Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 11/20/18
Northern Illinois won eight of its last nine games with Western Michigan; they lost 45-30 (+17) in last visit here, two years ago. Huskies had their six-game win streak snapped by Miami LW; NIU won its last four road games, none by more than 10 points- under Carey, they’re 15-6 as road favorites, 2-0 this year. WMU lost its last three games, allowing 51-59-42 points; they’re 2-7 in last nine games as a home underdog. Six of last seven NIU games stayed under total; four of last five Western games went over.
Miami beat Ball State last two years, 28-7/21-20; RedHawks need win here to be bowl eligible. Miami is 4-8 in its last 12 games as home favorites, 1-2 this year. Ball State snapped a 3-game skid with a 42-41 win on their Senior Day; they’ve given up average of 325.3 rushing yards/game the last three weeks. Cardinals are 1-4 on road, this year- they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as road underdogs, 2-3 this year. Three of last four Ball State games went over total; over is 5-3 in last eight Miami games. Miami was outgained 369-201 LW but got an upset over No Illinois.
By Brian Edwards
**Northern Illinois at Western Michigan**
-- As of late Monday night, most betting shops had No. Illinois (7-4 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 50.5. The Broncos were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).
-- Western Michigan (6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS) is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in five home games this season. The Broncos have been home underdogs twice, getting blasted in both instances vs. Syracuse (55-42) and vs. Ohio (59-14). Those are the only home ‘dog spots during Tim Lester’s two-year tenure.
-- Western Michigan lost star junior QB Jon Wassink to a season-ending foot injury early in the first quarter of a 51-24 home loss to Toledo on Oct. 25. Wassink had completed 61.5 percent of his passes for 2,009 yards with a 16/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also had 162 rushing yards and six TDs. Wassink’s replacement has been true freshman Kaleb Eleby, who has connected on 69.7 percent of his throws for 632 yards with a 4/2 TD-INT ratio. He has one rushing score.
-- After losing vs. The ‘Cuse and at Michigan (49-3) to start the season, WMU ripped off six straight wins going into the home date vs. Toledo. But with Wassink going down early, the Broncos were routed by the Rockets and again the next week at home vs. Ohio. They lost a third consecutive outing last Tuesday at Ball State when the Cardinals won a 42-41 decision in overtime. WMU had a 548-353 advantage in total offense a 33-22 edge in first downs and was +1 in turnover margin. Eleby’s nine-yard TD pass to Giovanni Ricci with 1:48 remaining in the fourth quarter forced overtime. After Ball State scored on its first possession of the extra session, WMU answered with Eleby’s one-yard TD plunge. Lester opted to go for two, however, and the run attempt failed.
-- Eleby completed hit 20-of-29 passes for 187 yards and one TD without an interception. Junior RB LeVante Bellamy turned 35 carries into 213 yards and one TD, while senior RB Jamauri Bogan rushed 25 times for 105 yards and a pair of scores. Ricci had seven receptions for 65 yards and one TD.
-- Bellamy has rushed for 1,120 yards and six TDs with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average. He also has 23 catches for 127 yards and one TD. Bogan, who has 3,212 career rushing yards for 40 TDs, has rushed for 639 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 4.5 YPC this year.
-- True freshman WR Jayden Reed has emerged as a big-time playmaker, pacing the Broncos in receptions (49), receiving yards (707) and TD catches (eight). D’Wayne Eskridge has 30 grabs for 592 yards and three TDs, while Ricci has caught 32 balls for 357 yards and three TDs.
-- No. Illinois has already clinched the MAC’s West Division and will face Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game if the Bulls can win at Bowling Green on Friday.
-- NIU owns a 4-2 record both SU and ATS in six road assignments. The Huskies are 2-0 ATS in a pair of road ‘chalk’ spots this season. They’re a stellar 15-6 ATS in 21 games as road favorite during Rod Carey’s six-year reign as head coach.
-- NIU is ranked No. 123 out of 130 FBS teams in total offense and scoring with its 19.8 points-per-game average. The Huskies are No. 121 in passing yards, but they make up for its on the other side of the ball. NIU is 12th in the country in run defense, 21st in scoring ‘D’ (20.3 PPG) and 27th in total defense.
-- NIU junior DE Sutton Smith was the MAC’s 2017 Defensive Player of the Year when he recorded 14 sacks. He has produced 39 tackles, nine sacks, seven tackles for loss, seven QB hurries, four forced fumbles, two blocked punts including one returned for a TD and one pass broken up.
-- NIU had its six-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 13-7 loss to Miami (OH.) as a 6.5-point home favorite. The Huskies had a 369-201 advantage in total offense, but QB Marcus Childers threw a pick-six that gave the RedHawks the game-winning TD in the third quarter. Tre Harbison rushed for 103 yards on 16 attempts and RB Marcus Jones scored the lone offensive TD on a 29-yard scamper to paydirt.
-- Childers has completed 56.4 percent of his passes for 1,540 yards with a 10/7 TD-INT ratio. He’s rushed for 385 yards and five TDs. Harbison has rushed for a team-best 907 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC. Jones has run for 523 yards and four TD with a 5.9 YPC average. Childers has two main targets in WRs Jauan Wesley and D.J. Brown. Wesley has hauled in 45 receptions for 511 yards and two TDs, and Brown has caught 46 balls for 370 yards and three TDs.
-- The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for the Broncos, 3-2 in their home outings. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 68.1 PPG.
-- The ‘under’ is 9-2 overall for the Huskies, 4-2 in their road contests. Their games have played to average combined scores of merely 40.1 PPG.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
**Ball State at Miami-Ohio**
-- This is a non-televised matchup that’ll kick at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. As of late Monday night, most spots had the RedHawks listed as 17-point home ‘chalk’ with at total of 54. The Cardinals were +625 on the money line (risk $100 to win $625).
-- Miami (5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS) is playing to get bowl eligible in this spot. The RedHawks have been a lucrative team to support for gamblers recently, as they’re 6-1 ATS in their past seven games. Chuck Martin’s team has won four of its past six games with the only defeats coming at Army (31-30 in overtime) and at Buffalo (51-42).
-- Miami is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS at home. Martin’s squad is 1-1 both SU and ATS as a home favorite. During his five-year tenure, the Red Hawks are 7-9 ATS as home ‘chalk.’
-- This will be senior QB Gus Ragland’s final home game. He has enjoyed another stellar campaign, completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 2,388 yards with a 16/3 TD-INT ratio. Ragland has a 55/11 career TD-INT ratio, in addition to 12 career rushing scores.
-- Miami’s leading rusher in Alonzo Smith, who has 539 rushing yards, six TDs and a 4.4 YPC average. Jack Sorenson is Ragland’s favorite target with 50 receptions for 706 yards and two TDs.
-- Ball State (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS) snapped a three-game losing streak both SU and ATS with last week’s 42-41 overtime win over Western Michigan as a nine-point home underdog. James Gilbert ran for a pair of TDs and QB Drew Plitt threw for 258 yards and three TDs. Justin Hall had nine receptions for 117 yards, while Riley Miller had five catches for 94 yards and one TD.
-- Ball State junior QB Riley Neal (knee), last year’s leading tackler Jacob White (ankle) and last season’s leading rusher Caleb Huntley (Achilles) are ‘questionable’ at Miami. Neal, who has missed back-to-back games, has thrown for 1,917 yards with an 11/4 TD-IN ratio. He’s also rushed for 357 yards and five TDs. Huntley has missed five consecutive games, rushing for 187 yards and averaging 4.9 YPC in his team’s first six outings. White has recorded 59 tackles, 3.5 TFL’s, three PBU, one sack and one fumble recovery.
-- Plitt has connected on 68-of-102 passes (66.7%) for 833 yards with a 5/6 TD-INT ratio. Miller has 56 receptions for 807 yards and six TDs, while Hall has 66 catches for 589 yards. Corey Lacanarioa has caught 46 balls for 506 yards and three TDs.
-- Ball State is 2-3 ATS as a road underdog this year, 3-4 ATS as a road ‘dog during Mike Neu’s three-year tenure.
-- The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for Miami, but it has seen the ‘under’ cash in back-to-back games and go 3-2 in its home contests. The RedHawks’ games have played to average combined scores of 52.7 PPG.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Really, Oscar?! What we saw Saturday from Urban Meyer on the sidelines of his Ohio State squad’s 52-51 double-overtime win at Maryland was a Drama Queen Performance for the ages! And for those of you – yes, I’m talking to a bunch of national media members – who witnessed it and became "worried" about Oscar’s health, wake the fudge up. We’ve seen this script before. Lest we forget, I called him on it nearly eight years ago. Like I’ve been saying since late August, it’s GUARANTEED he quits in January (at the latest). When times get tough, Oscar gets gone.
-- According to a report out of Arkansas, DBs Kamren Curl and Ryan Pulley are suspended for the regular-season finale at Missouri. Chad Morris told the media during his Monday scrum, "[2 DBs] will not be here today or yesterday or any part of this week for unacceptable behavior." Curl and Pulley, who have combined to make 20 starts this season, were reportedly seen taking photos and socializing with members of Mississippi State’s dance team before kickoff of this past Saturday’s 52-6 loss in Starkville. Curl is the Razorbacks’ fourth-leading tackler with 53 stops, five PBU, one forced fumble and one QB hurry. Pulley has produced 37 tackles, six PBU, three interceptions, one sack, 2.5 TFL’s and one forced fumble.
-- Here are some key players to monitor during Rivalry Week as they’re ‘questionable:’ Ole Miss RB Scottie Phillips, Texas QB Sam Ehlinger, Syracuse QB Eric Dungey, Illinois RB Reggie Corbin, Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook, Wyoming RB Nico Evans, Colorado QB Steven Montez, Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano, Oklahoma State RB Justice Hill and Texas Tech QB Alan Bowman.
-- The updated odds to win the CFP from The Westgate SuperBook look like this:
Alabama -250
Clemson +350
Michigan 12/1
Notre Dame 12/1
Georgia 12/1
Oklahoma 20/1
Ohio State 25/1
Washington State 200/1
West Virginia 1,000/1
UCF 1,000/1
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Western Michigan Broncos Preview and Predictions 11-20-2018
The Northern Illinois Huskies are in a strange position here, as they have already clinched their spot in the Mid-American Conference championship game, so the result of Tuesday night's game against the Western Michigan Broncos is relatively inconsequential as far as their post-season status is concerned.
But WMU has already qualified for a bowl, although frankly there is a little less faith in them out there since they've had to go to a true freshman at quarterback.
Is the priority for NIU to keep its starters healthy in order to compete for the MAC title? That's a legitimate question to ask as these teams prepare to do battle in the regular season finale, set for Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, MI.
TV: ESPNU, 7 PM ET. LINE: Northern Illinois -6
ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Last week's effort was less than satisfying for the Huskies (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) as they fell 13-7 to a Miami of Ohio club that needed to win out to get bowl-eligible. You can't say the defense didn't do its job, as the stop unit held the RedHawks to 94 rushing yards on 41 attempts, and 201 yards overall. They even got something useful out of their own running game, as Tre Harbison became the first NIU player with three consecutive games of 100 or more yards since the 2013 season. But the problem that holds NIU back a little is that Marcus Childers (56.4%, 1540 yards) is not necessarily a very accomplished passer. He was only 15 of 32 for 157 yards in the game, and he threw an interception that Miami's Ja'don Rucker-Furlow returned for a touchdown, which made all the difference in this game that was played for the Mallory Cup. Northern Illinois is averaging only 19.8 points per game, and they have the same offensive third down conversion rate as WMU (35%). But interestingly, Western Michigan, statistically speaking, is better at stopping teams on third down (33%, compared to 37% for NIU). In this week's game the Huskies may actually be in more comfortable territory, as they have been a more-than-solid 19-4 in conference road games since Rod Carey took over as head coach. NIU is still 21-4 straight-up in the last 25 mid-week (Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday) games they have played.
ABOUT WESTERN MICHIGAN: WMU lost quarterback Jon Wassink to an injury that has, in all likelihood, shelved him for the season. But the thing that has really stung the Broncos (6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS) lately is not necessarily that they have freshman Kaleb Eleby starting at the QB spot, but that they can't slow down the opposition. After losing 42-41 in overtime to Ball State, a team that was starting a backup quarterback as well, they have now surrendered 152 points in the last three games, and that has brought about the dismissal of Tim Daoust as co-defensive coordinator. Lou Esposito, who shared that job with Daoust, will take over the duties in full. Head coach Tim Lester's team had a 6-2 record going into a two-game homestand against Toledo and Ohio, but they lost both those games and then lost again last week. The Broncos are bowl-eligible, but Lester is a little worried about a repeat of last season, when his team was 6-6 but not invited anywhere. WMU is tops in the nation in average yardage on punt returns, as well as 30th in total offense (mostly behind Wassink) and 12th in time of possession. Speedy back LeVante Bellamy ranks #1 in the MAC and 14th nationwide in rushing yards, and his running mate, Jamauri Bogan, has 13 touchdowns on the ground, which is best in the conference.
EXTRA POINTS
1. While Western Michigan is ahead 24-19 in the 43 games that have been held all-time in the series, Northern Illinois has won eight of the last nine meetings. In last year's encounter, Sutton Smith recovered a fumble and returned it 58 yards for a touchdown, and Marcus Childers threw the winning touchdown pass to Mitchell Brinkman in a 35-31 NIU victory.
2. The Huskies have already won their seventh MAC West title in the last nine seasons. Over that period, the only other teams in the FBS ranks that has equaled such a feat in their own conference is Florida.
3. Northern Illinois left tackle Max Scharping, who is a candidate for the William V. Campbell Trophy, which is more or less an academic Heisman, has surrendered just one quarterback sack in three seasons on the job.
PREDICTION: Northern Illinois 26, Western Michigan 23
__________________
Ball State Cardinals vs. Miami of Ohio Redhawks Preview and Predictions 11-20-2018
Ever since the Miami of Ohio Redhawks lost their sixth game, every game of the season has been the most important for them. And now, as they finish things up with their regular season schedule, they have the opportunity to qualify for a bowl game on Tuesday night, not to mention keep the flame flickering for a spot in the conference title game, as they take part in MAC-tion that will be televised over the ESPN networks.
The Ball State Cardinals have to be given some credit for working hard to the end, even though they don't have enough personnel on hand to contend for a bowl opportunity. After an overtime victory over Western Michigan, they have a chance to end their season on a winning note for coach Mike Neu.
So these two Mid-American Conference teams will slug it out at Yager Stadium in Athens, Ohio.
TV: ESPN Plus, 7 PM ET. LINE: Miami of Ohio -17
ABOUT BALL STATE: To say that Ball State (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS) carried no momentum into its game last Tuesday against Western Michigan would be a vast understatement. They had lost consecutively to Eastern Michigan, Ohio and Toledo by a combined 92 points. And that was quite a downer for a team that had, earlier in the campaign, stayed to within 24-16 of Notre Dame, which could be headed to the college football playoff. But without Riley Neal, they weren't given much of a chance, even as WMU was slumping and had freshman Kaleb Eleby at the controls. Drew Plitt, who took over the quarterback duties after Neal's knee injury, completed 21 of his 26 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns (one of which was a jump-pass, Tim Tebow-style) and that contributed to a 42-41 victory. "It just proves what this team – when we play to the best of our abilities – is capable of doing," said strong safety Bryce Cosby, who had 17 tackles. No one should be going overboard with the defensive performance; Ball State gave up 361 yards rushing to WMU. But they stopped the run when it counted most - on a two-point conversion attempt by the Broncos in the second overtime to preserve the win. This was Senior Night in Muncie, and Mike Neu was very emotional about his team's effort. "It was a great opportunity for me to go tell every guy in that locker room afterward that I love them and that I appreciate everything they gave to this university and how they bought into being a student-athlete," he said. No team in the MAC has thrown for more yardage per game than the Cardinals have (254.2). Neal is listed as questionable for this season finale, as is running back Caleb Huntley.
ABOUT MIAMI OF OHIO: The offense was not at its best in last week's game, with just 201 yards against one of the conference's best stop units. But Miami (5-6 SU, 7-4 ATS) managed to fluster Northern Illinois as well, and in the end, it came down to a pick-six from Ja'don Rucker-Furlow that gave the RedHawks a 13-7 win and keep them alive - albeit barely so - in the MAC East race. They must win here and then hope that Ohio defeats Akron AND Bowling Green pulls off a big upset over Buffalo, and they would be headed to Detroit for the conference title game against Northern Illinois. At the very least, they'd be eligible to go to a bowl game. Miami has actually covered seven of their last eight games. And they had scored at least 30 points in seven consecutive games until meeting up with NIU. Gus Ragland has done a solid job as Miami's quarterback, completing 60.6% of his passes for 2388 yards. He has thrown only four interceptions in 355 attempts. And he's done this largely without All-MAC wideout James Gardner, who played only three games before suffering a season-ending injury. Leading receiver Jack Sorenson has 706 yards on 50 catches, and he had never caught a pass for the program until this season. The RedHawks have turned the ball over only nine times in eleven games. Their offensive line, which had brought back all five starters this season, ranks among the nation's top 40 in both sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed.
EXTRA POINTS
1. This game is played for the "Red Bird Rivalry" trophy - the second season that the Miami-Ball State game has been accorded special "rivalry status" by the MAC. Miami came away with a 28-7 victory last year in the first game with that trophy at stake.
2. Only two teams in the country have a better percentage of scoring points in the red zone than Miami does. And in MAC play they have done that in all 29 red zone trips, with 23 touchdowns.
3. With just 2.67 yards per punt return, Miami of Ohio is last in the nation in that category.
PREDICTION: Miami of Ohio 38, Ball State 21
__________________
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Tuesday, November 20
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
N ILLINOIS (7 - 4) at W MICHIGAN (6 - 5) - 11/20/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 76-46 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 76-46 ATS (+25.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
W MICHIGAN is 1-1 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 1-1 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BALL ST (4 - 7) at MIAMI OHIO (5 - 6) - 11/20/2018, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 1-1 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 2-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________
NCAAF
Week 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, November 20
Ball State @ Miami-OH
Ball State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ball State's last 7 games when playing Miami-OH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ball State's last 5 games on the road
Miami-OH
Miami-OH is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami-OH's last 7 games when playing Ball State
Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Western Michigan
Northern Illinois is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Western Michigan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Michigan's last 5 games
Western Michigan is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
__________________