Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 10/11/18
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants Preview and Predictions 10-11-2018 in NFL
NFL Previews 9th October 2018 by Gracenote
Eagles vs. Giants Preview and Predictions
by Gracenote on 10/09/2018
The reigning Super Bowl champions hardly have the look of a contender, much less one of the teams to beat through the first five weeks of the season. Coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since 2016, the Philadelphia Eagles look to put an end to their mini-slide when they visit the New York Giants on Thursday night in an NFC East matchup.
After dropping a 23-21 decision to Minnesota on Sunday in a rematch of last season's NFC Championship Game, Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz said a short work week might be the best thing for his team to snap out of its funk. "The beautiful thing for us right now is that it's a fast turnaround," Wentz said. "We get to get the bad taste in our mouths out fast and go on the road to New York. Thursday night will be here before we know it. ... We don't have to dwell on it too long." The abrupt turnaround could also help the reeling Giants, who are dealing with drama off the field courtesy of comments by star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. while trying to erase the memory of Sunday's crushing 33-31 loss at Carolina on a 63-yard field goal. New York coach Pat Shurmur said he addressed Beckham's criticisms of both quarterback Eli Manning and the team's play-calling and said there was no reason to belabor the issue "because the locker room took care of it. And that's all I'm saying on it. Finito. Done."
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX, NFL Network. LINE: Eagles -3. O/U: 44
ABOUT THE EAGLES (2-3): Philadelphia's offense, which already has been struggled and has yet to put up more than 23 points in a game, received a jarring blow Monday when starting running back Jay Ajayi was lost for the season due to a torn ACL. While trade reports swirl in Philly, the Eagles will likely use the tandem of Wendell Smallwood and Corey Clement against a New York defense that ranks 27th against the run. Philadelphia could also go the aerial route with Wentz targeting Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz, who has a team-leading 41 receptions. Philadelphia has the league's No. 2-ranked rushing defense, surrendering 66.4 yards per game.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (1-4): Beckham had his best game Sunday, finding the end zone for the first time while hauling in eight receptions for 131 yards -- his third 100-yard effort of the season. He also threw a 57-yard touchdown pass to rookie running back Saquon Barkley, who can become the second player in league history to account for at least 100 yards from scrimmage in the first six games of his career. Manning threw for a season-high 326 yards at Carolina last week and also had a season high with 434 yards passing in a 34-29 loss to Philadelphia in December. Linebacker Olivier Vernon could make his season debut Thursday for a defense that has a league-low 6.0 sacks.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Philadelphia has won three straight and four of five in the series but each game was decided by five points or fewer.
2. New York placed starting RT Ereck Flowers on waivers Tuesday.
3. Wentz has 11 touchdown passes and two interceptions in his past five division matchups.
PREDICTION: Eagles 24, Giants 23
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October 11, 2018
By Tony Mejia
Philadelphia (-3, 44) at N.Y. Giants, 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN
No team suffered a more painful loss than the Giants in Week 5, having battled back from a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to grab a late lead at Carolina before Graham Gano stepped in with an improbable game-winning 63-yard field goal.
The aftermath of the disappointing loss also included WR Odell Beckham Jr. addressing a controversial interview he did with ESPN in which he essentially threw all of his teammates under the bus as hip-hop artist and fellow New Orleans native Lil’ Wayne nodded sympathetically. He questioned the passion and heart of teammates and didn’t take up for quarterback Eli Manning, responding “I don’t know” when asked if the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer was to blame for the team’s offensive struggles.
He could’ve accurately responded that the entire offensive line was to blame and been similarly criticized but the fact is even doing an interview of that nature barely a month into the regular season is a bad look. Unapologetic, Beckham took credit for inspiring teammates to what was the team’s best performance in weeks.
His tone deaf stance has served one purpose for New York however, deflecting attention from the Giants essentially facing what feels like a must-win at home as the defending Super Bowl champs come in for the first of two regular-season meetings. Instead of answering questions about pressure and a short week, the Giants have had a noisy distraction to suppress their real issues. They’ve also been handed a ready-made scapegoat should this Thursday night contest not go their way.
New York has been a major disappointment in spite of a coaching change that brought the highly respected Pat Shurmur into run the show. Although No. 2 overall pick Saquon Barkley has shown flashes of brilliance, he’s got just 100-yard rushing game under his belt. The league’s longest run of games between scoring 30 points finally ended, but it took a trick play and some fourth-quarter magic to get the job done.
The Eagles visit on the heels of a disappointing home loss to Minnesota in which they fell behind 20-3 and saw their comeback fall short. Running back Jay Ajayi was injured in the loss, but the revelation he tore his ACL was a nasty surprise to pile on to a disappointing start on the heels of the team’s first Super Bowl victory.
Nick Foles was at the controls for Philly’s Thursday night victory over Atlanta to open the season, but that game put a suspect offense on display from Day 1. Carson Wentz’s Week 3 return following a disappointing loss at Tampa Bay produced a victory over Indianapolis when a Hail Mary went unanswered. Still, the Eagles have remained flat despite regaining his services. WR Alshon Jeffery just rejoined the fold after his own injury woes and the newly signed Jordan Matthews is building chemistry with Wentz, so there’s no question the Eagles can be optimistic as they attempt to get back to .500.
Philadelphia has scored 23 or fewer points in every game this season and has been involved exclusively in one-possession games, so finding the Giants on the schedule might be a welcome sight. The Eagles have dominated New York over the past few seasons, winning seven of the last eight meetings. If you ago all the way back to 2008, Philly has prevailed in 15 of 19, although the last five have all been one-possession games as well.
Barkley, a native of the Bronx, has scored in each of his first two home dates and will be looking for his first win at Met Life Stadium in addition to his first win against a divisional foe after losing in Dallas a few weeks back. Beckham, whose miscue on a punt return proved costly and balanced out his TD pass and work at receiver against Carolina, has caught 50 passes for over 700 yards and six touchdowns against the Giants. He’s had success, but his team hasn’t.
That sounds familiar. New York will look to reverse that trend as it seeks its first home win since the 2017 regular-season finale against Washington last New Year’s Eve. The Giants lost their first four home games last season and is now 2-8 over their last 10 at Met Life Stadium, covering just three times.
Philadelphia will be looking to avoid what would be its third straight loss, something it hasn’t experienced since dropping five in a row from Nov 20-Dec. 18 in 2016.
Philadelphia Eagles
Season win total: 10.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win NFC East: 10/11 to 10/11
Odds to win NFC: 10/1 to 13/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 20/1 to 25/1
New York Giants
Season win total: 7 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win NFC East: 15/1 to 12/1
Odds to win NFC: 50/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1
LINE MOVEMENT
Given how poorly the entire division fared last week and how wide open things are through the first five games, it's most interesting that the Eagles were such a heavy favorite to win the NFC East again. The Eagles opened the season as a 5-to-7 favorite to repeat as divisional champs after last year's 13-3 finish saw them clear their closest pursuers by a full four games. New York finished last in '17 but opened as an appealing 8-to-1 to win the NFC East last April and were down to 5-to-1 to open Week 1. The Eagles remain (10/11) roughly even money to finish atop the division despite trailing Washington by a half-game.
Only New Orleans (9/2), Minnesota (7/1) and Chicago (12/1) have better odds than these teams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl than Philly. Only Arizona and San Francisco (1,000/1) have worse odds than the Giants.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Eagles were installed as a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week but have been laying a field goal all week across the board with very little movement. The total opened at 45 but dipped steadily and is most widely available at 44 with a few 43.5s out there.
Philadelphia is at -150 on the money line at most spots with the wager of a buck on New York to win straight up netting a return of +125 to +135 depending on the shop. The Eagles' team total is set at 23.5 while the Giants are available at 20.5 at most shops.
INJURY CONCERNS
Lane Johnson, Philly's standout right tackle, has practiced and will play, alleviating this game's biggest question mark.
Ajayi’s injury means that the Eagles lose their primary back, taking away the battering ram concept that served them so well last season since they already had LeGarrette Blount when they added him from Miami. Blount is in Detroit now and Darren Sproles is still dealing with a hamstring issue, so look for the trend of using the short passing game as an extension of the run to continue here with Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood doing the bulk of the work.
Philadelphia also has issues on defense, having ruled out DT Haloti Ngata (calf) and safety Corey Graham (hamstring), whose absence could result in a big day for the passing game if Manning is accurate and gets time to throw. Top Giants pass-rusher Olivier Vernon will make his 2018 debut for New York, so its defense has a chance to bounce back after surrendering 33 points each of the last two weeks and recording just six sacks all season while doubling as one of the NFL’s worst teams in stopping the run.
Giants backup tight end Rhett Ellison is questionable with a foot injury, which is a big deal since starter Evan Engram (knee) has been ruled out. WR Russell Shepard (neck) won’t play either.
RECENT MEETINGS (Philadelphia 9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS last 12; OVER 8-4)
12/17/17 Philadelphia 34-29 at N.Y. Giants (NYG +7.5, 40.5)
9/24/17 Philadelphia 27-24 vs. N.Y. Giants (NYG +5, 43)
12/22/16 Philadelphia 24-19 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 42.5)
11/6/16 N.Y. Giants 28-23 vs. Philadelphia (NYG -3, 42.5)
1/3/16 Philadelphia 35-30 at N.Y. Giants (PHI -5, 51)
10/19/15 Philadelphia 27-7 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -5, 49.5)
12/28/14 Philadelphia 34-26 at N.Y. Giants (PK'em, 52)
10/12/14 Philadelphia 27-0 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 51)
10/27/13 N.Y. Giants 15-7 at Philadelphia (NYG +5.5, 49)
10/6/13 Philadelphia 36-21 at N.Y. Giants (PHI +1.5, 53.5)
12/30/12 N.Y. Giants 42-7 vs. Philadelphia (NYG -6.5, 44.5)
9/30/12 Philadelphia 19-17 vs. N.Y. Giants (PHI -1.5, 46.5)
PROPS
Of the props available below at Westgate, I'd ride the first score being a field goa for the value and like the under on Barkley rush yardage since the Giants move him around and have only given him over 15 carries twice thus far and he hasn't topped the 50 yards rushing in either of the last two weeks.
First score: (Touchdown -150, FG/Safety +130)
Carson Wentz passing yards (292.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
Carson Wentz TD passes (2): Over -125, 2nd + OT +100)
Zach Ertz receiving yards (67.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
Eli Manning completions (24.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
Eli Manning TD passes (1.5): (Over +110, Under -130)
Saquon Barkley rush yards (60.5): (Over -110, Under -110)
QB sacks (4.5): (Over -130, Under +110)
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 6
Thursday. October 11
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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) at NY GIANTS (1 - 4) - 10/11/2018, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Week 6
Trend Report
Thursday. October 11
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 12 games
NY Giants is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games at home
NY Giants is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Giants is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
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AJAYI TEARS ACL
Philadelphia running back Jay Ajayi was diagnosed with a torn ACL late Monday afternoon and is out for the season. This is brutal news for the Eagles’ backfield as they’re already without Corey Clement (quad) and Darren Sproles (hamstring), though neither has been officially ruled out for Thursday’s game at the New York Giants.
The injuries at running back likely mean that the Eagles will need to rely a bit more on Carson Wentz, both with his arm and his legs. Although he has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back games, it’s hard to back him through the air because of how terrible the Eagles’ offensive line has been. Wentz has been sacked 12 times in his three games played already this season and seemed to be under pressure nearly every time he dropped back against Minnesota on Sunday. Even though the Giants don’t have a great pass rush, we still expect Wentz to see pressure and to be forced out of the pocket quite a bit. We’re going to back the Over on his rushing total for Thursday night.
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