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NFL: Betting Recap - Week 3

NFL: Betting Recap - Week 3 3 weeks 4 days ago #490816

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 9/24/18
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NFL: Betting Recap - Week 3 3 weeks 4 days ago #490817

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Betting Recap - Week 3
September 24, 2018
By Joe Williams

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bills (+17, ML +1000) at Vikings, 27-6
Titans (+10, ML +400) at Jaguars, 9-6
Lions (+7, ML +280) vs. Patriots, 26-10
Giants (+6, ML +230) at Texans, 27-22

The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-7) vs. Chargers, 35-23
Chiefs (-6) vs. 49ers, 38-27
Ravens (-5.5) vs. Broncos, 27-14
Browns (-3) vs. Jets, 21-17
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders, 28-20

Miami Nice

-- The Miami Dolphins have fired out to a 3-0 SU/ATS record after topping the Oakland Raiders by a 28-20 score. The Dolphins have been particularly solid at home, averaging 27.5 points per game (PPG) while allowing 20.0 PPG, and the 'over' has connected in each of their two at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins hold a two-game lead on everyone in the AFC East Division through three weeks and they can take a commanding lead with a win in Week 4 on the road against the New England Patriots, who limp home from the Motor City on a two-game losing streak.

Shuffled Back To Buffalo

-- The Buffalo Bills had been atrocious through the first two weeks, and they entered Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings as a 17-point underdog. Those playing survivor pools were certainly not pleased with the result, and any chalk eaters brave enough to lay the points knew they had a losing ticket early on. The Bills had allowed 39.0 PPG through their first two games, so no one could have seen their stark turnaround coming against a team expected to contend for the Super Bowl. Their beleaguered defense stepped up and held the Vikings to just six points while scoring a season-high 27 points. They had managed a total of 23 points over their first two contests.

Total Recall

-- The five lowest totals on the board all cashed the 'under' this week, as defense reigned surpreme. The lowest total, Chicago-Arizona (39), ended up with a total of just 30 points. The Cardinals fired out of the box with 14 points in the first quarter, but put up goose eggs in their final three quarters. The Tennessee-Jacksonville (39.5) contest was expected to be a defensive battle, but the Titans and Jags took it to the extreme. QB Blaine Gabbert exacted revenge against his former team in a 9-6 slugfest, the lowest-scoring game of the season in the NFL so far. Dallas-Seattle (40), Buffalo-Minnesota (41) and N.Y. Jets-Cleveland (41) each ended up going well under.

-- The highest total on the board in Week 3 was the Sunday Night Football game which was expected to be a shootout, but it never came into fruition. New England-Detroit (55.5) ended up not even coming close to the set total, as the Lions limited the Patriots in a 26-10 victor. The same couldn't said for the other two 50-plus games on the board, as New Orleans-Atlanta (54) and San Francisco-Kansas City (53.5) were both slam-dunk 'over' plays.

-- The 'over' has cashed in all three games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals, Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are the only three teams in the AFC with a 3-0 'over' mark so far. In the AFC South, the 'under' is 2-1 in for all four teams. In the NFC, the only team to hit the over in each of their three games is the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, the under is 3-0 for the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys.

-- There are two primetime games in the books so far in Week 3, with the under cashing in both. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 3-6 (33.3%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bengals WR A.J. Green (groin) left Sunday's game at Carolina due to a groin injury, but he feels he'll be ready for Week 4.

-- 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) is believed to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament on a non-contact situation in Kansas City late in the game.

-- Giants TE Evan Engram (knee) was knocked out of the Week 3 victory in Houston due to a knee injury and he was unable to return.

-- Patriots RB Rex Burkhead (neck) suffered a neck injury in the third quarter of the game in Detroit and he was unable to return.

-- Titans QB Blaine Gabbert (concussion) started against his former team, but he was knocked out, forcing QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) into action.

Looking Ahead

-- The winless Texans will head to Indianapolis to battle the Colts in Week 4. Over the years it hasn't been a great place for Houston to visit, as they're 2-7 SU in their past 10 visits while going 3-5-1 ATS. The 'under' has also cashed in each of the past nine meetings in Indianapolis.

-- The Patriots host the Dolphins on Sunday. Miami hasn't won in Foxboro since Sept. 21, 2008, losing nine straight trips. The Patriots are 7-2 ATS during the nine-game home win streak against the Dolphins, including covers in each of the past six meetings in New England. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings in Foxboro, too.
-- The Cardinals and Seahawks meet in Arizona, and the home team has really struggled in this series. Arizona is 0-4-1 SU/ATS across their past five home games against Seattle with the 'under' cashing in each of the past three meetings in the desert. In this series, the home team is just 1-8-1 SU across the past 10 meetings.

-- The Steelers will host the Ravens in Week 4, and there has been a huge home-field advantage in this series. The home team has won eight of the past 10 meetings in this series, although Pittsburgh is 0-2-1 ATS in the past three at Heinz Field. The 'over' has also cashed in three of the past four meetings at Heinz Field.
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