Sunday 10/7/18 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAFB, NFL & MLB games.
Chris Ruffolo
COWBOYS+
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Andrew Jett
EAGLES
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Randy Chambers
CAROLINA NFL
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TEDDY COVERS
Event: (469) Arizona Cardinals at (470) San Francisco 49ers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 7, 2018 4PM EDT
Play: San Francisco 49ers -4.0 (-108)
Take San Francisco (#470)
The betting markets crashed on San Francisco last week, following the Jimmy Garappolo season ending injury. Money poured in against the Niners as they traveled to LA to face the high octane Chargers. San Fran covered that game ATS wire-2-wire, and nearly pulled off the outright upset with CJ Beathard behind center. Yet the money is flowing against San Fran once again this week. I’m not buying that the markets are reading the current state of the 49ers correctly, especially given Beathard’s ATS success both last year and this.
Yes, the Niners have multiple injury concerns, including CB Richard Sherman and a handful of guys on the offensive line. But they had injury concerns last week as well. And head coach Kyle Shanahan has a gameplan; not panicking in the slightest: ‘You hope to weather the storm and get through it and win some close games and you hope to get healthier as it goes, just like we did last year.”
In their only previous home game, San Fran led Detroit 30-13 before the Lions came through the backdoor behind Matthew Stafford’s arm. Josh Rosen isn’t Matthew Stafford just yet, and the Niners talked repeatedly about closing out games better following their fourth quarter debacle against the Lions. If San Fran has a second half lead this time, I expect them to hold it for the spread cover.
Arizona isn’t 0-4 by accident. Only the Bills have gained less than ‘Zona’s 4.2 yards per play. Buffalo is also the only team with a worse offense to defense ratio on yards per play – the Cards are getting outgained by 1.3 yards on every SNAP in 2018. Josh Rosen is a rookie QB making his first road start behind a weak offensive line and without many playmakers around him. The fact that San Fran has lost seven straight in this divisional rivalry only makes the case for the Niners that much stronger – they’re coming to play and this year, San Fran is the better team. Take the 49ers
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COLE FAXON
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Packers vs. Lions
FREE PLAY on Lions +1 -105
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JIMMY BOYD
1* Free Pick on Rams/Seahawks OVER 50
No need to overthink this one. The Rams are right there with Kansas City in terms of offensive fire-power. They are averaging 35.0 ppg and 468 ypg, but the even more impressive stat is the fact that they are averaging 7.5 yards/play. I know Seattle is not an easy place to play, but with the loss of Earl Thomas, I think things could get really ugly on that side of the ball for the Seahawks.
The last time these two teams played was in Seattle late last year and the Rams put up 42 points and had 34 at the half. I wouldn't be the least big surprised if they scored into the 40's and certainly like their chances of at least hitting their season average.
I don't think it will be easy for the Seahawks offensively, but I think with Russell Wilson calling the shots and the game being at home, they can score close to 20. Wilson's ability to scramble and make plays out of the pocked will be huge here and this LA secondary was exposed some last time out, as Kirk Cousins threw for 392 yards on 36 of 50 passing.
OVER is 6-2 in the Rams last 8 as a favorite of 4 to 11 points and 5-1 in their last 6 as a road favorite. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Seahawks last 7 after allowing 17 points or less in each of their last two games and the average combined scores in these 7 games has been 58.3. Take the OVER!
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KENNY WALKER
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Rams vs. Seahawks
Seahawks+7½ -105
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TOTALS GURU
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Raiders vs. Chargers
Chargers-5
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INFO PLAYS
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Titans vs. Bills
1* Free Play on Titans -3½ -105
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SEAN MURPHY
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Falcons vs. Steelers
OVER 58
Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This is the highest total we've seen so far this season but after cashing the 'over' with ease in each of the Falcons last two games, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. This is truly a dream matchup for fantasy players as both offenses should go off. The Falcons will be leaving the dome for the first time in four games but I believe they're well-suited to keep things rolling against a truly porous Steelers defense that simply hasn't been the same since losing LB Ryan Shazier last season. Even Ravens QB Joe Flacco and his limited receiving corps was able to torch this unit last Sunday night. Now Matt Ryan enters this matchup with his full compliment of offensive weapons and should have a field day. On the flip side, the Steelers offense continues to scuffle along with QB Ben Roethlisberger looking old to be quite honest. He's been completely out of sync with WR Antonio Brown but this is an ideal 'get right' matchup against a decimated Falcons defense. It seems like Atlanta loses another key cog on defense with each passing week. The Steelers should be able to get whatever they want against this unit with RB James Conner taking on a more prominent role in the offensive gameplan this week. Look for he and Antonio Brown to pace the charge in what amounts to a shootout at Heinz Field.
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CHIP CHIRIMBES
Atlanta at Pittsburgh 1:00 ET
Falcons/Steelers (OVER)
This is simple I don't see how anybody can possibly play either of these tow teams to stay 'Under' the total as needer of them play defense and neither of them has any kind of run game therefore they are passing 50 or more times a game (each). I see winning easily unless there is total 'red zone' break downs. It's little funny that these two playoff clubs have just two wins in eight games but the one thing that has been consistent is they both score points and they both surrender bucket loads of points. Atlanta scores 29 and allows 30.5 while Pittsburgh scores 25.5 and allows 29. This should develop into a great shootout between 'Big Ben' Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan who has 10 TD's and only 2 Ints. Play the OVER!
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MARK WILSON
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Vikings vs. Eagles
Free Play on Eagles -3 -105
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TIM MICHAEL
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Eagles (FREE PLAY)
Philadelphia is just 2-2 after four weeks, but it’s undefeated at home and I think that trend carries over here. Most recently the Eagles fell in Tennessee last week. Minnesota played last Thursday night and it fell apart down the stretch against the Rams. I think a similar fate awaits the Vikes in this difficult road venue. Remember, Minnesota also lost 27-6 at home to the Bills. Carson Wentz was sacked four times in last week’s 26-23 OT loss to Tennessee. Since returning from injury though he’s completed 66.7 percent of his passes with three TD’s and one INT. Philadelphia is also 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at home, while Minnesota is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road in this series. Consider the Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Philadelphia.
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ART ARONSON
This is a 1* Free Play on the OVER Ravens/Browns.
Cleveland comes in off a 45-42 OT road loss in Oakland and we’re expecting another wild, wide-open affair here as well. Baltimore is 3-1 and it’ll be looking to match pace after it’s confidence building 26-14 victory at Heinz Field last Sunday. QB Joe Flacco was excellent by going 28 of 42 for 363 yards, two TD’s and picks. Flacco now looks to take advantage of a Browns defense which just gave up 565 yards to Oakland. Cleveland rookie QB Baker Mayfield will once again be given the “green light” to air it out today though, last week he was 21 of 41 for 295 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. Note that that Ravens have seen the total go OVER in six of their last seven after two or more consecutive SU wins, wile the Browns have seen the total go OVER in three of their last four as a home dog of three points or less. This number is a tad low in our opinion, consider the OVER.
AAA Sports
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PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Falcons vs. Steelers
Falcons+3½ -121
The Steelers are 0-6 ATS (-8.50 ppg) since Nov 26, 2017 as a home favorite
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MARC LAWRENCE
Play - Jacksonville Jaguars (Game 453).
Edges - Jaguars: 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS versus .666 or greater opponents under head coach Doug Marrone; and 6-1 ATS 2nd away game with a .500 or greater record … With the Chiefs off Monday night’s historic come from behind win over division rival Denver, we recommend a 1* play on Jacksonville. Thank you and good luck as always.
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CALVIN KING
MLB | Oct 07, 2018
Brewers vs. Rockies
[1%] Free Play on Rockies -140
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BRANDON LEE
10* NFL FREE PICK (Eagles -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Eagles as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Vikings. I think the combination of Philadelphia not looking great in the first two games since Carson Wentz returned to the lineup and the Vikings getting a few extra days to prepare, plus the revenge angle from last year’s loss in the NFC Championship Game, has created a favorable line to back the Eagles.
With a line of just 3-points, whoever wins the game is more than likely going to be the team that covers. Given that, I don’t know how you bet against Philadelphia at home. The Eagles are perfect 2-0 at home this season and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games overall.
At the same time, the Vikings haven’t looked anything like the dominant team that went 13-3 last year. The defense that led the league in both scoring defense and total defense, comes into this game giving up 27.5 ppg (22nd) and 381.5 ypg (21st). They are still without 2nd-Team All-Pro defensive end Everyone Griffen and I just think people are overlooking how big a loss he is to this unit.
It’s also only a matter of time before Wentz and that Eagles offense find their rhythm. People just expected Wentz and the Eagles offense to return to the form before his injury, but there’s going to be some rust when you have that long of a layoff. There’s been flashes of Wentz returning to that MVP form and I wouldn’t be shocked if he had his best game of 2018 on Sunday.
The other thing here is I think the Eagles defense can make what is already a one-dimensional Vikings offense even more unbalanced. Minnesota is dead last in rushing at 63 ypg and will be up against the league’s best run defense, as Philadelphia is only giving up 63.8 ypg. That’s going to allow this talented Eagles defense to sit back on the pass and as good as Kirk Cousins has been, I think he could struggle, especially in the redzone. It’s really hard to score in this league inside the 20 if the opposing team doesn’t have to respect the run.
I also think too much is played into revenge in the NFL. There’s just not enough games on the schedule to value one more than the other. Some teams just don’t matchup well against others and I think that's the case here. Give me the Eagles -3!
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BLACK WIDOW
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Packers vs. Lions
Lions+1 -115
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
Sunday's FREE NFL WINNER: San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals.
Game 470.
1:25 pm pst.
Without question, the Arizona Cardinals are the worst team in football. They are the only winless team in the NFL, at 0-4. Check out these offensive stats: 'Zona ranks 32nd in Total Yards, 31st in Passing Yards, 31st in Rushing Yards, 32nd in Points Scored, and 32nd in FG%. Guys, they average a dismal, 9.2 PPG. San Francisco comes in here pissed off, after blowing a 9-point lead in their 29-27 loss vs. San Diego LW. CJ Beathard looked very sharp, throwing for almost 300 yards. Expect Matt Breida to make a statement here. He leads the 6th ranked ground attack in the League. But, he ran for a season-low, 39 yards last week.. The RB is salivating, knowing he will be facing the 31st ranked run defense of Arizona. The Road team is 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings in this series. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS the L9 vs. the NFC West and 4-1 ATS the L5 vs. teams with a losing record. The Cardinals are 2-7 ATS the L9 on the road and 1-5 ATS the L6 in October. Always air on the side of caution and buy it down for the extra few pennies. Take San Francisco. Thank you.
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Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY: NY GIANTS/CAROLINA OVER the total of 43½
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Totals4U
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Green Bay/Detroit under 51
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Atlantic Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: New York Giants + 6 1/2
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#1 Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Milwaukee Brewers + 135
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Nevada Sharpshooter
Your free winner for Sunday: Take ARIZONA/SAN FRANCISCO UNDER the total of 40½
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Hawkeye Sports
Early Sunday's Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers + 130
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The Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Sunday: Take LA RAMS/SEATTLE OVER the total of 50
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John Anthony Sports
Early Sunday's Free Selection: Denver Broncos - 1
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CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Bengals
Steelers
Vikings
Cowboys
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Maddux Sports
Today's Free Pick is #462 Pittsburgh -3
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: Pittsburgh -3 Over Atlanta
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, October 7, 2018
NFL (469) ARIZONA CARDINALS VS (470) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Take: (469) ARIZONA CARDINALS
Reason: Your free play for Sunday, October 7, 2018 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers. Your free play is on the Cardinals
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Jeff Allen Sports
Sunday's Free Selection is on the Colorado Rockies
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Roz Wins
Roz's Sunday, October 7, 2018, Free Pick
(453) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS (454) KANSAS CITY
Take : Chiefs
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick the LA Rams/Seattle Game UNDER 50 Points
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Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play for Sunday, October 7, 2018
(465) MIAMI DOLPHINS VS (466) CINCINNATI BENGALS
Take : Bengals
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Easy Money Sports
Lee's Early Sunday Free Selection Is
Miami +6
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Golden Dragon Sports
FREE WINNER for SUNDAY: Atlanta +3
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Arthur Ralph Sports
FREE play Sun Jacksonville +3
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Kenny Towers
FREE PLAY FOR SUNDAY - OAKLAND/LA CHARGERS OVER 52½
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Teyas Sports
FREE PICK 10/7 NFL CINCINNATI OVER 47 1/2
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BIG AL
Our complimentary selection for Sunday, Oct. 7 is:
Toronto Maple Leafs over the Chicago Blackhawks.
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Sports Book Edge
Kevin 'Bubba' Smith
'Railside' Harry MLB Expert
#453/4 Jac Jaguars/KC Chiefs Over
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Priority Sports Info
Roy Maddux
#459 Denver Broncos
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TDS Pucks & Dunks
Sloan Shannon
Home of the Dog Pound
#457 New York Giants
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Billy Irish Picks
Billy Irish
Original Pot of Gold Top Play
#454 Kansas City Chiefs
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Winning Colors Pks
TJ Elliot
Football & Basketball specialist
#451/2 Balt.Ravens/Cl Browns Under
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Todays Round Robin
Harry Walker
Free:#451 Baltimore Ravens
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Golden Locks Sports
#459 Denver Broncos
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Valley Sports
#455 Tennessee Titans
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Vegas Hotsheet
#464 Detroit Lions
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RAY CHADWICK
Time for me to prove my worth, and I do so with my biggest release since joining the site at the end of August.
Since the Los Angeles Rams have scored no less than 33 points in any of their 4 games this year - the last pair easily sailing Over the total, and 7 of their last 9 now in the regular season dating back to last year also Over - I will look for that high-octane offense to keep posting the points, as this L.A.-Seattle meeting plays Over the total.
Since taking over last year, the offensive-minded Sean McVay has seen his team play Over the total in 13 of their 20 regular season contests, including a 42-7 win last year in the Emerald City.
The Seahawks are nowhere near as prolific as their division-rivals, but they are posting just over 3 touchdowns per contest thus far this year. If Russell Wilson can get his team to that number, I feel real good about Jared Goff doing the rest of the "lifting", as this Rams-Seahawks game lands Over the total here on Sunday afternoon.
Los Angeles-Seattle Over.
3* L.A. RAMS-SEATTLE OVER
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CHRIS JORDAN
Let's head to Sunday for my free winner, as I like the New York Jets over the Denver Broncos. Quick disclaimer on the point spread, as I do see some sports books still nursing lines between 2 and 2'. But the line is moving down, and I see enough 1s, that I know that's direction we're headed - for now.
Denver will head east on a short week, for an early-card game, after a disappointing home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night. That's not an easy chore, and I honestly believe the Broncos will still be hungover.
The problem will be its mental game, as the Broncos ran roughshod over Kansas City, but they also ran a mere 22 times and for some odd reason, abandoned their ground game late in the game. Behind Pat Mahomes' left-handed heroics, the Chiefs came from behind in the fourth quarter for a 27-23 victory.
Now the Broncos are two games behind the unbeaten Chiefs, and I think they have bigger problems than deciding whether to stick with the run or not.
Let's face it, Case Keenum isn't the same quarterback who led the Minnesota Vikings to the NFC championship last January. Maybe it is Broncos offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave's system, but so far through one month, Keenum has just three touchdown passes to go with six interceptions with the Broncos.
Last year he threw for 22 touchdowns against just seven interceptions.
While some are praising Keenum because he came close to pulling off his third fourth-quarter comeback for the Broncos, I'm wondering where his poise was when he overthrew a wide-open Demaryius Thomas streaking down the Chiefs sideline with 16 seconds left, in what was probably the most important play of the game.
And he blew it.
The Jets' defense ranks in the upper half of the league defensive stats, allowing 355.5 overall and just 22.22 points per game.
Denver will have trouble in this one, as the Jets roll.
4* JETS
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CHRIS JORDAN
My free play for Sunday is going to be the Cincinnati Bengals, minus the points at home against Miami against the Dolphins. Quick note to everyone, when I loaded my free NFL pick for this week, the analysis was with the play the entire time. See the first sentence that reads My free play for Sunday is going to be the Cincinnati Bengals, and the analysis that follows? It's a good indicator I didn't waste my time writing an entire analysis on the wrong side. I had a typo that read Dolphins, but it was very easy to see the PLAY IS ON THE BENGALS.
Now, back to my analysis... Let's be real everyone, that 3-1 start is a mirage, and Miami is not as good as advertised.
I know Cincinnati has the fourth-worst defense in the league, allowing 419.2 yards per game, and I know it allows the 10th-most points per game, with 28.2. But this is a great spot for the Bengals to improve to 4-1, against a struggling Dolphins team that is battling injuries and was exposed by the New England Patriots last week.
Look for Cincinnati to have its best defensive effort of the week, against an offensive line once touted as one of the best in the league, to battered with three of five starters injured.
The Bengals' momentum after a come-from-behind win against the Atlanta Falcons will carry over, against the embarrassed Dolphins who have been outscored this season 90-82, and outgained by 435 yards.
Miami's offense ranks third-worst in the league, while the secondary is a mess. That helps Cincinnati's passing game, led by quarterback Andy Dalton. The rushing game could flourish, too, as Miami's defensive front four looked lethargic against the Patriots, allowing rookie Sony Michel to run for 112 yards and his first career touchdown.
4* BENGALS
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TOMMY BRUNSON
While Denver gave the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs a real run for their money on Monday, the schedule-makers were most unkind to them as they have them headed out to the east-coast for the second time in the past three weeks to play a Jets team that is starting a three game home-stand off an ugly loss at Jacksonville.
The Broncos went 0-4 against the spread as the road dog last year, failed 2 weeks ago in that role versus Baltimore, and have a 1-10 straight up road mark their last 11 on the highway!
The time is right for the rookie to get his first home win of his career. The Denver defense is no easy task, but they are playing on a short week, and are also playing the "early" game in the east coast time zone with that 1-10 road mark.
This near-pick price is just right for Darnold and the Flyboys to squeak out the field goal win.
Take the J-E-T-S, Jets.
2* N.Y. JETS
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JACK JONES
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Oakland Raiders +5
The Oakland Raiders have been much better than their 1-3 record would suggest. They’ve had a chance to win every game they’ve played this season late into the second half. And now they are catching 5 points here against the Los Angeles Chargers, which I think is simply too much for this division rival.
In Week 1 the Raiders led the Rams 13-10 at halftime before falling apart in the second half. Then they went on the road at Denver in Week 2 and led 19-7 late in the 3rd quarter before eventually losing on a last-second field goal 19-20. In Week 3 they led the Dolphins 17-7 in the 3rd quarter and lost 20-28. Last week they finally got a close win with their 45-42 (OT) victory at home over the Browns.
Just looking at the numbers it’s easy to see that the Raiders are better than their record. They are outgaining opponents by 40 yards per game this season. Their offense has been one of the best in the NFL, averaging 442 yards per game and 6.3 per play. Derek Carr is completing 71% of his passes for 333 yards per game as this is one of the most dynamic passing offenses in the league.
The Raiders should have their way offensively with a Chargers defense that has been awful. They are giving up 30.0 points and 385.0 yards per game this season. The 49ers even scored 27 on them last week with a backup quarterback, and the Bills scored 20 on them. Not to mention the Rams scored 35 and the Chiefs scored 38. With a defense like that, it’s tough to ask them to lay 5 points against almost anyone.
Plus, the Chargers have one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL. They are playing a tiny stadium with few fans, and I actually believe there will likely be more Raiders fans there than Chargers fans. That’s a big reason why the Chargers have been such a terrible bet at home recently, but a great bet on the road.
The Chargers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. Los Angeles is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games following a win. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The underdog is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings. The Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road meetings with the Chargers. Bet the Raiders Sunday.
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DOUG UPSTONE
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Chiefs-3
On Sunday, Play On any team like KANSAS CITY after two consecutive games where they committed no turnovers, against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. In the last nine years, teams like the Chiefs are 24-5 ATS.
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DAVE PRICE
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Vikings vs. Eagles
Vikings+3
1* on Minnesota Vikings +3
The Key: The Vikings went on the road last Thursday and gave the Rams all they wanted in a 31-38 loss as 7-point underdogs. Well, the Rams are the best team in the NFL, and they hung right with them. And now they really need a win as they are 1-2-1 on the season. They should be rested and ready to go after playing last Thursday and getting 3 extra days to prepare for the Eagles. And you can bet they want revenge after losing 7-38 to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, losing the turnover battle 3-0 to essentially give the game away. The Eagles struggled to beat the Colts 20-16 at home and lost to the Titans 23-26 on the road in Carson Wentz’s first two starts back from injury. The Vikings are much better than both those squads, and I like the price we are getting with them here as 3-point road underdogs. Philadelphia is 0-7 ATS vs. teams who give up 6 or more yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Take Minnesota.
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CHASE DIAMOND
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Vikings vs. Eagles
UNDER 47½
This game features the 1-2-1 Vikings and the 2-2 Eagles. Both these defenses are under attack after last weeks poor performance and the public is jumping on this Over and really they have pushed it to the points where it has a ton of value for us. Vikings had one of the top rated defenses heading into this year and really so have the Eagles and on offense the Vikings are without Dalvin Cook again this week and the Eagles offense has looked mediocre all season I think this total is a bit high and we will take it and ride the under here for a 15* winner.
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MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Vikings vs. Eagles
OVER 47
The Minnesota Vikings are winless through their last three games and allowed at least 27 points in each of those contests. Their defense was shredded for 556 total yards in a 38-31 loss at LA Rams last week and I think we'll see another high-scoring game involving the Vikes when they visit the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field Sunday afternoon.
Note that the last time these two teams squrared off in the NFC Championship Game the Eagles piled up 456 yards of total offense.
The reining Super Bowl champions Philadelphia has split its first four games of the season and has been rather vulnerable against the pass. The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL with 327.3 passing yards per game and Kirk Cousins has thrown has 12 TD passes with only three interceptions in four career meetings at Philadelphia.
Free pick on OVER.
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STEVE JANUS
1* Free Sharp Play on Dolphins +6 -109
My money is on the Dolphins to cover the spread against the Bengals on Sunday. Miami is getting no love off that ugly loss ta New England in Week 4, despite the fact that they opened the season 3-0. This is a good team and one that is showing a ton of value here as a near touchdown dog against the Bengals. Cincinnati has got off to an impressive 3-1 start and are fresh off a last-second win at Atlanta. Tough spot for the Bengals off that big win and massive games on deck with the Steelers coming to town in Week 6 and then going to Kansas City in Week 7. This is also a much more evenly matched game than the books are leading on, as Miami is more than capable of winning this game outright. Bet the Dolphins +6!
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VIC DUKE
NFL | Oct 07, 2018
Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Jaguars+3
Jaguars/Chiefs 1:00: Chiefs coming off huge come from behind victory in Denver on MNF. They're operating on a short week and will face the NFL's #1 defense in terms of allowing yards and points. Yes, Mahomes is now a household name and breaking passing records every week. And surely Kelce, Hunt and Hill are a dangerous trio to contain; nevertheless, Jaguars' corners Ramsey and Bouye no joke in a well disciplined secondary. On the other hand, not a fan of the Chiefs' defense that allows 452 YPG! Jax may be without Fournette (hamstring) but T.J. Yeldon is a viable replacement to help Bortles turn up his game. Road team is 4-1 ATS in this series and we'll grab Marrone and his boys here.
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BRANDON LEE
10* NFL FREE PICK (Eagles -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Eagles as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Vikings. I think the combination of Philadelphia not looking great in the first two games since Carson Wentz returned to the lineup and the Vikings getting a few extra days to prepare, plus the revenge angle from last year’s loss in the NFC Championship Game, has created a favorable line to back the Eagles.
With a line of just 3-points, whoever wins the game is more than likely going to be the team that covers. Given that, I don’t know how you bet against Philadelphia at home. The Eagles are perfect 2-0 at home this season and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games overall.
At the same time, the Vikings haven’t looked anything like the dominant team that went 13-3 last year. The defense that led the league in both scoring defense and total defense, comes into this game giving up 27.5 ppg (22nd) and 381.5 ypg (21st). They are still without 2nd-Team All-Pro defensive end Everyone Griffen and I just think people are overlooking how big a loss he is to this unit.
It’s also only a matter of time before Wentz and that Eagles offense find their rhythm. People just expected Wentz and the Eagles offense to return to the form before his injury, but there’s going to be some rust when you have that long of a layoff. There’s been flashes of Wentz returning to that MVP form and I wouldn’t be shocked if he had his best game of 2018 on Sunday.
The other thing here is I think the Eagles defense can make what is already a one-dimensional Vikings offense even more unbalanced. Minnesota is dead last in rushing at 63 ypg and will be up against the league’s best run defense, as Philadelphia is only giving up 63.8 ypg. That’s going to allow this talented Eagles defense to sit back on the pass and as good as Kirk Cousins has been, I think he could struggle, especially in the redzone. It’s really hard to score in this league inside the 20 if the opposing team doesn’t have to respect the run.
I also think too much is played into revenge in the NFL. There’s just not enough games on the schedule to value one more than the other. Some teams just don’t matchup well against others and I think that's the case here. Give me the Eagles -3!
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Life's a Gamble
NFL BALTIMORE RAVENS ‑3 ‑115
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ERIC SCHROEDER
My free play for Sunday is going to be the Cincinnati Bengals, minus the points at home against Miami against the Dolphins. Quick note to everyone, when I loaded my free NFL pick for this week, the analysis was with the play the entire time. See the first sentence that reads My free play for Sunday is going to be the Cincinnati Bengals, and the analysis that follows? It's a good indicator I didn't waste my time writing an entire analysis on the wrong side. I had a typo that read Dolphins, but it was very easy to see the PLAY IS ON THE BENGALS.
Now, back to my analysis... Let's be real everyone, that 3-1 start is a mirage, and Miami is not as good as advertised.
I know Cincinnati has the fourth-worst defense in the league, allowing 419.2 yards per game, and I know it allows the 10th-most points per game, with 28.2. But this is a great spot for the Bengals to improve to 4-1, against a struggling Dolphins team that is battling injuries and was exposed by the New England Patriots last week.
Look for Cincinnati to have its best defensive effort of the week, against an offensive line once touted as one of the best in the league, to battered with three of five starters injured.
The Bengals' momentum after a come-from-behind win against the Atlanta Falcons will carry over, against the embarrassed Dolphins who have been outscored this season 90-82, and outgained by 435 yards.
Miami's offense ranks third-worst in the league, while the secondary is a mess. That helps Cincinnati's passing game, led by quarterback Andy Dalton. The rushing game could flourish, too, as Miami's defensive front four looked lethargic against the Patriots, allowing rookie Sony Michel to run for 112 yards and his first career touchdown.
4* BENGALS
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VIP Sports Picks Las Vegas
NFL DETROIT LIONS ‑1
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Brand X Sports
NFL BALTIMORE RAVENS ‑130
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Mikey Money
NFL GREEN BAY PACKERS ‑110
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NHL LOS ANGELES KINGS ‑180
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NHL LOS ANGELES KINGS ‑180
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Power Play Wins
NHL TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS ‑145
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NFL MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3.5
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