Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 10/11/18
By Joe Nelson
This week’s Thursday night game is a prominent Big XII clash as Texas Tech and TCU face off. While both teams are closer to the bowl bubble than the Big XII title game at this point in the season, this will be a key game in the conference pecking order not to mention one of the main rivalry games of the season for both squads.
Match-up: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Venue: At Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 11, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: TCU -7, Over/Under 62
Last Meeting: 2017, TCU (-7) 27, at Texas Tech 3
This line on this game was released late with questionable quarterback situations for both teams. Since the ‘West Texas Championship’ renewed on an annual basis in 2012 these squad have each won the Saddle Trophy three times with the road team now winning the past three years.
Both TCU and Texas Tech are knotted at 1-1 in league play and while West Virginia and Texas are both 3-0 on top of the standings, those teams will need to face off and both have some difficult hurdles remaining as it is still a wide-open race for a spot in the Big XII title game. The Big XII has Texas back in the national spotlight rising to the top 10 of the polls but the conference as a whole is likely clinging to a long shot 13-0 run for West Virginia in regard to the national playoffs with Oklahoma upset last week.
TCU looked the part of a Big XII contender and possible national sleeper with a 2-0 start and an 8-point lead over Ohio State well into the third quarter in a big mid-September game in Arlington. The Buckeyes scored three touchdowns in four minutes to send TCU’s season spiraling in the other direction. The Frogs lost to the Texas the following week with a combined seven turnovers in those two defeats before getting back on track in late September with a narrow 17-14 victory hosting Iowa State.
A critical sixth season for Kliff Kingsbury coaching his alma mater started poorly with a 24-7 1st quarter deficit against Ole Miss in Houston on the opening Saturday, with starting quarterback McLane Carter injured. Freshman Alan Bowman was handed the offense from there and posted big numbers including leading notable wins over Houston and Oklahoma State. Bowman was seriously injured and hospitalized after taking a hit in the 42-34 loss to West Virginia with the Red Raiders down to sophomore Jett Duffey for the duration of that game. All three quarterbacks may be available for this week’s game.
For TCU sophomore quarterback Shawn Robinson has had mixed results with six interceptions in four FBS games but offering big play potential in the air and on the ground. Robinson was injured late in the win over Iowa State with a shoulder issue on his non-throwing arm and while he has been cleared to return, Gary Patterson has hinted that he may not start this week with sophomore Michael Collins likely to play in the game as well. Collins has only thrown 14 passes this season and not in any meaningful moments.
Texas Tech was anticipating being a stronger defensive team this season as after years of being consistently involved in shootouts, the Red Raiders improved dramatically in the defensive numbers last season. This year the positive gains haven’t been there despite an experienced unit led by linebacker and future NFL draft pick Dakota Allen. Texas Tech has allowed nearly 450 yards per game and 31 points per game including allowing 42 or more points in three of four FBS games.
Patterson has a reputation for defense and this year’s team has allowed fewer than 21 points per game, holding three of five foes to 14 or fewer points. Texas and Ohio State combined to score 71 points against the Horned Frogs but a 7-0 turnover deficit in those games contributed significantly. TCU has only surrendered 178 passing yards per game this season and that will be the key matchup against a Red Raiders offense averaging 408 passing yards per game. TCU is 14th nationally allowing only 5.7 yards per pass attempt while Texas Tech has allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt although opposing quarterbacks have completed below 56 percent of throws against both teams.
With Oklahoma up next this is a critical spot for TCU as a 1-3 Big XII start would be realistic with a loss this week. TCU will still have to play in Morgantown in November as a bowl bid could even be cast into a doubt for a squad that was projected to compete for a Big XII title after being the runner-up last season. The stakes may be higher for Texas Tech who still has Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas on the schedule. If the Red Raiders fall to 3-3 overall this week they might be in line for another dramatic run in late November with Kingsbury in danger of missing a bowl game for the third time in six seasons.
Last season: TCU was 8-2 heading to Lubbock last November in the game following a 38-20 loss at Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs turned in a great performance with a 27-3 win on the road. The defense did the heavy lifting as TCU managed only 289 yards of offense and led just 10-3 late in the third quarter. TCU completed only six passes in the game in what was Robinson’s first career start and then added a late defensive score. That loss left Texas Tech at 5-6 but they beat Texas in the season finale to earn a bowl bid. The three-point showing was the lowest output for Texas Tech since losing 12-3 at TCU in 2006.
Historical Trends:
Texas Tech is 14-8 S/U and 14-10 ATS in this series since 1980, covering in 13 of the past 19 meetings.
TCU has won S/U in three of the past four games but has lost S/U and ATS in two of the past three home games in the series.
TCU has won S/U in eight consecutive home games since the start of last season but is just 3-12 ATS at home since the start of the 2016 season.
TCU is 1-5 S/U and ATS in six instances since 2016 as a home favorite of 10 or fewer points.
Texas Tech is 22-14 ATS on the road since 2011 including going 8-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2015 with five S/U upsets.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs Preview and Predictions
NCAAF Previews 9th October 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 10/09/2018
At this point, TCU is not giving its fans much reason for optimism. The scuffling Horned Frogs continue a three-game homestand Thursday when high-powered Texas Tech visits in a Big 12 showdown.
The Horned Frogs, who were ranked 14th before losing back-to-back games to No. 3 Ohio State and No. 14 Texas last month, narrowly escaped Iowa State their last time out. They needed a field goal with 37 seconds remaining to avoid a three-game skid, and now face a Red Raiders team that is playing well of late. Texas Tech won three straight games in September before giving No. 6 West Virginia all it could handle in a 42-34 defeat to close out the month. The Red Raiders played the second half of that contest without quarterback Alan Bowman (partially collapsed lung), who is expected to play Thursday.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: TCU -7
ABOUT TEXAS TECH (3-2, 1-1 Big 12): The Red Raiders lead the nation in total offense (591.4 yards per game) and rank eighth in scoring offense (48.4 points) entering Thursday's matchup. Bowman, a freshman who threw for 605 yards and five touchdowns against Houston on Sept. 15, is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 1,680 yards with a crisp 11-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The team has 18 rushing touchdowns, including seven from leading rusher Ta'Zhawn Henry, while Jett Duffey - who relieved Bowman at quarterback last week - is averaging 8.0 yards per carry on 21 attempts.
ABOUT TCU (3-2, 1-1): TCU failed to reach 300 total yards of offense against Iowa State and also committed three turnovers, but still prevailed thanks to a crisp 13-of-22 conversion rate on third and fourth downs, combined with a strong defensive effort. Shawn Robinson is expected to play after he suffered a shoulder injury late in the Cyclones game, although he has surpassed 200 yards passing only once in five games this season. Darius Anderson (316 yards) is the team's leading rusher despite a poor two-game stretch (24 carries for 57 yards) heading into Thursday.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Texas Tech WR Antoine Wesley leads the Big 12 with 124.2 receiving yards per game.
2. TCU has won three of the last four meetings, including a 27-3 rout a season ago.
3. The Horned Frogs are looking to win their ninth straight home game.
PREDICTION: TCU 39, Texas Tech 37
__________________
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Texas State Bobcats Preview and Predictions in NCAAF
The Georgia Southern Eagles scored a very nice victory last time out, and look like they have created a pathway to a bowl game, although they have not fared well in recent history when they've had short rest. This perfect pointspread team would like to change that.
The Texas State Bobcats can't put four quarters of football together, and their head coach is scratching his head hoping for answers that may not come.
These teams will get together on Thursday night in a game that will begin at 7:30 PM ET at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, TX.
Trending Previews
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs Preview and Predictions 18347 Bets | 6 Picks | 10 hours, 27 minutes for the game
TV: ESPNU, 7:30 PM ET. LINE: Georgia Southern -17
ABOUT GEORGIA SOUTHERN: The Eagles took care of business in rather routine fashion on Saturday against South Alabama, chalking up 295 rushing yards in a 48-13 victory. At the moment, they've got a 4-1 straight-up record, and they are 5-0 against the points. But in the last four instances that they have played on short rest, they've come up losers. Currently, the Eagles are the second-best team in the country in turnover margin (+10), not to mention being ranked seventh in the nation in rushing. Shai Werts is the architect of the attack; in his career, he is accounted for 11 touchdowns rushing and 11 touchdowns passing. In this kind of offense, it always helps to have an all-around threat, which GS has in Wesley Kennedy. All told, he has averaged 125.6 all-purpose yards per game, which is better than any other player in the Sun Belt Conference. Two games ago, when the Eagles scored in a 28-21 victory over perennial Sun Belt contender Arkansas State, Kennedy scored on a 47-yard reverse to win the game with 19 seconds to go. In that contest, Georgia Southern racked up 348 yards on the ground and won the game despite only one pass completion from Werts. Kudos go to the quarterback, whose home in South Carolina was burnt to the ground in a grease fire during fall practice, as he has had to operate with a lot of adversity.
ABOUT TEXAS STATE: This beleaguered squad suffered yet another defeat this past week, losing 42-27 against Louisiana-Lafayette, in what head coach Everett Withers called a "very poor performance." It was even less impressive, considering they had just come off a bye week. One of the things that do not bode well for Texas State (1-4 SU & ATS) is that they allowed the Ragin' Cajuns to rush for 327 net yards. They could be missing some defensive players as well; AJ Krawczyk was in concussion protocol and missed last week's game. Also, starting defensive end Dean Taylor and backup Jaquel Pierce have injuries that have put them in the "questionable" category. If there was something encouraging, it's that freshman Tyler Vitt may have solidified his hold on the starting quarterback position. Originally he had to step in because of an injury to Willie Jones, and he got off to a very rough start last week, with 72 passing yards in the first half, during which time ULL went up 28-0. But then he came alive and put some balance into the Bobcat attack. When all was said and done, that went 28-of-39 for 296 yards and three touchdowns. He also added 92 yards on the ground, so it's likely he'll get his second collegiate start this week. Whether coach Withers has enough time to right the ship is another story. In a post-game press conference, he explained that he would have to "look and evaluate everything from A-Z" when it came to finding some answers for his team.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Georgia Southern offensive coordinator Bob DeBesse played his college ball at Texas State and was also the Bobcats' head coach for six seasons (1997-2002), when the institution was known as Southwest Texas State.
2. Georgia Southern is the much more decorated program here, winning Division 1-A A titles in 1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1999 and 2000.
3. Georgia Southern is a rather young team; only six schools in the country have a higher percentage of roster players that are either true or redshirt freshmen.
PREDICTION: Georgia State 41, Texas State 20
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Thursday, October 11
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TEXAS TECH (3 - 2) at TCU (3 - 2) - 10/11/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992.
TCU is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GA SOUTHERN (4 - 1) at TEXAS ST (1 - 4) - 10/11/2018, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
__________________
NCAAF
Week 7
Trend Report
Thursday, October 11
Texas Tech @ Texas Christian
Texas Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games on the road
Texas Tech is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas Christian
Texas Christian
Texas Christian is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Texas Christian is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
Georgia Southern @ Texas State
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Texas State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas State's last 6 game
__________________
NCAAF
Week 7
Thursday’s games
TCU lost two of last three games; they were minus-9 in turnovers in those games, and were held to 16-17 points in last two games. Horned Frogs are 2-10-1 vs spread in last 13 games as home favorites. Texas Tech scored 46 ppg in its last three games; they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as road underdogs. Road team won last three Texas Tech-TCU games; Tech won two of last three visits here, with both wins by 3 points, the loss was 82-27 in ’14. Underdogs covered four of last six series games. Big X home favorites are 3-5 vs spread this season.
Georgia Southern won both its games with Texas State 37-13/28-25, with last meeting in ’15. Eagles are 4-1 this season, 4-0 vs spread; their only loss was 38-7 at Clemson- this is GSU’s first road game since then. GSU covered only one of last five games as road favorites. Texas State is 0-4 vs I-A teams, with only one loss by less than 10 points; Bobcats gave up 327 rushing yards LW is 42-27 home loss to ULL. Under Withers, TSU is 3-8 vs spread as home underdogs. Three of four Georgia Southern games stayed under.
__________________