which has really produced results down the stretch. The Eagles got only a Josh Adams touchdown run in the first meeting between these teams and amassed 156 yards through the air, so head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Mike Groh have to put a more effective game plan together to face a Saints defense that is often overshadowed by Drew Brees and the flashy offense but has been great in its own right.
Although they gave up 61 points in the final two regular-season games, the Saints went through a six-game stretch between Nov. 11-Dec. 17 where they allowed an average of 12.3 points. Cameron Jordan and Sheldon Rankins have been tremendous up front, while the New Orleans secondary has really flourished. Philadelphia will likely try to break big plays to tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, but they’ll need to establish the running game to truly have success on the road. The Saints ranked second in the NFL in allowing just 80.2 yards per game.
Left tackle Jason Peters was the Eagles’ biggest injury concern last week but played well through a nagging quad issue and is good to go here. The Eagles didn’t play a perfect game against the Bears last week, but did enough when it had to against an elite defense to inspire confidence that they’ll be able to execute inside a dome without the elements being a factor.
It’s a given that the Saints will move the ball against an Eagles defense they torched so effectively that five different players scored touchdowns, which doesn’t include Brees, who threw for four. New Orleans handed the Eagles the worst loss ever suffered by a Super Bowl champ, the most lopsided setback suffered under Pederson.
There are a number of names back from a championship-winning defense, but it hasn’t exactly been championship-caliber at all this season. Fletcher Cox remains a force up front, but a secondary that was viewed as a weakness before holding up nicely in Chicago will now get a grueling test from Brees, an effective group of receivers and running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Philadelphia will get a key body back, which you can read about below in the injury report.
New Orleans went 6-2 at home this season, faltering in the season opener against Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Tampa Bay and a setback to Carolina in the meaningless finale. The Eagles are 5-4 on the road after winning in Chicago and are 0-2 in enclosed stadiums.
This will be the second playoff game matching Brees and Foles. The teams met in the Wild Card round after the ’13 season in a game that kicker Shayne Graham won on a 32-yard FG at the gun after Ertz game Philadelphia the lead on a touchdown reception from Foles with 4:54 to go. New Orleans also beat Philadelphia in the divisional round of ’06 season, winning 27-24 by keeping the Eagles out of the end zone after the opening drive of the second half. All of the results of Brees’ encounters against Philly since joining the Saints are available below.
New Orleans would prefer a lot less drama in this contest than it has had to survive through in the last two playoff matchups with the Eagles, but all that matters is getting through. For that reason, taking the points might be tempting since Philadelphia has been so hard to eliminate these past few weeks. Clearly, a fighting spirit remains. Is there anything left? The Eagles are 2-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this season.
Philadelphia Eagles
Projected season win total: 10.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Preseason odds to win NFC East: 5/7
Odds to win NFC (Preseason/Current): 7/1 to 9/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (Preseason/Current): 14/1 to 18/1
New Orleans Saints
Projected season win total: 9.5 (Over -140, Under +120)
Preseason Odds to win NFC South: 6/5
Odds to win NFC (Preseason/Current): 7/1 to 2/1
Odds to win Super Bowl (Preseason/Current): 14/1 to 9/2
FUTURES OUTCOMES/LINE MOVEMENT
The Saints came through as the NFC South favorite, while Dallas cashed at +350 over the favored defending champion Eagles (5-to-7) to win NFC East futures. The Eagles' NFC and Super Bowl odds were actually better prior to Week 1 than they are entering this divisional playoff since they went into last week's Wild card game against the Bears at 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and 15-to-1 to win the NFC before seeing those odds improve to their current levels post-upset.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Saints opened at -10.5 at some offshores after Philadelphia upset Chicago, but most books favored New Orleans by 9. Money came in on the defending champs to knock the spread down to 7.5 earlier in the week, but most books now list the Saints as a chalk of 8/8.5. New Orleans opened at -400 on the money line and has seen that number come down to the -350 to -380 range. If you like Philly outright, a payout on a road upset at the Superdome would get you +300 to +325.
INJURY CONCERNS
New Orleans is healthier than it has been all season, giving talented tackle Terron Armstead (shoulder) and guard Larry Warford (knee) a clean bill of health to help protect Brees.
The Eagles are without multiple regulars in their secondary, but that's not a new issue and the replacements who have taken their spots really stepped up last week. Reinforcements are on their way since CB Sidney Jones (hamstring) is set to return. WR Mike Wallace (ankle) is also in line to return after missing the past few weeks.
TOTAL TALK
Sunday afternoon's total opened at 51 or 51.5 depending on the book. It got down to 50.5 at most shops mid-week but is now back in the 51/51.5 range. There are no weather concerns to monitor since this divisional playoff will be played indoors. The 'over' has prevailed in the last two Saints games but still went just 7-9 due to totals being set so high on the NFL's third-highest scoring team. This will likely be the 14th game involving New Orelans that closes with a number higher than 50. The 'under' is 10-7 in Eagles' games..
RECENT MEETINGS (New Orleans 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS last eight; OVER 5-3)
11/18/18 New Orleans vs. Philadelphia 48-7 (NO -7, 56.5)
10/11/15 Philadelphia 39-17 vs. New Orleans (PHI -6, 49.5)
1/4/14 New Orleans 26-24 at Philadelphia (NO +3, 54.5)
11/5/12 New Orleans 28-13 vs. Philadelphia (NO -3, 52)
9/20/09 New Orleans 48-22 at Philadelphia (NO -2.5, 46)
12/23/07 Philadelphia 38-23 at New Orleans (PHI +3, 48)
1/13/07 New Orleans 27-24 vs. Philadelphia (PHI +4.5, 48.5)
10/15/06 New Orleans 27-24 vs. Philadelphia (NO +3, 47)
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NFL TRENDS
Sunday, January 13
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LA CHARGERS (13 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 5) - 1/13/2019, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 87-56 ATS (+25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
LA CHARGERS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
LA CHARGERS is 101-71 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA (10 - 7) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 3) - 1/13/2019, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL Divisional Round Exotic Betting Options
The missed kick by Chicago's Cody Parkey not only ended the Bears season a week ago, it killed my three-week run of cashing on these teaser plays. You won't hear me complaining too much though considering the day before there was the late TD by Seattle to backdoor the first half of last week's teaser, but to essentially lose that Bears selection twice – Chicago giving up the go-ahead score on 4th down in the final two minutes, and then missing the kick – did sting for awhile.
There has been plenty of time to mourn last week's selections though as it's onto this week and the Divisional round. We've got four home favorites coming off rest, a favorable scenario in itself for those squads, but only one of them makes it into this week's teaser. Let's get right to it:
Odds per - BetOnline.ag
Divisional Round: Two-team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet
L.A. Chargers (+11) – New Orleans (-1)
I'll begin with the Chargers as they are the underdog that's being teased up through the key numbers of +7 and +10 this week.
LA has the unenviable task of going into New England and beating the Patriots at home in the playoffs (New England is 8-0 SU last eight home playoff games), but have already received some support from the market at their +4 spread that was a little higher at opening. And while recent history for visiting teams in New England isn't exactly on the Chargers side, this team has been phenomenal on the road all year long (8-1 SU) and should find ways to be in this game until the end.
For one, as impressive as the Chargers win over Baltimore was on both sides of the ball, L.A. understands that they are going to have to be much more efficient offensively against New England. LA rarely found ways to cap off great drives with TD's a week ago (5-for-6 on FG attempts), and that should change against this week.
To only get one TD on the seven of 13 scoring drives the Chargers had a week ago (one TD, six FG tries) is bound to regress upwards back towards the mean, especially with the mindset for strategy from a Chargers perspective completely different with Tom Brady and not Lamar Jackson on the other side of the field. L.A. can't expect to win a game like this by continually settling for FG's, and with LA having the 4th best points per play number in the NFL this year (0.446), I fully expect the Chargers to take full advantage in terms of scoring TD's with the majority of opportunities they get.
Defensively, L.A. showed their versatility a week ago thanks to DC Gus Bradley's game plan of playing 7+ DB's on the field for the majority of snaps against Jackson. The plan will be much different this time around with a non-mobile QB like Brady back there, but Bradley has had plenty of success as a defensive guy in this league – in Seattle, building that Jacksonville defense, and now in L.A. – and he'll have some wrinkles for Brady and Belichick without question.
Add it all up, barring multiple turnovers by the Chargers offense, this game should be a one-possession game for it's entirety, if not seeing the Chargers as the side playing with the lead for the bulk of it and potentially holding on for the outright win late.
In terms of teasing the Saints down, I'm going back to the well in going against the “Foles Magic” in Philly as this is where their magical 12-month playoff luck comes to an end. Saints fans are known to be proud Voodoo supporters as it is, and the city of New Orleans would be a fitting place for a magical run to end.
All jokes aside, I'm not sure how the Eagles find a way to keep up with the Saints enough to prevent New Orleans from winning this game SU. Philly may be able to get a late-score (or give up a late score) to cover the actual +8 point spread that's out there right now, but the Saints aren't a team I'm about to step in front of in terms of winning outright at home. New Orleans saw their season bookend with home losses – Week 17 with everyone resting – but they dominated the majority of foes in-between that span, and would not shock anyone by doing the same this week.