Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 10/23/18
Troy Trojans vs. South Alabama Jaguars Preview and Predictions in NCAAF
For the Troy Trojans, you might say there is a double dose of incentive in Tuesday night's nationally-televised matchup against the South Alabama Jaguars. Not only are they looking to avenge last season's loss in the "Battle for the Belt," they also have to be a little ornery after losing last week to a team that is literally competing in its first year of FBS (Division I-A) football. This, after a victory over Nebraska, drew the attention of Sports Illustrated, which published a feature story on the team.
Yes, some people will point to the fact that Troy was going with its second-string quarterback. But as all these coaches who love to blurt out the "next man up" cliché will tell you, that's not an excuse. South Alabama is not necessarily an accomplished squad, but they are a geographic rival, so most people are expecting that Troy will be paying extra attention to this contest, which takes place at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL.
TV: ESPN2, 8:05 PM ET. LINE: N/A
ABOUT TROY: After winning four consecutive games, last week's contest was one that Troy (5-2 SU & ATS) would rather have back. Visiting Liberty, a team in its first year of FBS competition, and having to do so with Sawyer Smith at quarterback in place of the injured Caleb Barker, they never quite got themselves untracked, committing three turnovers and surrendering four sacks. Still, they led 16-14 until a late Steven Calvert touchdown pass and subsequent two-point conversion gave the Flames the 22-16 victory. Smith ended up completing 13 of 25 passes for just 135 yards, and only four of his completions went more than ten yards. Troy's yardage figure on the game was only 293, and that was almost shocking, considering that Liberty had been surrendering just under 500 yards per game on the season. Head coach Neal Brown called it "bad football" all the way around, though he did not center the blame on Smith. "From a managing the game standpoint, he did fine," said Brown. But to afford a quarterback just "managing" the game, you have to execute in other areas, and the Trojans came up short. They will need the help of B.J. Smith, the leading rusher (587 yards, 6.2 yards per attempt) going forward, because Barker is out for the season. Troy is 34th nationally in Total Offense. On defense, they are 15th in Tackles for Loss, 18th in sacks per game, and have also forced 14 turnovers. So they usually get good penetration from the defensive line and are rather opportunistic.
ABOUT SOUTH ALABAMA: The Jags (2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS) got themselves a tuneup last weekend as they defeated Alabama State 45-7, easily covering the 27.5-point spread. Evan Orth had 155 passing yards, but the defense played a big part, surrendering only 219 yards. Orth has been pretty solid at the quarterback position, completing 67% for 1366 yards, and has been intercepted only three times in 174 attempts. In other areas, however, South Alabama really needs to improve. Tra Minter has been excellent returning kicks (and in fact took back a punt for a TD against Alabama State last week), but his 3.1-yard rushing average leaves a lot to be desired. The Jags rank 112th nationwide in Total Offense, and only seven teams in the country have scored fewer points on a per-game basis. Their only victory against in FBS team came in the third week, as they beat Texas State 41-31. But they lost back-to-back road games against two of the better teams in the Sun Belt Conference, outscored 100-20 by Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. There is some good news from the injury front; safety Nigel Lawrence, who is the team leader in tackles, is likely to return to the lineup after a knee injury sidelined him the last couple of weeks.
EXTRA POINTS
1. South Alabama coach Steve Campbell, along with both of his coordinators, were teammates on Troy's 1987 Division II national championship team. Offensive coordinator Kenny Edenfield held that same position at Troy for the last eight years. He has expressed that he doesn't think that will afford him any distinct advantage against former colleague Vic Koenning (Troy's defensive coordinator).
2. Last year's game against South Alabama hurt Troy in a big way. They had just come off a huge upset victory at LSU, and were clearly flat, as they gained just 30 yards on the ground on the way to a 19-8 defeat – one of only two losses they suffered on the season.
3. Both of these squads have a standout on special teams. South Alabama's Tra Minter is 17th in the nation in Kickoff Returns, averaging 26.6 yards, and right behind him in the #18 position is Troy's Marcus Jones (26.2). Cedarius Rookard of Troy is 16th in the country in punt returns. Both he and Minter have taken punts back for touchdowns. .
PREDICTION: Troy 34, South Alabama 16
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Tuesday, October 23
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TROY (5 - 2) at S ALABAMA (2 - 5) - 10/23/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S ALABAMA is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
S ALABAMA is 2-0 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
S ALABAMA is 1-1 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NCAAF
Week 9
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Trend Report
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Tuesday, October 23
Troy @ South Alabama
Troy
Troy is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Troy is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
South Alabama
The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Alabama's last 7 games
South Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Troy
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NCAAF
Week 9
Tuesday’s game
South Alabama is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games vs Troy, winning three of last four SU; they upset the Trojans 19-8 (+16) LY. Jaguars are 1-5 vs I-A teams (3-3 vs spread); they’re 4-2 in last six games as home underdogs, 1-0 this year. Troy had its 5-game win streak snapped in last game at Liberty (L16-22, -11); Trojans are 6-5 as road favorites under Brown, 1-1 this year. Three of last four Troy games, six of seven USA games went over the total. Sun Belt home teams are 7-8 vs spread; home underdogs are 3-3.
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ATS Trends
Troy
Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
Trojans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Trojans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Trojans are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Trojans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Trojans are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
South Alabama
Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jaguars are 11-25-1 ATS in their last 37 games on fieldturf.
Jaguars are 6-14 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jaguars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jaguars are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Jaguars are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 conference games.
Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
Jaguars are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
Jaguars are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.
OU Trends
Troy
Under is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games on fieldturf.
Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 10-3-1 in Trojans last 14 road games.
Over is 6-2 in Trojans last 8 games overall.
Under is 6-2 in Trojans last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2-1 in Trojans last 8 games in October.
Under is 12-5 in Trojans last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.
South Alabama
Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games following a bye week.
Over is 5-0-1 in Jaguars last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games overall.
Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last 6 games on fieldturf.
Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 conference games.
Over is 6-2-1 in Jaguars last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Jaguars last 8 games following a straight up win.
Under is 5-2-1 in Jaguars last 8 games in October.
Head to Head
Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
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