Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 9/24/18
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview and Predictions 09-24-2018 in NFL
NFL Previews 21st September 2018 by Gracenote
Steelers vs. Buccaneers Preview and Predictions
by Gracenote on 09/21/2018
It hardly has been a smooth start for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have yet to crack the win column and been embroiled in controversy swirling around the team's top offensive playmakers. The Steelers will face a red-hot quarterback for the second time in as many weeks when they visit Ryan Fitzpatrick and the undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.
Star running back Le'Veon Bell continues to be a holdout for Pittsburgh while All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown caused a stir for being a no-show one day after last week's 42-37 home loss to Kansas City. "It has to die," Steelers guard Ramon Foster told reporters regarding the off-field distractions. "Way too much stuff going on not to learn from this. Nobody is invincible. Nobody is shunned from any bad things happening, whether that's on the field or off the field." The surprising Buccaneers already have knocked off a pair of 2017 playoff teams behind fill-in quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is the first player to open the season with consecutive 400-yard, four-touchdown performances. "His numbers are off the charts," Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter told reporters. "So how would you expect everybody to respond? Of course, our team is playing well. They're doing something not many thought they could."
TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Steelers -1.5. O/U: 53.5
ABOUT THE STEELERS (0-1-1): Despite the absence of Bell and Brown's brief walkout, leading to disciplinary action from coach Mike Tomlin, Pittburgh's biggest issues are on the other side of the ball. After failing to protect a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead en route to a tie at Cleveland in the season opener, the Steelers were carved up by Kansas City and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 326 yards and six touchdowns in Sunday's shootout. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger rebounded from a five-turnover debacle in Week 1 by throwing for 452 yards and three scores last weekend - with JuJu Smith-Schuster hauling in 13 passes for 121 yards and a TD. Running back James Conner was limited to 17 yards on eight carries last week after rumbling for 135 and two touchdowns in Week 1.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEEERS (2-0): Fitzpatrick was supposed to simply mind the store while starting quarterback Jameis Winston was serving a three-game suspension to open the season, but after throwing for eight touchdowns and a league-high 819 yards, the job is his - for now. "With the way the team is rallying behind him and just playing lights-out football, you have to kind of honor it," wideout DeSean Jackson, who has nine receptions for 275 yards and three touchdowns through two games, told reporters. "You can't take the hot man out. You got the hot fire right now." Mike Evans has been the favorite target of Fitzpatrick with 17 catches for 230 yards and two scores. Tampa Bay's defense received a boost when defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul and cornerback Brent Grimes were full participants in Friday's practice.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Fitzpatrick is bidding to become the first QB in NFL history with at least 400 passing yards in three straight games.
2. Brown, who made nine catches in each of the first two contests, has 70 receptions and seven TDs in his last eight games versus NFC foes.
3. Tampa Bay rookie DT Vita Vea, the team's first-round draft pick, could make his NFL debut.
PREDICTION: Steelers 30, Buccaneers 26
__________________
Steelers (0-1-1) @ Buccaneers (2-0)— Fitzpatrick is 48-61 for 819 yards, eight TD’s as Tampa Bay is 2-0 for first time since 2010. This is last game of Winston’s suspension; does Fitzpatrick do enough to keep starting job? Bucs scored 75 points in winning first two games, averaging 14.9/11.2 yards/pass attempt, outrageous numbers- five of their nine TD’s were on plays of 36+ yards. Steelers scored 58 points in first two games but are 0-1-1, allowing 42 second half points (42-30)- they may have internal issues, with Bell holding out and Brown missing Monday’s meetings. Since 2013, Pitt is 14-19 as road favorites. Pitt won eight of 10 series games, five of six played here; Bucs won last meeting 28-24 @ Heinz Field in ’14.
MNF - Steelers at Buccaneers
September 22, 2018
By Kevin Rogers
The Steelers (0-1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) haven’t gone winless through the first three weeks of the season since starting 0-3 in 2013. That Pittsburgh team didn’t pick up its first victory until Week 6 as it managed to finish at 8-8 that season. The Steelers squandered a 21-7 lead to the Browns in Week 1 before finishing in a tie, while erasing a 21-0 deficit to even things up with the Chiefs last week. Pittsburgh couldn’t get over the hump as the Steelers fell, 42-37 as four-point favorites.
Running back Le’Veon Bell sat out for the second straight week as he continues to hold out, while James Conner couldn’t duplicate his 135 yard performance in Week 1 by rushing for only 17 yards against Kansas City. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger finished with 452 yards passing and three touchdowns, as all three touchdown tosses came in the first half. However, the Steelers lost their first home opener since that fateful start of 2013 as Pittsburgh allowed at least 42 points in consecutive games at Heinz Field going back to the 45-42 shootout loss to the Jaguars in the AFC divisional round in January.
The Buccaneers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) weren’t expected to do much offensively in the first two weeks as starting quarterback Jameis Winston began a three-game suspension. However, the Harvard man came to the rescue as veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick diced up a pair of playoff teams in the first two weeks. After lighting up the Saints for 417 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-40 opening week shocker, Fitzpatrick put an encore in the home opener against the defending champion Eagles.
Fitzpatrick connected with speedster DeSean Jackson on a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play of scrimmage, while also hooking up with tight end O.J. Howard on another 75-yard scoring connection. The Bucs jumped out to a 27-7 advantage before holding on for a 27-21 win over Philadelphia to cash as three-point underdogs. Fitzpatrick eclipsed the 400-yard mark for the second straight week by throwing for 402 and four more touchdowns, as he leads the league in passing yards and is second in touchdown passes behind Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes.
HOME LOSS BOUNCE-BACK
The Steelers have done a solid job over the years coming off a home loss, owning an 8-1 record since 2013 in this situation. Last season, Pittsburgh lost twice at home in the regular season, falling to Jacksonville and the disputed finish to New England. In each instance, the Steelers rebounded with a win at Kansas City and at Houston, while the only loss in the situation came in 2016 at Baltimore following a home defeat to New England. From a totals standpoint, the UNDER has hit five straight times when the Steelers play on the road following a home defeat dating back to 2015.
BARKING ‘DOGS AT THE PIRATE SHIP
Although Tampa Bay is a slight underdog on Monday night, the Bucs have taken care of business when receiving points at Raymond James Stadium. In the last six instances 2016, the Bucs are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a home underdog, coming off last week’s mild upset of the Eagles. Last season, Tampa Bay lost in close contests to the Patriots and Falcons, but managed a cover as seven-point underdogs in a 27-24 defeat to Atlanta.
SERIES HISTORY
The last time these teams met up back in 2014 at Heinz Field, as the Buccaneers picked up a 27-24 triumph as seven-point underdogs. Tampa Bay entered the contest at 0-3 and ultimately finished that season at 2-14, but came out on top thanks to a Mike Glennon five-yard touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson with seven seconds remaining. Roethlisberger hooked up with Antonio Brown for a pair of touchdown connections, but Pittsburgh suffered its first loss to Tampa Bay since 1998.
In the previous matchup at Raymond James Stadium in 2010 (also in Week 3), the Steelers cruised past the Bucs, 38-13 as 2 ½-point favorites. Roethlisberger was in the midst of a four-game suspension as Charlie Batch threw three touchdown passes, while Pittsburgh scored three touchdowns in the second quarter.
MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
The Steelers have won four consecutive Monday night games (not including a Christmas Day victory at Houston last season) since 2014. The last three instances have come on the road at the Chargers (2015), Redskins (2016), and Bengals (2017), but failed to cover at Cincinnati in a 23-20 win as 4 ½-point favorites.
Tampa Bay has been showcased on Monday night football three times since 2013, all in the underdog role. In all three instances, the Bucs have covered, while picking up outright victories over Miami in 2013 and Carolina in 2016.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says that the Buccaneers are in a good spot for now, but the road doesn’t ease up, “Needless to say Fitzpatrick will likely maintain the starting role past Winston’s suspension, but it is too soon to count Tampa Bay as a serious NFC championship threat. The division is stacked with three other viable playoff threats and the schedule remains difficult with road games in Chicago and Atlanta surrounding a Week 5 bye week.”
Will there be a bunch of points scored since the two teams have combined for a 3-1 OVER record? “While the attention will be on the offenses, the defenses have surrendered big numbers as well, both in the bottom eight of the league in total defense and in the bottom six of scoring defense. One big disparity is Tampa Bay featuring currently one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 67 rushing yards per game while Pittsburgh ranks 30th allowing 152 rushing yards per game. It seems likely that over time those numbers will adjust towards the middle as the Steelers have mostly played from behind while the Buccaneers have mostly played with a lead so far this season,” Nelson notes.
LINE MOVEMENT
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook opened the Steelers as a three-point road favorite, but that number has dipped down to 1 ½ at most books. Due to the numbers put up by Fitzpatrick and Roethlisberger through two weeks, the total sits between 53 ½ and 54 at most spots. The Steelers last saw a road total of 50 or above in the 2015 season opener at New England in which it lost, 28-21. Under Dirk Koetter, the Bucs are 3-1 to the UNDER on totals of 50 or higher with the lone OVER hitting in Week 1 at New Orleans.