Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 12/29/18
By Brian Edwards
**Florida vs. Michigan**
-- This is the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl pitting the Big Ten vs. the SEC in Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
-- Michigan has absolutely dominated Florida in football and basketball for decades! In the Round of 32 at the 1988 NCAA Basketball Tournament, the Wolverines ended Vernon Maxwell’s UF career out in Salt Lake City by dealing out a 108-85 pimpslap. I was at Jerry World for the 2013 South Region finals when Nik Stauskas drained a plethora of 3-balls and sent the Gators packing from the Elite Eight for the fourth straight season in a blowout. The Wolverines beat UF 38-30 at the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day of 2003. Then at the Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day of 2008, Michigan bested Florida by a 41-35 count to send Lloyd Carr into retirement as a winner. In the 2016 Outback Bowl, Michigan destroyed UF 41-7.
-- When these schools met at Jerry World in Week 1 of the 2017 season, Florida raced out to a 17-3 lead thanks to a pair of first-half pick-sixes from C.J. Henderson and Duke Dawson. However, Jim Harbaugh’s club would respond with 30 unanswered points and win 33-17 as a five-point favorite. It was the first career start for Feleipe Franks, who was yanked in the third quarter after completing 5-of-9 passes for 75 yards. He coughed up a crucial fumble trying to scramble for a first down.
-- As of early Friday, most books had Michigan (10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as a six-point favorite with a total of 50.5. The Gators were +190 on the money line. The Wolverines opened as 7.5-point ‘chalk,’ but the decisions of four players to skip the game has led to a 1.5-point adjustment.
-- Michigan will be without LB Devin Bush, DE Rashan Gary, RB Karan Higdon and OT Juwan Bushell-Beatty. Bush produced a team-best 79 tackles along with five sacks, four tackles for loss, six passes broken up and a pair of QB hurries. Gary, who is pegged as a first-round pick by most NFL Draft experts, recorded 44 tackles, four TFL’s, 3.5 sacks and five QB hurries in nine games. Higdon rushed for 1,178 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Bushell-Beatty started 11 games this year and 19 in his career.
-- Michigan ripped off a 10-game winning streak after losing its opener 24-17 at Notre Dame. Harbaugh’s bunch was poised to win the Big Ten East and advance to the College Football Playoff if it could win its regular-season finale at Ohio State and follow up that win with another vs. Northwestern the next week at the Big Ten Championship Game. But those hopes were shattered in 60 minutes of football at The ‘Shoe, as the Buckeyes blasted the Wolverines 62-39 as 4.5-point home underdogs. Shea Patterson completed 20-of-34 passes for 187 yards and three TDs with one interception. Higdon rushed for 72 yards on 15 attempts and Nico Collins had four receptions for 91 yards and two TDs.
-- Patterson, the transfer from Ole Miss who played two seasons for the Rebels and was granted immediate eligibility in Ann Arbor, connected on 64.8 percent of his throws for 2,364 yards with a 21/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Patterson ran for 268 yards and two TDs with a 4.1 YPC average. His favorite target is Collins, who has 33 catches for 552 yards and six TDs. Donovan Peoples-Jones has 39 receptions for 541 yards and seven TDs, while Zach Gentry has 30 grabs for 475 yards and two TDs.
-- With Higdon out, the ground game will lean on Chris Evans and Tru Wilson. Evans has 403 rushing yards, four TDs and a 5.4 YPC average, while Wilson has run for 355 yards and one TD while averaging 6.0 YPC.
-- Michigan has compiled a 1-2 record both SU and ATS in three games as a single-digit favorite this year.
-- Michigan is ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense, second in pass defense, 16th at defending the run and 12th in scoring ‘D’ (17.6 points per game).
-- Michigan is 7-5 in 12 bowl games against SEC opponents since 1984.
-- After a nightmare 2017 campaign ended in a 4-7 record and saw Jim McElwain dismissed after a torturous tenure that covered (nearly) three seasons, Florida (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) enjoyed an excellent initial year on Dan Mullen’s watch. Mullen, who was UF’s offensive coordinator in 2006 and 2008 when it won a pair of national championships, spent nine seasons as head coach at Mississippi State before returning to Gainesville.
-- UF’s three losses came at home vs. Kentucky (27-16), vs. Georgia (36-17 in Jacksonville) and at home vs. Missouri (38-17). The Gators’ best victories were at Mississippi State (13-6) and vs. LSU (27-19). They posted comeback wins at Vanderbilt (37-27 after being down 21-3) and vs. South Carolina (35-31 after trailing 31-14), in addition to crushing arch rivals Tennessee (47-21) and FSU (41-14) at Neyland and Doak Campbell Stadiums, respectively.
-- Florida brings a three-game winning streak to The ATL after trouncing the Seminoles as an 8.5-point road ‘chalk.’ The Gators produced 24 first downs and 536 yards of total offense, while the ‘Noles had only 15 first downs and 293 yards. Franks completed 16-of-26 passes for 254 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also ran 12 times for 46 yards. Lamical Perine rushed for 129 yards and one TD on 13 carries, while Jordan Scarlett had 88 rushing yards and one TD on 20 attempts. Trevon Grimes had five receptions for 118 yards and one TD, while Van Jefferson caught four balls for 92 yards and one TD.
-- Franks has completed 58.5 percent of his throws for 2,284 yards with a 23/6 TD-INT ratio. He passed his stats with eight TD passes without an interception in a pair of games against FCS foes, but the Wakulla County (FL.) High School product was nonetheless more effective than most (my hand is raised) thought he’s be, which is a credit to Mullen. Franks proved to be a tough, physical runner with 276 rushing yards and six TDs.
-- Gamblers should expect true freshman QB Emory Jones to be a part of UF’s offensive plan. Jones has played in only three games so he’ll still retain his redshirt status per the NCAA’s new rules. He completed 12-of-16 passes for 125 yards and two TDs without an interception. Jones ran for 27 yards on 14 attempts.
-- Perine has rushed for a team-high 750 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.9 YPC. Scarlett, who sat all of 2017 due to a suspension, returned to produce 717 rushing yards, four TDs and a 5.9 YPC average.
-- Jefferson, a transfer from Ole Miss who used to play with Patterson, hauled in a team-best 31 receptions for 439 yards and six TDs. Grimes, a transfer from Ohio State who, like Jefferson, is a former five-star recruit, has 25 catches for 366 yards and two TDs. Josh Hammon has 26 grabs for 308 yards and four TDs, and Freddie Swain has 14 catches for 265 yards and five TDs.
-- Florida WR Tyrie Cleveland is ‘out’ after breaking his collarbone in the win at FSU. Cleveland has 18 receptions for 212 yards and three TDs.
-- UF was an underdog three times this year, going 2-1 both SU and ATS.
-- UF is ranked 27th in the nation in total defense, eighth at defending the pass and 22nd in scoring ‘D’ (20.4 PPG).
-- UF owns an 8-3 record in 11 bowl games since 2005. The only loss to a foe not named Michigan was the 33-23 loss to Louisville at the 2012 Sugar Bowl.
-- The ‘over’ went 5-2 in Michigan’s last seven regular-season games to improve to 7-5 overall. The Wolverines have seen their games average combined scores of 54.4 PPG.
-- The ‘over’ has hit in three straight UF games and is 5-1-1 in its last seven contests to improve to 7-4-1 overall. The Gators have watched their games average combined scores of 54.9 PPG.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN.
**South Carolina vs. Virginia**
-- This is the Belk Bowl in Charlotte that’ll be played at Bank of America Stadium. As of early Friday, most betting shops had South Carolina (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 54. The Cavaliers were +180 to win outright (risk $100 to win $180).
-- South Carolina finished fourth in the SEC East with a 4-4 record in league play. Will Muschamp has the Gamecocks bowling for a third straight season. They rallied to beat Michigan 26-19 as an eight-point underdog in last year’s Outback Bowl. During Muschamp’s first season, South Carolina lost 46-39 to South Florida in overtime at the Birmingham Bowl but took the money as a 10-point underdog.
-- South Carolina’s best wins were at Vanderbilt (37-14) and vs. Missouri (37-35). The Gamecocks lost heartbreakers vs. Texas A&M (26-23) and at Florida (35-31). In their rivalry game on Nov. 24, they were without nine injured defensive players at Clemson. Facing one of the nation’s premier defenses, USC rolled up 600 yards of total offense thanks to junior QB Jake Bentley, who completed 32-of-50 passes for 510 yards and five TDs compared to just one interception. Unfortunately, the Tigers racked up 744 yards of offense, including 351 rushing yards. Deebo Samuel had a monster game, hauling in 10 receptions for 210 yards and three TDs. Shi Smith caught nine balls for 109 yards and one TD.
-- Since USC had its Week 3 home game vs. Marshall cancelled due to a hurricane, it played host to Akron on Dec. 1 to get a 12th game in. Muschamp’s club saw its 4-0 ATS surge snapped in a 28-3 win over the Zips as a 28.5-point home favorite. A streak of four consecutive ‘overs’ also came to a halt with the 31 combined points dropping ‘under’ the 55-point tally. Mon Denson ran for 110 yards on 17 carries and Rico Dowdle produced 86 rushing yards on 13 totes. Bentley hit 14-of-27 throws for 199 yards and three TDs compared to interceptions. Bryan Edwards had five receptions for 109 yards and one TD, while Samuel had four catches for 33 yards and two TDs.
-- Samuel, who was a first-team All-SEC return specialist and a second-team All-SEC WR, will skip the bowl game to stay healthy for the NFL Draft. Samuel had a sensational career, scoring six TDs in the first 2.5 games of the 2017 campaign before sustaining a season-ending leg fracture. He finished this season with 62 receptions for 882 yards and 11 TDs, in addition to 570 yards on kickoff returns and one TD. For his career, Samuel played in 30 games and produced 148 catches for 2,076 yards and 16 TDs. He had 1,219 yards on kick returns and four TDs and rushed for 154 yards and seven TDs with a 6.2 YPC average.
-- Bentley has completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 2,953 yards with a 27/12 TD-INT ratio. He also has two rushing scores. For his career, Bentley has a 54/28 TD-INT ratio and eight rushing TDs.
-- Edwards, a junior who hasn’t announced whether he’s going to return to school skip his senior season to enter the NFL Draft yet, has 52 receptions for 809 yards and seven TDs. Smith, a true sophomore who is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. UVA for undisclosed reasons, has 39 catches for 597 yards and four TDs.
-- South Carolina has four quality RBs. Dowdle rushed for a team-best 638 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC. Denson has 415 rushing yards, two TDs and a 5.1 YPC average, while Ty’Son Williams has 319 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.8 YPC average. A.J. Turner has run for 294 yards and two TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC.
-- USC has been a single-digit favorite just twice this year, posting a 2-0 SU record and a 1-1 ATS mark.
-- Virginia (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) is in the postseason for a second straight year for the first time since 2004-2005. During the third season of Bronco Mendenhall’s tenure, UVA won seven games for the first time since 2011. The Cavaliers got destroyed 49-7 by Navy as 1.5-point underdogs in last year’s Military Bowl.
-- UVA has been an underdog five times this season, going 4-1 ATS with a pair of outright wins at Duke (28-14) and vs. Miami (16-13).
-- Mendenhall’s team took a 6-2 record into a home game vs. Pitt on Nov. 2. However, the Panthers came to Charlottesville and won a 23-13 decision as seven-point road underdogs. UVA would bounce back to top Liberty 45-24, only to lose back-to-back overtime games at Ga. Tech (30-27) and at Va. Tech (34-31) to close the regular season.
-- Virginia was a four-point road favorite to snap a 14-game losing streak against the Hokies, who raced out to a 14-0 halftime lead. UVA signal caller Bryce Perkins hit Joe Reed for a pair of third-quarter TD passes of 29 and 75 yards and the Cavs trailed 17-14 heading into the final stanza. After Va. Tech extended its lead to 24-14 on the opening play of the fourth quarter, UVA countered with a 12-yard TD run from Jordan Ellis to cut the deficit to 24-21 with 12:55 remaining. Then with 6:51 left, the Cavs took their first lead on a 29-yard scoring strike from Perkins to Hasise Dubois. They would go up 31-24 on Brian Delaney’s 28-yard field goal with 2:41 left. Va. Tech pulled even when Hezekiah Grimsley recovered his teammate’s fumble in the end zone with 1:51 remaining. In the extra session, the Hokies had the ball first and went ahead on a 42-yard FG by Brian Johnson. On UVA’s possession, it got a quick first down only to botch a handoff between Perkins and Ellis on the next play. The fumble was recovered by Va. Tech to end the game and give it a 15th straight win in the in-state rivalry.
-- UVA comes to Charlotte having lost three of its past four games both SU and ATS. The Cavs covered as 6.5-point underdogs in the OT loss to the Yellow Jackets on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta.
-- Perkins, a juco transfer who started his career at Arizona State, has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 2,472 yards with a 22/9 TD-INT ratio. He’s also a playmaker with his legs, rushing for 842 yards and nine TDs with a 4.3 YPC average. Ellis has run for a team-best 920 yards and nine TDs while averaging 4.9 YPC.
-- Olamide Zaccheaus is Perkins’ favorite target, catching 82 balls for 973 yards and six TDs. Dubois has 47 receptions for 521 yards and five TDs, while Reed has 24 grabs for 455 yards and seven TDs.
-- UVA is ranked 24th in the country in total defense, 14th at defending the pass and 27th in scoring ‘D’ (21.8 PPG).
-- After cashing in four of its last five regular-season games, the ‘over’ improve to 7-5 overall for the Gamecocks. Their games have averaged combined scores of 59.8 PPG.
-- The ‘over’ has hit three consecutive UVA contests and four of its last five to improve to 7-5 overall. The Cavs have seen their games average combined scores of 50.2 PPG.
-- ABC will provide the telecast at noon Eastern.
By Brian Edwards
Cotton Bowl Preview
Clemson and Notre Dame will square off at Jerry World in Arlington, TX., in the first College Football Playoff semifinal game Saturday at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. As of early Friday, most books had the Tigers listed as 12.5-point favorites with a total of 56.5. The Fighting Irish were +350 on the money line (risk $100 to win $350).
For first-half wagers, Clemson is favored by seven and the total is 28 points. Notre Dame is available on the money line for a +270 payout.
Clemson (13-0 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) has been favored by 16 points or more in 12 of its 13 games. The lowest spread for the Tigers this year was -12 in a Week 2 showdown at Texas A&M. They survived the trip to College Station by winning 28-26.
Dabo Swinney’s squad was tested only one other time in a 27-23 comeback win over Syracuse. Clemson won 11 of its 13 games by 20 points or more. The Tigers trailed the Orange 23-13 after Eric Dungey’s one-yard TD run gave The ‘Cuse a 23-13 advantage with 12:58 left.
Trevor Lawrence, the true freshman who had been named the starting QB that week, had been knocked out of the game in the second quarter. But Chase Brice, a redshirt freshman QB, made some key plays, Travis Etienne ran like a beast and the defense got key stops to spark a critical rally.
Clemson pulled to within three on Etienne’s 26-yard TD run with 11:08 remaining. The sophomore RB found the end zone again with 41 ticks left to lift his team to victory. Etienne rushed for 203 yards and three TDs on 27 attempts.
Lawrence returned the next week and quickly went about establishing himself as one of the country’s premier signal callers. In his next three starts after being injured vs. Syracuse, Lawrence threw seven TDs without an interception in blowout wins at Wake Forest (63-3), vs. N.C. St. (41-7) and at FSU (59-10).
For the season, Lawrence has completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 2,606 yards with a 24/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target is Tee Higgins, who has 52 receptions for 802 yards and 10 TDs. Justyn Ross has 34 catches for 699 yards and six TDs, and Amari Rodgers has 46 grabs for 514 yards and four TDs. There’s also ‘Mr. Reliable,’ senior Hunter Renfrow, who has 43 receptions for 472 yards and one TD.
Etienne garnered second-team All-American honors by rushing for 1,464 yards and 21 TDs while averaging 8.3 yards per carry. He also had 10 receptions for 65 yards and one TD. The Tigers are four-deep in the backfield with excellent reserves in Lyn-J Dixon, Adam Choice and Tavien Feaster.
Dixon has rushed for 536 yards and five TDs with a 9.6 YPC average. Choice has 506 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 7.4 YPC average, while Feaster has run for 409 yards and six TDs with a 5.8 YPC average.
Clemson is fourth in the country in total offense, 27th in passing yards, ninth in rushing yards and fourth in scoring with its 45.4 points-per-game average. Senior OT Mitch Hyatt was a third-team All-ACC pick as a freshman in 2015, a first-team All-ACC selection in ’16, a second-team All-American in ’17 and a first-team All-American this season.
If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it at least 100 times: The best move of Swinney’s coaching career was hiring Brent Venables away from Oklahoma to become his defensive coordinator after Geno Smith and West Virginia hung a 70-spot on the Tigers at the Orange Bowl on Jan. 5 of 2012. It was a coup to pull Venables away from Norman after serving as OU’s DC for 13 seasons under Bob Stoops.
Venables has delivered and then some. This year’s Clemson stop unit ranks fifth in the nation in total defense, 18th at defending the pass, third in run defense and second in scoring ‘D’ (13.7 PPG).
Three defensive linemen for Clemson earned first-team All-American honors, including Dexter Lawrence, Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Lawrence is ‘out’ for the rest of the season after testing positive for a trace amount of ostarine, an illegal muscle-growth supplement. Reserve TE Braden Galloway and reserve OL Zach Giella were also suspended for the same reason. All three players could be facing a one-year suspension, but that’s of no consequence to Lawrence, as the junior is expected to turn pro anyway.
Lawrence had produced 37 tackles, seven QB hurries, six tackles for loss, three passes broken up and one blocked kick. He was also used as a fullback in goal-line packages and had one two-yard TD run.
Wilkins has recorded 45 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, five sacks, six QB hurries, two passes broken up, one forced fumble, one blocked kick and two fumble recoveries for 21 return yards. Like Lawrence, Wilkins is also used on some short-yardage situations. He has three carries for three rushing yards and a pair of TDs.
Ferrell has 46 tackles, 10.5 sacks, seven QB hurries, 6.5 TFL’s, three PBU and two forced fumbles. The Tigers are third in the nation in sacks with 46.
Notre Dame (12-0 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) scored only 24, 24 and 22 points in its first three games of the season. Brian Kelly’s club defeated Michigan (24-17), Ball St. (24-16) and Vanderbilt (22-17) in one-possession games at home. With the offense dragging a bit, Kelly decided to name sophomore Ian Book as his new starting QB replacing Brandon Wimbush, who had led the Irish to a 10-3 record in 2017 when he rushed for 14 TDs and had a 16/6 TD-INT ratio.
The move was a stroke of genius. The offense was parked immediately, producing 56, 38 and 45 points in its next three games. Notre Dame went to Winston Salem and blasted Wake Forest 56-27 in Book’s second career start. Then the Irish thumped Stanford 38-17 as a 4.5-point home favorite before going to Blacksburg and spanking Va. Tech by a 45-23 count.
Eight of Notre Dame’s opponents made the postseason. The Irish won 31-21 at Northwestern, 36-3 vs. Syracuse at Yankee Stadium and 24-17 at Southern Cal in the regular-season finale.
Kelly’s team has only been an underdog once this year, beating Michigan as a 2.5-point home underdog. Notre Dame has won three of its past four bowl games, including a pair of wins over LSU at the 2014 Music City Bowl and last year’s Citrus Bowl.
Book and senior RB Dexter Williams are the catalysts for an offense that averages 33.8 points per game. Book has completed 70.4 percent of his throws for 2,468 yards with a 19/6 TD-INT ratio. He has run for 250 yards and four TDs.
Williams has run for 941 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 6.6 YPC. Tony Jones Jr. has run for 392 yards and three TDs with a 4.7 YPC average, while Jafar Armstrong has 377 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 5.3 YPC average.
Miles Boykin has posted team-bests in receptions (54), receiving yards (803) and TD catches (eight). Chase Claypool has caught 48 balls for 631 yards and four TDs, while Chris Finke has 47 grabs for 547 yards and two TDs. Alize Mack has 34 receptions for 349 yards and three TDs.
Notre Dame is ranked No. 21 in the country in total defense, No. 35 at defending the pass, No. 31 in run defense and No. 10 in scoring ‘D’ (17.2 PPG). This unit is led by senior MLB Te’von Coney, who has produced 107 tackles, 5.5 TFL’s, five QB hurries, four PBU, 3.5 sacks, one fumble recovery and one interception.
These storied programs squared off at Memorial Stadium on Oct. 3 of 2015, with Clemson winning a 24-22 decision. However, the Irish covered the number as a three-point road underdog. Notre Dame mounted a furious rally after trailing 21-3 early in the fourth quarter. Torii Hunter Jr. one-yard TD receptions from DeShone Kizer with seven ticks left cut the deficit to 24-22, but the two-point conversation failed. The 46 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 48-point total.
Totals were a wash (6-6) overall for Notre Dame, but the ‘under’ cashed in its last two regular-season contests. The Irish’s games have average combined scores of 51.0 PPG.
The ‘under’ is 3-1 in Clemson’s past four games to improve to 7-6 overall. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 59.1 PPG.
By Brian Edwards
Orange Bowl Preview
Alabama and Oklahoma are poised to collide in Saturday’s Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. This College Football Playoff semifinal pits the SEC champs vs. the Big 12 champs.
As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Alabama (13-0 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) installed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 77 or 77.5. The Sooners were +425 on the money line (risk $100 to win $425).
For first-half wagers, the Crimson Tide was favored by 7.5 points with a total of 39. OU had +310 odds to be leading at intermission. Nick Saban’s team went 10-0 ATS in the first half to start the season, but it has failed to cover the number in the first half of each of its last three contests.
Alabama won its first 12 games by 22 points or more, marking the first time in more than a century that a college football team had been so dominant. However, Saban’s team was pushed to the limit by Georgia – again – in the SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 1.
Alabama trailed by double digits twice (21-7 and 28-14) and was tied or in catch-up mode for nearly 59 minutes. In fact, the Tide has been tied or trailed against UGA more than 118 minutes out of 120 played (plus overtime) in the last two head-to-head meetings. Of course, Alabama rallied to force overtime and eventually won a 26-23 decision over the Bulldogs in the finals of last year’s CFP.
Trailing 28-21 with a little more than 11 minutes left, Heisman Trophy runner-up Tua Tagovailoa went down with a foot injury and limped off the field needing assistance from the medical staff. In the blink of an eye, it was a complete reversal of roles for Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts.
Hurts led Alabama to a 26-2 record in 28 starts as a freshman and sophomore in 2016 and ’17. With his team down 13-0 at halftime to UGA in last year’s slugfest, Tagovailoa was called on to replace Hurts in the second half. We all know how that worked out.
I had sensed all year long, especially after Tagovailoa injured his knee late in a win at Arkansas, that Hurts would be called upon at some point during the season. But not necessarily at the same venue and against the same team when his career fortunes had taken a turn for the worse 11 months before.
Given the opportunity, Hurts took advantage and then some. He promptly guided the Tide to a game-tying TD drive that covered 16 plays, 80 yards and more than seven minutes of clock. Hurts capped the drive by hitting Jerry Jeudy with a 10-yard scoring strike.
After Kirby Smart lost his sanity and called a fake punt on fourth and 11 from around midfield with about three minutes left, Alabama took over with great field position. Hurts took his team down the field and gave it the lead for the first time on a 15-yard TD drive with 1:04 remaining.
Saban’s defense would shut the door on UGA and Alabama won a 35-28 decision to remain undefeated. The Bulldogs still took the cash as 11-point underdogs and the 63 points resulted in a push for wagers on the total.
Hurts completed 7-of-9 passes for 82 yards and one TD without an interception. The junior signal caller rushed for 28 yards and one score on five attempts. Tagovailoa had struggled the entire game, connecting on just 10-of-25 throws for 164 yards and one TD with a pair of interceptions. Josh Jacobs ran for 83 yards and two TDs on eight carries.
Tagovailoa indicated earlier this week that he was about 80-85 percent healthy. He underwent surgery on his ankle shorty after the win over UGA. The expectation is that he’ll start vs. OU, but how effective and comfortable he’ll be remains to be seen.
Tagovailoa has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 3,353 yards with a 37/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When healthy, he’s a threat with his legs, as he’s run for 190 yards and five TDs with a 4.0 yards-per-carry average.
Hurts has completed 50-of-67 throws (74.6%) for 755 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. He’s rushed for 167 yards and two TDs while averaging 4.9 YPC.
Alabama is facing an Oklahoma defense that’s ranked dead last out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense, giving up 291.4 yards per game through the air. The Sooners are ranked No. 108 in the nation total defense, No. 54 versus the run and No. 96 in scoring ‘D’ (32.4 points per game).
The Tide is ranked fifth in the country in total offense, seventh in passing yards, 35th in rushing yards and second in scoring with its 47.9 PPG average. Alabama’s ground attack features a trio of outstanding RBs.
Damien Harris has run for 771 yards, seven TDs and averages 6.1 YPC. Najee Harris has 679 rushing yards, four TDs and a 6.7 YPC average, while Jacobs has run for 495 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Jacobs, who is also a standout on special teams, has 15 catches for 171 yards and two TDs.
Jeudy enjoyed a breakout campaign, catching 59 balls for 1,103 yards and 12 TDs. Jaylen Waddle has 41 receptions for 803 yards and seven TDs, while Henry Ruggs III has 42 grabs for 724 yards and 10 TDs. Irv Smith Jr. has 38 receptions for 648 yards and seven TDs, and Devonta Smith has 30 catches for 524 yards and five TDs.
Like Clemson, Alabama has three players suspended for the CFP semifinals. The most important of those is starting OG Deonte Brown.
Oklahoma (12-1 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) won its first five games, winning four times by double-digit margins. Lincoln Riley’s squad needed overtime to get past Army in a 28-21 win as a 30-point home ‘chalk,’ however. The Sooners took their only loss of the year by a 48-45 count vs. Texas on Oct. 6.
Since then, OU has ripped off seven straight victories, although we’ll note its 1-3-1 spread record in its past five outings. The Sooners won three one-possession games down the stretch, capturing a 51-46 triumph at Texas Tech a week before beating Oklahoma State 48-47 in Norman. In the regular-season finale at West Virginia on a short week (Friday game), they won 59-56 over the Mountaineers.
To get the fourth seed in the CFP just ahead of No. 5 Ohio State, Oklahoma faced a revenge game against the Longhorns in the Big 12 Championship Game. This time around, the Sooners got even and covered the spread in a 39-27 victory as 9.5-point favorites.
Junior QB Kyler Murray, the Heisman Trophy winner who beat out Tagovailoa for the award, completed 25-of-34 passes for 379 yards and three TDs without an interception. CeeDee Lamb had six receptions for 167 yards and one TD. Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown had five catches for 54 yards before suffering a foot injury.
For the season, Murray has connected on 70.9 percent of his passes for 4,053 yards with a 40/7 TD-INT ratio. Murray has run for 892 yards and 11 TDs with a 7.3 YPC average. He has Michael-Vick-like quickness and can not only elude pass rushers and scramble for positive yardage, but he can also keep plays alive hit streaking WRs. Obviously, he’ll be facing the toughest defense he’s seen, but pressure on the QB doesn’t necessarily translate to sacks when dealing with Murray.
Brown, who was upgraded to ‘probable’ Friday morning, has 75 receptions for 1,318 yards and 10 TDs. Lamb has caught 57 balls for 1,049 yards and 10 TDs, while Lee Morris has 21 grabs for 457 yards and eight TDs. Grant Calcaterra has 25 receptions for 378 yards and six TDs.
When star RB Rodney Anderson went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1, there was concern about depth at the position for OU. Those concerns were quickly alleviated by the emergence of redshirt freshman RB Kennedy Brooks, who has run for 1,021 yards and 12 TDs with a 9.0 YPC average. Trey Sermon has run for 928 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC.
This is only the fourth underdog situation for the Sooners since Riley took over for Bob Stoops. They were ‘dogs three times last year, going 2-1 both SU and ATS. OU won outright by a 31-16 count at Ohio State as a seven-point puppy and captured a 62-52 win at Oklahoma State while catching 2.5 points. The loss came to Georgia in the epic Rose Bowl thriller won by the Bulldogs 54-48 in double overtime.
Oklahoma hasn’t been a double-digit underdog since thumping Alabama 45-31 as a 15-point ‘dog in the 2013 Sugar Bowl.
The ‘over’ has hit at an 8-4-1 clip for Alabama, which has seen its games average combined scores of 62.8 PPG.
The ‘over’ is 11-2 overall for the Sooners, who have watched their games average combined scores of 81.8 PPG.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Saturday, December 29
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ARKANSAS ST (8 - 4) vs. NEVADA (7 - 5) - 12/29/2018, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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FLORIDA (9 - 3) vs. MICHIGAN (10 - 2) - 12/29/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
FLORIDA is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
MICHIGAN is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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S CAROLINA (7 - 5) vs. VIRGINIA (7 - 5) - 12/29/2018, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
S CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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OKLAHOMA (12 - 1) vs. ALABAMA (13 - 0) - 12/29/2018, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 81-56 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
ALABAMA is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
ALABAMA is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NOTRE DAME (12 - 0) vs. CLEMSON (13 - 0) - 12/29/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
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NCAAF
Bowl Season
Trend Report
Saturday, December 29
Florida Gators
Florida is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Florida is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 7 games
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
South Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Carolina's last 5 games
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia's last 5 games
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Arkansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games
Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Nevada is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Nevada's last 8 games
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Notre Dame's last 9 games
Clemson Tigers
Clemson is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma's last 5 games
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Alabama's last 14 game
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Peach Bowl, Atlanta
Michigan is 2-0 vs Florida last four years, beating Gators 41-7 in Citrus Bowl three years ago, 33-17 in season opener LY. Mullen was 6-2 in bowls at Miss State, beating Michigan 52-14 in Gator Bowl in 2010. SEC-Big 14 teams have played 34 bowls the last eight years; this is only 6th team the Big 14 team has been favored (3-2 vs spread in first five). Underdogs covered four of last six Peach Bowls; average total in last five is 59.8. Michigan won 10 of its last 11 games overall, but lost 62-39 at Ohio State, giving up 567 yards. Under Harbaugh, Wolverines are 6-9 vs spread in games with single digit spread, 1-2 this year. Michigan lost four of its last five bowls. Florida won its last three games overall; they won six of last eight bowl games, but didn’t bowl LY. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Florida games.
Belk Bowl, Charlotte
Favorites won last seven Belk Bowls (6-0-1 vs spread); ACC teams are 4-3 in those games, with average total of 71 in last five. South Carolina won five of its last six bowl games; they’re 3-3-1 vs spread in last seven bowls as a favorite. Carolina is 4-3 vs spread this year in games with single digit spread; they’re 3-2 vs spread as favorites, but they also allowed 44-35-56 points in last three SEC games. Five of SC’s 12 games were decided by four or less points. Virginia is 0-3 in bowls since ’06, losing 49-7 to Navy in bowl LY; Cavaliers lost three of last four games overall after a 6-2 start- they allowed 145.3 YR in last four games. Virginia is 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this year. SEC teams are 5-2 vs ACC teams this year (7-0 vs spread). Four of last five Virginia games went over.
Arizona Bowl, Tucson
Underdogs are 2-1 in this bowl; Nevada won the first one 28-23 (+3) three years ago. Average total in the three games is 54.3. Arkansas State won its last four games after a 4-4 start; they beat Nevada’s rival UNLV 27-20 at home in September. ASU is 7-0 when it allows 21 or fewer points, 1-4 when it allows 28+- they’re 3-3 vs spread in games with single digit spread this year. Red Wolves 228+ rushing yards in all four of their losses. Nevada won four of last five games after a 3-4 start, but lost 34-29 at rival UNLV. Wolf Pack is in bowl for first time in three years; they lost three of last four bowls, with only win here in ’15. Under is 8-2 in last ten ASU games, 6-2 in nevada’s last eight. Over last four years, Mountain west teams are 9-4-1 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.
Cotton Bowl
Favorites covered Cotton Bowl five of last seven years, with average total of 36.3 last three years. Clemson (-2.5) beat Notre Dame 24-22 at home in rain three years ago. Tigers are in national semis for 4th year in row; they won semi-final game two of last three years, are 6-2 in last eight bowls, but since ’05, are 1-6 vs spread as bowl favorites- last time they were favored in a bowl was 2011, when they lost 70-33 to West Virginia. Clemson is 12-0, with last eight wins by 20+ points; three of their last four games stayed under total. Notre Dame is 12-0, beating Michigan 24-17 in only game as an underdog this year. Fighting Irish won three of last four bowls; since ’09, they’re 5-2 vs spread as a double digit underdog. Under Kelly, they’re 17-18 as an underdog. Six of last nine ND games went over the total.
Orange Bowl
Underdog won five of last seven Orange Bowls; average total in last five Orange Bowls is 67. Sooners lost this game in 2012, 2015- they’re 2-4 in last six bowls, and lost in national semis two of last three years, but they did beat Alabama 45-31 (+15) in Sugar Bowl five years ago. Oklahoma scored 39+ points in each of its last nine games. Oklahoma won its last seven games since a 48-45 loss to Texas; over last 11 years, Sooners are 6-3 as an underdog. Alabama won national title two of last three years; they’re 3-5 vs spread in last eight bowls, all as a favorite. Last eight years, SEC teams are 17-15 vs spread when playing a Big X opponent, 9-6 when favored. Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Oklahoma games, 6-3-1 in Alabama’s last ten games. Last four years, SEC teams are 8-5 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.