Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 10/22/18
MNF - Giants at Falcons
October 21, 2018
By Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
The Giants (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) pulled off a terrific comeback two weeks ago to take a 31-30 lead over Carolina with a minute remaining. The Panthers went down the field and booted a 63-yard field goal to edge New York, 33-31, but the Giants cashed as 6 ½-point underdogs. New York followed up that close shave defeat with a dreadful effort in last Thursday’s 34-13 home setback to defending champion Philadelphia to suffer its third straight defeat.
Dating back to the 2017 season, the Giants own an 0-7 ATS mark off an ATS win, which includes double-digit home defeats to the Saints and Eagles in this situation. The Eagles jumped out to a 24-6 halftime lead and never looked back as the lone highlights for the Giants belonged to rookie running back Saquon Barkley who picked up over 50 yards on two separate plays. Besides that, star receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. walked off the field before halftime with the offense on the field, while embattled veteran Eli Manning posted his worst quarterback rating of the season (66.1).
The Falcons (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) dug themselves a 1-4 hole in the tough NFC South through five games, but Atlanta picked up its second divisional victory in a 34-29 home triumph over Tampa Bay. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw three touchdown passes and racked up 354 yards through the air, while the 2016 MVP has now thrown for three or more scores in three games this season.
Atlanta topped the 31-point mark for the fourth time in four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while Ryan has not been intercepted in four straight contests. The running game never got going with Devonta Freeman still sidelined (70 total yards), but All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones hauled in 10 catches for 143 yards in spite of not scoring a touchdown this season. Since losing to Tampa Bay in the 2016 opener, the Falcons have won seven of their past eight home games against division foes.
OVER EASY
As mentioned above, the Falcons are lighting up the scoreboard, especially at home. All four games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium have sailed OVER the total, even the high total of 57 last Sunday against Tampa Bay. The Atlanta defense is busted up due to injuries, as the only UNDER for the Falcons this season hit in the season opener at Philadelphia. The Giants have allowed 33 points or more in three straight games, while the past two road games for New York have cashed the OVER against Houston and Carolina.
SERIES HISTORY
The Giants are making their first visit to Atlanta since getting blanked by the Falcons in 2012 in an ugly 34-0 road defeat. The most recent meeting between these two NFC squads came at Met Life Stadium in 2015 as the Falcons rallied for 14 fourth quarter points in a 24-20 triumph as two-point underdogs. Ryan torched the Giants for 363 yards passing, while Jones caught 13 passes for 135 yards. The last time these teams met on a Monday night came back in 2007 at the Georgia Dome when the Giants ripped the Falcons, 31-10, the season before Atlanta drafted Ryan.
MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
New York has not been a reliable team to back on Monday nights over the last few seasons by going 2-5 SU/ATS since 2014, including a 14-point home loss to Detroit last season. The Falcons have won in each of their past four appearances on Monday night since 2015, while hosting their first Monday night contest since 2015, when Atlanta edged Philadelphia in the season opener, 26-24.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson is back this week, first giving his take on the Big Blue, “A lot of the negative attention has fallen on Manning, a two-time Super Bowl winner but past his prime at age 37. Ironically Manning is on pace for his best completion rate of his career at nearly 69 percent while his current 7.23 yards per attempt average is his highest since 2014. Manning does have eight turnovers in six games which some of which he deserves blame for, some of it can be pinned on the offensive line, something many fans expected to be addressed in the NFL draft last spring but the Giants opted for the luxury of Barkley in the backfield. Barkley has done his part posting 5.2 yards per carry while already catching 40 passes as the focal point of the offense.”
On the other side, the Falcons are thriving at quarterback following a slow start in Week 1, “It has been a resurgent season for Ryan, who is fourth in QB Rating at this point in the season while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. He is third in the NFL in passing yards and has a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ryan has needed to do the heavy lifting with Freeman injured and his task could be more difficult this week with star rookie Calvin Ridley injured last week and a question mark for Monday,” Nelson notes.
Game Props – According to Westgate Superbook
Total Gross Passing Yards – Eli Manning
OVER 278 ½ (-110)
UNDER 278 (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Eli Manning
OVER 1 ½ (-140)
UNDER 1 ½ (+120)
Total Receiving Yards – Odell Beckham, Jr.
OVER 93 ½ (-110)
UNDER 93 ½ (-110)
Total Completions – Matt Ryan
OVER 26 ½ (-110)
UNDER 26 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Matt Ryan
OVER 2 ½ (EVEN)
UNDER 2 ½ (-120)
Will Julio Jones score a touchdown?
YES (+120)
NO (-140)
LINE MOVEMENT
The Falcons opened up as six-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Monday when Week 7 lines were released. However, that number has dipped down to Atlanta laying as low as 3 ½ points at several books. The total opened at 54 ½, but is slowly going down to 53 and even 52 ½ at some books in spite of Atlanta’s high-scoring outputs at home.
New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview and Predictions 10-22-2018 in NFL
NFL Previews 19th October 2018 by Gracenote
Giants vs. Falcons Preview and Predictions
by Gracenote on 10/19/2018
Quarterback Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons withstood a late comeback to end a three-game slide last weekend in what may have been a season-saving victory. That's pretty much the same position the reeling New York Giants and the much-maligned Eli Manning find themselves in when they head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons on Monday Night Football.
One season after finishing 3-13 and winding up with prize running back Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft, New York is off to a 1-5 start amid growing cries that Manning needs to be yanked from the starting lineup. "I know he's the punching bag right now," Giants co-owner John Mara told reporters earlier this week. "But a lot of guys need to play better when you're 1-5." Atlanta has plenty of issues of its own -- namely injuries -- but still has Ryan and favorite target Julio Jones, the subject of pregame hype with New York's Odell Beckham Jr. on the opposite sideline. "In our league today, there are a handful of receivers who garner that special attention," Falcons coach Dan Quinn said. "It just so happens that two of them are matched up this week. They are different players, but really effective in their own right."
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Falcons -4 O/U: 54
ABOUT THE GIANTS (1-5): Barkley has lived up to his pre-draft hype, rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown and catching nine balls for 99 yards in a 34-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Oct. 11. Barkley has a chance to make history against the Falcons and join Kansas City's Kareem Hunt as the only players to pile up at least 100 yards from scrimmage in seven consecutive games to begin their career. Manning continues to have trouble connected with Beckham and has averaged 6.5 yards or fewer per pass attempt in four of six games. New York's defense has allowed 27 points per game and is tied for last in the league with 7.0 sacks.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (2-4): Ryan is third in the NFL with 1,956 passing yards and has 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past four games after throwing for 340 yards and three scores in last week's win over Tampa Bay. Jones had 10 catches for 144 yards against the Buccaneers and is second in the league with 708 yards, but he has yet to find the end zone after scoring only three touchdowns in 2017. With Devanta Freeman going on injured reserve following groin surgery this week, Tevin Coleman and rookie Ito Smith will share the load in the backfield. Atlanta is 30th in total defense (417.2 yards) and 31 in points allowed (32.0).
EXTRA POINTS
1. Ryan has an NFL-best 1,432 yards and 128.2 passer rating since Week 3.
2. Giants TE Evan Engram is expected to return after sitting out the last three games.
3. Falcons DE Takk McKinley has 4.5 sacks in the last five games.
PREDICTION: Falcons 30, Giants 23
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