Sunday 10/21/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAFB, NFL & MLB games.
TEDDY COVERS
Event: (465) Minnesota Vikings at (466) New York Jets
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Total Over 46.5 (-108)
3% Take Minnesota – New York OVER (#465-466)
The Jets have been fully prepared and facing a ‘less than elite’ defense three times this year. Sam Darnold excelled in all three of those ballgames; 48-17, 34-16 and 42-34 Jets victories, all three flying Over the total with room to spare.
Think about New York’s season. In Week 1, they dominated Detroit on Monday Night, earning a blowout victory. In Week 2, they faced a divisional foe on a short week and lost. In Week 3, they had an even shorter week, with travel. Baker Mayfield came off the bench & the Jets defense had no film on him. It showed. Then the Jets had to face an angry Jags team with a truly elite defense coming off a poorly played home loss. They were overwhelmed.
Two weeks ago the Jets had normal rest AND faced a less than elite defense. They ran the ball for 323 yards at 8.5 yards per carry. Darnold averaged 8.2 yards per pass ATTEMPT in that ballgame. Last week against Indy, it was more of the same: 8.3 yards per pass from Darnold while Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell ripped off chunks of yardage on the ground.
The betting markets seem convinced that the Vikings defense is still elite this season, betting this total down from the opener. The numbers, however, show a very different story. Minnesota has allowed 6.0 yards per play on defense this year, below the 5.7 ypp league average. Opposing quarterbacks have a QB rating of 103.1 against this Vikings secondary – only Oakland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Detroit are worse. Even limited offensive teams like the Bills and Cardinals have had success putting points on the board against the Vikings over-rated stop unit.
The Jets secondary is riddled with key injuries this week, with Trumaine Johnson, Buster Skrine, Marcus Maye and Leonard Williams all nursing wounds. Minnesota’s offense is putting up points in bunches right now, with Kirk Cousins enjoying tremendous chemistry with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Latavius Murray is coming off his career best rushing game, gaining 155 on the ground last week. Expect points, not punts. Take the Over
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JACK JONES
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Washington Redskins -1.5
I usually like going against teams who are coming off a blowout win the previous week. They are almost always overvalued the next week, and I think that’s the case here with the Dallas Cowboys. This line should be Washington -3, and instead it’s Washington -1.5. We’re getting some value here with the Redskins.
The Cowboys are coming off a 40-7 blowout victory over the Jaguars at home. They improved to 3-0 at home this season. Big deal. The Cowboys are 0-3 on the road this season, and they have been dominated for the most part, especially statistically.
The Cowboys are scoring just 12.3 points per game on the road this season. They are getting outscored by 7.4 points per game and outgained by 74 yards per game. And their three losses have come to the Panthers, Seahawks and Texans, so it’s not like they are playing world beaters away from home.
The Redskins are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL this season. They are 3-2 right now and sit atop the NFC East. They already head their bye week so they are fresher than most teams. And they have played very well at home this season.
Indeed, the Redskins are 2-1 at home this year. They have wins over the Packers 31-17 and the Panthers 23-17 who I believe are both better than the Cowboys. And their only loss came 9-21 to the Colts and it was very fluky. The Redskins outgained the Colts by 53 yards in that contest. They are outgaining opponents by 18 yards per game this season, so there is nothing fluky about their 3-2 start.
I think a big key here is that Washington’s defense is better than it gets credit for, and it is certainly good at stopping the run. The Redskins give up just 90 rushing yards per game this season. And the Cowboys only average 172 passing yards per game. The Cowboys are a one-dimensional offense with their running game, and the Redskins have the players to stop it. The Cowboys will have their passing game hampered even more this week with two key receivers in Tavon Austin and Terrance Williams expected to sit out.
Dallas is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 road games after allowing 9 points or less in its previous game. The Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. The Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Bet the Redskins Sunday.
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JOHN MARTIN
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5
The Jaguars have lost back-to-back road games in blowout fashion to the Chiefs (14-30) and Cowboys (7-40). It’s safe to say they will be looking to take out their frustration this week at home against the Houston Texans. Their defense should get back to being the dominant unit it has been over the past two seasons with the exception of the last two weeks. The Jaguars have given up just 13.7 points and 238 yards per game at home this season. They have beaten the Patriots by 11 and the Jets by 19 at home this year. They did lose 6-9 to the Titans, but that was a letdown spot off the big win over the Patriots. The Texans are starting to get some respect off three straight wins following an 0-3 start to the season. But they could have lost all three of those games. They needed OT to beat the Colts and Cowboys, and they needed a pick-6 late out of Nathan Peterman to beat the Bills at home last week. I don’t expect this one-dimensional Houston offense to have much success against the Jaguars this week. Deshaun Watson will be running for his life without a running game. Doug Marrone is 7-0 ATS in his last seven games as a head coach after being outgained by 100 or more total yards in his previous game. Give me the Jaguars.
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MARK WILSON
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Bills vs. Colts
Free Play on Colts -6½ -110
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INFO PLAYS
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Titans vs. Chargers
1* Free Play on Chargers -6½ -104
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MARC LAWRENCE
Play - Cleveland Browns (Game 455).
Edges - Browns: 5-0 ATS as dogs versus NFC South; and QB Mayfield 5-0 SU in games off a loss what Oklahoma and Cleveland … Bucs: 3-15 SU last eighteen overall games; and 441-yard defense is the 2nd worst in the league … With Tampa Bay just 1-10 SU in their last eleven games behind James Winston, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland. Thank you and good luck as always.
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DENNIS MACKLIN
DMack's Free Play for Sunday, October 21, 2018 is on the Browns/Buccaneers Over
The Buccs have been brutal on defense and that cost DC Mike Smith his job on Monday. Not sure what can be done with it at this point other than to find a better scheme to somewhat fit your current personnel. The Chargers laid the perfect blueprint out on his to attack Cleveland last week, the first game where the Brownies really weren't competitive. Still see Mayfield getting points by improvising his way down field with Famous Jameis doing the same for Tampa Bay. Put this one on closer to 60 than 50. Play the Over.
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JEFF ALLEN
Jeff Allen's Free NFL Play for Sunday is on the Cowboys and Skins Under
A classic rivalry with a very different look this year. The Cowboys are off a "perfect storm" in crushing the Jags on Sunday. Dak and Zeke will be on the road and running into the teeth of a solid defensive front seven that has allowed just two rushing touchdowns this year. The Cowboy defense is their best unit but they face a generally turnover-proof Alex Smith here and rejuvenated running game with Adrian Peterson leading the way. Lost of football between the 20s with the clock running. This series has posted five straight overs but that run comes to an end here. 20-17 .... regardless.
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PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Lions vs. Dolphins
Lions-2½
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: A plus .500 team off of a win as a home dog. 90-149-8 ATS 37.7% in database history. - Fade the Dolphins this week
KEY TEAM TREND OF THE WEEK: The Browns are 0-23 since Oct 25, 2015 on the road
+ The Vikings are 0-15 ATS (-11.67 ppg) on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.
The Eagles are 0-14 OU (-8.46 ppg) as a favorite off a win as a favorite in which they scored 10+ points more than their season-to-date average.
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RICKY TRAN
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Browns vs. Bucs
Ricky's Free play on Over 49.5:
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Bucs defense is particularly significant.
Key Trends:
- The Over is 6-0 in the Buccaneers last 6 games overall.
- The Over is 20-7 in the Buccaneers last 27 games in October.
- The Bucs rank dead last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 34.6 points per game.
Verdict: Take Over
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CALVIN KING
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Browns vs. Bucs
[1%] Free Play on Bucs -3
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
Sunday's FREE WINNER is OVER in the Browns/Buccaneers matchup.
Games 455/456.
10:00 am pst.
QB sensation, Baker Mayfield might have had some problems with the Baltimore and San Diego defenses the L2 weeks. But trust me, he will have no such trouble with the Tampa Bay defense here. Mayfield and his talented receiving corps will get back on track here as they face the worst passing defense in the NFL. That's right, the Tampa Bay "D" ranks 32nd vs. the pass, which has resulted in the Bucs "D" also ranking dead-last in points allowed, yielding a whopping, 34.6 PPG. On the flipside, Tampa Bay can score, ranking 8th and accounting for 28.2 PPG, behind the League's #1 passing unit. Now , the Cleveland "D" ranks 20th vs. the pass, 29th vs. the run, and 20th in scoring, giving up 25.2 PPG. All 5 of the Bucs outing this season have gone OVER the Total and going back to last season, 6 straight OVERS. The Browns have played to 12 OVERS in their L17 road games. Take the OVER. Thank you.
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RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Oct 21, 2018
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano
Draw+229
Take the draw on Sunday in this match that takes place in Spain.
Getafe 1
Rayo 1
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Andrew Jett
KC CHIEFS
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Randy Chambers
COWBOYS
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Chris Ruffolo
JETS
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CARMINE BIANCO
Event: (451) Tennessee Titans at (452) Los Angeles Chargers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 9AM EDT
Play: Los Angeles Chargers -6.0 (-110)
NFL - Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
Your NFL Free Play is on the LA Chargers. The Chargers at 4-2 have been deceptively better than a typical 4-2 NFL side having faced the Chiefs in week one and defensively kept Mahomes under 300 YP's which up to now no other defense has managed. They've also faced arguably the NFL's best side in the LA Rams after a tricky east coast game in Buffalo. They've now won 3 straight averaging 31 PPG while allowing 17 PPG and face a Titans side who sit at 3-3 having lost 2 straight while scoring only 12 total points in those losses. With issues on both sides of the ball we'll look for Rivers to take advantage of a struggling D with a look at exploiting cornerback Malcolm Butler. We'll lay under a TD here as the free play.
The Free Play is Los Angeles Chargers -6.0 -110
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DWAYNE BRYANT
Event: (469) New Orleans Saints at (470) Baltimore Ravens
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 4PM EDT
Play: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-110)
The classic "top offense versus top defense" matchup, and I will almost always side with the defense. The Saints offense has faced the Buccaneers, Falcons, Browns, Giants, and Redskins. This Ravens defense will be by far the best defense they've had to face. And they're doing it outside on grass. Drew Brees has always been much more effective at home in the dome. Baltimore is not only one of the best defenses against the pass, but they are also one of the best at limiting receiving yards by running backs. We all know how much Brees likes to throw to Alvin Kamara, and the Ravens are just the team to slow that down. The Ravens offense is quietly producing at a very solid level, and they should do enough to grab the W.
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SEAN MURPHY
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Panthers vs. Eagles
OVER 44½
Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.
I expect to see these two teams trade blows through the air all afternoon long at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. The Panthers were held down on a rainy afternoon in Washington last Sunday but should bounce back here, noting that the Eagles weakness continues to be against the pass, largely due to the absence of defensive leader, safety Rodney McLeod. Philadelphia may be able to frustrate Panthers QB Cam Newton at times in this one, but I still expect to see him get his, noting that WR Devin Funchess continues to evolve in the offense and TE Greg Olsen returned to the field earlier than expected last week. The Eagles offense is coming off arguably its best performance of the season last week in New York and draws another favorable matchup here. Things should open up for the Eagles once again here with the Panthers giving up over five yards per rush to opposing RBs. QB Carson Wentz appears to be getting stronger with each passing week and will once again look to stretch the field here. TE Zach Ertz in particular falls into an excellent matchup against a Panthers defense that has had no luck slowing down opposing TEs. Take the over
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CHIP CHIRIMBES
Houston at Jacksonville
Texans/Jaguars (Under)
I mean really do you think either of these team can move the ball against the opponents defense. I don't!
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LARRY NESS
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Saints vs. Ravens
Saints+3
My free play is on the NO Saints at 4:05 ET
The New Orleans Saints opened the season with back-to-back home games in which they were 10-point favorites and almost lost them both! New Orleans lost 48-40 in Week 1 to Tampa Bay and then needed a miracle against Cleveland in Week 2, escaping with a 21-18 win. However, the too-close-for-comfort win over the Browns was a 'wake-up call' for the Saints and they enter this game not only 4-1 but coming off a bye-week, as well. The Baltimore Ravens were the NFL's lone unbeaten team in the preseason (5-0, including a Hall of Fame Game win) and then crushed the Bills in Week 1, 47-3. Baltimore has cooled off a bit but does enter this game 4-2, tied with the Bengals for the AFC North lead.
The ageless Drew Bress is completing 77.9 percent of his passes with 11 TDs and no interceptions this season in 190 attempts. In fact, he has not thrown an interception in his last six regular-season games, the longest such streak of his career (covers 232 pass attempts). Brees' QB rating is an NFL-high 122.3 and he is just one TD pass away from reaching 500 for his career. "It's a lot of TDs and a lot of games and a lot of passes, but you take them one at a time and you just focus on winning the game and scoring points, regardless of if I am handing it off to one of these guys are throwing to one of our guys," Brees told reporters. "We focus on winning games and the rest of that stuff kind of takes care of itself. Numbers add up." The Saints are averaging an NFL-high 36.0 PPG.
Basically, the Ravens have won with their defense for years. The 2018 season is no different, as the Ravens have allowed the fewest points per game (12.8) and fewest yards per game (270.8) in the NFL. Baltimore also leads the league in sacks (25), following a franchise-record 11 in a 21-0 win over the Tennessee Titans a week ago. Baltimore's offense is better than average, ranking 9th in total yards (393.0 YPG) and 12th in scoring (25.5 PPG). QB Flacco is keeping mistakes to a minimum, with four INTs while averaging a whopping 44 attempts per game (he has thrown nine TD passes).
This is a classic matchup between the NFL's top-ranked defense and one of the league's best offenses. Surprisingly, the Ravens are the only team Brees has never beaten, owning an 0-4 record. However, the Saints are on the short list of Super Bowl contenders and the league's highest-scoring offense has to be pleased that RB Mark Ingram made his season debut following a four-game suspension by rushing for two TDs in the Saints' Week 5 MNF 43-19 win over the Redskins. Simply put, I'm taking offense over defense in this one.
Good luck...Larry
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CAPPERS CLUB
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Cowboys vs. Redskins
Redskins +1.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys face off on Sunday and in this game the value lies with the Redskins as a home underdog.
The Cowboys were impressive in their last victory over the Jags but don't let that fool you, they were at home. This team isn't a good team on the road.
They have played three games on the road and lost all of them because of their lack of production on the offensive end. They scored 16 points against the Texans, 13 points against the Seahawks and eight points against the Panthers.
Back the Redskins.
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SAL MICHAELS
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Titans vs. Chargers
Free Play on Titans +6½ -104
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KENNY WALKER
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Titans vs. Chargers
Chargers-6½
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TOTALS GURU
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Browns vs. Bucs
Free Total Annihilator On Browns vs Bucs under 52½ -109
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DOUG UPSTONE
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Browns vs. Bucs
OVER 52
We know Baker Mayfield has the skill to throw the pigskin around and he should be thrilled to go against the NFL's worst pass defense in Tampa Bay. With that in mind, the total has climbed from 49.5 to 52 points. I'll go along with it and you need to know when the total is 49.5 or higher and the home team is allowing 360 or more YPG, after allowing 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games, the OVER is 27-6 the last 10 years.
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: Golden St -3½ Over Denver
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick the Houston Rockets -2½ over LA Clippers
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Totals4U
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Minnesota Vikings/New York Jets under 46
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Golden Dragon Sports
FREE WINNER for Sunday
Tennessee/LA Chargers under 45
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Hawkeye Sports
Early Sunday's Free Pick: Buffalo Bills + 7 1/2
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: LA Chargers -6'
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Early Sunday: Cleveland Cavaliers - 7
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MIT Simulator
New England vs. Chicago, 10/21/2018 13:00 EDT
Money Line: -122 New England
The Patriots are off a non-covering win versus Kansas City on Monday night. However, those certainly have been rare for New England as the Pats are still on a 30-13 ATS run as a favorite. The Patriots have won 3 straight games SU while the Bears have failed to cover 2 of their last 3 games. Chicago is on a 6-14 ATS run in games with an O/U between 42.5 and 49 points. Bears are off an OT loss at Miami. Overtime losses are always tough to bounce back from and the simulation report is forecasting a road rout here. Free Play NEW ENGLAND
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Brian Bitler
Tennessee vs. LA Chargers, 10/21/2018 09:30 EDT
Tennessee+7-120
Titans start out this game with a air travel advantage as the Chargers had a much longer flight and will also be dealing with more of a time differential then the Titans will. Chargers had to fly a total of 5,000 miles to get to this game.
Chargers have won 3 straight games recently clobbering the Browns who are not a bad team Titans have a ton to prove as they were shut out at home I think the Chargers who are in 2 straight road games are just flat out laying a ton of points against a good defense.
Titans coaches especially on offense have been laying into there guys who have not scored and offensive touchdown in 8 quarters of play look for that to change on Sunday. I think we are getting extra value here and will be investing 9 units on rotation #451 Titans on Sunday.
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TONY BROWN
Houston vs. LA Clippers, 10/21/2018 21:00 EDT
Houston -7-105
Fp: no Blake no Jordon no rivers the new look clippers in a rebuilding mode and won’t have enough fire power to compete with the rockets team . Look for Houston to win and cover for my nba free play .
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, October 21, 2018
NFL (471) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (472) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Take: (472) WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Reason: Your free play for Sunday, October 21, 2018 is in the NFL contest between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Redskins. Your free play is on the Redskins.
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY: NEW ENGLAND/CHICAGO OVER the total of 48½
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Roz Wins
Roz's Sunday, October 21, 2018, Free Pick
(453) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS (454) CHICAGO BEARS
Take : Bears
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#1 Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Carolina Panthers + 5 1/2
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play for Sunday, October 21, 2018
(459) CAROLINA PANTHERS VS (460) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Take : Panthers
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Easy Money Sports
Lee's Early Sunday Free Selection Is
Houston +4
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Sunday: Take LA Rams/San Francisco UNDER the total of 52½
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Arthur Ralph Sports
FREE play SUN Over the total 49 Ravens/Saints
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The Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Sunday: Take DALLAS/WASHINGTON OVER 41½
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John Anthony Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Cleveland Browns + 3 1/2
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BIG AL
Our complimentary selection for Sunday, Oct. 21 is:
Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts 'under' 43.
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Sports Book Edge
Kevin 'Bubba' Smith
'Railside' Harry MLB Expert
#55/6 Buf.Sabres/An.Ducks Over
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HUNTER PRICE
NHL | Oct 21, 2018
Flames vs. Rangers
1* Free Pick on Rangers +115
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DAVE PRICE
Dave’s Sunday Free Play:
1* on Philadelphia Eagles -5
The Key: The Eagles played their best game of the season last week in a 34-13 road win over the New York Giants. They are getting healthy, and Carson Wentz is starting to look comfortable, and the defense is getting back to being the dominant unit it was a year ago. That’s a scary proposition for the Carolina Panthers Sunday. The Panthers are 0-2 on the road with a 24-31 loss to the banged-up Falcons and a 17-23 loss to the Redskins. The Eagles get extra rest and time to prepare after playing last Thursday. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in home games off an ATS win over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take Philadelphia.
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R&R TOTALS
R&R Totals FREE NFL Over-Under Sunday 10-21-18
OVER 45 1/2 -105 Minnesota/NY Jets
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ANDRE RAMIREZ
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Saints vs. Ravens
Ravens-2½
With all the focus on the Saints offense, the Ravens offense is going to go out there and win this game. The Ravens are going to control this game. They are going to make the Saints play their style of game; they’re going to control the game with long drives and they’re going to win. The Ravens defense is going to sack Drew Brees four times and come away with at least one turnover. This is going to be the signature win for the purple and black that shows that the Ravens are in for big things this season.
The Ravens beat the Saints 30-24 in 2010. The Saints came out swinging, but the Ravens threw the last punch. That’s how I see this game going. While it’s been eight years and the two teams are completely different, it serves as a model for how the Ravens can get the job done. Back then it was a similar story. The Saints offense was great and so was the Ravens defense. The Ravens offense ended up doing just a bit more in a tough game. That’s what I see this game as, a tough game that the Ravens have a great shot to win. If they win this one, there aren’t many games the Ravens can’t win.
Ravens 34-26
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MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Bills vs. Colts
Colts-7
The Buffalo Bills held the Texans to 229 yards of total offense at Houston last week, but still lost the game 20-13. They mustered only 229 yards of total offense themselves and average a poor 12.7 points per game for the season.
Here Buffalo will face a Colts side desperate for a win, entering the Week with a poor 1-5 record after four consecutive losses. Offense has not been an issue for the Colts though as they average 25.3 points and 369.2 yards per game on the season. They've averaged a solid 30.7 ppg through their last three games. Indy quarterback Andrew Luck leads the NFL in pass completions, is second with 16 TDs and the Colts rank 10th in the NFL in passing yards per contest.
Buffalo will turn to Derek Anderson under center. The 35 year old veteran was without a job two weeks ago. The last time Anderson started a game was 2016 and he last played in an NFL game last January. The Colts have an excellent pass rush and are tied for third in the NFL with 19 sacks.
I don't see Buffalo keeping up with this explosive Colts offense.
Free pick on Indianapolis Colts.
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PURE LOCK
Pure Lock's FREE NFL play Sunday 10-21-18
Dallas -1 -114
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FRANK SAWYER
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Titans vs. Chargers
OVER 45
Take Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans and the Los Angeles Chargers. Tennessee (3-3) followed up their 13-12 loss in Buffalo two week’s ago with a 21-0 shutout loss at home last week. The Titans have then played 30 of their last 45 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Tennessee has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. Los Angeles (4-2) comes off a 38-14 win at Cleveland last week. The Chargers have then played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. LA averaged 7.88 Yards-Per-Play in that game — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.
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RAY CHADWICK
While it is true the Bengals have played their last pair of games Under the total, it is also true that both of those games were played at home. Cincy's first 3 this year on the road have ALL played Over the total - Over in Indianapolis, Over at Carolina, and Over at Atlanta - and I see this Sunday night road game also landing Over the total at Kansas City.
The Chiefs resumed their high-scoring ways last Sunday night in New England, as they combined for 83 points with the Patriots in an easy Over. That made it 4 of their first 6 this year Over the total for Andy Reid's team.
Patrick Mahomes has been able to help Kansas City generate close to 36 points per game for the year, while Andy Dalton has Cincinnati cranking at 29 points per game for the year. It is likely that both teams will reach those marks tonight, especially since Kansas City likes to get the pigskin snapped in a hurry.
Both teams feature "home run hitters" that are capable of scoring any time they touch the football, and both teams also feature defenses that have had a hard time making the stops needed to keep their games from playing Over the total.
This one shapes up to be a prime-time shootout.
Bengals-Chiefs make it Over the total.
3* CINCINNATI-KANSAS CITY OVER
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TOMMY BRUNSON
Chiefs are back after their first loss of the season last Sunday night at New England, as KC dropped a 43-40 decision but covered as the +3 1/2 point underdog. So, a 6th straight cover, and a 10 game regular season cover streak now dating back to last year in the regular season for Andy Reid's team as they get "time flexed" to play host in primetime with their sizzling QB - Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes has throw a few picks the past 2 games, and while he did have another 4 TD passes last week, those interceptions along with the fact the Kansas City defense continues to yield big yards and big points tells me the points that Vegas is offering tonight are well worth investing in with the Cincinnati Bengals.
KC may be on a 10-0 spread roll, but consider that Cincy is 3-1 against the spread this year as the underdog, and on a 9-4-1 overall run as the underdog their last 14 when catching points.
The Bengals lost a tough one in the final minute last week at home to division-rival Pittsburgh, falling to 4-2 on the season, and the job gets no easier at night at Arrowhead, but Andy Dalton does have some weapons of his own he can turn to, and RB Joe Mixon is back in the lineup healthy.
Until the Chiefs defense becomes more consistent on the stop end, I am going to run with the potent Bengals plus the points to trade scoring shots with the Chiefs this Sunday night.
2* CINCINNATI
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DAVE COKIN
Event: (453) New England Patriots at (454) Chicago Bears
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 21, 2018 1PM EDT
Play: Chicago Bears 2.5 (-110)
New England is never easy to play against, and the Pats are back on a roll. But they're off an insane game with KC and Gronkowski is apparently out as he did not travel with the team for this game. Even the Patriots can be played against in spots like this. As for the Bears, we might find out what they're made of here. That's a tough loss they took at Miami last Sunday. But the fact remains this team should be 5-0. They blew the Green Bay game and they probably blew last week's game as well because they went way too conservative on offense in the overtime. That doesn't alter the opinion that the Bears are actually a pretty good football team and I think they've got a great shot to get the win in this game.
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BRUCE MARSHALL
463) Cincinnati Bengals
(464) Kansas City Chiefs
(463) Cincinnati Bengals
Chiefs are the new "America's Team" but they did lose that game last week and sit exactly where they were last season at 5-1. Bengals are resilient, have plenty of weapons, and Chiefs "D" leaves much to be desired. At nearly a TD, the spread could come into play. Play Bengals
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TRACE ADAMS
After being held under wraps the past 2 weeks - just 12 points versus Baltimore, 14 points against the Chargers - look for Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland offense to get back on track against a Tampa Bay defense that is so bad they fired their coordinator Mike Smith earlier this week.
The Buccaneers is allowing over 34 points per game this year, and not surprisingly, all 5 of Tampa's games have made their way Over the total!
Care to make it 6 for 6 Over?
The Browns have been involved in Overs in 2 of their last 3 games, and on the road the over has been connecting to a tune of 7-3 their last 10 away from Lake Erie, and 13 of their last 18 overall on the highway have also ended up in the Over column.
Baker should become the "Touchdown Maker" against this defense today.
Jameis Winston did throw 4 TD passes last weekend at Atlanta, but he also had a pair of interceptions versus a decimated Falcons secondary.
I like the points to add up to an Over at Raymond James Stadium today.
4* CLEVELAND-TAMPA BAY OVER
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MIKE WILLIAMS
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Browns vs. Bucs
1* on Browns +3½ -110
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BEN BURNS
NHL | Oct 21, 2018
Flames vs. Rangers
UNDER 6
The Rangers have already seen the "under" go a perfect 4-0 at MSG this season, games here averaging 4.5 combined goals. Meanwhile, the Flames have seen two of their last three road games fall below the number. After giving up five against Nashville last time out, they'll be determined to improve defensively; the "under" is 37-22 the past 2+ seasons, after they allowed four or more goals in their previous game. Consider the Under 6 goals.
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Randy Chambers
CLIPPERS+
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CHRIS JORDAN
My free play in the NFL for Week 7 is going to be the Over in the Interconference game between the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears.
This won't take long, as I'm on a conspiracy kick for this one. The New England Patriots are heading into dangerous territory to face the defensive minded Chicago Bears, with Khalil Mack leading the charge, and the number is 49 points.
Why?
Because the oddsmakers know this number is going to soar.
The Patriots, who have gone high in half their games this season, have shown they can keep out of the end zone just one time, in a 38-7 win against Miami. Toss that game out and they've allowed 20, 31, 26, 24 and 40 points. They come to Chicago after a short week - they played at home on Sunday night versus Kansas City - and face a hungry Bears team that is fully capable offensively.
That will leave Tom Brady to answer the call when his team needs him most.
The Bears, meanwhile, have gone over in their last two games, scoring 48 points against Tampa Bay, then allowing 31 in a three-point loss in Miami... the same Dolphins team the Pats held to 7 points.
Weird game, but the oddsmakers nailed it. This one goes high.
1* OVER Patriots-Bears
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ERIC SCHROEDER
If you were to ask me which team has had it worse this season, or, looked worse, I'd most certainly tell you the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are worse than the Cleveland Browns.
The Bucs have looked inconsistent and been listless at times on offense. They don't show the fire they should all 60 minutes of a game, and that's something I've been impressed by when speaking of the Browns.
Baker Mayfield has been impressive, even in defeat. And he's vowed to respond after a brutal loss last Sunday to the San Diego Chargers.
The Browns are 2-3-1 but are in the thick of an early AFC North chase that may end up in Ohio. Cincinnati and Baltimore sit atop the division with 4-2 marks, while Pittsburgh (3-2-1) is in front of Cleveland. But something tells me we will see every team in first place by the season's end.
And the team with the most toughness will remain in the end. I think that team could very well be the Browns, who have two wins in a season for the first time since 2015.
I love Cleveland in this spot on the road, against the struggling Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 2-3 and sitting in third place in the NFC South. The Bucs handed first-place New Orleans its only loss, but have been brutal ever since. They've been outscored by 32 points, and have the second-worst defense in the league.
Tampa Bay has shown toughness in stopping the run, but ranks dead last in stopping the pass.
Enter Mayfield, who has shown poise and maturity, and can take full advantage of this secondary. I expect him to put up big numbers in a favorable climate and lead the Browns to a win.
I'll play the road team in this one.
And like with all football plays in this point-spread range, I want you active in buying the half point. Anytime there is an underdog catching between +2.5 and +4, you are to buy the half point up.
3* BROWNS
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JIMMY BOYD
1* Free Pick on Cleveland Browns +3
Cleveland is worth a look here as a short road dog against the Bucs. Most will be drawn to Tampa Bay with the Browns off an ugly 38-14 loss at home to the Chargers and the Bucs narrowly missing out on a win at Atlanta. I think hit has Cleveland showing value here.
Tampa Bay has lost 3 straight and the defense continues to be awful and this is simply not a team you can trust laying points. The Bucs are 31st in the NFL, giving up 440 yards/game. They also have the 32nd ranked pass defense (355.8 ypg), which makes it near impossible to put teams away even if they do get a lead.
Cleveland is better than they showed against LA and keep in mind that's a Chargers team that is 4-2 with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the league in the Chiefs and Rams. I think the Browns can make Jameis Winston and the Bucs one-dimensional with the passing game and really pin their ears back and put pressure on the mistake-prone signal caller. Tampa Bay has 11 turnovers in their last 14 games and have won the turnover battle just once all season.
Bucs are 4-9 ATS as a home favorite with Winston as their starting quarterback and 12-26 in their last 38 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Cleveland!
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SCOTT RICKENBACH
NFL | Oct 21, 2018
Panthers vs. Eagles
Eagles-5
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Game #460 Sunday Free Pick Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - After this game the Eagles are headed to London to face the Jaguars, whom they nearly faced in last year's Super Bowl as the Jags almost (and should have) upset the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Following the trip to London is a bye week so the Eagles won't be back on their home field again until November 11th. Couple that with the fact that Philadelphia got jumped on by the Vikings in their most recent home game (down 17-3 at half) before they rallied but yet still fell short in the game, and you have the perfect scenario for the Eagles to come out strong in this game. Though Philly is off a divisional win over the Giants, the Eagles are actually a stellar 8-3 ATS their last 11 when off an NFC East game. Also, Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Panthers are on a 2-5 ATS run in road games with a posted total in a range of 42.5 to 45 points. The Eagles overcame a 126 to 1 penalty yardage deficit last season to still beat the Panthers by 5 in Carolina. You won't see that kind of discrepancy again in penalty yardage on their home field this time around! Free Pick PHILADELPHIA
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ROSS BENJAMIN
Bills @ Colts 1:00 PM ET
Game# 461-462
Play On: Bills +7.0
This is a battle of lousy teams and the Colts shouldn’t be a touchdown favorite against anybody. The difference in this game will be Buffalo’s defense. Since the 2nd half of their game against the Chargers in Week 2, Buffalo’s stop unit has played at an extremely high level. The Bills offense has been anemic this season, but they’ll be facing a Colts defense which has allowed 37 points or more in each of their previous 3 games. Indianapolis is arguably the most physically banged up team at this juncture. Take the Bills plus the points for my Sunday 10/21 NFL free pick.
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