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NCAAFB: Betting Recap - Week 4

NCAAFB: Betting Recap - Week 4 3 weeks 4 days ago #490818

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 9/24/18
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NCAAFB: Betting Recap - Week 4 3 weeks 4 days ago #490819

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Betting Recap - Week 4
September 23, 2018
By Joe Williams


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Old Dominion (+28.5, ML +2000) vs. Virginia Tech, 49-35
Texas Tech (+14.5, ML +500) at Oklahoma State,
Kentucky (+10, ML +300) vs. Mississippi State, 28-7

The largest favorites to cover
Houston (-55.5) vs. Texas Southern, 70-14
Appalachian State (-44) vs. Gardner-Webb, 72-7
Ohio State (-38) vs. Tulane, 49-6
Auburn (-29.5) vs. Arkansas, 34-3

Top 25 Notes

-- The best game of the day took place in Eugene, as Stanford and Oregon played a classic. The Ducks built a 24-7 lead at halftime, but the second half was all Cardinal. Oregon had the ball in the red zone late in the third quarter, trying to make it 31-7. Instead, Joey Alfieri scooped up a fumble and returned it 80 yards for a momentum-changing TD, slicing Oregon's lead to 24-14. Another quick TD near the end of the third made it 24-21. Ducks' moneyline bettors knew it was coming, as the Cardinals posted a field goal at :00 in regulation to force OT. That was also good for a bad beat on the total (see below). The Cardinal finished off the overtime with a TD, winning 38-31 for a miracle cover, too.
-- Ohio State got Urban Meyer back on the sidelines after his three-game suspension, and it was like he never left. They whipped up on Tulane, 49-6. The Buckeyes moved to 3-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS at the Horseshoe. The most notable part of this game might have been a bad beat involving the total. Again, see below.

-- Virginia Tech rolled into the Hampton Roads looking to squash winless Old Dominion, a side which entered 0-3 SU/ATS. The Hokies tied the game late, making it 35-35, but the Monarchs picked up a pair of touchdowns late to spring the huge upset, the first win over a Power 5 team in school history.

-- West Virginia had two weeks off to prepare for Kansas State after having last week's road trip to N.C. State canceled due to Hurricane Florence. They looked rested, as they humbled K-State by a 35-6 score in Morgantown. The Mountaineers improved to 3-0 SU/ATS.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- North Carolina surprised Pittsburgh 38-35 in Chapel Hill, as the two-week break from Hurricane Florence did them some good. The Panthers slipped to 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS. ... Virginia posted an impressive 27-3 win at home against Louisville, improving to 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS. ... N.C. State took care of Marshall by a 37-20 count, covering a six-point number on the road. The Wolfpack are now 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, and they were another team looking well prepared after a week off thanks to the hurricane.

-- Michigan roughed up Nebraska 56-10 in the Big House, dropping the Cornhuskers to 0-3 for the first time since 1945. The honeymoon might be over for Scott Frost at his alma mater. As far as the Wolverines are concerned, they're now 3-0/2-1 ATS in their three games since being dropped by Notre Dame in their opener. ... Meanwhile, Michigan State cooled off Indiana at 'The Rock' by a 35-21 score, covering for the first time in three games this season. ... For anyone expecting Rutgers to be better this season...nah. Tgey were roughed up by Buffalo 42-13, falling to 0-3 SU/ATS over the past three.

-- Iowa State handed Akron its first loss of the season, 26-13. However, the Zips were able to cover a 19 1/2-point number, moving to 2-0 ATS in their two games against FBS schools. The Cyclones slipped to 1-2 ATS in their three games to date. ... TCU dropped their second straight outing, falling to Texas for the first time in four years. The 'Horns have won three in a row, and covered each of their past two, both at home. ... It was exactly 11 years to the day since Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy's "I'm a man...I'm 40" rant, and the opponent that day was Texas Tech. The two sides played again, and the Red Raiders were able to come away with a much-needed 41-17 win in Stillwater, winning and covering for the third straight after getting whipped in their opener.

-- Washington held off a spirited charge from Arizona State, winning 27-20. The Sun Devils easily covered the 18-point number, moving to 9-0 ATS in their past nine trips to Seattle and 16-2-2 ATS in the past 20 meetings in this series overall. ... On Friday night it was USC earning a feel-good win at home against Washington State, 39-36, although the Cougars were able to hang on for the cover. While the Trojans squared their record at 2-2 SU, they slipped to 0-4 ATS.

-- Tennessee was horrific in their rivalry game against Florida, falling in front of the restless natives at Neyland Stadium by a 47-21 count as the Gators were able to take care of the 'over' (46.5) themselves. ... Auburn showed why they were favorites by 29 1/2 over Arkansas, as the Razorbacks really are that bad. The Hogs have dropped three in a row, slipping to 1-3 SU/0-3-1 ATS. The 'under' has also cashed in three in a row for Arkansas. ... Kentucky picked up a 28-7 win against No. 14 Mississippi State, improving to 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS. The Wildcats have scored 27 or more points in all four games this season. Might Kentucky football be headed for a ranking for the first time since 2007?

Mid-Major Report

-- UCF beat down visiting Florida Atlantic on Friday by a 56-36 score, easily covering by pulling away in the second half. The Owls slipped to 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS so far. ... Connecticut was tripped up 51-21 in Syracuse, dropping the Huskies to 1-3 SU/0-3-1 ATS. The 'under' result against the Orange was the first of the season for UConn after three straight overs. ... East Carolina picked up its second consecutive cover, playing South Florida tough in a 20-13 loss in Tampa.

-- Louisiana Tech gave LSU all they could handle, slicing the lead of the Tigers to 24-21 in the fourth quarter before the home team pulled away to win by 17. The Bulldogs have now hit the 'over' in each of their three games this season. ... Western Kentucky surprised Ball State by a 28-20 score for their first win of the season. They improved to 3-1 ATS, however, with the 'under' also 3-1 through four outings. ... Florida International slipped to 2-2 SU with a loss at Miami-Florida, but the Golden Panthers improved to 4-0 ATS.

-- Eastern Michigan played their hearts out, but they fell at San Diego State in overtime by a 23-20 count. The Eagles improved to 3-1 ATS, however. ... For Ball State, while they lost, they have been helpful at the betting window to total bettors. The 'under' is now 4-0. ... Speaking of totals, Ohio has hit the 'over' in all three of their contests so far.

-- Utah State rolled past Air Force 42-32 to improve to 4-0 ATS overall on the season. The 'over' is also 4-0 for the Aggies. ... Colorado State continues to baffle, as they fell at home to FCS Illinois State to slip to 1-4 SU/ATS. The 'under' is also 4-1 overall for the Rams. ... The Aztecs squeaked out the win over EMU in overtime, but they slipped to 1-3 ATS overall on the season. The 'under' is also 3-1 for San Diego State so far.

-- Appalachian State has posted a perfect 3-0 ATS mark so far through three outings. ... South Alabama took it on the chin to slip to 1-3 SU/2-1-1 ATS. The Jaguars have been a favorite for total bettors, however, as the 'over' is now a perfect 4-0 for USA. ... Troy hung on for a 35-27 victory at Louisiana-Monroe, earning the road cover. The Trojans led 35-7 at halftime, but gave side bettors a little heart failure by getting outscored 20-0 in the second half.

Bad Beats

-- The Buckeyes were winning 43-7 in the fourth quarter, failing to cover a 36 1/2-point number. They turned it over on downs deep in Green Wave territory midway through the final quarter, and it appeared favorite bettors were going to lose. However it was Tulane bettors taking it in the shorts, as the Buckeyes scored with 1:01 remaining to flip the line in favor of the favorites.

-- Oregon side bettors and moneyline bettors were feeling good about themselves for a good chunk of regulation. Stanford stormed back and forced OT, booting a field goal with :00 left in regulation. That changed the total from a push (59) to an over. Then the Cardinal scored a TD in the extra session for the miracle cover.

-- Cincinnati fell behind 21-0 against Ohio, and moneyline bettors for the Bobcats were feeling good. However, the Bearcats took their first lead with 3:24 to go in regulation to dash the dreams of ML bettors for OU.

-- Miami (Ohio)-Bowling Green had a total of (54.5), and the Falcons scored a TD with 5:34 to go to cut the Redhawks' lead to 31-10. 'Under' bettors appeared to be in good shape still, but BSU scored again with 4:13 to go, then Miami scored with :34 left to push it over. With no time left in regulation, the Falcons added a TD for good measure, scoring 27 points total in the final 5:34.
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