Thursday 10/18/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAFB, NFL & MLB games.
Alex Smart
Oct 18 '18, 8:05 PM in 10h
NBA | Bulls vs 76ers
Play on: 76ers -11 -105 at 5Dimes
Oh boy. Here I go laying DD lumber again. It does happen every so often, but its not something I consistently like to do, as its not conducive to my general mindset of constantly trying to find value on the line. But this is situation does warrant such a wager based on the talent discrepancy on the floor, and this being the home opener for the Philadelphia 76ers. The Bulls continue their rebuild with a inexperienced young group, while the Sixers strive to move towards keeping their new found respectability intact and ascending into the upper echelons of the NBA elite after a long drought. Also after being manhandled by the Celtics on opening night by a 105-87 count , you can bet this group will be out to get some redemption and be extremely motivated to put the pedal to the metal and come out of this with a win they can build on. The one game these teams played here in Philly last season resulted in a 115-101 win for the Sixers and another similar margin of victory is according to my projections another high probability outcome.PHILADELPHIA is 27-14 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons . There were variations on the average point diff depending on the quality of opponent, with mean average clicking in around 10 ppg, but jumping into the 12.4 ppg range vs this categorized type of opposition based on my own systems.
The Bulls are 3-14 ATS L/17 on the road and 0-6 L/6 vs the Atlantic and go down as fade material on this line.
Play on the Philadelphia 76ers to cover
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Cole Faxon
Oct 18 '18, 8:20 PM in 10h
NFL | Broncos vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +2 -115
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Totals Guru
Oct 18 '18, 8:20 PM in 10h
NFL | Broncos vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +1½ -105
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Mark Wilson
Oct 18 '18, 8:20 PM in 10h
NFL | Broncos vs Cardinals
Play on: OVER 40 -112
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Cappers Club
Oct 18 '18, 8:20 PM in 10h
NFL | Broncos vs Cardinals
Play on: UNDER 42½ -110
Broncos vs Cardinals Under 42.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Denver Broncos and the Arizona Cardinals face off Thursday and in this game the value lies with the under.
This is a matchup between two quarterbacks who haven't been very dynamic this year. I expect both teams will be able to move the ball between the 20's but then will settle for a lot of field goals.
Some trends to note. Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games on grass.Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games overall.
Back the Under
Bobby Conn
Oct 18 '18, 8:35 PM in 10h
NHL | Coyotes vs Blackhawks
Play on: Blackhawks -143
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Jimmy Boyd
Oct 18 '18, 9:00 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | Stanford vs Arizona State
Play on: OVER 57 -115
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Marc Lawrence
Oct 18 '18, 9:00 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | Stanford vs Arizona State
Play on: Arizona State +2½ -105 at Bovada
Play - Arizona State (Game 306).
Edges - Sun Devils: 14-5 ATS as home dogs, including 10-1 ATS when coming off a loss; and host in this series is 5-2 ATS … Cardinal: 0-4 ATS away with rest … With that we recommend a 1* play on Arizona State. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Steve Janus
Oct 18 '18, 9:00 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | Stanford vs Arizona State
Play on: OVER 57 -110
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, October 18, 2018
10/18 07:35 PM PT / 10:35 PM ET
NBA (505) LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS (506) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Take: (505) LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Roz Wins
Roz's Thursday, October 18, 2018, Free Pick
10/18 05:05 PM NBA (503) MIAMI HEAT VS (504) WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Take : Wizards
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play for Thursday, October 18, 2018
10/18 05:20 PM NFL (301) DENVER BRONCOS VS (302) ARIZONA CARDINALS
Take : UNDER
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Thursday: Take MIAMI/WASHINGTON UNDER 212
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John Anthony Sports
Thursday's Free Selection: Chicago Blackhawks - 140
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Thursday: New Jersey Devils - 140
Tommy Brunson
The Cardinal have allowed some big numbers over their last 3 games - 31, 38 and 40 - and all 3 have played Over. Not surprisingly, they have lost 2 of those 3, including their last pair. Look for them to get back to playing a better brand of defense tonight after a week off to get rested and recharged. Remember, their first 3 games of the year saw them allow ONLY 23 total points, as all 3 landed Under the total.
The Sun Devils were also idle last week, giving them a little extra time to rest, and recharge. They enter having played an Under at Colorado their last time out, as they have been Under in 3 of their last 5 games played.
Last year's meeting was a 34-24 Under, as each of the last 3 between these Pacific 12 teams have landed Under and 7 of 9 overall dating back to 2006 have held Under when the schools have clashed.
I suspect strongly that the week off saw Stanford work very hard on shoring up their defense. Wilkins is a play-maker under center, but tonight the Cardinal "D" limits those big plays as we hold Under in Tempe.
Stanford-Arizona State Under.
3* STANFORD-ARIZONA STATE UNDER
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Ray Chadwick
Low total tonight, but with the way these offenses have struggled to put points on the board, the low is the way to go in Glendale this Thursday night in the Denver-Arizona meeting.
Denver has played 4 of their 6 on the year Under the total, as they have been only able to average 20 points per game this season. Dating back to last year, the Broncs have held Low in 9 of their last 13 games played.
Arizona has squeezed Over the total in 2 straight with Josh Rosen under center, but they are only averaging 13.6 points per game for the year, and the Under is 4-2 this year, and now 7-3 dating back to last year for the Cardinals.
I have a feeling that the Cardinals will see how the Broncos defense has allowed both the Jets and last week the Rams to run the ball effectively, and that could well mean a heavy dose of David Johnson with his mitts on the pigskin. That means a moving clock, and hopefully limited possessions with minimal points being tallied.
Broncos-Cardinals Under on Thursday.
3* DENVER-ARIZONA UNDER
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Trace Adams
Thursday comp play on the Over in the Red Sox-Astros game.
Why not?
Last night featured at least one run scored in the first 8 innings of play. The 9th was a pair of goose eggs, but by then there was already 14 runs plated!
That makes 4 games played, and 4 Overs in the books.
These teams have now played 11 times this year, and the Over is 9-2.
The Red Sox are also on a 15-3-1 Over run dating back to the regular season, while the Astros have played 6 of their 7 this postseason Over the posted price.
Very hard to poke a hole in those numbers, and with the mentally-fragile David Price on the hill, I say play another A.L.C.S. meeting to land Over the total.
Boston and Houston to continue to bat the ball all over the park.
5* BOSTON-HOUSTON OVER
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The Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Thursday: Take CHICAGO/PHILADELPHIA UNDER 215
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Arthur Ralph Sports
FREE play THURS: Portland -3 NBA
Hawkeye Sports
Thursday's Free Pick: NY Islanders + 165
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Washington -4; NBA
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Golden Dragon Sports
FREE WINNER for Thursday
LA Lakers/Portland under 222
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick the Washington Wizards -4½ over Miami
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#1 Sports
Thursday's Free Selection: New Jersey Devils - 140
Atlantic Sports
Thursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Philadelphia Flyers + 140
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Totals4U
Thursday's Free Selection: Colorado/New Jersey over 6
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: CHICAGO/PHILADELPHIA UNDER the total of 213½
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: Free Portland -3½ Over LA Lakers
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Brandon Lee
Oct 18 '18, 7:30 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Georgia State vs Arkansas State
Play on: OVER 56½ -105
10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Over 56.6)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 56.5 in Thursday's Sun Belt action between Georgia State and Arkansas State. I just think the number here has been set too low for how bad these two teams are defensively.
Georgia State comes into this game ranked 120th in the country in total defense, giving up 491.5 ypg, and they aren’t good against either the run (244.2 ypg, 124th) or the pass (247.3 ypg, 99th). We have already seen them give up more than the total in a game this season, as they allowed 59 points to Memphis and it could have been a lot worse, as the Tigers had 38 at the half.
While Arkansas State scored just 9 points in their last game against the Mountaineers, Appalachian State has arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. Even with that poor showing, the Red Wolves are still an impressive 36th in the country in total offense (449 ypg). My guess is Arkansas State’s offense will be chomping at the bit to get back on track and I just don’t see the Panthers being able to stop them from scoring on the majority of their possessions.
The key here is that we should also get a decent output here from Georgia State offense. While Arkansas State enters with the 4th ranked pass defense, a big reason for that is they can’t stop the run. The Red Wolves are 125th in the country vs the run, giving up 244.7 ypg. We saw this Panthers offense go off when they were able to expose the run defense of ULM. Georgia State rushed for 308 yards and posted a season-high 46 points. I don’t think they score into the 40s, but all we likely need to eclipse the mark is for them to be around 21-24 points.
The OVER is also a solid 17-7-1 in Arkansas State’s last 25 home games against a team with a losing road record and 13-6 in their last 19 off a double-digit loss at home. It’s also worth noting that the last 10 times the Red Wolves have played at home off a home loss, the average score in these contests was 52.3. I think given how bad Georgia State is defensively, this one will get into the 60s. Give me the OVER 56.5!
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Mike Williams
Oct 18 '18, 8:05 PM in 6h
NBA | Heat vs Wizards
Play on: OVER 213 -110
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Jack Jones
Oct 18 '18, 8:05 PM in 6h
MLB | Red Sox vs Astros
Play on: Astros -1½ +115 at 5Dimes
Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Houston Astros -1.5 (+115)
The Houston Astros have their backs against the wall tonight. They are down 3-1 in this series to the Red Sox and in a must-win situation. And there’s nobody they’d rather have on the mound than ace Justin Verlander for this huge spot. I expect the Astros to win by two runs or more and cover this run line.
Verlander is 18-9 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.901 WHIP in 36 starts this season. Verlander has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts against the Red Sox. He is 4-2 with a 1.83 ERA while allowing just 13 earned runs in 64 innings in those 10 starts.
David Price is one of the worst postseason starters in history. He is winless in 11 career postseason starts, going 0-9 with a 6.16 ERA in those 11 starts. He is 0-1 with a 9.95 ERA in two starts this postseason while allowing 7 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings to the Astros and Yankees. He was warming up in the bullpen last night, so that could throw him off as well.
The Astros are 7-0 in Verlander’s last seven starts and should win this game by two runs or more with him shutting down the Red Sox, and the Astros getting after Price early and often. Bet the Astros on the Run Line Thursday.
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Info Plays
Oct 18 '18, 8:05 PM in 6h
NBA | Bulls vs 76ers
Play on: Bulls +12 -110
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John Martin
Oct 18 '18, 8:05 PM in 6h
MLB | BOS vs HOU
Play on: OVER 8 -104
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Red Sox/Astros OVER 8
The OVER in this series is the gift that keeps on giving. The OVER is 4-0 in this series with combined scores of 9 runs in Game 1, 12 runs in Game 2, 10 runs in Game 3 and 14 runs in Game 4. These are the two most potent offenses in baseball, yet the oddsmakers keep setting these totals between 7.5 and 8.5 runs. And this total has been set at 8 runs tonight, which is too low once again. That’s especially the case with David Price on the mound. Price is 0-9 with a 6.16 ERA in 11 previous postseason starts. The Astros could cover this total on their own. The OVER is 37-16-1 in the last 54 meetings, including 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Houston. The OVER is 15-3-1 in Red Sox last 19 games overall. The OVER is 15-2-1 in Astros last 18 games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games. Give me the OVER.
Dustin Hawkins
Oct 18 '18, 8:05 PM in 6h
NHL | Canucks vs Jets
Play on: Jets -230
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Martin Griffiths
Oct 18 '18, 8:05 PM in 6h
NBA | Bulls vs 76ers
Play on: 76ers -11 -105 at 5Dimes
My free pick won again yesterday, that is two days in a row with my free NBA picks and tonight I am going for a three-timer with the 76ers to cover the spread against the Bulls.
The Bulls do not impress me on the road at all and are still in transition, the 76ers will kick on from their opening game loss and I expect to see a significant improvement from them, they have almost everything going in their favour and I am confident they will win this one by more than 11 points.
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Sal Michaels
Oct 18 '18, 9:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Stanford vs Arizona State
Play on: OVER 59 -109
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Dave Price
Oct 18 '18, 10:35 PM in 9h
NBA | Lakers vs Blazers
Play on: Lakers +3 -103 at 5Dimes
Dave’s Friday Free Play:
1* on Los Angeles Lakers +3
The Key: Getting Lebron James as an underdog is usually a good proposition. James had plenty of time this preseason to get used to his new teammates and should come out firing Thursday night in their season opener. He’s brought with him some good pieces in Rajon Rondo, JaVale McGee, Lance Stephenson and Michael Beasley. And the young core of Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma gives the Lakers a very bright future. Take Los Angeles.
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